[Aus-soaring] Another fatality

[opsworx opsworx]

Goondiwindi fatal 

___
Aus-soaring mailing list
Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au
http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring

Re: [Aus-soaring] Contact details for Conrad Bolton

[opsworx opsworx]

Justin,

talk to Laurie Hoffman. He has contact details.

Regards


Peter Heath.

-- Original Message --
From: "Tom And Jane" 
To: "Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia." 


Sent: Friday, 26 May, 2017 At 9:02 PM
Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] Contact details for Conrad Bolton

Conrad was running a crop spraying business at Wee Waa.

Tom

Sent from my iPhone


On 26 May 2017, at 8:10 pm, Justin Couch  wrote:

Trying to find the details for Conrad. Former mayor of Narrabri but I 
can't dig up his contact details anywhere that aren't linked to his 
former local government account. He apparently owns the wreck of 
(ex-)HDC, a DG202 that's currently sitting in an abandoned trailer at 
Camden.


--
Justin Couch http://www.vlc.com.au/
Java 3D Graphics Informationhttp://www.j3d.org/
LinkedIn http://au.linkedin.com/in/justincouch/
G+   WetMorgoth
---
"Look through the lens, and the light breaks down into many lights.
Turn it or move it, and a new set of arrangements appears... is it
a single light or many lights, lights that one must know how to
distinguish, recognise and appreciate? Is it one light with many
frames or one frame for many lights?"  -Subcomandante Marcos
---
___
Aus-soaring mailing list
Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au
http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring


___
Aus-soaring mailing list
Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au
http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring



___
Aus-soaring mailing list
Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au
http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring

Re: [Aus-soaring] Battery shipment

[opsworx opsworx]

Hi Bernard,
you cannot just add batteries to a shipment as they are classified as 
dangerous goods.



 They need to be correctly packaged and declared otherwise it may cost 
you a significant amount AND you won't get the batteries either. 



Regards


Peter Heath.


-- Original Message --
From: "Future Aviation Pty. Ltd." 
To: "Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia." 


Sent: Thursday, 6 Apr, 2017 At 2:53 PM
Subject: [Aus-soaring] Battery shipment
Hello all

I’m trying to get some batteries from Germany and Australia and I would 
like 

to hear from anyone who is prepared to have them included in his or her 
shipment.


Any replies please to: ec...@internode.on.net 
 .



Thank you!


Bernard 
___
Aus-soaring mailing list
Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au
http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring 

___
Aus-soaring mailing list
Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au
http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring

Re: [Aus-soaring] weather models

[opsworx opsworx]

Mike, 
sitting in the disaster coord centre. have a look at the mackay radar. 
Classic high intensity cyclone with the hole in the middle. 



Peter Heath  

-- Original Message --
From: "Mike Borgelt" 
To: "Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia." 


Sent: Monday, 27 Mar, 2017 At 7:24 PM
Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] weather models
 Ooh look, the models are converging less than 15 hours before 10am 
tomorrow! Real measured updates to re-initialise obviously work.
 Note however the difference between the models on maximum windspeed 
and extent of high wind area. It will be interesting to see the further 
convergence after more observational input updates.

 Mike



 At 03:03 PM 3/27/2017, you wrote:
 Those who have a touching faith in weather models might like to look 
at www.ventusky.com   and check where the 
cyclone will be at 10am tomorrow and what the wind speeds will be around 
it.

 The redo with the other 2 models.
 Mike



 Borgelt Instruments - design & manufacture of quality soaring 
instrumentation since 1978

   www.borgeltinstruments.com 
 tel:   07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784
 mob: 042835 5784 :  int+61-42835 5784
 P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia
 ___
 Aus-soaring mailing list
 Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au
  http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring 

 Borgelt Instruments - design & manufacture of quality soaring 
instrumentation since 1978

   www.borgeltinstruments.com
   tel:   07 4635 
5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784

 mob: 042835 5784 :  int+61-42835 5784
 P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia   
___

Aus-soaring mailing list
Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au
http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring 



___
Aus-soaring mailing list
Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au
http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring

Re: [Aus-soaring] Jantar aileron pin local machinists?

[opsworx]

Jsutin, 

what's your phone number. I have a solution for your machining.

Regards

Peter Heath. 



 Justin Couch  wrote: 

=
Last year we had some pins made up for a Jantar 2 aileron drive from AOG 
Specialists up in Coffs Harbour. I would like to get some more made up, 
however emails are now bouncing and their phone number is disconnected.

Looking for some recommendations, preferably around the Sydney area, 
though not mandatory, for someone that could make some more up. I have 
all the paperwork in place, just need someone to do the work.

-- 
Justin Couch http://www.vlc.com.au/
Java 3D Graphics Informationhttp://www.j3d.org/
LinkedIn http://au.linkedin.com/in/justincouch/
G+   WetMorgoth
---
"Look through the lens, and the light breaks down into many lights.
  Turn it or move it, and a new set of arrangements appears... is it
  a single light or many lights, lights that one must know how to
  distinguish, recognise and appreciate? Is it one light with many
  frames or one frame for many lights?"  -Subcomandante Marcos
---
___
Aus-soaring mailing list
Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au
http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring

___
Aus-soaring mailing list
Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au
http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring

Re: [Aus-soaring] Any towballs heading east from Perth?

