[Keuangan] How do mobile phones promote economic growth?

[sidqy suyitno]

Economics focus

To do with the price of fish




May 10th
 2007


>From The Economist print edition




How do mobile phones promote economic growth? A new paper
provides a vivid example.




YOU are a fisherman off the coast of northern Kerala, a
region in the south of India.
Visiting your usual fishing ground, you bring in an unusually good catch of
sardines. That means other fishermen in the area will probably have done well
too, so there will be plenty of supply at the local beach market: prices will
be low, and you may not even be able to sell your catch. Should you head for
the usual market anyway, or should you go down the coast in the hope that
fishermen in that area will not have done so well and your fish will fetch a
better price? If you make the wrong choice you cannot visit another market
because fuel is costly and each market is open for only a couple of hours
before dawn—and it takes that long for your boat to putter from one to the
next. Since fish are perishable, any that cannot be sold will have to be dumped
into the sea.


This, in a nutshell, was the situation facing Kerala’s
fishermen until 1997. The result was far from ideal for both fishermen and
their customers. In practice, fishermen chose to stick with their home markets
all the time. This was wasteful because when a particular market is
oversupplied, fish are thrown away, even though there may be buyers for them a
little farther along the coast. On average, 5-8% of the total catch was wasted,
says Robert Jensen, a development economist at Harvard
 University who has surveyed the
price of sardines at 15 beach markets along Kerala’s coast. On January 14th 
1997, for
example, 11 fishermen at Badagara beach ended up throwing away their catches,
yet on that day there were 27 buyers at markets within 15km (about nine miles)
who would have bought their fish. There were also wide variations in the price
of sardines along the coast.


But starting in 1997 mobile phones were introduced in
Kerala. Since coverage spread gradually, this provided an ideal way to gauge
the effect of mobile phones on the fishermen’s behaviour, the price of fish,
and the amount of waste. For many years, anecdotes have abounded about the ways
in which mobile phones promote more efficient markets and encourage economic
activity. One particularly popular tale is that of the fisherman who is able to
call several nearby markets from his boat to establish where his catch will
fetch the highest price. Mr Jensen’s paper* adds some numbers to the familiar
stories and shows precisely how mobile phones support economic growth.


As phone coverage spread between 1997 and 2000, fishermen
started to buy phones and use them to call coastal markets while still at sea.
(The area of coverage reaches 20-25km off the coast.) Instead of selling their
fish at beach auctions, the fishermen would call around to find the best price.
Dividing the coast into three regions, Mr Jensen found that the proportion of
fishermen who ventured beyond their home markets to sell their catches jumped
from zero to around 35% as soon as coverage became available in each region. At
that point, no fish were wasted and the variation in prices fell dramatically.
By the end of the study coverage was available in all three regions. Waste had
been eliminated and the “law of one price”—the idea that in an efficient market
identical goods should cost the same—had come into effect, in the form of a
single rate for sardines along the coast.


This more efficient market benefited everyone. Fishermen’s
profits rose by 8% on average and consumer prices fell by 4% on average. Higher
profits meant the phones typically paid for themselves within two months. And
the benefits are enduring, rather than one-off. All of this, says Mr Jensen,
shows the importance of the free flow of information to ensure that markets
work efficiently. “Information makes markets work, and markets improve
welfare,” he concludes.


Mr Jensen’s work is valuable because studies of the
economic effect of mobile phones tend to be macroeconomic. A well known example
is the finding in 2005 by Leonard Waverman, of the London Business School, that
an extra 10 mobile phones per 100 people in a typical developing country leads
to an additional 0.59 percentage points of growth in GDP per person. (He
recently repeated this earlier study using a more elaborate model and found
that an extra 10 percentage points in mobile-phone penetration led to an extra
0.44 percentage points of growth, a difference he says is not statistically
significant.)


Calls and effect


One criticism levelled at such studies, says Mr Waverman,
is that it is difficult to tell if mobile phones are promoting growth, or
growth is promoting the adoption of mobile phones, as people become able to
afford them. It is easy to imagine ways in which mobile phones could stimulate
economic activity—they make up for poor infrastructure by substituting for
travel, allow price data to be distri

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[Keuangan] Kabar baru

[reza]

Bapak-Ibu sekalian..
   
