RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Unfortunately your
back-testing only curve fits your trade system making it optimal with already
known data.
If you were to use IO
with it out of sample I would think that it would fall apart and you would have
to wait for that huge win to dig you out
I rather have my system
with a Mdd of about 9% and Annret of 38%
Mark
From:
amibroker@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Mark H
Sent: Monday, June 19, 2006 10:02
PM
To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has
anybody made any money???
That's why I said itwas the most difficult part of the
system :-)
When I couldn't sleep at night, I just ran a backtest again,
and compared the current market conditions with historical conditions with
similar drawdowns.
That helped me breathe and relax!
- Original Message -
From: MailYahoo
To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Monday, June 19,
2006 8:56 PM
Subject: RE: [amibroker]
Has anybody made any money???
Mark,
40% MDD?
I would be up all night with that
To me that is not a trading system that I could
live with, more of a hope and pray type of system
Mark
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center tabIndex=-1>
From: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf
Of Mark H
Sent: Monday, June 19, 2006 5:30
PM
To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has
anybody made any money???
Dr Gaine$
My
strategy is dip buying. When the market is bullish, buy strong stocks when they
dip steeply and sell them when they rise.
The secret
is to use time stops (5-8 days) to let your capital work harder for you.
The most
difficult part is to sit tight when market is not good and also stomach the
drawdown up to 40%.
Backtest
helps a lot to pull the trigger when you are down 40%.
- Mark
-
Original Message -
From: richard
gaines
To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Sunday, June 18, 2006 9:40 AM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Share your
strategy with us Mark.
Dr Gaine$
Mark H [EMAIL PROTECTED]
wrote:
Absolutely.
Average 126% for the last three years.
But you
should know thatsoftwareare just tools and not money printing
machines. It is what between your ears matters.
-
Original Message -
From: tom_katch
To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, June 17, 2006 7:04 AM
Subject: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
I own Amibroker
software, and have the latest version (standard). I
also have Metastock, Vectorvest and some other software. But I am
sorry to say that Amibroker is the only software I ever bought that I
did not study up on. I understand that most of the users are very
pleased with it from looking at this forum. Most of the postings are
of a technical nature, with questions as how to understand and use the
software. But I don't recall seeing postings from people noting their
success in using the software. Have any of you had great/good/fair
success in using it? Have you made a lot/some/little money with it?
Maybe some of your positive comments will give me a kick in the ass,
and I'll start on the 800 page manual.
Thanks
Fred
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RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Thanks. You said your system is mechanical. Was the
"out of the market" decision mechanical? If so, mind telling what method
you used? Also, what do you mean by "Up 26% this year
(after DD)"?
d
From: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Mark HSent:
Tuesday, June 20, 2006 1:42 PMTo:
amibroker@yahoogroups.comSubject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made
any money???
Mostly out of the market in the last 30 days due
to market conditions.
Current DD 20%, incurred the week before the 10+
days crash (no trades during the crash). Up 26% this year (after
DD).
I found that if I put in more rules to reduce the
DD, it would greatly reduce returns.
- Original Message -
From:
dingo
To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 11:24
AM
Subject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody
made any money???
How have you done in the last 30
days?
d
From: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Mark
HSent: Monday, June 19, 2006 10:15 PMTo: amibroker@yahoogroups.comSubject:
Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Yuki:
Of course, it is self-evident that nobody can
get 100% every year otherwise he would own the whole world in less than 50
years starting with $100.
That's not the point. The point is when you
are small, you should strive for high returns with reasonable drawdowns.
Then when you get to a few millions or higher, you should diversify your
investments/systems and get lower but steady returns. That's the goal for
many individual traders if they don't want to manage other
people'smoney.
As I read, many top traders were able to get
50-500% for 5-10yearswhen they started out. When you are big,
it is hard to get high returns since your moving in/out of the market
causesadverseprice movements.
Richard Dennis didn't blow his own bankroll.
He blew half of the fund he managed in 1987 because he violated his own
principles which he taught to the turtles. He stopped managing fund for a
few years until 1994, when he started Dennis Trading Group. He was and
still is a very wealthy man.
