Re: What is wealth?
>> Demographers have Russias population reducing to under 70 million by 2050. > Wow, that's about 4 per sq. km. And with China around 140 per sq. km., > maybe dropping a bit to 125 per sq. km by then, just to it's south, that's a > problem waiting to happenespecially with the male/female disparity in > China (1.13 males/females under 15). It might be cowboys and Indians time > again, with a strong China pushing to take over land (or at least push for > very favorable trade terms) from Russia. I've long thought war over Siberia is the most likely next use of belligerent nukes. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Incoming!
On Dec 17, 2008, at 9:04 PM, Ronn! Blankenship wrote: > Possibly TMI Maru Possibly? My imagination is suffering from hysterical blindness... -- WO ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Irregulars questions on DTV conversion
On Dec 17, 2008, at 10:02 PM, Ronn! Blankenship wrote: > (1) Will TV stations still broadcast audio on the same frequency, or > will all those "TV-band radios" that some folks use especially to > pick up the local news, weather, etc., while out and about or during > a power failure become doorstops after February? I'm pretty sure the audio on DTV is in-band digital embedded in the bitstream. (ATSC A/S2A) Gets the benefit of compression (however lossy) as well as the ability to encode 5.1 and other formats. Sad to say, I think the old out of band FM audio is going away with the analog video signals. (As inferior a standard as NTSC-M is to the HD formats, I have to say I'll miss it. It was fun pulling analog signals off of broadcast TV stations and dissecting them on the oscilloscope years ago ..) "This is an amazing honor. I want you to know that I spend so much time in the world that is spinning all the time, that to be in the no- spin zone actually gives me vertigo." -- Stephen Colbert during an interview on FOX News, The O'Reilly Factor ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Incoming!
At 09:02 PM Wednesday 12/17/2008, Warren Ockrassa wrote: >On Dec 17, 2008, at 3:05 PM, Ronn! Blankenship wrote: > > > Shoe-fly pie. > >Your fly is open. No it's not. I'm not even wearing pants. Possibly TMI Maru . . . ronn! :) ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Irregulars questions on DTV conversion
Thought someone here might have the answers, or know where to find them: (1) Will TV stations still broadcast audio on the same frequency, or will all those "TV-band radios" that some folks use especially to pick up the local news, weather, etc., while out and about or during a power failure become doorstops after February? (2) Will a computer with a TV tuner card pick up the digital signal (without further modification), or would it either require a converter box in the line or have to be connected to cable? And does anyone have any recommendations for such cards, particularly (if it makes a difference) ones which will turn an existing PC into a DTV-ready TV set? . . . ronn! :) ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: Incoming!
On Dec 17, 2008, at 3:05 PM, Ronn! Blankenship wrote: > Shoe-fly pie. Your fly is open. -- Warren Ockrassa Blog | http://indigestible.nightwares.com/ Books | http://books.nightwares.com/ Web | http://www.nightwares.com/ ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
RE: Russia (Was What is wealth?)
Original Message: - From: Wayne Eddy we...@bigpond.net.au Date: Thu, 18 Dec 2008 06:59:18 +1000 To: brin-l@mccmedia.com Subject: Russia (Was What is wealth?) - Original Message - From: "Dan M" To: "'Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion'" Sent: Thursday, December 18, 2008 1:34 AM Subject: RE: What is wealth? >I didn't see a lot of >drunks wandering the streets, but there were a few indications that >alcoholism could be a bit of a problem. Well, on average they drink a lot. Averaging over the whole population, we have from http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/health/article1647475.ece >A report by Gennadi Onishenko, head of the consumer protection agency, found that >Russians drink 15 litres (26 pints) of pure alcohol per year >I was last in Russia was in 2004 and the ecconomy seemed to have picked up a >lot since when I was first there in 2000, whcih is why I question your >assertion that Russia was on the slide. The majority of Russians I've met >are very well educated and I definitely got the impression that Russia was >recovering nicely from the admittedly rather large hiccup caused by the fall >of the Soviet Union. >Another few years and oil prices will be higher than ever surely? The last time this happened, it took 20 years until the next oil boom. Again, look at the countries where the ecconomy is all oil. Those with decent sized populations (Venezuala, Iraq, Iran, Nigeria) have not seen the immense foreign currency generated by this wealth trickle down to the average person. The recovery was caused by two things: Putin controlling the mob so businessmen knew who to bribe, and the rise in fuel costs. But, the last 4 years, as he consolidated his power, he also concentrated the wealthI don't think anyone would argue that Russia is not a more autocratic country than it was even 4 years ago. These types of countries rarely have well off citizens. >I never saw any indications of massive child neglect - quite the opposite. OK, then the quesiton becomes why do NGOs report it as massive, and even the government report it as quite large. >Lets hope the US doesn't attack any else for a while then. Surely with >George Bush out it becomes a bit less likely? :-) It depends on the security needs of the US. Obama was clear that he would raise the troop levels in Afganistan. Gates seems to have his head on straight, arguing for soft forces to follow troops in because the US otherwise lost the ground it won as