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- http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2002/08/02/200208020048.asp
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China Will Soon Be Second Only To The
US The Korea Herald 8-4-2
- Over the coming decades, China will become a
thoroughly new form of political and economic entity. Brutally
competitive in both politics and world markets, innovative and
resilient, China will be more dominant than any nation save
America.
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- Such a shift in the global balance of power occurs
only about once every century and is comparable to the emergence of
the U.S. power a century ago. The magnitude of this change is due, in
part, to a radical and rapid shift in China's governance. Because of
its suddenness, it is tempting to write this shift off as a fluke. But
China's restructuring is permanent and will affect every aspect of its
national life, as well as its global standing.
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- The People's Republic now embodies two systems: the
centralized, autocratic Communist administration, dominated by an
outdated ideology and military interests, and the decentralized
free-market economic regime. Whether deliberately or not, China is
reorganizing itself to balance central authority and common purpose
with decentralized freedom, in the same way that nimble companies
balance home-office and divisional control. The result is an entirely
new geopolitical model - the country as corporation.
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- Call the new China "Chung-hua, Inc." (Chunghua
translates as "China" and actually means "the prosperous center of the
universe.") Like many corporations, China is moving most
decision-making to the "business unit" level - semi-autonomous,
self-governing economic region-states that compete fiercely against
each other for capital, technology, and human resources (just as
America's states do).
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- This new, decentralized free-market regime currently
encompasses only a small part of China's vast territory, and many
Chinese officials still refuse to acknowledge its existence. Indeed,
only seven years ago, the word "federation" was banned from the
Chinese language; companies like Federal Transport or Federation
Merchants were required to change their names. Today, China has the
most federal governance structure of any large nation except the
United States.
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- Two broad categories of region-states exist. The
first are relatively small, composed of cities and their surrounding
areas, generally with a population of 5-7 million people. Some of
these - Shenzhen, Shanghai, Dalian, Tianjin, Shenyang, Xiamen,
Qingdao, and Suzhou - are now growing economically at a rate of 15-20
percent per year - faster than such Asian "tigers" as Malaysia,
Taiwan, Thailand and Korea ever did. These smaller region-states, in
turn, are propelling the growth of larger mega-regions, with
populations approaching 100 million each.
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- The mega-regions, which tend to share common
dialects, ethnic identities, and histories, are becoming economic
powerhouses in their own right. If they were separate nations, five of
them - the Yangtze Delta, the Northeastern Tristates area (formerly
known as Manchuria), the Pearl River Delta, the Beijing-Tianjin
corridor, and Shandong - would rank among Asia's 10 largest
economies.
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- Regional governments have also been toughened up by
the Chung-hua, Inc. ethic. Most officials are appointed, not elected.
Not only are they held to targets of 7-percent annual economic growth
or better (like many corporate executives), they must also improve
environmental quality, build better infrastructure, and reduce local
crime levels. In October 2001, a half-dozen bureaucrats were expelled
from one of China's major cities for not meeting their economic growth
and security targets.
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- Local officials are often considered heroes, not
oppressors. In January 2001, Bo Xhi Lai, then mayor of Dalian, was
promoted to governor of Liaoning province. Thousands of women, many in
tears, spontaneously came to a park to bid him farewell. During his
nine-year tenure, Dalian evolved from a ramshackle port into one of
the cleanest and most prosperous cities in Asia. It now has a street
life more vibrant than Singapore, a layout reminiscent of Paris before
the automobile, and a reputation among Japanese tourists for
high-quality hotels, transportation and restaurants.
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- All of this is taking place in a nation where
Communist ideology remains strong and that remains in many respects a
military dictatorship which threatens to conquer Taiwan by force, as
well as using North Korea, Pakistan and Libya as stalking horses for
weapons development. Introduction of foreign companies, technologies,
and unfettered mobility for corporations and people would all be
viewed as a threat to the Communist system "if" it were publicly
acknowledged.
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- Instead, China's highest officials publicly insist
that they run the most centrally controlled government in the world,
with full authority to appoint or dismiss mayors, governments and
bureaucrats. Strictly speaking, they are right. But they dare not
overrun the open, commercial ethic of China's region-states - the
source of their country's prosperity.
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- So debates about China should not be cast as a
simple matter of right or wrong, but of when and how. Politically,
China is comparable to the United States in 1800: an emerging nation
with high ideals but widespread poverty and many practices that others
find intolerable. A decade or two of economic freedom and growth will
give China's people an appetite for self-determination and
participation that may surprise the rest of us. Already, some village
leaders are elected; this may slowly spread to regional officials, and
then upward to the central government.
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- Even top communists appear to acknowledge and
embrace change. Recently, China's head of state, Jiang Zemin, said
that the Communist Party "represents" every good aspect of China,
including wealthy capitalists, not just the poor, the exploited and
the proletariat. We should not be surprised if soon - perhaps at the
Party's 2002 General Assembly - China's leaders formally call for a
new doctrine to match its new model.
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- Kenichi Ohmae is one of the world's leading business
strategists. He is president of Ohmae & Associates and has advised
many of Japan's governments. - Ed.
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- Copyright: Project Syndicate
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- http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/SITE/data/html_dir/2002/08/02/200208020048.asp
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