Good trading,
- Mark
- Original Message -
From: Yuki
Taga
To: Mark H
Sent: Monday, June 19, 2006 9:16
PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has
anybody made any money???
Hi Mark,Glad to hear you don't bet the farm. ^_^I was
trading probably before the 'Wizard' writers were out of
highschool.And I believe Richard Dennis, whose successes
were kind of theinspiration for those books, eventually tapped out,
as in blew thewhole bankroll. Pardon me if I have that
wrong.Nobody gets those returns consistently, and the basic
reason behindthat statement being clearly true should be obvious:
The geometricalgrowth of the money would soon have such a successful
trader withsuch a large amount of capital that percentage return
getsprogressively more and more difficult to keep in the
stratosphere.Eventually, position sizes become a problem because of
marketliquidity. Or did you harken onto the grail? ^_-Look
at Warren Buffet's problem ... too much cash, not enoughqualifying
opportunities. And he's not even a trader.Of course, you could
be talking un-compounded. But I still haveserious doubts about
sustainability.I stand by my statement that outsized returns,
particularly thesuper-jumbo outsized, require outsized risk. I
haven't seen anycases in which that risk didn't ultimately pose a
problem. And Ialso stand by my opinion that percentage returns in
that league areunsustainable. If they were not, a very few managers
would bemanaging most of the world's capital. But that is not the
case.YukiTuesday, June 20, 2006, 9:36:27 AM, you
wrote:MH Yuki:MH Thanks for your kind warning.
However, you got it wrong. I am trading a strict mechanical system
including position sizing algorithm. So "bet it all" is not applicable
here. There were no bigbets and no big wins either. Just small bets
and small wins/losses, and a lot of them. Since you stated "nobody gets
those kind of returns", I would recommend that you read a few of
thosewizards/hitters books to get some inspiration. MH Good
trading,MH - Mark
H
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To get support from AmiBroker please send an e-mail directly to
SUPPO
RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Mark, So you are up so far 26% this year I take it you expect to be up another 100% or so to make that 126% annret? Mark From: amibroker@yahoogroups.com [mailto:amibroker@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Mark H Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 2:23 PM To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? Yes. It is some trend indicators based on major market indexes. Use Foreign functions. 26% is based on current equity and start equity of this year. I mentioned after DD sincethe systemis currently experiencing a DD. There is a trick I can share with you: compare yoursystem equity curve with the curve of market-based indicators, you may be able to find some correlation to improve your system by using some market-based rules to stay out of market or use higher leverage. - Original Message - From: dingo To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 1:45 PM Subject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? Thanks. You said your system is mechanical. Was the out of the market decision mechanical? If so, mind telling what method you used? Also, what do you mean by Up 26% this year (after DD)? d From: amibroker@yahoogroups.com [mailto:amibroker@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Mark H Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 1:42 PM To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? Mostly out of the market in the last 30 days due to market conditions. Current DD 20%, incurred the week before the 10+ days crash (no trades during the crash). Up 26% this year (after DD). I found that if I put in more rules to reduce the DD, it would greatly reduce returns. - Original Message - From: dingo To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 11:24 AM Subject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? How have you done in the last 30 days? d From: amibroker@yahoogroups.com [mailto:amibroker@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Mark H Sent: Monday, June 19, 2006 10:15 PM To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? Yuki: Of course, it is self-evident that nobody can get 100% every year otherwise he would own the whole world in less than 50 years starting with $100. That's not the point. The point is when you are small, you should strive for high returns with reasonable drawdowns. Then when you get to a few millions or higher, you should diversify your investments/systems and get lower but steady returns. That's the goal for many individual traders if they don't want to manage other people'smoney. As I read, many top traders were able to get 50-500% for 5-10yearswhen they started out. When you are big, it is hard to get high returns since your moving in/out of the market causesadverseprice movements. Richard Dennis didn't blow his own bankroll. He blew half of the fund he managed in 1987 because he violated his own principles which he taught to the turtles. He stopped managing fund for a few years until 1994, when he started Dennis Trading Group. He was and still is a very wealthy man. Good trading, - Mark - Original Message - From: Yuki Taga To: Mark H Sent: Monday, June 