haiya ini ga jelas, buy komo atau sahamnya? di luar saham komo emang rebound, di indo bisa kena dampak pajak ekspor, udah dikalkulasi CS belon nih?
--- In [email protected], positif01 <positif01@...> wrote: > > *As seen on our tweet:* > > [image: Inline image 2] > > Dalam rilis riset terbarunya, Credit Suisse ("CS") menegaskan kepada para > investornya untuk segera bersiap mencuri *start*dengan reposisi terhadap > aset-aset beresiko yang berhubungan dengan komoditas. Pada prinsipnya CS > berkeyakinan bahwa level *global demand* terhadap komoditas memang tinggi. > Pasar telah terlalu fokus terhadap *weakening developed market* yang juga > akan *strongly rebound* dan melupakan kekuatan *demand emerging market* yang > telah membuktikan bahwa*output gap* tidak terjadi. > > [image: Inline image 1] > > CS memutuskan untuk menaikkan target harga Brent *crude oi*l 2012 menjadi > US$125/bbl, dan untuk 2013/2014 masing-masing US$132,5 dan US$135. > > CS: > > *â We find that the recent increase in commodity prices (and for > that matter the S&P 500) is in line with historical experience. This is in * > *large part because in our view an objective assessment of the data shows > that rather than being weak, as is the default starting **point for many at > present, the level of global demand is strong.* > * > * > *â With global growth likely to move above average over coming months, we > think that markets will tighten further over the course **of 2012, with the > rebound led by the US and China. Rather than a Chinese âhard landing,â to > us the greater risk is that Chinese **growth rebounds more than currently > anticipated.* > * > * > *â That would see markets tighten substantially (the world needs below > average Chinese growth to allow the US to gradually close its output gap) > and lead to another significant bout of commodity price > inflationâ"commodities are currently the effective speed limit for global > growth.* > * > * > *â After rallying significantly over recent months, we believe the price > of Brent oil is likely to creep up further in H2, with the risks firmly to > the upside (supply disruptions). Many industrial metals are also likely > to continue to rally over the course of the year, with palladium having **the > largest upside potential. Gold should continue to trend higher for a time, > but may start to peak around the middle of 2013.* > * > * > *Against this backdrop:* > * > * > *â Rather than falling, as risk premiums fade we expect Brent oil prices to > move a little higher over coming quarters as oil demand growth **picks up. > While, absent a supply shock, we donât expect prices to surpass the 2008 > peaks (which would be necessary for oil to become **a large drag on global > growth), the risks to supply remain numerous, pointing to substantial > upside risks, and unfortunately placing an oil **spike at the top of our > macro risks to the global outlook;* > * > * > *â Absent unforeseen supply events, palladium remains our best pick, with > continued growth in auto production in China and the US in **particular > likely pushing prices higher over 2012;* > * > * > *â In bulk commodities, iron ore stands to make further gains as > steel production run rates gather pace in China in H2.Thermal coal too **should > reverse some of the recent weakness seen as a consequence of extra > available supply and an unexpectedly mild **northern winter;* > * > * > *â The base metals are also likely to continue to unwind the falls seen > last year, although it is unlikely that any of the major metals **will > revisit the 2011 highs this year, with high copper inventories in China > likely limiting the upward movement in H2;* > * > * > *â Gold is likely to remain on its decade-long uptrend for another year or > so; although a ânormalizingâ global economy suggests that **the peak could > occur early in 2013; and* > * > * > *â The grains are likely to move sideways to down over 2012, > barring another weather event.* > * > * > *(This is an extract from CS commodities quarterly, > Trading Recommendations: The Pause That Refreshes â¦, published on 13 **April > 2012.* > -- > '+' > > Follow positif01indo on Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/positif01indo > > Persetujuan *request followers* baru diberikan hanya satu kali tiap akhir > kuartal maks 500 *request */ diskresi kami. > ------------------------------------ Kunjungi situs http://www.info-saham.com untuk informasi seputar saham. 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