RE: The limits of vision
I thought that they got some of it right. I found this part most funny: The purpose of this improved Zworykin-Von Neumann automaton is to predict the weather with an accuracy unattainable before 1980. It is a combination of calculating machine and forecaster. The calculator solves thousands of separate equations in a minute; Now that's funny. We do billions per sec, and it still is not enough. You can buy 7 Teraflops out of the box, and its still not enough to accurately predict weather. the automatic forecaster carries out the computer's instructions and predicts the weather from hour to hour. In 1950, meteorologists had no time to deal with the 50-odd variables that should have been mathematically handled to predict the weather 24 hours in advance. 50-odd variables funny! Following suggestions made by Zworykin and Von Neumann storms are more or less under control. It is easy enough to spot a budding hurricane in the doldrums off the coast of Africa. Before it has a chance to gather much strength and speed as it travels westward toward Florida, oil is spread over the sea and ignited. Yeah, like that would be allowed. The 50's seemed to lack any sort of idea about environmentalism. There is an updraft. Air from the surrounding region, which includes the developing hurricane, rushes in to fill the void. The rising air condenses so that some of the water in the whirling mass falls as rain. That would have to be one big damn fire! I found the reference to Orwell helicopter corporation a bit strange.. Orwell? Like George Orwell? What we call robotic factories they call intelligence integrate industrial production . I find this interesting because they seemed to lack the proper language to describe robotic automation. They also mentioned using endless punch cards to program the robotic process. and lastly, It takes no more than a minute to transmit and receive in facsimile a five-page letter on paper of the usual business size. Cost? Five cents. Hehehe... They never envisioned spam! NFH -Original Message- From: Robert Seeberger [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Sunday, July 13, 2003 1:32 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: The limits of vision http://architecture.mit.edu/house_n/web/resources/articles/life inthefuture/MIRACLES%20OF%20THE%20NEXT%20FIFTY%20YEARS.htm The year 200 as viewed from 1950 xponent Almost Maru rob ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: The limits of vision
Chad Cooper wrote: What we call robotic factories they call intelligence integrate industrial production . I find this interesting because they seemed to lack the proper language to describe robotic automation. They also mentioned using endless punch cards to program the robotic process. I liked the guys ready to go and replace a vacuum tube as soon as it blew... Actually, not having seen solid state electronics was probably the root of most of the misses in the article. Not counting medical stuff, if we didn't have the transistor, the world would be a lot closer to what he described. Cheers Russell C. ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
The limits of vision
http://architecture.mit.edu/house_n/web/resources/articles/lifeinthefuture/MIRACLES%20OF%20THE%20NEXT%20FIFTY%20YEARS.htm The year 200 as viewed from 1950 xponent Almost Maru rob ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: The limits of vision
--- Robert Seeberger [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: http://architecture.mit.edu/house_n/web/resources/articles/lifeinthefuture/MIRACLES%20OF%20THE%20NEXT%20FIFTY%20YEARS.htm The year 2000 as viewed from 1950 ...Tuberculosis in all of its forms is cured as easily as pneumonia was cured at mid-century Even in 1950 physicians did not know exactly how a piece of beefsteak is converted by the body into muscle and energythe process technically known as metabolism. The physician of 2000 knows just what diet is best for a patient. This knowledge, coupled with his knowledge of hormones, enables him to treat old age as a degenerative disease. Men and women of 70 in A.D. 2000 look as if they were 40... LOL Well, then they really did think that they'd figured out how to defeat microbes...but they forgot that *artificial selection* is even more potent than natural selection at forcing change. Cooking As An Artform Will Never Die Maru __ Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! http://sbc.yahoo.com ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: The limits of vision
At 03:15 PM 7/13/03 -0700, Deborah Harrell wrote: --- Robert Seeberger [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: http://architecture.mit.edu/house_n/web/resources/articles/lifeinthefuture/MIRACLES%20OF%20THE%20NEXT%20FIFTY%20YEARS.htm The year 2000 as viewed from 1950 ...Tuberculosis in all of its forms is cured as easily as pneumonia was cured at mid-century Even in 1950 physicians did not know exactly how a piece of beefsteak is converted by the body into muscle and energythe process technically known as metabolism. The physician of 2000 knows just what diet is best for a patient. This knowledge, coupled with his knowledge of hormones, enables him to treat old age as a degenerative disease. Men and women of 70 in A.D. 2000 look as if they were 40... LOL Well, then they really did think that they'd figured out how to defeat microbes...but they forgot that *artificial selection* is even more potent than natural selection at forcing change. Actually, I suspect that many of today's 70-year-olds are as healthy as the 40-year-olds who lived when the article was written. (If nothing else, recall that the reason the retirement age for Social Security was set at 65 was because at the time relatively few people would live long enough to draw any benefits . . . ) --Ronn! :) I always knew that I would see the first man on the Moon. I never dreamed that I would see the last. --Dr. Jerry Pournelle ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: The limits of vision