19, 2006 9:16 PM Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? Hi Mark, Glad to hear you don't bet the farm. ^_^ I was trading probably before the 'Wizard' writers were out of high school. And I believe Richard Dennis, whose successes were kind of the inspiration for those books, eventually tapped out, as in blew the whole bankroll. Pardon me if I have that wrong. Nobody gets those returns consistently, and the basic reason behind that statement being clearly true should be obvious: The geometrical growth of the money would soon have such a successful trader with such a large amount of capital that percentage return gets progressively more and more difficult to keep in the stratosphere. Eventually, position sizes become a problem because of market liquidity. Or did you harken onto the grail? ^_- Look at Warren Buffet's problem ... too much cash, not enough qualifying opportunities. And he's not even a trader. Of course, you could be talking un-compounded. But I still have serious doubts about sustainability. I stand by my statement that outsized returns, particularly the super-jumbo outsized, require outsized risk. I haven't seen any cases in which that risk didn't ultimately pose a problem. And I also stand by my opinion that percentage returns in that league are unsustainable. If they were not, a very few managers would be managing most of the world's capital. But that is not the case. Yuki Tuesday, June 20, 2006, 9:36:27 AM, you wrote: MH Yuki: MH Thanks for your kind warning. However, you got it wrong. I am trading
Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Mark K.
You have every reason to be skeptical. But
"average" has its meaning. 126% doesn't mean every year. 2003was
spectacular, 2005was good, 2004was just flat and had the MDD. If you
ever traded a strictly mechanical system, you know the importance of repeatedly
comparing your RT results with backtest results of the same period to uncover
any curve fitting or other problems. The systemwas evolving based on
better understanding of the market (not re-optimized but adding a few new rules)
but the basic core has not changed.
Is it your understandingthat all systems
should haveSMOOTH equity curve? Do you think that 26% for the first half
has everything to do with the performance of the second half? I beg to differ
since I have seen 60% MONTHLY return (You may respond: How's that possible? How
can you get 720% per year? :-)). Unpredictable market conditions have the most
impact on performance.
The originalof this thread was somebody
asking if anybody making money with AmiBroker. To set the record straight, I use
both WL and AB. I use WL for backtesting, AB to explore and place orders to IB.
AB's backtester treats signals differently than WL which I think is the right
way. TJ has agreed to add a switch to make them behave the same in future
release.
Best Trading,
- Mark H.
- Original Message -
From:
MailYahoo
To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 4:55
PM
Subject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made
any money???
D,
I do not know what he
is, I am just trying to figure out a system that averages 126% annret
for 3 years, with a Mdd of about 40% and is only up 26% this year with 6
mths already gone
So to me he must be
up way over the 126% 2002 second half/2003/2005/ since his system is up only
26% for 2006 first half
I got real lucky with
my stocks this first half of the year, and am way up. But I still
consider it luck, since over 300% for 6 months to me is
luck.
Also anything back
tested is curve fitted, I understand that you said yours is Real Time
what you actually did the last 3 years, but then again you stated that
when you were down 40% you were up at night back testing your system to make
sure it was still viable. If you had RT results over the 3 years
why the need to back test if you were concerned? Curve fitting any
system will always give you great results. There is a reason why Fred
wrote his IO program with the walk forward.
Mark I am very glad
that you have made 126% annret year after year for the last 3 years that is
great. Just some of the statements you have made ie, back
testing when you are 40% down to validate your system does not make sense when
someone has made 126% annret over that time there is no need to back
test. Now if you re re-optimizing a trade system then that would be
another story.
The more you write
the more questions to post to this group
Good luck with your
great system and make millions
Mark
K
From:
amibroker@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:amibroker@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of dingoSent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 4:36
PMTo:
amibroker@yahoogroups.comSubject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made
any money???
He's just
jealous.. right Mark K.? 8-)
d
From:
amibroker@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:amibroker@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Mark HSent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 4:06
PMTo:
amibroker@yahoogroups.comSubject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody
made any money???
Mm... I sense something in the
way you asked questions.
But first of all, your math is
not good. To get 126% this year, I only need another 80%. (1.26 * 1.80 =
2.26).
