Re: Senators Denounce Policy Analysis Markets
Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit) blogged about the DARPA project controversy: THE PENTAGON WANTS TO USE A FUTURES MARKET http://nytimes.com/2003/07/29/politics/29TERR.html to predict terror attacks. Although this is getting a lot of criticism (mostly from members of Congress who, I suspect, couldn't accurately describe the operation of /existing/ futures markets) I think it's an excellent example of creative thinking, and the Pentagon deserves to be congratulated for it. As I've suggested before (here http://www.techcentralstation.com/1051/defensewrapper.jsp?PID=1051-350CID=1051-041603A, here, http://www.techcentralstation.com/1051/defensewrapper.jsp?PID=1051-350CID=1051-021203A and especially here http://techcentralstation.com/1051/techwrapper.jsp?PID=1051-250CID=1051-103002A) the diffuse, fast-moving threat of terrorism requires a diffuse, fast-moving response. And this sounds like a very plausible way of recruiting a lot of minds in the service of anti-terrorism. Josh Chafetz agrees: http://www.oxblog.blogspot.com/2003_07_27_oxblog_archive.html#105943317047655345 A futures market in terrorist attacks, while it sounds grisly, may help us to aggregate diffuse knowledge in a way that will prove superior to expert knowledge. It also may not, but it seems to me that it's worth a try. At the very least, if we're going to demand that the government get creative in fighting terror, we shouldn't be so quick to criticize when it does just that. Yep. UPDATE: Reader Fred Butzen emails: The story about the Pentgon's terrorism market clearly is an extension of Iowa Electronic Markets, which has been run for years by the University of Iowa's Tippett School of Business. Here's a link to the Iowa Information Market's web site: Link http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/ In brief, the IEM lets persons place bets on the likelihood of given events' happening; for example, people could bet on the likelihood that Saddam Hussein will survive this year, or who will win the next presidential election. The collective expertise of the participants has proven to be extremely useful in predicting events. The notion that the dim-bulbs in Congress and the media should attack such a useful and proven idea as the Pentagon's is utterly absurd. This is absolutely right. Whether or not the Pentagon's idea is a good one depends on details I don't know about. But the lame criticism makes clear that the critics are -- as usual -- clueless on the subject. ANOTHER UPDATE: Mitch Berg points out http://www.mitchberg.com/shotindark/2003_07_01_archive.html#105948759942593174 that this approach has worked in the past. posted at 08:44 AM by *Glenn Reynolds* http://www.instapundit.com/archives/010668.php Robin Hanson wrote: FYI, our DARPA project (www.policyanalysismarket.com) has just been denounced by two senators: http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html Robin Hanson [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://hanson.gmu.edu Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030- 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
[Fwd: [wta-talk] Futures Market to Predict Terror Canned by Pentagon]
Hmmm...seems like like DARPA's going to kill the project. Original Message Subject:[wta-talk] Futures Market to Predict Terror Canned by Pentagon Date: Tue, 29 Jul 2003 12:13:32 -0400 From: Hughes, James [EMAIL PROTECTED] Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] CC: [EMAIL PROTECTED], [EMAIL PROTECTED] WTAer/Extropian and GMU economist Robin Hanson was involved in this project. Looks like it was seriously misunderstood. - J. http://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/29/politics/29WIRE-PENT.html July 29, 2003 Pentagon Said to Abandon Plan for Futures Market on Terror By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS WASHINGTON -- The Pentagon will abandon a plan to establish a futures market to help predict terrorist strikes, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee said Tuesday. Sen. John Warner, R-Va., said he spoke by phone with the program's director, and we mutually agreed that this thing should be stopped. Warner announced the decision not long after Senate Democratic Leader Thomas Daschle took to the floor to denounce the program as an incentive actually to commit acts of terrorism. Warner made the announcement during a confirmation hearing for retired Gen. Peter J. Schoomaker, nominated to be Army chief of staff.
Free State Project
Hi, Those of you with an interest in political reform and innovation may wish to check out the Free State Project. (http://www.freestateproject.org). The idea is to concentrate 20,000 libertarian activists in a small-population state, so that they will have sufficient voting power to win political office. From the web site: ...The Free State Project is a plan in which 20,000 or more liberty-oriented people will move to a single state of the U.S., where they may work within the political system to reduce the size and scope of government. The success of the Free State Project would likely entail reductions in burdensome taxation and regulation, reforms in state and local law, an end to federal mandates, and a restoration of constitutional federalism, demonstrating the benefits of liberty to the rest of the nation and the world When you become a member, you agree to move to the Free State once 20,000 people have made the same pledge, within 5 years of reaching the 20 K mark. When 5000 people sign up, a vote on the state will be held. Currently 10 states are in the running: New Hampshire, Wyoming, Vermont, Maine, Delaware, Alaska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Idaho, and Montana. What 20,000 libertarian activists could accomplish: http://www.freestateproject.org/strategies.htm State comparisons: http://www.freestateproject.org/state.htm The appeal for the libertarian-minded is obvious, but non-libertarians may also be interested. Since the chosen state will be as free as the FSP can make it, if the state becomes a hell-hole, then those opposed to libertarian ideas can use it as an object lesson. Socialists could also use the same strategy --move 20 K socialist activists to Vermont, say, and implement the Guaranteed Universal Income, strict environmental regulations, gun bans, high import taxes, a highly progressive tax system, and increased welfare and public school programs. Whatever happens, the comparison between the two states should be very interesting. So far, the membership has reached 4700+, and the vote for the state is expected to be completed by September 8, 2003. Questions: 1) What reforms do you think should be the FSP's first priorities? 2) Assuming the FSP is successful, I expect that the Free State will become increasingly prosperous. As it does so, I predict that increasing numbers people will be attracted by the jobs, who have little understanding of the link between freedom and economic prosperity. What could the FSP members do to help ensure that the newly won freedoms won't be eroded by future generations of pro-government immigrants? Chris
