Re: Energy Independence

2006-11-28 Thread Alberto Vieira Ferreira Monteiro
JDG wrote:

 As another example, there is the famous quote from a former
 Secretary-General of OPEC that the stone age didn't end because the
 world ran out of stone, and the oil age will end long before the world
 runs out of oil.When the oil age does end, however, I'd be willing
 to bet that the very last barrels of oil will probably come out of Saudi
 Arabia - since that's where the cheapest oil in the world comes from.

My bet is that we will run out of _oxygen_ before running out of
fossil fuels.

Alberto Monteiro
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RE: Library book sales - huzzah!

2006-11-28 Thread Ritu

 Doug wrote:

 Not a git, maru

Ah, wisdom. :)

Ritu

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RE: Someone Must Tell Them

2006-11-28 Thread Ritu
JDG asked:

  The survey, of 2,011 international travelers in 16 countries, was
  conducted by RT Strategies, a Virginia-based polling firm, for the 
  Discover America Partnership, a group launched in September with 
  multimillion-dollar backing from a range of companies that 
 include the
  InterContinental Hotels Group, Anheuser Busch and Walt Disney Parks
 and
  Resorts.
 
  What is the reputation of RT Strategies? Given the client list, I'd
  assume that the company has a good reputation in the market 
 and knows
  what it is doing.
 
 OK, and what countries exactly rated higher than the United
 States on this List?

The closes rivals in terms of being unfriendly to travelers were the Mid
East and the Indian Subcontinent, in that order.

Ritu

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RE: Iraq Re: Someone Must Tell Them

2006-11-28 Thread Ritu
JDG wrote:

 --- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], Ritu [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  Similarly, I find the notion of bombing a people into democracy and
  gratitude stupid. And I really honestly do not believe that Bush's 
  failure of imagination and my recognition of the same makes me 
  responsible for Saddam's crimes, or the hypothetical continuation 
  thereof.
 
 
 And I find the notion of winning gratitude while standing
 idly by as a megalamoniac dictator terrorizes the population, 
 starts futile wars with his neighbors, and leaves his country 
 impoversihed while completely enriching himself to be even stupider.
 
 See, I can mock your position as easily as you can mock mine

*g*

Would have worked better had that really been my position. :) But I
don't think I've ever said anything that can be construed to mean that
one can stand by idly while others are being tortured/killed and earn
gratitude that way. So hold on to these lines and trot them out when I
do make such a silly proposition. :)

  Now if there had been a serious attempt to find a different, less
  destructive way to get rid of Saddam before the invasion and the
 tarring
  of every opposer as a supporter of Saddam you might have
 had a point.
  But there wasn't, and therefore you don't.
 
 
 You wouldn't be referring to the generally-supposed policy of
 France, Russia, and China, among others, to work towards the 
 lifting of
 sanctions on Saddam Hussein's Iraq, would you?   

No I wasn't refering to that at all. If you re-read my lines above,
you'd see that I was talking of alternate ways to remove Saddam, and not
on the totally different subject of removal of sanctions.

 On the other hand, the policy of sanctions, No-Fly-Zones,
 diplomatic isolation, etc. was given something on the order 
 of 10+ years to work.

And, to refresh my memory, which one of these policies was aimed at
*removing* Saddam instead of containing him, and neutralising the threat
posed by him?

 If a American Republicans/conservatives were proposing
 sticking with a policy that had failed for 10+ years, I 
 wonder what your reaction would have been...

*shrug*

Depends on the issue, the costs and who'd be paying them, how strongly I
feel about a subject, and a host of other factors. You'd have to propose
a hypothetical situation to find out how I'd  react.

But one thing I can say for sure, I would react the same way whether the
notion was proposed by a Democrat or a Republican. I respond to the
idea, not to the proposer. :)

Ritu

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RE: Iraq Re: Someone Must Tell Them

2006-11-28 Thread Ritu

Doug wrote:

  AQ wants to prolong
 the violence because they are aware that Americans have a 
 limited amount of patience; that by prolonging the violence 
 they will force us to leave.  

