Re: Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE

[MICHAEL ST ANGELO]

Mark,

I hear you. As an engineer I basically worked a sedentary office job during the 
day and operated at night. When I retired I figured I would have more time but 
I make it a point of being active. My wife and I take a hike very day. When out 
of the house I try to operate portable therefore most of my operation is during 
the day. With this new regimen I find I am really tired after dinner. As a rule 
we do not turn on the television until after dinner.

I also thought I would have more time during retirement for the hobby but this 
is not he case. I'm busier than ever.

Mike N2MS
_
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Re: Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE

[Mark Lunday]

I agree with you, Mike.   It would be interesting to survey the average age of 
our top-band subscribers (Tree, was this done already and I missed it?)

I started on top band in 2007, and really started chasing DX in 2009-2010 
season (it was a good one!)

But that was 10 years ago.  Between increasing demands at work, I hit the 
double-nickel this year, some health issues, problems with sleeping, and now we 
have acquired several four-legged children that we did not have before (rescued 
golden retrievers, rescued cats, rescued horse).  

Add in my time on the bicycle (not as much as I would like), and that doesn't 
leave a lot of time for ham radio.

One good thing about this is that my TV time has gone to almost zero...and my 
winter SAD issues have decreased because I am always getting outside; the horse 
gets daily visits and the golden retrievers will NOT take "NO" for an 
answerthey DEMAND a walk, sometimes two!  

I can remember in 2009, going on 3 hours of sleep many times during the 
week...and somehow being productive at work.  But that was a lifetime ago, work 
is a lot more demanding these days.

Reminds me of a quote from a friend of mine:

"When we were young, we tried to sneak out of the house to go to a party.  
These days, we try to sneak out of a party to go to the house!"

Mark Lunday, WD4ELG
Greensboro, NC  FM06be
wd4...@arrl.net
http://wd4elg.blogspot.com
SKCC #16439  FISTS #17972  QRP ARCI #16497
_
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Re: Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE

[Mike Waters]

Interesting. After reading that Spaceweather article, I had my radiation
detector app running on my tablet two days ago, and there was no doubt that
it was picking up significantly more counts per minute than I've ever seen!
However, the background count last night had dropped to almost normal,
indicating that the cosmic ray level had fallen off.

You can get this free "Geiger counter" app on the Google Play store. It is
very good. It uses one of the cameras as a sensor. Written by a German
scientist, it'll also detect radon gas, radium watch dials, the Americium
from a smoke detector,
some rocks, etc.

73, Mike
W0BTU

On Sat, Dec 14, 2019, 12:24 PM Bill Tippett  wrote:

> This could account for relatively poor conditions on 160 despite the low SF
> and K indices:
>
> *COSMIC RAY UPDATE:* Something ironic is happening in Earth’s atmosphere.
> Solar activity is low–very low. Yet atmospheric radiation is heading in the
> opposite direction. Cosmic rays percolating through the air around us are
> at a 5 year high and only percentage points away from a Space Age record.
> Find out what's happening on today's edition of Spaceweather.com
> <
> https://spaceweather.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=0c5fce34d5ca05f64a13d085d=84e9b2ac89=b06d5db3f7
> >
> .
>
> 73,  Bill  W4ZV
>
_
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Re: Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE

[MICHAEL ST ANGELO]

I attribute the decline in participation to the raising noise floor and the 
aging population of ham radio operators.

I been operating 160 since I moved to the present location form a city lot in 
1998 and have noticed the noise level constantly raising. I've been successful 
in noise sources in the household but most of my noise is external.

This is a hobby of mostly old men. The rigors of extensive antenna work and 
operating during night periods becomes more challenging as we age. I am 67 and 
retired this year and keep very active during the day. Getting up to operate in 
the middle of the night or at dawn was easier when I was younger.

In addition, many of us are also downsizing to small lots or restricted 
communities. Yes we can operate remotely but I like to operate in front of a 
rig.

I don't want to be pessimistic, just realistic. Enjoy it while you can.