  Masih ingat saya?
  Saya yang dulu nanya mengenai transaksi index saham, nikkei..
  Setelah saya masukkan pertanyaan saya di forum ini, saya mendapatkan respon 
yang baik, yang memberi saran saya untuk keluar segera dari investasi yang 
konon jarang sekali memberi keuntungan.
  Sekarang saya sudah cutloss, dan ada beberapa hal yang saya dapatkan, dan 
akan saya bagikan,  semoga berguna.
  1. Pialang, ,perusahaan trader, bukanlah pihak yang bertanggung jawab atas 
loss dan profit yang Anda dapatkan. Andalah yang bertanggung jawab. Sebab itu 
hati-hatilah. 
  2. Pialang Anda mungkin tidak mendapatkan untung apa-apa ketika Anda loss. 
Tapi yang jelas anda juga tidak mendapatkan untung apa-apa, dan anda loss..
  3. Anda harus dapat memberi masukan pada pialang Anda,  ketika ia memutuskan 
untuk membeli atau menjual. Jangan menyerahkan 100% padanya, atau Anda akan 
bertanya-tanya apakah hasilnya akan sama kalo Anda yang memegang sendiri 
account Anda.
  Untuk itu Anda harus... BELAJAR
  4. Ketika semua instrumen analisa digunakan untuk melakukan putusan yang 
dianggap paling aman, tetapi Anda tetap loss, maka Anda mungkin tidak beruntung
  5. Sangat pertimbangkan untuk CutLoss sejak anda mengalami loss pertama, di 
mana profit pertama Anda tidak menutupi sama sekali loss anda. Jangan berharap 
pada profit 2x yang kemungkinan akan datang,  karena ternyata sulit sekali 
menganalisa pergerakan nilai saham gabungan, mengakibatkan sulit mengambil 
keputusan yang tepat.
  6. Semakin besar modal Anda, mungkin makin besar kemungkinan anda mendapat 
profit (anda bisa over night, khan?), jadi kalau dana Anda terbatas, 
pikirkanlah lagi matang2x.
   
  Mungkin para pakar ada yang bisa menambahkan alasan lagi, mengapa saya loss?
   
  Maaf bila ada istilah2x bisnis dan ekonomi yang salah,  atau bila ada 
komentar2x yang dinilai tidak benar, karena ini murni curahan hati saya,  tanpa 
didukung oleh data ilmiah apapun.
   
   
  Terimakasih
  Reza
   
  Berikut adalah 'perjalan uang saya'. Sayonara, money
   
* Semua dalam $ dengan fix rate $1=Rp.10.000
DATE  EQUITY  MARGIN IN  MARGIN OUT  PROFIT  LOSS  TOTAL EQUITY  10-Okt-06  
  6.0006.000   12-Okt-06 6.000  
   (50)  50  6.000   17-Okt-06 6.000
   (200)  5.800   23-Okt-06 5.800   
(125)  5.675   30-Okt-06 5.675   (200)  
5.475   06-Nop-06 5.475 50  
5.525   09-Nop-06 5.525   (300)  5.225  
 10-Nop-06 5.225(2.000)3.225   
17-Nop-06 3.225 500 (1.450)  2.275  
 07-Des-06 2.275 50  2.325   
08-Des-06 2.325   (200)  2.125   29-Jan-06  
   2.125   (625)
1.500   22-Feb-06 1.500   175  
1.675   23-Feb-06 1.675   (350)  1.325  
 11-Mei-07 1.325   100  1.425   
15-Mei-07 1.425   (265)  1.160  
  6.500 (2.675)425   (3.090)
  Total Transaksi (transaction)   13   %   CostTotal Cost   
  Loss  8  62%  400  650Profit  5  38%  250 
Total Transaksi (amount)  3.515   %  Loss 3.090 
  88%  Profit425   12%
REKAPAN  MARGIN IN 6.500   
MARGIN OUT(2.675)  TOTAL EQUITY 3.515   
SISA EQUITY 1.160   TOTAL LOSS  2.355   
  

 
-
Don't pick lemons.
See all the new 2007 cars at Yahoo! Autos.

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[Keuangan] Re:Need Info

[Ardhy Ryadi]

bisa dicari di jsx.co.id, atau ketik tick mark nya di yahoo atau
google finance portal. bloomberg juga bisa.