RE: Iran [News]
>From a website run by Anonymous (the group): http://iran.whyweprotest.net/news-current-events/1966-green-brief-6-niteowl.html The Green Brief #6 - NiteOwl Please retweet this link. I'm Josh Shahryar AKA NiteOwl - iran_translator on twitter - and I've been immersed in tweets from Iran for the past several hours. I have tried to be extremely careful in choosing my tweet sources and have tried maximally to avoid listening to media banter. What I have compiled below is what I can confirm through my tweets to have happened in the past day and in the past week in Iran. Remember, this is all from tweets. There is NOTHING included here that is not from a reliable tweet. No news media outlets have been used in the compilation of this short brief as I would like to call it. These are the important happenings that I can positively confirm from Monday, June 22 in Iran. (If I cannot positively confirm, I have indicated that I can't.) 1. Protests were held throughout Tehran today. The main protest was held at 7 Tir Square where 3-5 thousand people gathered to remember and mourn Neda - the protester killed on Saturday. However, soon hundreds of IRG, police, Basij and plainclothesmen gathered and violently tried to disperse the protesters. It took hours to disperse all the protesters. The security forces used batons and fired tear gas shells as well as firing weapons in the air. Dozens of people were injured, including many women. Helicopters were flying over Tehran for the second day. There were also reports of helicopters firing tear gas shells at people - they have not been fully confirmed. 2. There was also a gathering of about 1,000 people in Valiasr Avenue, meeting security forces who sparked a confrontation. It was not as violent as the one on 7 Tir, but many people were injured there as well. There was a huge rally held by Ahmadinejad's supporters at Valiasr for his victory speech. The participants were mostly people from the provinces, children and older Iranians. There were also a large number of government employees. 3. News of protests around the country was not relayed through tweets much today; however, sources confirmed that at least some rallies and protests were held in Tabriz where protesters met with violent attacks by the security forces. Later in the night as people chanted Allah o Akbar from the rooftops, there were reports of clashes in northern and western Tehran between protesters and security forces. Chants of Allah o Akbar also echoed across the country. Candles were lit throughout the country in memory of protesters that have been killed so far. The number of confirmed deaths stands close to 50 now and there have been more than a thousand injured. 4. Sources claim that the government is considering expelling some diplomatic missions because they've helped protesters or are accused of masterminding the unrest. The government earlier in the day alleged that the US had paid 400 million dollars to people in order to organize unrest in Iran. They also blamed the UK and Germany - saying the latter was coaxed into taking action by Israel - how Israel manages to coax other countries was beyond our sources. The Guardian Council has now announced that there were 3 million extra votes cast. Other information is unreliable at this point or various sources exist. 5. The government is actively trying to suppress news from getting out. BBC and Al-Arabiya's correspondents were told to get out in 24 hours, twitter sites are being hacked, people are being tricked into getting out late at night by others chanting in the streets who are actually Basijis and the spread of spam and propaganda on twitter. The government has also established dozens of sites with pictures of protesters, asking people to identify them. At least two of these sites that were based abroad have been taken down by hackers sympathetic to Iranians today. 6. There are sporadic reports coming in from Qom at this point. Sources claim that Rafsanjani who was in Qom has had meetings with clerics inside Qom. It has been also reported - but not confirmed - for the past three days that Ayatollah Montazeri has declared a three days' mourning period. It likely is a hoax because it has not been confirmed by anyone. What can be confirmed is that the Council of Combatant Clerics - which includes in its members Rafsanjani and Nateq Noori - have backed the protesters. 7. Hamzeh Ghalebi, head of Mousavi's youth headquarters and Reza Homaye, another reformist and backer of Mousavi, have been arrested. There have been arrests of numerous other reformists and backers of Mousavi, Karoubi, Noori and Rafsanjani. The total number of people that have been arrested is still anyone's guess. Reports indicate somewhere between five and ten thousand. 8. Tuesday has been declared a national strike by Mousavi and his ba
RE: Iran