--- Ronn!Blankenship [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Deborah Harrell wrote: --- Robert Seeberger wrote: http://architecture.mit.edu/house_n/web/resources/articles/lifeinthefuture/MIRACLES%20OF%20THE%20NEXT%20FIFTY%20YEARS.htm The year 2000 as viewed from 1950 ...Tuberculosis in all of its forms is cured as easily as pneumonia was cured at mid-century Even in 1950 physicians did not know exactly how a piece of beefsteak is converted by the body into muscle and energythe process technically known as metabolism. The physician of 2000 knows just what diet is best for a patient. This knowledge, coupled with his knowledge of hormones, enables him to treat old age as a degenerative disease. Men and women of 70 in A.D. 2000 look as if they were 40... LOL Well, then they really did think that they'd figured out how to defeat microbes...but they forgot that *artificial selection* is even more potent than natural selection at forcing change. Actually, I suspect that many of today's 70-year-olds are as healthy as the 40-year-olds who lived when the article was written. I don't think there's a 30-year gap, but certainly we know how to take care of ourselves better now. If people quite smoking and wore sunscreen SPF 30+ when outdoors, they would sure _look_ better as well as be healthier too. (If nothing else, recall that the reason the retirement age for Social Security was set at 65 was because at the time relatively few people would live long enough to draw any benefits . . . ) I don't recall when Social Security was started... The 'average American' life expectancy in 1950 was ~68, higher for women and lower for blacks; in 2000, it's almost 77, similar varience WRT gender and race. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/pdf/nvsr51_03tb12.pdf (the table is at the 'top' of the file) Wow -- in 1900, it was ~47 for whites, and only mid-30s for blacks! By 1930, it was about 60(W) and 48(B). That's a huge difference in just 100 years. (I think women's lifespans started to go up as obsetrical care improved, and childbirth became less hazardous.) Debbi who is very glad to be alive *now* and not *then* __ Do you Yahoo!? SBC Yahoo! DSL - Now only $29.95 per month! http://sbc.yahoo.com ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: The limits of vision
Deborah Harrell wrote: --- Ronn!Blankenship [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: (If nothing else, recall that the reason the retirement age for Social Security was set at 65 was because at the time relatively few people would live long enough to draw any benefits . . . ) I don't recall when Social Security was started... The 'average American' life expectancy in 1950 was ~68, higher for women and lower for blacks; in 2000, it's almost 77, similar varience WRT gender and race. http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/pdf/nvsr51_03tb12.pdf (the table is at the 'top' of the file) It was started, and 65 set as the retirement age, in the 1930s. My father-in-law's analysis of it is that, at that time, at 65 you had one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel. Looks like 3 out of Sammy's 4 grandparents will make it to 70 (the grandmothers each have less than a year to go, the grandfather who's still alive made it almost 2 years ago), and all are drawing Social Security. None of them *needs* that income, either. Julia stop me before I start going on about means testing ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: The limits of vision
Robert Seeberger wrote: http://architecture.mit.edu/house_n/web/resources/articles/lifeinthefuture/MIRACLES%20OF%20THE%20NEXT%20FIFTY%20YEARS.htm The year 200 as viewed from 1950 1) I like the idea of just being able to hose down everything in the house. (Doesn't cover older things such as, say, the upright piano, though) 2) It's been my experience that with frozen dinners, it just *tastes* better if you do it in the conventional oven rather than in the microwave. (And cooking is probably not going to go out for as long as people have palates that appreciate subtle differences. Dan cheats and starts with a base of Prego, but he adds so much so carefully that his spaghetti sauce comes out tasting significantly better, at least if you like basil, garlic and a little red pepper, plus a few other things.) 3) Forecast of home of tomorrow? picture caption caught my eye -- I see buildings for businesses going up all the time where the sides are made of concrete poured into forms and then propped up put together. 4) Easy cure of TB -- I wish! 5) Ditto on nervous diseases such as MS Parkinson's. Cool article. Thanks, Rob! Julia ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
Re: The limits of vision
- Original Message - From: Julia Thompson [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: Killer Bs Discussion [EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Sunday, July 13, 2003 10:50 PM Subject: Re: The limits of vision Robert Seeberger wrote: http://architecture.mit.edu/house_n/web/resources/articles/lifeinthefuture/MIRACLES%20OF%20THE%20NEXT%20FIFTY%20YEARS.htm The year 200 as viewed from 1950 1) I like the idea of just being able to hose down everything in the house. (Doesn't cover older things such as, say, the upright piano, though) Or the electronics. 2) It's been my experience that with frozen dinners, it just *tastes* better if you do it in the conventional oven rather than in the microwave. For the most part, I'm not particular, I'm just feeding the machine. 3) Forecast of home of tomorrow? picture caption caught my eye -- I see buildings for businesses going up all the time where the sides are made of concrete poured into forms and then propped up put together. Thats called Tilt-Wall construction, for obvious reasons. 4) Easy cure of TB -- I wish! Probably the broadest miss in the article! 5) Ditto on nervous diseases such as MS Parkinson's. As with TB, things have gotten better and then much worse. We now have resistant bacteria and greater spread with prion related illnesses. Cool article. Thanks, Rob! I'm glad yall enjoyed it! xponent Just Take A Look At The Menu We Give You Rock A La Carte Breakfast At Tiffanies See You In Germany We're Only Here To Entertain You Maru rob ___ http://www.mccmedia.com/mailman/listinfo/brin-l