I'll disagree with you here. I do not think that AQ wants the US to
withdraw. Not right now at any rate. A couple of captured AQ documents
clearly indicate that AQ is hoping that the US stays in Iraq for a long
time to come. The American presence in Iraq is accomplishing what OBL
had hoped the Afghanistan war would do - act as a motivator and
radicalise the Muslim youth, and provide a target for the new recruits
to practice on. Some analysts and intelligence institutions have already
pointed toward a trend wherein jihadis get their 'training' in Iraq and
then move to Afghanistan.

Also, it is a drain on your economy and OBL is on record about wanting
that. He has said as much in a letter about Iraq. Another cache of
letters, caught when Zwahiri was killed, showed that AQ is also worried
that it doesn't have enough representation in Iraq [estimates about AQ
involvement put them at about 5-10% of the Iraqi insurgents/whatever the
current term might be]. So if the US withdraws, AQ is not sure that they
have enough of a toe-hold to stay on in Iraq.

None of this means, of course, that they wouldn't crow to high heaven
and proclaim victory the minute a departure is announced.

Ritu

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RE: Iraq Re: Someone Must Tell Them

2006-11-28 Thread Ritu
Finally!

I have been reading excerpts but it took me almost the entire day to
work my way down to this message.

JDG wrote:

 Ritu, it seems that you, Nick, and even Dan missed the point here.
 
 The proposition was made here that the US is responsible for all the
 deaths currently occuring in Iraq.   While this was a reasonable
 proposition when the deaths in Iraq were occuring largely as
 a result of US military action, or else as a result of an 
 anti-US insurgency in
 Iraq, that no longer seems to be the case.   As the events of the past
 week have painfully demonstrated, the predominant form of 
 violence in Iraq is of an inter-sectarian kind as the various 
 Iraqi factions jockey for position in the post-Saddam order.

Well, actually it is more than that. That sentence well describes what
was happening earlier. Now we have a civil war. And that is infinitely
bloodier than any jockeying-for-position.

And as for the blame, John, well, consider this: In 1947, India was
partitioned. We asked for the partition, we agreed to it, and it was
carried out. But a lot still blame the British for the Partition, and
insist that they could have done more, not only to prevent it but also
to ensure that it was less violent. Because they were the ones with the
power, and they were the ones who could have done it.

Now Iraqis didn't ask for the invasion. They didn't ask for an
occupation. And they certainly didn't ask for a bungled occupation where
no attempts were ever made to see if the secular nature of the Iraqi
state could survive Saddam's downfall. They also didn't ask for a govt
so enfeebled by a lack of decent police and army that it cannot maintain
order within its own borders. All these things were decided by the
Coalition. So I am not sure why you think that the responsibility for
enabling this sectarian madness shouldn't fall on the Coalition too.

 In my mind, if one is to blame the US for these deaths, then
 the alternative would be to support the prolonged the 
 perpetuation of Saddam Hussein or similar ad infinitum as a 
 means of holding the country
 together.  

Yes, I know you think that way. 

But I don't and I have never advocated that Saddam should have carried
on just so Iraq doesn't break up. It is not an 'either-or' situation,
John. You don't need a genocidal maniac as a dictator to keep a country
together. A strong efficient govt does the trick.

  Alternatively, I suppose you could explain why you think
 that there would have been less sectarian violence in Iraq if
 the regime of Saddam Hussein (or similar) had only collapsed 
 *without* 150,000+ US troops on the ground trying to help 
 keep the peace...

Right after you explain why you assume I think that. :)

Ritu

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RE: Iraq Re: Someone Must Tell Them

2006-11-28 Thread Dan Minette


 -Original Message-
 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
 Behalf Of Ritu
 Sent: Tuesday, November 28, 2006 3:37 AM
 To: 'Killer Bs Discussion'
 Subject: RE: Iraq Re: Someone Must Tell Them
 
  On the other hand, the policy of sanctions, No-Fly-Zones,
  diplomatic isolation, etc. was given something on the order
  of 10+ years to work.
 
 And, to refresh my memory, which one of these policies was aimed at
 *removing* Saddam instead of containing him, and neutralising the threat
 posed by him?

Sanctions and diplomatic isolation are, typically, the strongest
non-military techniques the world has to push for regime change.  This is
what was attempted with Cuba, South Africa, and North Korea, for example. It
is true that, in cases where the US has a great deal of influence (say the
Philippines), regime change can be afforded by using influence (in that case
the US convinced members of the Philippines military to stand down when
Marcos wanted them to stop a regime change via elections).  But, I think it
is safe to say that outside countries had little leverage with the
leadership in Iraq.