On 6/22/2009 7:36:48 PM, Dan M (dsummersmi...@comcast.net) wrote: > > > > Things do not look overly promising for the protesters, but if they > manage > > to make it through tomorrow without their heads being cracked Iranian > > public sentiment may swing decisively in their direction. It really > > depends on how hard the Supreme Ayatollah swings back at them. > > > > We should see by morning. > > Well, it's the next day, and I don't see any resolution. I think that > the > splits in the leadership are promising, though small. But.the best > organized force is the Revolutionary Guard, and they appear to be > fanatical. > I'd guess, if push came to shove, they wouldn't mind killing > thousands to > keep orderand I don't see anyone standing up to them in a fight. > I wouldn't be so quick to judge. Reports from inside Iran say the Guard is split and mostly inactive. The Army is similarly. The police have been ineffective because they won't shoot their own countrymen. That is why most of the violence has been committed by Basiji and Arab imports (such as Hezbollah and some Afghan Taliban with possibly some Russians thrown in according to rumor) Many of the people committing violence are non-Farsi speakers and that is a solid indictment of the gravity of the situation. The Council of Experts is split and the Ayatollahs seem to be waiting for Khamenei to commit an irrevocable fuckup before they move. Many Mullahs are going to the protests themselves and making pronouncements on behalf of the protestors. A Revolutionary Guard General was arrested for refusing to fire on protestors. Rafsanjani's daughter was arrested for attending a protest. The longer this continues the better it gets for the protestors I think. The general trend seems to be favoring them. Amedinajad is pretty much irrelevant ATM. It really hinges on Khamenei and what he does, which I expect will be screwup because he really isn't much more than a hack/wonk in the overall picture and I don't think he is skilled enough to wiggle out of the crack he has gotten himself into. A national strike is being called (starting today). How that goes will determine the course and success of this revolt. xponent #IranElection Maru rob ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: Iran
>Whatever the final outcome Ahmadinejad's position has to have been severely weakened. >As he's a nut case, this is a very good thing. OK, I'll agree that his position with some factions within the ruling elite has been lowered. The real question, of course, it what is the position of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He backed Ahmadinejad strongly, and issued a clear threat of violence against any protesters. The Revolutionary Guard and the associated paramilitary (brown shirts) appear eager for violence. So, the risk of Ahmadinejad doing something against Iran's interests is probably lower, but I think he was always on a leash. My prediction is that, after a few more demonstrations of a few hundred people get knocked down with scores dead, the struggle will go underground. Thirty years from now, there will significant changes, but before then I think that Iran will have a score or so of nuclear weapons, without even the command and control that Pakistan has over its nukes. Pakistan is looking a bit better now than 2 months ago, but it is still very dangerous. One thing that I read that is very disturbing to me is that it is near impossible to predict the future of Iran, even for those who devoted their life to studying Iran, even for those who are ruling Iran. Once they have the capacity to eliminate Israel in half and hour (probably 5 years from now), I fear that after that, an Ayatollah who wishes to hasten the return of the Mahdi will be come Supreme Ayatollahor that a faction of the National Guard that does will gain command and control of, say, 3 nuclear missilescause that's all it would take to virtually eliminate Israel. Dan M. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Iran
Dan wrote: > > > > Things do not look overly promising for the protesters, but if they > manage > > to make it through tomorrow without their heads being cracked Iranian > > public sentiment may swing decisively in their direction. It really > > depends on how hard the Supreme Ayatollah swings back at them. > > > > We should see by morning. > > Well, it's the next day, and I don't see any resolution. I think that the > splits in the leadership are promising, though small. But.the best > organized force is the Revolutionary Guard, and they appear to be > fanatical. > I'd guess, if push came to shove, they wouldn't mind killing thousands to > keep orderand I don't see anyone standing up to them in a fight. > > Whatever the final outcome Ahmadinejad's position has to have been > severely weakened. As he's a nut case, this is a very good thing. > Doug ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
RE: Iran
> > Things do not look overly promising for the protesters, but if they manage > to make it through tomorrow without their heads being cracked Iranian > public sentiment may swing decisively in their direction. It really > depends on how hard the Supreme Ayatollah swings back at them. > > We should see by morning. Well, it's the next day, and I don't see any resolution. I think that the splits in the leadership are promising, though small. But.the best organized force is the Revolutionary Guard, and they appear to be fanatical. I'd guess, if push came to shove, they wouldn't mind killing thousands to keep orderand I don't see anyone standing up to them in a fight. Dan M. ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Heinlein
