RE: [agi] Chess Master Theory Of AGI.

[Ben Goertzel]

This will 
occur before the predictions of the experts in the field of Singularity 
prediction because their predictions are based on a constant Moore's Law and 
they over estimate the computational capacity required for human level 
AGI. Their dates vary from 2016 to 2030 depending on whether they are 
using the 18 month figure or the 12 month figure. Moore's Law is currently 
at 9 months and falling. My calculations based on a falling Moore's Law 
put the Singularityon April 28th, 2005.

This human 
level AGI in a computer will be quite superior to a human because of several 
advantages that machines have over gray matter. These advantages are: 
upgradability, self-improvement through redesign, self editability, reliability, 
functional parallelism, accuracy, and speed. This superiority will be 
quantitative not qualitative. It will be superior but completely 
comprehensible to us. The belief in a radically different form of advanced 
thought incomprehensible to present humans is philosophical in nature, not based 
on evidence.



Mike,

Is it 
really true that Moore's Law is at 9 months and falling? Do you have some 
references on this?

Even 
if this were the case, it wouldn't cause the Singularity by 2005. 
Processing power is not the only bottleneck!

It's 
true that with faster, cheaper processing power, more people will be able to 
experiment with more significant AGI systems. 

But 
even with a correct AGI design, and adequate funding, computing power and 
staffing, I think it's going to take anyone several years to get from AGI-design 
to teachable human-level system.That is the nature of engineering 
complex software systems based on complex ideas. And of course it 
may take some time to get from teachable-human-level system to superhuman-level 
system as well !!! ;-p

So, I 
think that the most wildly optimistic projection we can rationally hope for is 
superhuman intelligence (the "Singularity")by 2010.

But 
this could only be achieved if *everything goes right*And of 
course,I don't know how to estimate the odds that everything goes 
right. An example of "everything going right" would be: One of the 
currently in-development AGI designs (say, Novamente or A2I2 or NARS) turns out 
to be almost entirely correct, AND, gets adequately funded... and, teaching a 
human-level AGI to productively self-modify toward unlimited intelligence turns 
out to be a matter of a couple years, not a decade. This is a lot of ANDs, 
Mike -- an awful lot of ANDs ... 

-- 
Ben

Re: [agi] Chess Master Theory Of AGI.

[Cliff Stabbert]

Friday, January 3, 2003, 11:37:15 PM, Mike Deering wrote:

MDThe intelligence of computer software keeps constant with the
MDcapability of the $1000 desktop.

I strongly disagree.  The intelligence of computer software has
remained pretty constant.  The feature lists (and memory, disk and
processor requirements) have grown.

MDWhen the $1000 desktop reaches sufficiency to run human level AGI
MDit will be available.  This is an economic certainty.

When the hardware reaches some sort of equivalence, you mean?  If so
I can't see the reasoning.  If you mean when the software reaches that
level, and can run on $1,000 desktop machines...I guess it would be
available soon enough, but I can't see the economic certainty.
All the technology for Britney Spears to pose nude for Playboy exists,
and there's certainly a market for it, but that doesn't make it an
economic certainty (give it five years or so).

MD This will occur before the predictions of the experts in the field
MD of Singularity prediction because their predictions are based on a
MD constant Moore's Law and they over estimate the computational  
MD capacity required for human level AGI.

Experts in that field?  Is that something like DC sniper experts
or terrorism experts?

MD Their dates vary from 2016 to 2030 depending on whether they are
MD using the 18 month figure or the 12 month figure.  Moore's Law is
MD currently at 9 months and falling. 

Data, please.

MD My calculations based on a falling Moore's Law put
MD the Singularity on April 28th, 2005.

Duh.  *Everyone* knows Timewave Zero collapses when the Mayan calendar
ends, in 2012.

MD This human level AGI in a computer will be quite superior to a
MD human because of several advantages that machines have over gray
MD matter.  These advantages are: upgradability, self-improvement  
MD through redesign, self editability, reliability, functional
MD parallelism, accuracy, and speed.

Depends on the architecture.  Although I suspect real AI will be
built with most of those features, I can imagine architectures that
arrive at near-human equivalent without a number of those features.

MD This superiority will be quantitative not qualitative.

I'd say the ability to redesign itself, design iteratively more
optimized versions of itself and the like are qualitative differences.

MD It will be superior but completely comprehensible to us.

DOES NOT COMPUTE beep DOES NOT COMPUTE beep

We're not superior to ourselves, and we're certainly not completely
comprehensible to ourselves.

MD The belief in a radically different form of advanced thought
MD incomprehensible to present humans is philosophical in nature, not
MD based on evidence. 

cheap shot...kind of like your arguments here then./cheap shot


--
Cliff

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