Mike N2MS
> On December 15, 2019 at 9:49 AM Carl Luetzelschwab 
>  wrote:
> 

> So 160m continues to be a mystery - and I'm glad of it.
> 
> Carl K9LA
> _
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Re: Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE

[Carl Luetzelschwab]

Hi to everyone,

>From ionization rates in the scientific literature, galactic cosmic rays
(GCRs) result in more electrons down low in the ionosphere (from
collisional ionization) - where ionospheric absorption occurs. So one would
think that the more cosmic rays, the more absorption - which is not good
for 160m (with absorption inversely proportional to the square of the
frequency, 80m is affected much less). Is there a direct one-to-one
relationship between GCRs and 160m propagation? I don't know because there
are other processes going on in the lower ionosphere that may also impact
160m. Trying to tie one single parameter to 160m propagation is not likely
the entire story.

As for the geomagnetic field (Ap) not being as low yet as in the last solar
minimum, the lowest Ap occurs right at solar minimum or just after - when
coronal holes (generally not CMEs) during the declining phase of the solar
cycle decrease.

So 160m continues to be a mystery - and I'm glad of it.

Carl K9LA
_
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Re: Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE

[Chortek, Robert L.]

On Dec 15, 2019, at 3:32 AM, Bill Tippett  wrote:
> 
> ”... the great conditions of 2009 were
> actually SLIGHTLY AFTER the cycle 24 minimum in December 2008.  If the new
> minimum is as forecast in April 2020, it could be that the best conditions
> will be slightly past that minimum (i.e. during the upcoming 2020-2021
> season).  Time will tell.
> 
> 73,  Bill  W4ZV

I hope you are right!  That would mean at least two great seasons back to make. 
 Wouldn’t that be nice after the tough years we’ve had!?!

Worked two more EU this morning.  Good for me!

73,

Bob AA6VB 
_
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Re: Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE

[Bill Tippett]

From:  https://www.cq160.com/scores.htm

The 20 all time highest CQ160CW scores for USA::

YearInstances (ranks)
2018:  1 (#9)
2017:  1 (#20)
2013:  1 (#18)
2011:  4 (#5, 8, 11, 15)
2010:  3 (#3, 6, 10)
2009:  10 (#1, 2, 4, 7, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17, 19)

2009 + 11 year cycle = 2020. However the great conditions of 2009 were
actually SLIGHTLY AFTER the cycle 24 minimum in December 2008.  If the new
minimum is as forecast in April 2020, it could be that the best conditions
will be slightly past that minimum (i.e. during the upcoming 2020-2021
season).  Time will tell.

73,  Bill  W4ZV


On Sun, Dec 15, 2019 at 12:00 AM Larry  wrote:

> for what it's worth here are my scores from past years:
> 2007   247,000
> 2009   618,000
> 2010   752,000   (83 countries)
> 2011   600,000
> 2012   324,000
> 2013   367,000
> 2014   312,000
> 2015   319,000
> 2016   278,000
> 2017   372,000
> 2018   384,000
>
> certainly scores were dependent on conditions that weekend but no doubt
> 2010 was by far the best.
>
> European signals were constantly over S9 the entire season. so far this
> season no EU has gone over the S7 mark. (zero noise on the beverages)
>
> hope that it gets better soon. it has been a very bad winter.
>
> larry
> n7dd
>
> -Original Message-
> From: Bill Tippett 
> To: Nicholas Hall-Patch 
> CC: topband 
> Sent: Sun, 15 Dec 2019 3:28
> Subject: Re: Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE
>
> Could be that good conditions are just ahead but they better hurry up.  The
> 6 years of >100k scores in the last cycle versus none so far in this one
> seems to indicate something is very different about this cycle compared to
> the last one.  If this cycle is 11 years, we should have seen much better
> conditions beginning in 2016 (2005 + 11 = 2016).  2005 was actually the
> best year for CQWW results.  I remember it well and there has been nothing
> comparable so far (i.e. 2016-2019).  If I had time I would look at the CQWW
> multi-multi scores for 160 to see if they correlate with single band
> scores.  Maybe someone else will have a look and include at CQ160 scores as
> well.
>
> 73,  Bill  W4ZV
>
> On Sat, Dec 14, 2019 at 8:13 PM Nicholas Hall-Patch  wrote:
>
> > But doesn't the graph referenced in your link
> > https://spaceweather.com/repeat_images/crinfo2.png indicate that the
> > greatest strength from cosmic rays was 2009-2010, when trans polar
> > conditions were at their best, Bill?
> >
> > I'd defer to K9LA's comments in a heartbeat, but isn't the one (the
> > primary?) reason for greater penetration of cosmic rays  the weakening
> > geomagnetic activity  that occurs during solar minimum, and that's
> related
> > to the intensity and speed of the solar wind, driven by coronal mass
> > ejections and such like.  According to
> > https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression, we are only
> > now approaching the low levels of geomagnetic activity (Ap progression
> > chart) seen in 2009 / 2010.Of course we may never reach those levels.
> > We have to wait and see.
> >
> > best wishes,
> >
> > Nick
> > VE7DXR
> >
> > On Sat, Dec 14, 2019 at 6:24 PM Bill Tippett 
> > wrote:
> >
> >> This could account for relatively poor conditions on 160 despite the low
> >> SF
> >> and K indices:
> >>
> >> *COSMIC RAY UPDATE:* Something ironic is happening in Earth’s
> atmosphere.
> >> Solar activity is low–very low. Yet atmospheric radiation is heading in
> >> the
> >> opposite direction. Cosmic rays percolating through the air around us
> are
> >> at a 5 year high and only percentage points away from a Space Age
> record.
> >> Find out what's happening on today's edition of Spaceweather.com
> >> <
> >>
> https://spaceweather.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=0c5fce34d5ca05f64a13d085d=84e9b2ac89=b06d5db3f7
> >> >
> >> .
> >>
> >> 73,  Bill  W4ZV
> >> _
> >> Searchable Archives: http://www.contesting.com/_topband - Topband
> >> Reflector
> >>
> >
> _
> Searchable Archives: http://www.contesting.com/_topband - Topband
> Reflector
>
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Re: Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE

[Bill Tippett]

Could be that good conditions are just ahead but they better hurry up.  The
6 years of >100k scores in the last cycle versus none so far in this one
seems to indicate something is very different about this cycle compared to
the last one.  If this cycle is 11 years, we should have seen much better
conditions beginning in 2016 (2005 + 11 = 2016).  2005 was actually the
best year for CQWW results.  I remember it well and there has been nothing
comparable so far (i.e. 2016-2019).  If I had time I would look at the CQWW
multi-multi scores for 160 to see if they correlate with single band
scores.  Maybe someone else will have a look and include at CQ160 scores as
well.

73,  Bill  W4ZV

On Sat, Dec 14, 2019 at 8:13 PM Nicholas Hall-Patch  wrote:

> But doesn't the graph referenced in your link
> https://spaceweather.com/repeat_images/crinfo2.png indicate that the
> greatest strength from cosmic rays was 2009-2010, when trans polar
> conditions were at their best, Bill?
>
> I'd defer to K9LA's comments in a heartbeat, but isn't the one (the
> primary?) reason for greater penetration of cosmic rays  the weakening
> geomagnetic activity  that occurs during solar minimum, and that's related
> to the intensity and speed of the solar wind, driven by coronal mass
> ejections and such like.   According to
> https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression, we are only
> now approaching the low levels of geomagnetic activity (Ap progression
> chart) seen in 2009 / 2010.Of course we may never reach those levels.
> We have to wait and see.
>
> best wishes,
>
> Nick
> VE7DXR
>
> On Sat, Dec 14, 2019 at 6:24 PM Bill Tippett 
> wrote:
>
>> This could account for relatively poor conditions on 160 despite the low
>> SF
>> and K indices:
>>
>> *COSMIC RAY UPDATE:* Something ironic is happening in Earth’s atmosphere.
>> Solar activity is low–very low. Yet atmospheric radiation is heading in
>> the
>> opposite direction. Cosmic rays percolating through the air around us are
>> at a 5 year high and only percentage points away from a Space Age record.
>> Find out what's happening on today's edition of Spaceweather.com
>> <
>> https://spaceweather.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=0c5fce34d5ca05f64a13d085d=84e9b2ac89=b06d5db3f7
>> >
>> .
>>
>> 73,  Bill  W4ZV
>> _
>> Searchable Archives: http://www.contesting.com/_topband - Topband
>> Reflector
>>
>
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Re: Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE

[Nicholas Hall-Patch]

But doesn't the graph referenced in your link
https://spaceweather.com/repeat_images/crinfo2.png indicate that the
greatest strength from cosmic rays was 2009-2010, when trans polar
conditions were at their best, Bill?