Alberto Monteiro wrote: How is The Number of the Beast? I read an excerpt from the book way back before it was published (in Omni) and was hot to read the book after that but for one reason or the other never picked it up. If you didn't like "Cat" you probably won't like "Number". OTOH, it makes reference to many classical sf (and fantasy) stories, so maybe if you like those other stories you will like it. Tons and tons of SF and Fantasy references and tropes. I think that I probably only caught a small percentage of them when I read that. I certainly would steer you away from Number until you've read more of Heinlein's other stuff: All four of Heinlein's last books (Time Enough for Love, The Number of the Beast, The Cat Who Walks Through Walls, and To Sail Beyond the Sunset) act as something of a single "capstone" work culminating together something of a final epilogue (or rather, epilogues) for Heinlein's massive "Future History", which he basically admits in "Cat" ends up as very much a somewhat quaint "Future History of the Past" by the time he's done, and embarking on a meta-journey that is both respectful to his (and other SF/Fantasy) earlier writings and yet a playful jab at them as well. If you don't like (heavy) meta-fiction or the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics you definitely should avoid the last three. I found them sometimes silly fun. As for Heinlein's politics, he certainly leaned somewhat to the libertarian side, but I think he was more complex than that (for instance, the mixture of the "socialist" influences that he had) and I certainly feel that a strength of his was in playing with political extremes in his works and hiding his own actual political beliefs below trying to make his character's beliefs "realistically" their own. At best, his works make you think and question your place in society. So certainly the political ideals in The Moon is a Harsh Mistress are flawed, but it is hard not to admire their "spirit". -- --Max Battcher-- http://worldmaker.net ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Heinlein
Doug Pensinger wrote: > > >> "Cat" is the worst possible "First Heinlein" to read. It makes too >> many references to other books, it should be Heinlein's _last_. > > Cat wasn't my first Heinlein, I'd read a few others including > Stranger in a Strange Land which I enjoyed. > Ok, but "Cat" makes so much references to other books (including "Moon", the Future History and specially "Number") that reading it without the other books is a huge spoiler. [The Moon is a Harsh Mistress] > >> Since you didn't read "Cat", you didn't see how the Anarchy evolved >> in the Moon: it didn't. Even in "Moon", Manuel says so. > > It didn't in the end, but you get the feeling that the author thinks > that its a good idea. > No... We get the feeling that _Manuel_ thinks it's a good idea. Somehow the book passes the idea that Anarchy is not practical due to human nature. > Certainly, the system prior to the revolution with its chuck 'em > out the door if you don't like 'em justice is to a large degree > anarchical, and Manny seems to take a great deal of pride in that > element of the system. > Yes, but Manny is a kind of Moon-elite :-) > How is The Number of the Beast? I read an excerpt from the book > way back before it was published (in Omni) and was hot to read > the book after that but for one reason or the other never > picked it up. > If you didn't like "Cat" you probably won't like "Number". OTOH, it makes reference to many classical sf (and fantasy) stories, so maybe if you like those other stories you will like it. And Gregory Benford makes a cameo appearance at the end of it. I think the sf community should force him to write an account of his (or, rather, he-made-character's) experiences in that book. Alberto Monteiro ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Re: Heinlein [was: Good Reading, Anyone?]
Alberto wrote: > > > "Cat" is the worst possible "First Heinlein" to read. It makes too > many references to other books, it should be Heinlein's _last_. Cat wasn't my first Heinlein, I'd read a few others including Stranger in a Strange Land which I enjoyed. [The Moon is a Harsh Mistress] > > The story was decent; somewhat dated > > but still interesting. > > I love that story! > > > I'm not a big fan of Heinlein's politics; the idea that any kind > > of anarchical system would be workable inspires incredulity, > > Since you didn't read "Cat", you didn't see how the Anarchy evolved > in the Moon: it didn't. Even in "Moon", Manuel says so. It didn't in the end, but you get the feeling that the author thinks that its a good idea. Certainly, the system prior to the revolution with its chuck 'em out the door if you don't like 'em justice is to a large degree anarchical, and Manny seems to take a great deal of pride in that element of the system. How is The Number of the Beast? I read an excerpt from the book way back before it was published (in Omni) and was hot to read the book after that but for one reason or the other never picked it up. Doug > > > ___ > http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com > > ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
Heinlein [was: Good Reading, Anyone?]
Doug Pensinger wrote: > > I'm sure a lot of you have read the Heinlein, but this was my first > attempt since I threw The Cat who Walks through Walls across the room, > unfinished, many years ago. "Cat" is the worst possible "First Heinlein" to read. It makes too many references to other books, it should be Heinlein's _last_. [The Moon is a Harsh Mistress] > The story was decent; somewhat dated > but still interesting. I love that story! > I'm not a big fan of Heinlein's politics; the idea that any kind > of anarchical system would be workable inspires incredulity, Since you didn't read "Cat", you didn't see how the Anarchy evolved in the Moon: it didn't. Even in "Moon", Manuel says so. Alberto Monteiro ___ http://mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l_mccmedia.com