The best chance for regime change came right after Gulf War I.  Hussein had
been humiliated; his army had totally collapsed against the US.  The US
supported uprisings within the country, which were stamped down quickly,
efficiently, and mercilessly.  What we didn't take into account was the fact
that the Republican Guard had been held out of the fighting, was intact, and
still strongly loyal.

The US and Britain then instituted no-fly zones, in an effort to reduce
Hussein's ability to attack the Shiites and the Kurds.  AFAIK, it was an
unprecedented limitation of the sovereign power within a country, outside of
a war of course. As a result of this, the Kurds were able to hold their own
in the North, and run that part of Iraq as a semi-autonomous region.  I know
that regime change was a goal of Bush Sr. and Clinton, but not considered an
attainable one, short of invasion.  Thus, they focused on the lesser goal of
containment, after the attempt at regime change failed. 

One might argue for a targeted assignation, but that's problematic in three
ways.  First, while we tend to focus on the leader himself, eliminating that
one person doesn't eliminate the dictatorship.  The best we could reasonable
hope for is that a less talented dictator takes over.  Our hopes for a quick
regime change in N. Korea were based on Kim Jr. not having the chops of Kim
Sr.  In all likelihood, he doesn't, but he's in power 12 years later. So, if
we magically got rid of Hussein, the next in line (say his brother or
Chemical Ali) would not represent a regime change.

Second, during both Gulf Wars, we did include command and control as
legitimate bombing targets.  Neither time did we get Hussein.  Even after we
control Iraq, it took quite a while to find him.

Third, these techniques have been declared illegal in the US, mostly for
reasons of self interest.  We did try them with Castro, to no avail.  Since
the Kennedy assignation, we saw that the use of this technique as a means of
could risk starting big wars that no-one wants.  In particular, no one
wanted the USSR to think it's the USA if the chairman of the communist
party were to be killed.  Given the problems we have with asymmetric war
now, I don't think Western governments want to put this on the table.  AQ
and Bin Laden are different, of course, because they are not a government.
 
And, the US and Britain actually bombed military targets when Hussein
stonewalled inspections.  The next step after bombing is a military campaign
involving boots on the ground. Indeed, I could argue that Iraq between the
Gulf Wars could be used as an example of trying everything short of
invasion, with no success.

Dan M.


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Re: Iraq Re: Someone Must Tell Them

2006-11-28 Thread Nick Arnett

On 11/27/06, jdiebremse [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:



If Iraqis are
 killing Iraqis at a stunning rate today, and they are, it is because
the
 Coalition enabled such a situation to arise. So, for quite a lot of
us,
 all the Iraqi deaths post 2003 are on the Coalition's head.



Okay... Ritu, did you really mean to say that the Coalition (not the US,
John) is totally responsible for all of the Iraqis killing Iraqis these
days?  Surely that is only partial responsibility?

Nick



--
Nick Arnett
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Messages: 408-904-7198
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RE: Iraq Re: Someone Must Tell Them

2006-11-28 Thread Ritu

Nick Arnett asked:

 Okay... Ritu, did you really mean to say that the Coalition 
 (not the US,
 John) is totally responsible for all of the Iraqis killing 
 Iraqis these days? 

Nope. The Coalition, as I mentioned in the mail John quoted, is
responsible for enabling the situation to arise. This kind of chaos was
by no means the inevitable result and better administration could have
warded off a lot of the problems which currently feed off each other.

 Surely that is only partial responsibility?

Yep.

Most of the responsibility for the individual acts of violence is shared
by those who pull the trigger or plant the IEDs, or decorate a car with
explosives, etc. etc. But the fact that such a large number of idiots
find it so easy to perpetrate such a large number of crimes daily is
very much the responsibility of those who overturned the previous order
without knowing how to replace it with a functioning state. The
preparation was woeful, the execution appalling, and it needn't have
been this way.

Ritu

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Re: Whites Only Scholarship Creates Outrage

2006-11-28 Thread Dave Land

On Nov 25, 2006, at 9:16 AM, Gary Nunn wrote:

For years, I've thought that the single biggest perpetrators of  
bigotry

were organizations like the NAACP and Rev. Jessie Jackson (with due
respect to his positive accomplishments).


