Sebagaimana rilis catatan kami sebelumnya pada 11 April tentang *yield stress test <http://tinyurl.com/6rx5gme>* J.P. Morgan ("JPM") terhadap saham-saham Indo Banks, untuk kesempatan kedua hari ini, JPM kembali mengeluarkan *alert* yang mengindikasikan *start* rotasi keluar dari saham-saham perbankan sebelum pada akhirnya rekomendasi spesifik *Underweight / Sell *dikeluarkan.
Dalam rilis riset hari ini yang berjudul *Indonesia & Philippine Banks*, sebagaimana Anda sudah dapat menebak dari judul, JPM lebih memilih prospek dan potensi emiten perbankan Filipina dibandingkan Indonesia. JPM dalam kesimpulannya menyatakan: *We stay cautious on Indonesia, but that view is now consensus. Unlike the Phils, we see ROE compression in the medium term alongside rising liquidity constraints, particularly as BI guides the economy towards higher leverage.* Pandangan di atas sejalan dengan teropong kewaspadaan terhadap kondisi moneter melalui rilis riset *Indonesia Equity Strategy* 13 April, di mana JPM mencatat sektor perbankan dan industri otomotif harus disikapi penuh kehatian: *Macro Talk: Notes from BI/Finance Ministry Call - Bank Spread Pressure & Car subsidy ban phase in* Key points picked up on a Finance Ministry/Central Bank hosted call were a) the Central Bank’s bias has shifted to tightening, but it appears reluctant to raise rates. b) BI intends to continue to pressure bank spreads. c) The BoP dipped into a deficit in 1Q but is expected to recover for the full year on capital flows. d) Fuel subsidy cuts remain on the agenda. Bias is now for tightening, but rates may not increase: BI Deputy Governor Halim Alamsyah clarified that although BI did not raise rates, the fact that they auctioned 20% more securities than they targeted was a signal that BI "was entering a tightening bias". He did however comment that even if fuel prices were raised, looking at future inflation they believe (given current conditions) that the current policy of 5.75% could remain stable. *JPM Comment:* *Investor feedback predominantly registers concern on the risk of inordinately accommodative monetary policy. Hawkish comments therefore should provide some comfort.* Push to compress bank spreads will continue: BI also clearly articulated that “macro” focus was on policy rates, the “micro” focus was to continue to “increase the efficiency of the banking sector” with efficiency defined as “a reduction in the spread between the lending and deposit rate”. A direct question on possible "tiered reserves" for banks was skirted. *JPM Comment:* *We believe that while investors are now cognizant of the risks to Banks, policy stance could continue to constrain sector PBV (2.6x 12M fwd) from rerating substantially higher.* Private car subsidy phase out to start in May: Finance Ministry officials mentioned “June-August” more than once as a timeframe for a fuel price increase. They also said they Indonesia would gradually limit subsidized fuel consumption starting in May, by restricting sales of subsidized gasoline to cars of engine size >2,000cc in Java and Bali. *JPM Comment:* *News reports (Bloomberg) suggested that the new* *system could ultimately extend to vehicles of 1.3l or more. We continue to monitor developments, given past difficulties in executing similar ** proposals.* -- '+' Follow positif01indo on Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/positif01indo Persetujuan *request followers* baru diberikan hanya satu kali tiap akhir kuartal maks 500 *request */ diskresi kami.
