NYTimes.com Article: Argentina's Stopgap Cash Gets Some Funny Looks

2001-08-28 Thread ATabarrok

This article from NYTimes.com 
has been sent to you by [EMAIL PROTECTED]

FYI my recent post.

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Argentina's Stopgap Cash Gets Some  Funny Looks

By LARRY ROHTER



LA PLATA, Argentina, Aug. 24 — It looks like money, fits into a
wallet like money, and the local government certainly hopes it will
be accepted as money.

 But Ángel Díaz, a policeman here, had his doubts after being paid
this week not with pesos, but with a new emergency currency called
the "patacón," printed by the provincial government.

 "Well, the electricity company accepted the patacón," he said,
"but the phone company wouldn't take them, the credit card company
also said no, and the gas company said I can only pay 30 percent of
my bill with them. The lack of confidence in this plan is obvious."

 Argentina may have secured an $8 billion credit line from the
International Monetary Fund this week, but the country's finances
continue to be chaotic.

 With the peso tied to the American dollar at a one-to-one rate and
the Central Bank unable to print new pesos unless it has the
dollars to back them, local governments like the one here find
themselves squeezed to the point that they cannot meet their
financial obligations. In a word, they are broke.

 "There is no other money to pay salaries, and there won't be for
several months to come, because everything indicates that the
crisis is going to deepen," Carlos Ruckauf, the governor of Buenos
Aires Province, warned last week. "Those who don't want to take
patacones are within their rights to go to court, but I don't have
the pesos to pay them. Paying with patacones is a necessity, not a
whim."

 The province of Buenos Aires surrounds the capital and is the most
populous of Argentina's 23 provinces, with one-third of the
country's 36 million people.

 In June, the provincial government tried to head off the looming
cash crunch by floating a bond abroad, but that plan was derailed
by the financial disorder enveloping the country.

 So this week the local government instead began paying its
suppliers and 180,000 employees and retirees with what is formally
called a "treasury letter in cancellation of obligations," a bond
redeemable at 7 percent interest next year.

 Issued in denominations from one to 100 and officially valued at
par with the dollar, the scrip was quickly renamed with a slang
term, meaning something like wampum, used by a character in a comic
book popular with generations of Argentines.

 Some businesses here, like McDonald's, have cautiously embraced
the new currency. On Wednesday, the chain put up signs announcing
"I believe in my country: I accept patacones" at its restaurants
here and began offering a special "Patacombo," consisting of two
cheeseburgers, medium fries and soft drink, for five patacones —
but only if the customer has exact change.

 "We can't give change back in pesos, dollars or patacones," said
Luis Sáenz, manager of a downtown branch. The Patacombo also costs
a dollar more than a Big Mac combo, which some skeptics have cited
as an example of local merchants hedging their bets by discounting
the new currency.

 In general, businesses that sell basic goods feel they are forced
to accept the patacón, despite their misgivings. "If our customers
are only going to have patacones, then we are going to have to take
them if we intend to stay in business," said Hugo Ríos, a
supermarket manager.

 But high-end shops and boutiques, like those selling electronic
goods and clothes, seem to have a different attitude. "I'm not
going to accept paper that is of no use to me," scoffed Diana
Lucki, owner of the Sonidos record store here.

 Diego Lozano, one of Ms. Lucki's suppliers, complained that the
scrip cannot be negotiated in Buenos Aires, an hour's drive from
here, and is not yet being accepted by any bank other than the
province's. As he sees it, the patacón is a depressing symbol of
the government's desperation and Argentina's decline.

 "We used to laugh at the Paraguayans with their guaranís and the
Peruvians with their soles," he said. "But what is a patacón? It
doesn't exist except in a comic strip. That we Argentines, with our
arrogance, should be obligated to accept this ridiculous currency
is ironic, a practical joke. No, it's worse than that: it's
disgraceful."

 Resistance has been even more pronounced among the people who are
to be paid in patacones. On Thursday, thousands of teachers and
court and hospital workers demonstrated outside the provincial
governor's palace, 

Re: Does the stock market do better under Democratic or Republican presidents?

2001-08-28 Thread Robin Hanson

Chris Rasch wrote:
>Found this at http://www.anderson.ucla.edu/alumni/assets/news.html.
>   Under Democratic presidents, the average excess
>   return of investments in the stock market over
>   the three-month Treasury bill is about 11
>   percent. Under Republicans, it is less than two
>   percent; a nine percent difference. Examination
>   of the risk-free interest rate produces another
>   noteworthy result: under Republicans, the real
>   T-bill rate is, on average, higher than the
>   rate under Democrats by more than three
>   percent. ..., the two
>   researchers control for a vast number of
>   macroeconomic variables, such as an indicator
>   of recessions, the slope of the yield curve and
>   credit spreads of bonds, that help remove the
>   effect of business cycle fluctuations.  Their
>   surprising results hold: returns under
>   Democrats are still, on average, higher.  ...
>   market volatility, a measure of risk, is
>   actually higher under Republican presidents.

A straightforward way to find out if speculators think this a real relation
or a coincidence is to get market estimates of stock and bond prices
*conditional* on the party of the next president. (The mechanics of doing
this are described at http://hanson.gmu.edu/decisionmarkets.pdf)  I predict
that speculators would estimate a *much* smaller than 9pt difference,
if any, between Republican vs. Democrat stock returns.


Robin Hanson  [EMAIL PROTECTED]  http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-
703-993-2326  FAX: 703-993-2323



SDAE Graduate Student Paper Competition

2001-08-28 Thread Technotranscendence

From: Peter Boettke [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Sent: Sunday, August 26, 2001 12:39 PM
Subject: [HAYEK-L:] SDAE Graduate Student Paper Competition


The Society for the Development of Austrian Economics Graduate Student Paper
Competition is to be held again.  If a PhD students (preferably ABD) and
interested in attending the SDAE meeting and presenting your work, please
submit a paper and a cv to Peter Boettke by September 15th.  The award is
for $1,000 and there will be 3 prizes given out. Previous winners are not
eligible.  The $1000 is to off-set expenses to attend the meetings. This
year the meetings will be held on November 17-19 in Tampa, FL, and as always
in conjunction with the Southern Economic Association.

For more information on the SDAE see http://it.stlawu.edu/sdae/

Electronic submissions are acceptable.

Pete

Dr. Peter J. Boettke, Deputy Director
James M. Buchanan Center for Political Economy
Department of Economics
George Mason University, MSN 3G4
Fairfax, VA 22030
(703) 993-1149
fax (703) 993-1133
email: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
homepage: http://www.gmu.edu/departments/economics/pboettke