You are in the company of a large number of racists in maintaining that
thought. Let me know how much peace it brings you.


Perhaps that's a leftover of the civil war and slavery era?


Perhaps it's a continuing recognition among members of minorities  
that they

have been and continue to be regarded as not-quite-equal.


To tell you the truth, we didn't see this coming, Mroszczyk said.


I find this very hard to believe considering this:


The application itself offers an explanation: We believe that racial
preferences in all their forms are perhaps the worst form of bigotry
confronting America today.

According to Mroszczyk, his group is offering the scholarship to  
point out

how ridiculous it is to have any sort of racially based scholarship.


... to point out ...

In other words, to bring attention to, to create a stir, to generate  
buzz,
to raise a ruckus. If he is surprised, it is only at the level of  
success
his plan attained. For him to claim that he didn't expect such a  
reaction

seems disingenuous.

I do not believe for a moment that his organization created their
scholarship simply to help underprivileged whites. They did it to create
exactly the reaction they got.

Dave



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Re: Whites Only Scholarship Creates Outrage

2006-11-28 Thread Dave Land

On Nov 25, 2006, at 9:16 AM, Gary Nunn wrote:

For years, I've thought that the single biggest perpetrators of  
bigotry

were organizations like the NAACP and Rev. Jessie Jackson (with due
respect to his positive accomplishments).


You are in the company of a large number of racists in maintaining that
thought. Let me know how much peace it brings you.


Perhaps that's a leftover of the civil war and slavery era?


Perhaps it's a continuing recognition among members of minorities  
that they

have been and continue to be regarded as not-quite-equal.


To tell you the truth, we didn't see this coming, Mroszczyk said.


I find this very hard to believe considering this:


The application itself offers an explanation: We believe that racial
preferences in all their forms are perhaps the worst form of bigotry
confronting America today.

According to Mroszczyk, his group is offering the scholarship to  
point out

how ridiculous it is to have any sort of racially based scholarship.


... to point out ...

In other words, to bring attention to, to create a stir, to generate  
buzz,
to raise a ruckus. If he is surprised, it is only at the level of  
success
his plan attained. For him to claim that he didn't expect such a  
reaction

seems disingenuous.

I do not believe for a moment that his organization created their
scholarship simply to help underprivileged whites. They did it to create
exactly the reaction they got.

Dave



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RE: Iraq Re: Someone Must Tell Them

2006-11-28 Thread Dan Minette


 -Original Message-
 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
 Behalf Of Ritu
 Sent: Tuesday, November 28, 2006 3:37 AM
 To: 'Killer Bs Discussion'
 Subject: RE: Iraq Re: Someone Must Tell Them
 
 JDG wrote:
 
  --- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], Ritu [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
   Similarly, I find the notion of bombing a people into democracy and
   gratitude stupid. And I really honestly do not believe that Bush's
   failure of imagination and my recognition of the same makes me
   responsible for Saddam's crimes, or the hypothetical continuation
   thereof.
 
 
  And I find the notion of winning gratitude while standing
  idly by as a megalamoniac dictator terrorizes the population,
  starts futile wars with his neighbors, and leaves his country
  impoversihed while completely enriching himself to be even stupider.
 
  See, I can mock your position as easily as you can mock mine
 
 *g*
 
 Would have worked better had that really been my position. :) But I
 don't think I've ever said anything that can be construed to mean that
 one can stand by idly while others are being tortured/killed and earn
 gratitude that way. So hold on to these lines and trot them out when I
 do make such a silly proposition. :)

But, JDG never said anything that can reasonably be construed to match your
characterization given above.  So, I think a reasonable reading of this was
that both of you can make quick, easy, cartoons of the more complex, nuanced
position of the other, but why bother.

My understanding of your position was that there were some things that had
some reasonable chance to result in regime change that should have been
tried before war.  I've been racking my brain, thinking of what has been
proposed, and cannot come up with anything that was proposed pre-war that
was either innovative or had a reasonable basis for plausibility.  

I'm kinda curious, what were these other possibilities?

Dan M.


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Re: interesting website

2006-11-28 Thread David Hobby

Gary Nunn wrote:


Not sure what I would classify that website as, but I ran across it this
morning, and it's one of my new favorites. It's a collection of links to
interesting news stories.
 
 
http://www.fark.com/


Gary--

Thanks, it is interesting.  I tried it for awhile, but am
giving up.  Too many of the links have cutesy titles which
don't clearly state what the story is about.  Result: I
spent too much time reading low-content articles.