I'd defer to K9LA's comments in a heartbeat, but isn't the one (the
primary?) reason for greater penetration of cosmic rays  the weakening
geomagnetic activity  that occurs during solar minimum, and that's related
to the intensity and speed of the solar wind, driven by coronal mass
ejections and such like.   According to
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression, we are only now
approaching the low levels of geomagnetic activity (Ap progression chart)
seen in 2009 / 2010.Of course we may never reach those levels.   We
have to wait and see.

best wishes,

Nick
VE7DXR

On Sat, Dec 14, 2019 at 6:24 PM Bill Tippett  wrote:

> This could account for relatively poor conditions on 160 despite the low SF
> and K indices:
>
> *COSMIC RAY UPDATE:* Something ironic is happening in Earth’s atmosphere.
> Solar activity is low–very low. Yet atmospheric radiation is heading in the
> opposite direction. Cosmic rays percolating through the air around us are
> at a 5 year high and only percentage points away from a Space Age record.
> Find out what's happening on today's edition of Spaceweather.com
> <
> https://spaceweather.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=0c5fce34d5ca05f64a13d085d=84e9b2ac89=b06d5db3f7
> >
> .
>
> 73,  Bill  W4ZV
> _
> Searchable Archives: http://www.contesting.com/_topband - Topband
> Reflector
>
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Re: Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE

[Bill Tippett]

Not bad but definitely not great either.  Nobody (USA SOHP/160) has broken
100k so far in CQWWCW for this cycle low.  There were 6 consecutive years
over 100k (2005-2010) for the previous cycle low.  K9LA may comment but I
understand cosmic rays cause increased absorption just as high solar
activity does.  See his post here
http://lists.contesting.com/_topband/2016-10/msg00157.html  And FYI the
2019 raw claimed high is around 65k.

*Year* *Call* *Category* *Score* *160M* *80M* *40M* *20M* *15M* *10M*
*Hours* *Operator(s)*
2018 K4PI SO HP 160M 73,644  277/23/79   19.4
2017 K4PI SO HP 160M 30,338  169/17/60   17.4
2016 W2VO SO HP 160M 12,096  85/17/47   10.6
2015 K7GM/2 SO HP 160M 57,534  263/16/70   20.7
2014 K1ZM SO HP 160M 75,272  312/20/77   23.0
2013 K4PI SO HP 160M 45,724  194/20/72   18.6
2012 K4PI SO HP 160M 43,848  210/20/67   7.0
2011 K4PI SO HP 160M 76,956  307/23/83   13.2
2010 W4ZV SO HP 160M 138,650  475/26/92   15.9
2009 N7UA SO HP 160M 122,100  565/27/73   18.6
2008 N7UA SO HP 160M 139,411  557/30/79   19.9
2007 KT1V SO HP 160M 117,165  505/21/86   16.8
2006 K3BU/8 SO HP 160M 151,970  -
2005 N4PN SO HP 160M 136,653  -
2004 NN1N SO HP 160M 27,432  -
2003 K1UO SO HP 160M 23,332  -
2002 AA6TT/1 SO HP 160M 12,390  -
2001 W2VO SO HP 160M 1,566  -
2000 K1FZ SO HP 160M 45,270  -  K1UO

On Sat, Dec 14, 2019 at 2:22 PM Tree  wrote:

> This morning - I put 21 Europeans in the log.
>
> Guess conditions are not that bad.
>
> Tree  N6TR
>
> On Sat, Dec 14, 2019 at 10:24 AM Bill Tippett 
> wrote:
>
>> This could account for relatively poor conditions on 160 despite the low
>> SF
>> and K indices:
>>
>> *COSMIC RAY UPDATE:* Something ironic is happening in Earth’s atmosphere.
>> Solar activity is low–very low. Yet atmospheric radiation is heading in
>> the
>> opposite direction. Cosmic rays percolating through the air around us are
>> at a 5 year high and only percentage points away from a Space Age record.
>> Find out what's happening on today's edition of Spaceweather.com
>> <
>> https://spaceweather.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=0c5fce34d5ca05f64a13d085d=84e9b2ac89=b06d5db3f7
>> >
>> .
>>
>> 73,  Bill  W4ZV
>> _
>> Searchable Archives: http://www.contesting.com/_topband - Topband
>> Reflector
>>
>
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Re: Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE

[Michael Tope]

During the last minimum, there were times when high northern latitude 
stations in zone 17 and 18 would be very strong for long periods of time 
here in southern California. Last Sunday morning during the ARRL 160 
contest there was an opening that had that very low absorption 
characteristic (RA4LW was briefly pumping my AGC), but it was very short 
lived opening. Nothing like the sustained openings from the last cycle.