Secondly I didn't state that I
expect 126% this year. I only said I got 126% average for the last 3 years.
In fact, I have no expectationand make no prediction. I just follow my
system. Be it -20% or 250%, as long as it is consistent with my system, I
would accept what the market gives me.
And finally as Ari Kiev pointed
out, if you believe it is impossible, of course, it is impossible to
you.
- Original Message -
From: MailYahoo
To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
Sent:
Tuesday, June 20, 2006 2:37 PM
Subject: RE:
[amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Mark,
So you are
up so far 26% this year
I
take it you expect to be up another 100% or so to make that 126%
annret?
Mark
From: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:amibroker@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Mark HSent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 2:23
PMTo: amibroker@yahoogroups.comSubject: Re: [amibroker] H
RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
dude, get over it. my best year i made about 2200% ... so i don't know what the surprise is. what matters is keeping the money - that's the hard part - not having the market grind it away - --- MailYahoo [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: D, I do not know what he is, I am just trying to figure out a system that averages 126% annret for 3 years, with a Mdd of about 40% and is only up 26% this year with 6 mths already gone So to me he must be up way over the 126% 2002 second half/2003/2005/ since his system is up only 26% for 2006 first half I got real lucky with my stocks this first half of the year, and am way up. But I still consider it luck, since over 300% for 6 months to me is luck. Also anything back tested is curve fitted, I understand that you said yours is Real Time what you actually did the last 3 years, but then again you stated that when you were down 40% you were up at night back testing your system to make sure it was still viable. If you had RT results over the 3 years why the need to back test if you were concerned? Curve fitting any system will always give you great results. There is a reason why Fred wrote his IO program with the walk forward. Mark I am very glad that you have made 126% annret year after year for the last 3 years that is great.Just some of the statements you have made ie, back testing when you are 40% down to validate your system does not make sense when someone has made 126% annret over that time there is no need to back test. Now if you re re-optimizing a trade system then that would be another story. The more you write the more questions to post to this group Good luck with your great system and make millions Mark K _ From: amibroker@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of dingo Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 4:36 PM To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com Subject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? He's just jealous.. right Mark K.?8-) d _ From: amibroker@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Mark H Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 4:06 PM To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? Mm... I sense something in the way you asked questions. But first of all, your math is not good. To get 126% this year, I only need another 80%. (1.26 * 1.80 = 2.26). Secondly I didn't state that I expect 126% this year. I only said I got 126% average for the last 3 years. In fact, I have no expectation and make no prediction. I just follow my system. Be it -20% or 250%, as long as it is consistent with my system, I would accept what the market gives me. And finally as Ari Kiev pointed out, if you believe it is impossible, of course, it is impossible to you. - Original Message - From: MailYahoo mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 2:37 PM Subject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? Mark, So you are up so far 26% this year I take it you expect to be up another 100% or so to make that 126% annret? Mark _ From: mailto:amibroker@yahoogroups.com amibroker@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Mark H Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 2:23 PM To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? Yes. It is some trend indicators based on major market indexes. Use Foreign functions. 26% is based on current equity and start equity of this year. I mentioned after DD since the system is currently experiencing a DD. There is a trick I can share with you: compare your system equity curve with the curve of market-based indicators, you may be able to find some correlation to improve your system by using some market-based rules to stay out of market or use higher leverage. - Original Message - From: dingo mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 1:45 PM Subject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? Thanks. You said your system is mechanical. Was the out of the market decision mechanical? If so, mind telling what method you used? Also, what do you mean by Up 26% this year (after DD)? d _ From: amibroker@yahoogroups.com [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Mark H Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 1:42 PM To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? === message truncated === __ Do You Yahoo!? Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around http://mail.yahoo.com Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ~-- Great things are happening at Yahoo! Groups. See the new email design. http://us.click.yahoo.com
Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Could you elaborate more on the your statement about WL and AB? quote: AB's backtester treats signals differently than WL which I think is the right way. TJ has agreed to add a switch to make them behave the same in future release. tks Paul On 6/20/06, Mark H [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Mark K. You have every reason to be skeptical. But average has its meaning. 126% doesn't mean every year. 2003was spectacular, 2005was good, 2004was just flat and had the MDD. If you ever traded a strictly mechanical system, you know the importance of repeatedly comparing your RT results with backtest results of the same period to uncover any curve fitting or other problems. The systemwas evolving based on better understanding of the market (not re-optimized but adding a few new rules) but the basic core has not changed. Is it your understandingthat all systems should haveSMOOTH equity curve? Do you think that 26% for the first half has everything to do with the performance of the second half? I beg to differ since I have seen 60% MONTHLY return (You may respond: How's that possible? How can you get 720% per year? :-)). Unpredictable market conditions have the most impact on performance. The originalof this thread was somebody asking if anybody making money with AmiBroker. To set the record straight, I use both WL and AB. I use WL for backtesting, AB to explore and place orders to IB. AB's backtester treats signals differently than WL which I think is the right way. TJ has agreed to add a switch to make them behave the same in future release. Best Trading, - Mark H. - Original Message - From: MailYahoo To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 4:55 PM Subject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? D, I do not know what he is, I am just trying to figure out a system that averages 126% annret for 3 years, with a Mdd of about 40% and is only up 26% this year with 6 mths already gone So to me he must be up way over the 126% 2002 second half/2003/2005/ since his system is up only 26% for 2006 first half I got real lucky with my stocks this first half of the year, and am way up. But I still consider it luck, since over 300% for 6 months to me is luck. Also anything back tested is curve fitted, I understand that you said yours is Real Time what you actually did the last 3 years, but then again you stated that when you were down 40% you were up at night back testing your system to make sure it was still viable. If you had RT results over the 3 years why the need to back test if you were concerned? Curve fitting any system will always give you great results. There is a reason why Fred wrote his IO program with the walk forward. Mark I am very glad that you have made 126% annret year after year for the last 3 years that is great. Just some of the statements you have made ie, back testing when you are 40% down to validate your system does not make sense when someone has made 126% annret over that time there is no need to back test. Now if you re re-optimizing a trade system then that would be another story. The more you write the more questions to post to this group Good luck with your great system and make millions Mark K From: amibroker@yahoogroups.com [mailto:amibroker@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of dingoSent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 4:36 PMTo: amibroker@yahoogroups.comSubject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? He's just jealous.. right Mark K.? 8-) d From: amibroker@yahoogroups.com [mailto:amibroker@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Mark HSent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 4:06 PMTo: amibroker@yahoogroups.comSubject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? Mm... I sense something in the way you asked questions. But first of all, your math is not good. To get 126% this year, I only need another 80%. (1.26 * 1.80 = 2.26). Secondly I didn't state that I expect 126% this year. I only said I got 126% average for the last 3 years. In fact, I have no expectationand make no prediction. I just follow my system. Be it -20% or 250%, as long as it is consistent with my system, I would accept what the market gives me. And finally as Ari Kiev pointed out, if you believe it is impossible, of course, it is impossible to you. - Original Message - From: MailYahoo To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com Sent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 2:37 PM Subject: RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? Mark, So you are up so far 26% this year I take it you expect to be up another 100% or so to make that 126% annret? Mark From: amibroker@yahoogroups.com [mailto:amibroker@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Mark HSent: Tuesday, June 20, 2006 2:23 PMTo: amibroker@yahoogroups.comSubject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? Yes. It is some trend indicators based on major market indexes. Use Foreign functions. 26% is based on current equity and start equity of this year. I mentioned after DD sincethe systemis currently
Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Share your strategy with us Mark.Dr Gaine$Mark H [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:Absolutely. Average 126% for the last three years. But you should know thatsoftwareare just tools and not money printing machines. It is what between your ears matters. - Original Message - From: tom_katch To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com Sent: Saturday, June 17, 2006 7:04 AM Subject: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money??? I own Amibroker software, and have the latest version (standard). I also have Metastock, Vectorvest and some other software. But I am sorry to say that Amibroker is the only software I ever bought that I did not study up on. I understand that most of the users are very pleased with it from looking at this forum. Most of the postings are of a technical nature, with questions as how to understand and use the software. But I don't recall seeing
postings from people noting their success in using the software. Have any of you had great/good/fair success in using it? Have you made a lot/some/little money with it? Maybe some of your positive comments will give me a kick in the ass, and I'll start on the 800 page manual.ThanksFred __Do You Yahoo!?Tired of spam? Yahoo! Mail has the best spam protection around http://mail.yahoo.com
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For other support material please check also:
http://www.amibroker.com/support.html
SPONSORED LINKS
Investment management software
Real estate investment software
Investment property software
Software support
Real estate investment analysis software
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To unsubscribe from this group, send an email to:[EMAIL PROTECTED]
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Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Hi Mark,
Glad to hear you don't bet the farm. ^_^
I was trading probably before the 'Wizard' writers were out of high
school.