---David

Now if you want funny, or dumb, that you can get...
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Afghanistan Re: Someone Must Tell Them

2006-11-28 Thread jdiebremse


--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], Charlie Bell [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
  Much of the world simply isn't able to provide soldiers as most
  1st world countries have been cutting back to basically a defence
  force, and there have been enough friendly fire incidents in
  joint task forces in the past to make military forces wary of
  combining troops.
 
  Many other countries provided soldiers, ships and aircraft,
  including a substantial contingent from the constantly maligned
  France:
 
  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
  2001_war_in_Afghanistan#Nature_of_the_coalition

 Yep. I note ISAF still has troops from 34 countries.




Unfortunately, there is every indication that the force is too small to
accomplish the job - there remains too few troops, and of the troops
that are there, too few of them are willing to work in the toughest/most
violent areas.

Don't get me wrong, I am very happy for the contributions that have been
provided - but unfortunately, given the nature of the task facing
Western Civilization, far more is required, and even the US is not fully
stepping up to the plate in that regard, let alone the rest of the
world




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Re: Someone Must Tell Them

2006-11-28 Thread jdiebremse


--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], Ritu [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:

 JDG asked:

   The survey, of 2,011 international travelers in 16 countries, was
   conducted by RT Strategies, a Virginia-based polling firm, for the
   Discover America Partnership, a group launched in September with
   multimillion-dollar backing from a range of companies that
  include the
   InterContinental Hotels Group, Anheuser Busch and Walt Disney
Parks
  and
   Resorts.
  
   What is the reputation of RT Strategies? Given the client list,
I'd
   assume that the company has a good reputation in the market
  and knows
   what it is doing.
 
  OK, and what countries exactly rated higher than the United
  States on this List?

 The closes rivals in terms of being unfriendly to travelers were the
Mid
 East and the Indian Subcontinent, in that order.


Well, neither The Middle East nor the Indian Subcontinent is a
country.Does The Middle East refer to Israel?  Jordan? and Turkey?
or how 'bouts Syria? Iraq? or Iran?

JDG


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Re: Iraq

2006-11-28 Thread jdiebremse


--- In [EMAIL PROTECTED], Doug [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote:
 The single most effective thing we can do to reduce the threat of
terrorism is to leave
 Iraq and other Middle Eastern nations. We can't change our energy
requirements overnight,
 but the energy policy of the Bush administration has led us in exactly
the opposite direction
 that we need to go. We either start finding alternatives and promote
conservation now
 or we face a tremendous shock some time in the future when prices
skyrocket.


Its my understanding that Bush has actually rather aggressively
supported research into alternative energy.


  What's yours stay the course?

  Ah, the classic partisan buzz phrase.

 Pardon me? Wasn't that _the_ administration policy up until about a
month and a half ago?

Month and a half ago being the operative words. You accused me of
proposing an already-abandoned policy...   and I'm sure you recognize
the partisan overtones to that.


  Anyhow, I'd discuss my policy,
  but I haven't been elected President of the United States, so why
should
  I?

 Quite the cop out considering you're the one who originally asked the
question, but I can
 understand your reluctance to reply here where anything you propose is
likely subject to
 attack from several directions.

 Of course that's the case just about anywhere you go these days, isn't
it.


It was also a friendly dig at a fellow list-member.

I won't pretend that I have the answers to Iraq - if I did, I suppose
that I probably wouldn't be here.

In general, though, I see two broad policy options in regards to Iraq.
On one hand, there is a set proposals of the variety that if we were to
just leave Iraq, the ensuing vacuum would just simply force the Iraqis
to sort out their problems, because America (et al.)  wouldn't be around
to bail them out any more.On the other hand, there is a set of
proposals of the variety that Coalition forces can play a positive role
in controlling sectarian violence.

In general, while I find the first set of proposals tempting, I find
them to also be ultimately unconvincing.I just don't think that
there is much support for the notion that a security vacuum would force
Iraqis to sort things out.   I also look at what happened in vacuum
situations in places like Somalia, Congo, etc. and think that
disintegration could be a very real possibility.There is also the
specter of the substantial evidence that Osama bin Laden was greatly
emboldened by our loss of will and withdrawal from Somalia, and that
similarly withdrawing in disagrace from a disintegrating Iraq would have
an even greater effect.