I've been hoping for a repeat performance of the last cycle, but so far 
I've been disappointed. Perhaps the GCR phenomenon is the reason. We are 
still early into the winter season, so perhaps there is still some hope.


73, Mike W4EF

On 12/14/2019 10:24 AM, Bill Tippett wrote:

This could account for relatively poor conditions on 160 despite the low SF
and K indices:

*COSMIC RAY UPDATE:* Something ironic is happening in Earth’s atmosphere.
Solar activity is low–very low. Yet atmospheric radiation is heading in the
opposite direction. Cosmic rays percolating through the air around us are
at a 5 year high and only percentage points away from a Space Age record.
Find out what's happening on today's edition of Spaceweather.com

.

73,  Bill  W4ZV


_
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Re: Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE

[Chortek, Robert L.]

Please don’t laugh at my puny numbers.

This season I have worked 5 European stations from my noise challenged postage 
stamp lot in San Jose.  The last time I was able to hear and work a European 
station at my QTH was 2009.  

I’ve worked more DXCC entities on 160 this year than I have in any single year 
since 2010/11.

For me, this has easily been the best year in about a decade.  

That’s not to say there have not been periods of poor propagation this year but 
overall, it been good for me!

73 es DX,

Bob AA6VB 
Robert L. Chortek

> On Dec 14, 2019, at 12:16 PM, K9FD  wrote:
> 
> This morning conditions were close to, not quite as good as 2008 era

> On Sat, Dec 14, 2019 at 10:24 AM Bill Tippett  wrote:
>>> 
>>> This could account for relatively poor conditions on 160 despite the low SF
>>> and K indices
_
Searchable Archives: http://www.contesting.com/_topband - Topband Reflector

Re: Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE

[K9FD]

This morning conditions were close to, not quite as good as 2008 era.
A5 was a good signal drawing a big crowd,  4S7 good signal even after 
sunrise,
lot of Asian Russians,  EU Russians,  EU from north to G, F, SV, etc 
copyable,

EA8ZT called me with 599 plus signals just after my sunrise,  lot of good
DX and decent signals.
Flash Gordon must have had his ray shield in place and deflecting them into
deep space.

From my morning 160 monitoring for the past month or so,  it has been 
pretty

decent conditions on and off.
The death of the band is greatly exaggerated,  you just have to check 
both ends

of the band to find the activity so to speak.
If this continues,  would hope next season to be close to 2008 era.

73 Merv K9FD

This morning - I put 21 Europeans in the log.

Guess conditions are not that bad.

Tree  N6TR

On Sat, Dec 14, 2019 at 10:24 AM Bill Tippett  wrote:


This could account for relatively poor conditions on 160 despite the low SF
and K indices:

*COSMIC RAY UPDATE:* Something ironic is happening in Earth’s atmosphere.
Solar activity is low–very low. Yet atmospheric radiation is heading in the
opposite direction. Cosmic rays percolating through the air around us are
at a 5 year high and only percentage points away from a Space Age record.
Find out what's happening on today's edition of Spaceweather.com
<
https://spaceweather.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=0c5fce34d5ca05f64a13d085d=84e9b2ac89=b06d5db3f7
.

73,  Bill  W4ZV
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Re: Topband: COSMIC RAY UPDATE

[Tree]

This morning - I put 21 Europeans in the log.

Guess conditions are not that bad.

Tree  N6TR

On Sat, Dec 14, 2019 at 10:24 AM Bill Tippett  wrote:

> This could account for relatively poor conditions on 160 despite the low SF
> and K indices:
>
> *COSMIC RAY UPDATE:* Something ironic is happening in Earth’s atmosphere.
> Solar activity is low–very low. Yet atmospheric radiation is heading in the
> opposite direction. Cosmic rays percolating through the air around us are
> at a 5 year high and only percentage points away from a Space Age record.
> Find out what's happening on today's edition of Spaceweather.com
> <
> https://spaceweather.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=0c5fce34d5ca05f64a13d085d=84e9b2ac89=b06d5db3f7
> >
> .
>
> 73,  Bill  W4ZV
> _
> Searchable Archives: http://www.contesting.com/_topband - Topband
> Reflector
>
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