Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets
FYI, our DARPA project (www.policyanalysismarket.com) has just been denounced by two senators: http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030- 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
California Recall
Ok - let's put game theory to the test: what is the normal form of declaring your candidcay for California governer-game? What's the predicted outcome? And what would Robin Hanson wager on the answer? Fabio
Re: California Recall
In a message dated 7/28/03 9:10:55 PM, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes: Ok - let's put game theory to the test: what is the normal form of declaring your candidcay for California governer-game? What's the predicted outcome? And what would Robin Hanson wager on the answer? Fabio If I weren't so broke that I just got a power disconnection notice, I'd wager $10 that Davis will be recalled--and then win reelection. I try never to underestimate the ability of the GOP, especially the CA GOP, to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. David
Re: California Recall
On Mon, 28 Jul 2003, fabio guillermo rojas wrote: Ok - let's put game theory to the test: what is the normal form of declaring your candidcay for California governer-game? What's the predicted outcome? And what would Robin Hanson wager on the answer? Fabio It seems that optimal strategy for Democrats is to choose one candidate and pay off the others not to run, and hope the GOP vote is split. The GOP candidates would like to do the same, but at least 3 candidates (Issa, Riordan, Simon) seem certain to run, suggesting that they think have a real chance in a 4 way contest (3 GOP's, 1 Dem). It doesn't seem that Issa stands a chance against a strong Dem (Feinstein, for ex), and his presence just splits the GOP vote. I'd venture that Issa can afford to be a political bad boy. Given that Issa's already started to run, why would any GOP sign up? They would have to fight Issa and steal centrist Dems. Very up hill battle. Fabio
Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets
I've been raring to go with the pam markets for a while now -- condolences. Many people here are probably aware of it, but you can also check out (and participate in!) the Iowa Electronic Markets online at the University of Iowa, http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/ which have a reasonable track record for political markets -- perhaps you can petition them to run a market for Arnold in CA. At 02:56 PM 7/28/2003 -0400, you wrote: FYI, our DARPA project (www.policyanalysismarket.com) has just been denounced by two senators: http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030- 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