soon as the troops left. I, among many others, argued against going into Iraq, because I thought we would bumble it.although even I didn't guess the magnitude of the incompetence of those involved. But, with Gates and Petreus, we have had very competent leadership, and things are far better now than they were in '06, or '02 in Iraq. Whether they will stay that way after we leave is a good question the answer to which no-one knows, but right now there are far fewer violent deaths than there were 7 years ago. >I wonder if Afganistan will have that effect on anyone else? Very unlikely. If you look at 'Nam for the US and Afganistan for the USSR, both were quagmires, but the US managed to grow its GDP 30% in the '70s and the USSR GDP fell like a rock in the '80s. Right now, the US is spending a fraction of the GDP it spent on arms in the '60s, our biggest growth years. >I would have thought that a low birth rate is very very good evidence of >being part of the first world. It does have that in common with the first world. But, the life expectancy of both men and women in every age catagory is less than it was 40 years ago. http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/3439671.html Now, I know the Hoover institute is quite conservative, but from what I've heard from knowledgeable sources in the field, the basic demographics are not disputed >Things can turn around quickly - look at China - Which took 25 years to turn around, but go ahead. >perhaps global warming is >just what Russia needs to become a major world power again? With no people? It's not just that the birth rate is low, it's that the death rate is higher than 40 years ago. Germany has a lower birth rate, and it's birth and death rate are close to even. Russia's death rate is about 50% higher than it's birth rate. For a number of reasons, the average, say, 40 year old man has a high hill to climb before he can achieve his father's life expectancy. Something is wrong there. The life expectency for a Russian male is 3 years less than for a male from Bangladesh. Something is terribly wrong there. Dan M. mail2web.com – Enhanced email for the mobile individual based on Microsoft® Exchange - http://link.mail2web.com/Personal/EnhancedEmail ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Incoming!
Q. What dessert is all the rage in Iraq these days? . : . : . : . : . : . : . : . : . : . : . : . : . : . : . : . : . : . : . : . : A. Shoe-fly pie. . . . ronn! :P Professional Smart-Aleck. Do Not Attempt. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Russia (Was What is wealth?)
- Original Message - From: "Dan M" To: "'Killer Bs (David Brin et al) Discussion'" Sent: Thursday, December 18, 2008 1:34 AM Subject: RE: What is wealth? > It's based on a number of things, but I think the single item that stood > out > for me was the male life expectancy: 59.2 years. 25 years ago, it was > over > 70 years (at least officially). This drop is absolutely amazing. Women > fare much better, average life expectancy is 73.1 years or so, but this > high > death rate among men indicates a tremendous, debilitating underlying > problem. Alcoholism gets most of the blame here, but that level of > alcoholism is truly staggering. I have visited Russia a few times & Ukraine once. I didn't see a lot of drunks wandering the streets, but there were a few indications that alcoholism could be a bit of a problem. 1. Beer is not really considered to be alcohol, in Ukraine in particular it was dirt cheap & available in nearly every shop. 2. In Russia, in Volgograd in 2000 at least, it was possibile to go to a bar with an empty soft drink bottle and get it filled with beer. Actuallly, I was impressed with this as being very environmentally friendly. :-) 3. I noticed quite a few crosses with flowers on straight stretches of road. 4. It is considered bad manners to mix vodka or table your shot glass unless it's empty. 5. The nicest beer I ever had the pleasure of drinking was in Russia. It was a Belgian brew and I wish I remembered the brand name. > Second, Russia's economy had been in a free-fall from about 1980 to 2000. > Living standards had dropped tremendously. Recently, due to oil and gas > production, the per GDP has risen noticeably, but the increasing control > of > Putin over everything reminds me of Venezuela and Iran. It's as Thomas > Friedman stated, central controlled one trick pony economies do not > develop > well (e.g. Iran, Iraq, Nigeria), while diversified ones (e.g. Taiwan, > South > Korea) do. With the drop in oil prices, Russia's hurting now. While the > US, European, and Asian stock markets have dropped tremendously, it's > nothing compared to the 75% drop in Russia seen this year. I was last in Russia was in 2004 and the ecconomy seemed to have picked up a lot since when I was first there in 2000, whcih is why I question your assertion that Russia was on the slide. The majority of Russians I've met are very well educated and I definitely got the impression that Russia was recovering nicely from the admittedly rather large hiccup caused by the fall of the Soviet Union. Another few years and oil prices will be higher than ever surely? > Third, Russia isn't/can't take care of the relatively few children it does > have. According to the Wikipedia article on street children, Russia has > 2-4 > million (the Russian official number is 700k, but they also state that > they > do not have an AIDs problem...and 700k isn't peanuts). For a country of > 140 > million, with about 20 million children, this translates into 10-20% of > all > children. I never saw any indications of massive child neglect - quite the opposite. > Fourth, Russia built its status on military might and international > control/influence. The countries behind the Iron Curtain were set up to > trade in a way highly favorable to Russia, for example. It was the enemy > of > the US, and was able to contest the US from Viet Nam to Cuba. > > Now, its military might is minimal. Its soldiers are experienced, which > is > worth something, but its equipment is decaying. On paper, it has a > tremendous nuclear arsenal, but in reality the launch success rate would > be > very low. Indeed, in Security Studies, a detailed analysis has concluded > that there is a high probability that the US now has a first strike > capacity > against the Russia (note, the article went on to discuss possible > destabilizing results from this, so it wasn't considered a plus for the US > in the article). Lets hope the US doesn't attack any else for a while then. Surely with George Bush out it becomes a bit less likely? :-) > The Russians easily handled the small country of Georgia. But, based on > how > it handled that, the Ukraine may give it a decent battle. Star Wars and > the > Afghanistan war were the beginning of the long slide in military power. I wonder if Afganistan will have that effect on anyone else? > Finally, its death rate is about 50% higher than its birth rate. While > that > is not inherently indicative of dropping out of the first world, the fact > remains that it's a dying country, and a dying country that does not take > care of its children to boot. If we do find alternatives to expensive > (>$90/barrel) oil, Russia will have no basis for its economy. At that > point, one real geopolitical risk is a strong China will see an empty > Russia > to its north, with great potential for farming as global warming opens up > farming areas. I would have thought that a low b
RE: What is wealth?
> Demographers have Russias population reducing to under 70 million by 2050. Wow, that's about 4 per sq. km. And with China around 140 per sq. km., maybe dropping a bit to 125 per sq. km by then, just to it's south, that's a problem waiting to happenespecially with the male/female disparity in China (1.13 males/females under 15). It might be cowboys and Indians time again, with a strong China pushing to take over land (or at least push for very favorable trade terms) from Russia. Dan M. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: What is wealth?
> It's based on a number of things, but I think the single item that stood out > for me was the male life expectancy: 59.2 years. 25 years ago, it was over > 70 years (at least officially). This drop is absolutely amazing. Demographers have Russias population reducing to under 70 million by 2050. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Weekly Chat Reminder
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RE: What is wealth?
> > Hi Dan, I am interested to hear what your basis is for saying that > Russia is falling out of the developed world. It's based on a number of things, but I think the single item that stood out for me was the male life expectancy: 59.2 years. 25 years ago, it was over 70 years (at least officially). This drop is absolutely amazing. Women fare much better, average life expectancy is 73.1 years or so, but this high death rate among men indicates a tremendous, debilitating underlying problem. Alcoholism gets most of the blame here, but that level of alcoholism is truly staggering. Second, Russia's economy had been in a free-fall from about 1980 to 2000. Living standards had dropped tremendously. Recently, due to oil and gas production, the per GDP has risen noticeably, but the increasing control of Putin over everything reminds me of Venezuela and Iran. It's as Thomas Friedman stated, central controlled one trick pony economies do not develop well (e.g. Iran, Iraq, Nigeria), while diversified ones (e.g. Taiwan, South Korea) do. With the drop in oil prices, Russia's hurting now. While the US, European, and Asian stock markets have dropped tremendously, it's nothing compared to the 75% drop in Russia seen this year. Third, Russia isn't/can't take care of the relatively few children it does have. According to the Wikipedia article on street children, Russia has 2-4 million (the Russian official number is 700k, but they also state that they do not have an AIDs problem...and 700k isn't peanuts). For a country of 140 million, with about 20 million children, this translates into 10-20% of all children. Fourth, Russia built its status on military might and international control/influence. The countries behind the Iron Curtain were set up to trade in a way highly favorable to Russia, for example. It was the enemy of the US, and was able to contest the US from Viet Nam to Cuba. Now, its military might is minimal. Its soldiers are experienced, which is worth something, but its equipment is decaying. On paper, it has a tremendous nuclear arsenal, but in reality the launch success rate would be very low. Indeed, in Security Studies, a detailed analysis has concluded that there is a high probability that the US now has a first strike capacity against the Russia (note, the article went on to discuss possible destabilizing results from this, so it wasn't considered a plus for the US in the article). The Russians easily handled the small country of Georgia. But, based on how it handled that, the Ukraine may give it a decent battle. Star Wars and the Afghanistan war were the beginning of the long slide in military power. Finally, its death rate is about 50% higher than its birth rate. While that is not inherently indicative of dropping out of the first world, the fact remains that it's a dying country, and a dying country that does not take care of its children to boot. If we do find alternatives to expensive (>$90/barrel) oil, Russia will have no basis for its economy. At that point, one real geopolitical risk is a strong China will see an empty Russia to its north, with great potential for farming as global warming opens up farming areas. Dan M. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