I also think that there is substantial evidence that Coalition forces
can play a positive role.  There have been many reports that the
deployment of Coalition forces to an area reduces sectarian violence in
that area.   The overwhelming problem seems to be that nearly four years
later, we're still trying to do this thing on the cheap, and we just
don't have enough troops.

So, what sort of policy options does that lend us to?

In the short term, there may perhaps be some beneficial changes in
tactics that could be effected - such as perhaps greater integration of
Coalition and Iraq forces.

In the medium term, I think that we should be increasing the pay of our
soldiers substantially in order to boost recruitment, certainly I think
that soldiers' pay should be growing at a faster rate than pay for other
federal employees not in danger zones. I also would consider looking
at perhaps seeing what forces could perhaps be raised by substantially
underwriting some kind of UN, African Union, or League of Arab States
peacekeeping force.Lastly, I would also be reminding, at every
opportunity, that while not all of our Allies may have wanted to get
into Iraq, they do all stand to lose almost as much as we do if the
Iraqi enterprise were to fail

I can't say that these are answers to our problems, but I think that
they are starts


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Re: Iraq Re: Someone Must Tell Them

2006-11-28 Thread Doug
Ritu wrote:

 I'll disagree with you here. I do not think that AQ wants the US to
 withdraw. Not right now at any rate. A couple of captured AQ documents
 clearly indicate that AQ is hoping that the US stays in Iraq for a long
 time to come. The American presence in Iraq is accomplishing what OBL
 had hoped the Afghanistan war would do - act as a motivator and
 radicalise the Muslim youth, and provide a target for the new recruits
 to practice on. Some analysts and intelligence institutions have already
 pointed toward a trend wherein jihadis get their 'training' in Iraq and
 then move to Afghanistan.

 Also, it is a drain on your economy and OBL is on record about wanting
 that. He has said as much in a letter about Iraq. Another cache of
 letters, caught when Zwahiri was killed, showed that AQ is also worried
 that it doesn't have enough representation in Iraq [estimates about AQ
 involvement put them at about 5-10% of the Iraqi insurgents/whatever the
 current term might be]. So if the US withdraws, AQ is not sure that they
 have enough of a toe-hold to stay on in Iraq.

 None of this means, of course, that they wouldn't crow to high heaven
 and proclaim victory the minute a departure is announced.

I'll agree with the above with the caveat that anyone that knows the U.S. at 
all knows that the public has little patience for failure.  The machinations of 
the Bush administration which, while it is abysmal at nation building, is 
rather proficient at deception and manipulation of the public (a la Rove), have 
prolonged the acceptance of the conflict somewhat.  Now that public opinion has 
turned sharply against the war, it's only a matter of time before we leave.

There is one other reason AQ doesn't want us to leave; they're Sunnis and 
aren't particularly interested in another Shi'a state in the region.

-- 
Doug
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RE: Iraq Re: Someone Must Tell Them

2006-11-28 Thread Ronn!Blankenship

At 08:39 AM Tuesday 11/28/2006, Dan Minette wrote:



 -Original Message-
 From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
 Behalf Of Ritu
 Sent: Tuesday, November 28, 2006 3:37 AM
 To: 'Killer Bs Discussion'
 Subject: RE: Iraq Re: Someone Must Tell Them

  On the other hand, the policy of sanctions, No-Fly-Zones,
  diplomatic isolation, etc. was given something on the order
  of 10+ years to work.

 And, to refresh my memory, which one of these policies was aimed at
 *removing* Saddam instead of containing him, and neutralising the threat
 posed by him?

Sanctions and diplomatic isolation are, typically, the strongest
non-military techniques the world has to push for regime change.  This is
what was attempted with Cuba, South Africa, and North Korea, for example. It
is true that, in cases where the US has a great deal of influence (say the
Philippines), regime change can be afforded by using influence (in that case
the US convinced members of the Philippines military to stand down when
Marcos wanted them to stop a regime change via elections).  But, I think it
is safe to say that outside countries had little leverage with the
leadership in Iraq.