And I believe Richard Dennis, whose successes were kind of the
inspiration for those books, eventually tapped out, as in blew the
whole bankroll. Pardon me if I have that wrong.
Nobody gets those returns consistently, and the basic reason behind
that statement being clearly true should be obvious: The geometrical
growth of the money would soon have such a successful trader with
such a large amount of capital that percentage return gets
progressively more and more difficult to keep in the stratosphere.
Eventually, position sizes become a problem because of market
liquidity. Or did you harken onto the grail? ^_-
Look at Warren Buffet's problem ... too much cash, not enough
qualifying opportunities. And he's not even a trader.
Of course, you could be talking un-compounded. But I still have
serious doubts about sustainability.
I stand by my statement that outsized returns, particularly the
super-jumbo outsized, require outsized risk. I haven't seen any
cases in which that risk didn't ultimately pose a problem. And I
also stand by my opinion that percentage returns in that league are
unsustainable. If they were not, a very few managers would be
managing most of the world's capital. But that is not the case.
Yuki
Tuesday, June 20, 2006, 9:36:27 AM, you wrote:
MH Yuki:
MH Thanks for your kind warning. However, you got it wrong. I am trading a
strict mechanical system including position sizing algorithm. So bet it all
is not applicable here. There were no big
bets and no big wins either. Just small bets and small wins/losses, and a lot
of them. Since you stated nobody gets those kind of returns, I would
recommend that you read a few of those
wizards/hitters books to get some inspiration.
MH Good trading,
MH - Mark H
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Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Yuki:
Of course, it is self-evident that nobody can get
100% every year otherwise he would own the whole world in less than 50 years
starting with $100.
That's not the point. The point is when you are
small, you should strive for high returns with reasonable drawdowns. Then when
you get to a few millions or higher, you should diversify your
investments/systems and get lower but steady returns. That's the goal for many
individual traders if they don't want to manage other
people'smoney.
As I read, many top traders were able to get
50-500% for 5-10yearswhen they started out. When you are big, it is
hard to get high returns since your moving in/out of the market
causesadverseprice movements.
Richard Dennis didn't blow his own bankroll. He
blew half of the fund he managed in 1987 because he violated his own principles
which he taught to the turtles. He stopped managing fund for a few years until
1994, when he started Dennis Trading Group. He was and still is a very wealthy
man.
Good trading,
- Mark
- Original Message -
From:
Yuki
Taga
To: Mark H
Sent: Monday, June 19, 2006 9:16 PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made
any money???
Hi Mark,Glad to hear you don't bet the farm. ^_^I was
trading probably before the 'Wizard' writers were out of
highschool.And I believe Richard Dennis, whose successes were kind
of theinspiration for those books, eventually tapped out, as in blew
thewhole bankroll. Pardon me if I have that wrong.Nobody gets
those returns consistently, and the basic reason behindthat statement
being clearly true should be obvious: The geometricalgrowth of the money
would soon have such a successful trader withsuch a large amount of
capital that percentage return getsprogressively more and more difficult
to keep in the stratosphere.Eventually, position sizes become a problem
because of marketliquidity. Or did you harken onto the grail?
