Re: Watch the news out of Switzerland -
Yep, Pat. My chief fear is that people won't get riled up enough. From: Pat Mathews To: Brin List Sent: Monday, February 23, 2009 7:26:42 AM Subject: Watch the news out of Switzerland - UBS is starting to look very, very bad. I remember reading Earth and taking the Helvetian War for granted as the major early-21st Century Crisis without bothering to wonder what triggered the public mood of anger at their secrecy and covering up for dictators etc. Now, several months into the current recession, it becomes painfully clear - People will tolerate a lot of this sort of thing while they're making money or have hopes of making money. It's when the economy crashes and takes Main Street down with it that they get out the tar and feathers - and later the nukes. I've been watching it unfold with my own eyes. So - back to Earth - a worldwide economic crash in which the Swiss Bankers appeared to be the primary culprits, and the witch hunt is on until Helvetia glows in the dark. Yes. This makes SUCH good sense. Different timeline, of course, since it's the American financiers who are now in danger of being tarred and feathered and ridden out of town on a rail. But - google for UBS in trouble. http://idiotgrrl.livejournal.com/ ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On the Housing Market
On Mon, Feb 23, 2009 at 6:50 AM, dsummersmi...@comcast.net < dsummersmi...@comcast.net> wrote: > > > The bubble was that clear, particularly where housing prices skyrocketed up > on the coasts, in NV, etc. There is no way that a doubling in price is > anything but a bubble. What's your definition of a bubble? Artificially inflated prices (not related to supply and demand)? A large price increase that is sure to correct? It seems like a mushy term. I'm asking not to argue, but to get at what this really means. There is no doubt, is there, that sometimes prices (of some things, at least) shoot up for legitimate reasons. When we get a sharp rise followed by a sharp correction, we can point backwards and say "Bubble!" But how do we know that a doubling in price is a bubble unless it is followed by a big correction? Wikipedia: An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, or a speculative mania) is "trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance from intrinsic values". Has the real estate volume been high in recent years? Or may that's not the right question - the volume of mortgages certainly has been high, but the price of mortgages hasn't shot up. "Intrinsic values" is a problematic term, since economic value is generally defined in terms of how much of one thing we're willing to give up for another. Apparently people have been willing to give up a lot of money (or do I mean solvency?) for real estate lately. Banks have been, at least. In the stock market, we talk about fundamentals and technical analysis. It seems like fundamentals have been forgotten in the real estate market... such as the relationship between rents and valuations, which somebody here, as I recall, pointed out was a pretty good indicator that we were in a bubble. Nick ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Watch the news out of Switzerland -
UBS is starting to look very, very bad. I remember reading Earth and taking the Helvetian War for granted as the major early-21st Century Crisis without bothering to wonder what triggered the public mood of anger at their secrecy and covering up for dictators etc. Now, several months into the current recession, it becomes painfully clear - People will tolerate a lot of this sort of thing while they're making money or have hopes of making money. It's when the economy crashes and takes Main Street down with it that they get out the tar and feathers - and later the nukes. I've been watching it unfold with my own eyes. So - back to Earth - a worldwide economic crash in which the Swiss Bankers appeared to be the primary culprits, and the witch hunt is on until Helvetia glows in the dark. Yes. This makes SUCH good sense. Different timeline, of course, since it's the American financiers who are now in danger of being tarred and feathered and ridden out of town on a rail. But - google for UBS in trouble. http://idiotgrrl.livejournal.com/ ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: On the Housing Market
Original Message: - From: David Hobby hob...@newpaltz.edu Date: Mon, 23 Feb 2009 00:08:53 -0500 To: brin-l@mccmedia.com Subject: Re: On the Housing Market Rceeberger wrote: > http://www.businessinsider.com/the-housing-chart-thats-worth-1000-words-2009 -2 > > > Housing prices may still have a ways to fall. Rob-- >Wow. That's certainly what the chart shows. >Is it really that clear? If it were, you'd >think that enough investors would have bet >against the housing bubble that it never >would have happened. The bubble was that clear, particularly where housing prices skyrocketed up on the coasts, in NV, etc. There is no way that a doubling in price is anything but a bubble. But, the house I sold, I had to put in about $10k of upgrades and sold at about 10k over what I bought (in inflation ajdusted dollars), so the bubble isn't everywhere. But, we're now starting to drop in value as the market dries up. Houses are now much bigger than they were in the '50s, GDP per capita is much higher, etc. So, a rise in inflation adjusted home prices is not inherently inappropriate: one would not expect to pay the same price for a 3000 sq. ft. house as for a 1500 sq. ft. house, especially if the 3000 sq. ft. house is much nicer. The rent vs. own question is still important. Right now, we're living in a 1350 sq. ft. apartment that costs more than our mortgage payments were on our 3000 sq. ft. house. Working it all out, if it wasn't for the value of getting our appreciation while we did and the relative ease of leaving an apartment when Teri got called, it would have been cheaper to stay in the big house, maintaince costs and all. Dan M. So, home prices could now be 10% overvalued. mail2web - Check your email from the web at http://link.mail2web.com/mail2web ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
