RE: Population growth rate differentials and consequences

2009-07-11 Thread Dan M

> Behalf Of Andrew Crystall
> Also, the "European" trends are based mostly on the analysis of the
> "old EU" countries, and not the countries the EU has more recently
> expanded to cover, which have younger and more fertile populations.
> 

OK, let's look at the fertility rate for countries added since 2000 from

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_European_Union_enlargements#History_
of_European_Union_enlargements


Bulgaria   1.48
Czech Republic  1.23
Estonia  1.42
Hungary  1.34
Latvia   1.29
Lithuania  1.22
Poland   1.27
Romania  1.38
Slovakia 1.34
Slovenia 1.27

I hope you notice that _all ten_ have fertility rates under 1.5.  GB and
France are the two main countries that are above the 1.5, with GB at 1.66,
and France at 1.89.


Dan M. 


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Re: Population growth rate differentials and consequences

2009-07-11 Thread Andrew Crystall
On 11 Jul 2009 at 13:59, Dan M wrote:

> The US is almost perfectly on the ZPG point.  It accepts far more immigrants
> than anyone else, so it will continue to grow.  China has a big demographic

Um, quite apart from the issues with that being cracked down on for 
the sort of people you'd think they'd actually want in recent years 
(but let's not go into the H1-B fiasco), the UK is looking at 80 
million (15 million more) people by 2050.

Also, the "European" trends are based mostly on the analysis of the 
"old EU" countries, and not the countries the EU has more recently 
expanded to cover, which have younger and more fertile populations.

AndrewC


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