The best chance for regime change came right after Gulf War I.  Hussein had
been humiliated; his army had totally collapsed against the US.  The US
supported uprisings within the country, which were stamped down quickly,
efficiently, and mercilessly.  What we didn't take into account was the fact
that the Republican Guard had been held out of the fighting, was intact, and
still strongly loyal.

The US and Britain then instituted no-fly zones, in an effort to reduce
Hussein's ability to attack the Shiites and the Kurds.  AFAIK, it was an
unprecedented limitation of the sovereign power within a country, outside of
a war of course. As a result of this, the Kurds were able to hold their own
in the North, and run that part of Iraq as a semi-autonomous region.  I know
that regime change was a goal of Bush Sr. and Clinton, but not considered an
attainable one, short of invasion.  Thus, they focused on the lesser goal of
containment, after the attempt at regime change failed.

One might argue for a targeted assignation,




We send him a[nother] mistress?




 but that's problematic in three
ways.  First, while we tend to focus on the leader himself, eliminating that
one person doesn't eliminate the dictatorship.  The best we could reasonable
hope for is that a less talented dictator takes over.  Our hopes for a quick
regime change in N. Korea were based on Kim Jr. not having the chops of Kim
Sr.  In all likelihood, he doesn't, but he's in power 12 years later. So, if
we magically got rid of Hussein, the next in line (say his brother or
Chemical Ali) would not represent a regime change.

Second, during both Gulf Wars, we did include command and control as
legitimate bombing targets.  Neither time did we get Hussein.  Even after we
control Iraq, it took quite a while to find him.

Third, these techniques have been declared illegal in the US, mostly for
reasons of self interest.  We did try them with Castro, to no avail.  Since
the Kennedy assignation,




Marilyn?  Or another one?




 we saw that the use of this technique as a means of
could risk starting big wars that no-one wants.  In particular, no one
wanted the USSR to think it's the USA if the chairman of the communist
party were to be killed.  Given the problems we have with asymmetric war
now, I don't think Western governments want to put this on the table.  AQ
and Bin Laden are different, of course, because they are not a government.

And, the US and Britain actually bombed military targets when Hussein
stonewalled inspections.  The next step after bombing is a military campaign
involving boots on the ground. Indeed, I could argue that Iraq between the
Gulf Wars could be used as an example of trying everything short of
invasion, with no success.

Dan M.



Aren't Spell Checkers Fun Maru


-- Ronn!  :)



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RE: Iraq Re: Someone Must Tell Them

2006-11-28 Thread Ronn!Blankenship

At 10:24 AM Tuesday 11/28/2006, Ritu wrote:


Nick Arnett asked:

 Okay... Ritu, did you really mean to say that the Coalition
 (not the US,
 John) is totally responsible for all of the Iraqis killing
 Iraqis these days?

Nope. The Coalition, as I mentioned in the mail John quoted, is
responsible for enabling the situation to arise. This kind of chaos was
by no means the inevitable result and better administration could have
warded off a lot of the problems which currently feed off each other.

 Surely that is only partial responsibility?

Yep.

Most of the responsibility for the individual acts of violence is shared
by those who pull the trigger or plant the IEDs,




Sorry to have nothing to contribute tonight but nitpicks, but someone 
on TV yesterday mumbled that term so badly that at first it sounded 
like IUDs . . .



Both Associated With Bangs Maru


-- Ronn!  :)



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Re: Afghanistan Re: Someone Must Tell Them

2006-11-28 Thread Charlie Bell


On 29/11/2006, at 3:54 PM, jdiebremse wrote:




Unfortunately, there is every indication that the force is too  
small to

accomplish the job - there remains too few troops, and of the troops
that are there, too few of them are willing to work in the toughest/ 
most

violent areas.


Yes, precisely. Upsetting. It needed to be done properly, and it  
wasn't because of the Iraq distraction.


Don't get me wrong, I am very happy for the contributions that have  
been

provided - but unfortunately, given the nature of the task facing
Western Civilization, far more is required, and even the US is not  
fully

stepping up to the plate in that regard, let alone the rest of the
world


I'm not even sure what the task facing Western Civilization means.  
You're talking another language.


Charlie
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Risk perception and prioritisation synchronicity

2006-11-28 Thread Charlie Bell
i touched on the issue of proportional response - Time seems to be  
leading with that theme this issue.


http://www.cnn.com/2006/US/11/26/cover.story.tm/index.html

Charlie
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