^_-Look at Warren Buffet's problem ... too much cash, not
enoughqualifying opportunities. And he's not even a trader.Of
course, you could be talking un-compounded. But I still haveserious doubts
about sustainability.I stand by my statement that outsized returns,
particularly thesuper-jumbo outsized, require outsized risk. I haven't
seen anycases in which that risk didn't ultimately pose a problem. And
Ialso stand by my opinion that percentage returns in that league
areunsustainable. If they were not, a very few managers would
bemanaging most of the world's capital. But that is not the
case.YukiTuesday, June 20, 2006, 9:36:27 AM, you
wrote:MH Yuki:MH Thanks for your kind warning.
However, you got it wrong. I am trading a strict mechanical system including
position sizing algorithm. So "bet it all" is not applicable here. There were
no bigbets and no big wins either. Just small bets and small wins/losses,
and a lot of them. Since you stated "nobody gets those kind of returns", I
would recommend that you read a few of thosewizards/hitters books to get
some inspiration. MH Good trading,MH - Mark
H
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RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Hi Tom
Your email,
perhaps answers most of your questions.
The mailing list
is to assist members in using amibroker, by the amibroker user community, and
not necessarily for providing tips on trading.
However I am sure
if you require assistance to program your ideas n Amibroker, there would be
many members willing to assist you.
My personal
opinion, is that Amibroker is probably one of the most powerful tools
we have, in back testing and actually trading systems.
And, might I add,
you should definitely read the manual, before posting, out of courtesy to the
developer and the mailing list.
Regards
Dave
From: amibroker@yahoogroups.com [mailto:amibroker@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of tom_katch
Sent: Saturday, 17 June 2006 9:04
PM
To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [amibroker] Has anybody
made any money???
I own Amibroker software, and have the latest version
(standard). I
also have Metastock, Vectorvest and some other software. But I am
sorry to say that Amibroker is the only software I ever bought that I
did not study up on. I understand that most of the users are very
pleased with it from looking at this forum. Most of the postings are
of a technical nature, with questions as how to understand and use the
software. But I don't recall seeing postings from people noting their
success in using the software. Have any of you had great/good/fair
success in using it? Have you made a lot/some/little money with it?
Maybe some of your positive comments will give me a kick in the ass,
and I'll start on the 800 page manual.
Thanks
Fred
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RE: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Good question.
As a new user, it is good to know the answer also. :
Clement
From: amibroker@yahoogroups.com [mailto:amibroker@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of tom_katch
Sent: Saturday, June 17, 2006 7:04
PM
To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [amibroker] Has anybody
made any money???
I own Amibroker software, and have the latest version
(standard). I
also have Metastock, Vectorvest and some other software. But I am
sorry to say that Amibroker is the only software I ever bought that I
did not study up on. I understand that most of the users are very
pleased with it from looking at this forum. Most of the postings are
of a technical nature, with questions as how to understand and use the
software. But I don't recall seeing postings from people noting their
success in using the software. Have any of you had great/good/fair
success in using it? Have you made a lot/some/little money with it?
Maybe some of your positive comments will give me a kick in the ass,
and I'll start on the 800 page manual.
Thanks
Fred
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Re: [amibroker] Has anybody made any money???
Tom:
As an old MSer, I can assure you that AB beats MS in
most respects. However,software does not make profits (as your
question suggests) which are determinedbyhow effectively the trader
uses it. So, if you are happy with MS you will be at least as happy with
AB. Of course, to be happy with any software you have to know how to use
it. This board can help(you will not find actual trading discussed
here very often)but depending on your background you will have to spend
some time on the learning curve. Now bend over for that
kick.
Bill
- Original Message -
From: "tom_katch" [EMAIL PROTECTED]
To: amibroker@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Saturday, June 17, 2006 7:04
AM
Subject: [amibroker] Has anybody made any
money???
I own Amibroker software, and have the latest version (standard). I
also have Metastock, Vectorvest and some other software. But I am
sorry to say that Amibroker is the only software I ever bought that I
did not study up on. I understand that most of the users are very
pleased with it from looking at this forum. Most of the postings are
of a technical nature, with questions as how to understand and use the
software. But I don't recall seeing postings from people noting their
success in using the software. Have any of you had great/good/fair
success in using it? Have you made a lot/some/little money with it?
Maybe some of your positive comments will give me a kick in the ass,
and I'll start on the 800 page manual. Thanks
Fred
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