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> Crisis Looming Between U.S., Russia > > Summary > > CIA Director George Tenet recently singled out Russia as a > massive contributor to the spread of chemical, biological and > nuclear weapons. Despite the cooperation Moscow has given to > Washington's anti-terrorism campaign, the Bush administration is > putting the Russian government on notice. A severe crisis between > the two sides may now be forming. > > Analysis > > While speaking to the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee March > 19, CIA Director George Tenet singled out Russia as "the first > choice of proliferant states seeking the most advanced technology > and training" for weapons of mass destruction, Agence France- > Presse reported. Tenet added that Russian sales of technology and > expertise applicable to chemical, biological and nuclear weapons > were "a major source of funds for commercial and defense > industries and military research and development." > > Tenet's statement -- coming in the wake of a recent Pentagon > report naming seven countries, including Russia, as potential > nuclear targets -- was a bombshell. It places responsibility for > the spread of Russian weapons of mass destruction squarely on the > shoulders of the government in Moscow and sets the stage for a > coming confrontation with Russian President Vladimir Putin. > > STRATFOR has previously said that a new doctrine is emerging > within the Bush administration that is based on the following > logic: Al Qaeda is not dead and is dedicated to further attacks > on the United States. It has demonstrated the desire to obtain > chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, which represent a threat > to millions of American citizens. > > The United States must therefore both destroy al Qaeda and > eliminate any stockpiles of chemical, biological or nuclear > weapons that could find their way into the group's hands. The > fact that most of these stockpiles belong to sovereign nations > like Syria, Pakistan and Russia complicates the problem for > Washington but does not change the Bush administration's policy. > > If anything, ending the proliferation of weapons of mass > destruction (WMD) actually takes priority over destroying the al > Qaeda network. Terrorist networks can be badly hurt, but it is > incredibly difficult to destroy them completely. WMD stockpiles, > plus the accompanying facilities and skilled personnel, are > finite and are harder to regenerate than a terrorist network. > > Now the director of the CIA has named Russia as the key source of > WMD proliferation. Tenet stopped just short of explicitly placing > the blame on the Russian government, but at the same time, he > also did not blame rogue elements in the Russian security > services or mafia syndicates. This would have given Putin a > certain amount of deniability and raised the potential for Russia > to work with the United States -- like it did in the early 1990s > -- on decommissioning weapons of mass destruction. > > Instead, Tenet delivered a blunt message to Putin: the United > States believes that WMD proliferation is official Russian > policy. The government in Moscow must either immediately halt > this policy or face the consequences. > > Gone is any residual U.S. gratitude for Russian cooperation > during the early phases of the war in Afghanistan. The Bush > administration is maintaining that the threat posed to the United > States is so great that any and all other considerations -- > including diplomatic niceties -- must take a backseat. > > This represents the beginning of a severe crisis between the > United States and Russia. Putin must weigh his choices very > carefully. If he accepts U.S. demands and subordinates Russian > foreign policy to Washington again, he acknowledges that his > country has effectively become subservient to the United States. > This not only would be a bitter pill to swallow but also would > feed nationalist political and military elements within Russia > that currently challenge Putin's agenda. The president has > managed these groups so far, but a gesture of appeasement on this > scale would inflame the passions of even the most pro-Western > Russians. > > However, if Putin does not accept U.S. demands, he faces the > distinct possibility of attacks on Russian weapons facilities and > the potential elimination of his country's nuclear capability. > Such an outcome could very easily spark a coup in Russia, which > Putin would probably not survive. Even if he did manage to stay > in power, Putin's plan to rebuild Russia through economic > integration with Europe and closer short-term ties to the United > States would be destroyed. And in the worst-case -- but still > quite likely -- scenario, Russia would respond by launching a > nuclear attack on the United States. > > We are not yet at the point of crisis. The Bush administration > went public in order to put more pressure on Putin, likely after > getting few results from private consultations. Putin is in the > process of feeling out American resolve. He knows that Washington > has the means to carry out its threat; Putin is now trying to > figure out if it has the will. > ___________________________________________________________________ > --------------------------- ANTI-NATO INFORMATION LIST ==^================================================================ This email was sent to: archive@jab.org EASY UNSUBSCRIBE click here: http://topica.com/u/?a84x2u.a9617B Or send an email to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] T O P I C A -- Register now to manage your mail! http://www.topica.com/partner/tag02/register ==^================================================================
