BAGHDAD, Iraq, Oct. 1 - In late September, 10 days after
American and Iraqi troops swept into Tal Afar to clear it of insurgent fighters,
six trucks drove into the city. The drivers distributed food, water and
emergency medical supplies. They also told the grateful refugees whom to thank:
the former prime minister, Ayad Allawi, and his party, the Iraqi National
Accord.
Iraq's next election season has begun and
Mr. Allawi, a former exile and American protégé, is barnstorming the region and
seeking support for a broad new secular alliance that could sweep him back to
power when votes are cast Dec. 15. His goal is to create a political center that
would displace the sectarian agendas of the competing religious
parties.
"We are getting all the liberal
democratic forces together as a secular movement because we feel that these
forces are the only ones who will be able to unite the country," Mr. Allawi said
during a recent interview in his London offices.
It is a message certain to appeal to the
Bush administration, which has seen its vision for a unified Iraq fracture along
sectarian lines over the past few months, and which still has a powerful
influence. The message may also appeal to middle-class Iraqis, many of whom
lament the loss of the secularism of the era of Saddam Hussein and accuse the
governing Shiite religious parties of deepening Iraq's divisions.
Mr. Allawi's nascent campaign is the
latest chapter in an effort that spans decades. He returned to Iraq in 2003,
along with other American-backed exiles. After his rival, Ahmad Chalabi, fell
out of favor last year, Mr. Allawi was chosen as transitional prime minister by
the Americans. Months later, Mr. Allawi watched as a Shiite political alliance -
including Mr. Chalabi - swept Iraq's first free elections, leaving the Iraqi
National Accord with only 40 of the National Assembly's 275 seats.
The coming election could be different.
The Shiite alliance that won a majority of seats in January appears to be
falling apart, torn by internal rivalries. The Shiite cleric whose blessing
helped win votes for the alliance last time, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has
said he will not favor any particular group.
But the obstacles are daunting, and
include Mr. Allawi's history as a C.I.A. favorite and the difficulties of
secular campaigns in Iraq. Mr. Allawi had planned a "national unity" conference
in Baghdad to unite moderate parties, with simultaneous satellite meetings in
two other Iraqi cities. But all three events were postponed because of security
concerns.
Some of Mr. Allawi's rivals, meanwhile,
reach thousands every week at Friday Prayer, in a grass-roots network that
secular candidates cannot match. Religious zealots like the Shiite cleric
Moktada al-Sadr have a vast following among the young and poor and a
corresponding influence among more moderate figures. Some Shiite politicians
have begun portraying Mr. Allawi as an American puppet with no popular base in
Iraq.
"Can Allawi grab the imagination of
moderate Iraqis?" asked Ghassan al-Atiyya, a secular Shiite and the director of
the Iraqi Foundation for Development and Democracy, a Baghdad research
institute. "I am a secular liberal, but I fear that the high moral ground for
many people will be that of anti-American figures such as Sadr and the Sunni
parties."
In the January elections, Mr. Allawi's
party ran on its own. In some ways they were not a fair test, marred by
violence, a short campaign season and widespread boycotts by Sunni Arabs. Still,
the relatively poor showing also revived another accusation frequently leveled
at Mr. Allawi: that he is by temperament an autocratic loner, unable to broker
effective alliances.
So far, he has only united his own party
with a handful of other secular parties and political figures who ran separately
last time. The secular parties hope to draw in the largely secular Kurds, who
make up a fifth of Iraq's population, and to present themselves as a mainstream
alternative to voters within the fragmented Shiite and Sunni camps.
"If all the secular elements cooperate,
we may quite possibly have a majority in the National Assembly," said Adnan
Pachachi, the elder statesman who served as Iraq's foreign minister in the
1960's and who has added his party to the alliance.
Several Kurdish leaders said the Kurds
were likely to run their own alliance, as they did in January, and later join
forces with Mr. Allawi's group if it won a large bloc of seats.
The secular coalition has a better chance
of winning support from Sunni Arab voters, who largely boycotted the elections
in January but who have since registered in large numbers and may become a
potent electoral force. No clear leaders have emerged within the Sunni ranks,
and several parties have expressed interest in joining Mr. Allawi's
group.
In what could be a move to gain Sunni
support, Mr. Allawi, a former Baathist, has been echoing Sunni criticisms of
Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari's policies lately - including the effort to
rid the government of former Baathists. Mr. Allawi and his allies have also been
critical of the recent offensive in Tal Afar, repeating complaints by Sunnis
about its effects on Sunni civilians.
But his efforts could be complicated by
the Oct. 15 vote on the constitution. Many Sunni leaders oppose it and have
urged Iraqis to vote against it. Mr. Allawi has been critical of it, but he has
not come out as forcefully as Sunni leaders would like.
"If he is willing to take our side, we
may support him, but he has to be clearer on a lot of issues," said Ayad
al-Samarrai, a leader of the Iraq Islamic Party, the country's best-known Sunni
party. Sunnis constitute 20 percent of Iraq's population.
Mr. Allawi is unlikely to come out
against the charter. But other deals are possible. Thaier al-Naqib, one of Mr.
Allawi's crucial allies, said the alliance would be willing to demand a timeline
for American withdrawal from Iraq in exchange for the support of hard-line Sunni
groups.
Already, Mr. Allawi's public broadsides
against Iranian influence have won him support in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Those nations have been leery about the current
Shiite government, whose leaders have strong links with Iran. The United States shares those misgivings.
Arab support, Mr. Naqib said, could mean
more effective help in stopping terrorists from crossing into Iraq from those
countries.
"The most important thing is
intelligence," Mr. Naqib said. "The Al Qaeda network is where they can help more
than anyone."
Mr. Allawi's outreach to Sunni voters
could have a serious downside. Some moderate Shiites are already accusing Mr.
Allawi, a secular Shiite, of being too close to certain groups.
"He's trying to draw in Baathist
elements, and that will make it hard for him to draw in any Shiite parties,"
said Ali al-Dabagh, a moderate member of Mr. Jaafari's party.
Accusations of corruption could also be a
problem. Iraqi officials have said they expect to issue arrest warrants for
Hazem Shaalan and other top officials who served in Mr. Allawi's government in
connection with the disappearance of more than $1 billion in government
funds.
Ibrahim Janabi, an aide to Mr. Allawi,
promptly dismissed those accusations as an Iranian-backed effort to smear Iraq's
secular political figures - though it was Mr. Allawi who ordered the
investigation that led to the warrants being issued.
Perhaps the greatest potential advantage
for Mr. Allawi and his allies is the broad-based animosity to sectarianism among
Iraqis, and the widespread sense that the religious parties have only made it
worse.
"Iraq at the moment is suffering from
attempts to hijack the political process by extremists on both sides," said
Barham Saleh, a Kurd who is Iraq's minister of planning and who served in Mr.
Allawi's government. "My hope is that there is enough common ground to create a
viable political center."
Sarah Lyall contributed
reporting from London for this article, and Abdul Razaq al-Saiedy from
Baghdad.