[opsworx]

Justin, consider putting it on the train to Parkes then picking up. Very cost 
effective.  I had looked at bringing a truck from Perth and it was cheaper than 
the fuel let alone other costs with less potential for damege, wheel bearings, 
chassis cracks  etc. .  

Peter Heath 




 Justin Couch  wrote: 

=
Purchasing a glider in WA and would like to bring it east. I'm in 
Sydney, but happy to meet anywhere over to Adelaide/Melbourne etc. 
Trailer is an old Komet with a single seater in it, and in OK condition. 
Not ready to bring the trailer today, but anywhere (probably) 2-6 weeks 
from now would be ideal. Obviously, will cough up some cash for the fuel 
etc.

-- 
Justin Couch http://www.vlc.com.au/
Java 3D Graphics Informationhttp://www.j3d.org/
LinkedIn http://au.linkedin.com/in/justincouch/
G+   WetMorgoth
---
"Look through the lens, and the light breaks down into many lights.
  Turn it or move it, and a new set of arrangements appears... is it
  a single light or many lights, lights that one must know how to
  distinguish, recognise and appreciate? Is it one light with many
  frames or one frame for many lights?"  -Subcomandante Marcos
---
___
Aus-soaring mailing list
Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au
http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring

___
Aus-soaring mailing list
Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au
http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring

Re: [Aus-soaring] Comparing accident rates

[opsworx]

Be aware that the accident reporting system some years ago going into the GFA 
system was significantly deficient.  In one state reporting was running at 
about  50 -70% of the claims rate.  

If we had not seen a change in the culture,  discussions were going to be taken 
with the insurance industry to obtain actual claims data.   


 Peter Heath 





 Teal  wrote: 

=


On 10/03/2016 6:50 PM, Texler, Michael wrote:
>>   I've not seen them described that way in the road safety literature that 
>> I'm familiar with. How would that work? If the number of accidents is on the 
>> Y axis, what variable would the X axis have? If we go with road accidents 
>> (my field of expertise) it can't be age/driving experience, because the 
>> accident stats in NO way form a poisson distribution  when age/experience is 
>> your X-axis variable. (Actually, road prangs by age/experience gives you 
>> more of a U-shaped curve.) Also, rate of accidents (be they road prangs or 
>> glider prangs) aren't constant over time (as required for a poisson 
>> distribution to be your distribution of
> choice) - they vary by time of day, for fairly obvious reasons, as well as 
> other things (day of the week, long weekends, etc etc).
>
>> You appear to be approaching the issue from a rather different statistical 
>> approach to the ones I'm familiar with. Could you spell out your 
>> approach/methods in more detail? It's always interesting to hear how folk in 
>> other fields approach problems I'm familiar with. :-)
> I am approaching it as counting events occurring over a duration of time 
> (analogous to say counting disintegrations per second for radioactive decay).
>
> Y axis would be the accident rate with any metric that you care to choose 
> (i.e. accidents per 1,000 hours flown, accidents per 100km travelled, 
> accidents per 1,000 flights etc.).
> Y axis would be a duration of time, i.e over one year, over 10 years, over 
> 100 years.
>
> Then it is a case of using the appropriate test to compare the two groups 
> (null hypothesis being that the accident rate between two groups is the same).

I'm afraid I'm still not with you. *Which* two groups, exactly? 
Displaying all recorded traffic accidents over time in that way will (if 
you use Australian data) give you a single line that (depending on the 
period covered, but lets go with "the last 20 years") trends downward 
over time. Who are you comparing again whom, in your example?

> A fairly blunt measure granted.
>
> Given your experience with road accidents analysis, how would you approach it?

Well, it would depend on exactly which question was being asked.  If we 
were interested in the numbers of accidents had by drivers of different 
ages, my previous example (up in the first para quoted above) was a 
simple descriptive graph showing difference in number of accidents by 
age, for a set amount of time (a year, say). Or we could do it another 
way, and have a graph with dates along the X axis, and separate lines 
(one for each age group, maybe 16-25, 26-35 and so on) showing how 
accident numbers have changed over time for each age group, if we were 
interested in seeing if there were any obvious differences in crash 
rates over time by age group.

Or, if the question whether a particular time of day is more crash-prone 
than other times, we could graph all the accidents occurring in the last 
year with the X axis showing hours of the day (midnight-0200, 0201-0400, 
etc). Or whatever.  All this is pretty basic stuff. We could go on from 
there, and report means and standard deviations for age groups/time 
periods/whatever of interest, and see if anything leaps out in terms of 
obvious differences or trends. But that still isn't going to get you 
anything you might want to discuss using null hypotheses or p values ... 
for that you really do need actual *inferential* statistical tests, with 
specific groups that you are comparing. And this broad-brush descriptive 
approach isn't going to give you that. You need to narrow it down a bit.

So: lets come back to the original topic that started all this - glider 
accidents. How would I approach that?

Well, first would be deciding exactly what question I want an answer to. 
Do I want to know if the glider prang rate is increasing or decreasing 
over time? Or do I want to know whether more crashes are happening in 
comps than in cross-country gliding?  Or how the glider crash rate as a 
whole compares with the number of motorcycle crashes for a given period?

Lets go with the last one, since we were also discussing that earlier. 
Firstly, getting a good source of data for *both* of those elements in 
the comparison is tricky. So I'm gonna handwave past that and assume 
that we have good quality data on both of these, including exposure data 
(i.e. how much time was spent per pilot/cyclist actually flying/cycling 
during that time period), because exposure is critical for topics like