Re: [Cerowrt-devel] [Starlink] Anhyone have a spare couple a hundred million ... Elon may need to start a go-fund-me page!

2021-08-10 Thread Bob McMahon via Cerowrt-devel 
--- Begin Message ---
 sorry about that

The below was written two decades ago and we're still fiddling around with
fraudband. Hey, today in 2021, comcast will sell a select few 2 Gb/s
symmetric over a fiber strand using a juniper switch, leased of course,
designed in 2011. Talk about not keeping up with modern mfg of ASICs, and
associated energy efficiencies. In the meantime we continue on destroying
the planet and Musk wants our offspring to live on Mars, while Bezos thinks
he's creating a new industry in space tourism. To the writeup about why we
need to rethink broadband. Eli Noam is also quite prescient written in 1994
(http://www.columbia.edu/dlc/wp/citi/citinoam11.html )

Rather than realistic, I think you are instead being 'reasonable.' There is
a big difference. I am reminded of a quote:

"A reasonable man adapts himself to suit his environment. An unreasonable
man persists in attempting to adapt his environment to suit himself.
Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man."
--George Bernard Shaw

Most CEO's, excluding start-ups, fall into the reasonable man camp (though
they were unreasonable once). Make the most of your current surroundings
while expending the minimal effort. It's good business sense for short term
results, but ignores the long term. It dictates a forward strategy of
incrementalism. It ignores the cumulative costs of the incremental
improvements and the diminishing returns of each successive increment.
Therefore each new increment has to be spaced farther out in time, which is
not desirable from a long-term business point of view. That business case
deteriorates longer term, but is easier to see shorter term. Short-term
thinking, driven by Wall Street, seems to be the only mode corporate
America can operate in.

This incrementalism mentality with 18 month upgrade cycles is fine for
consumer gadgets where the consumer knows they will have an accounting loss
on the gadget from the day they buy it. The purchaser of the gadget never
expects to make money on it. That's why they are called "consumers." That's
one of the only environments where 18 month upgrade cycles can persist.

Network infrastructure deployment is an entirely different food chain.
Under the current models, the purchaser of equipment (e.g. a service
provider) is not a consumer. It is a business that has to make a net profit
off selling services enabled by the equipment. This defies 18 month upgrade
cycles of "consumer" goods. A couple thousand bucks per subscriber takes a
long time for a network operator to recover, when you rely on a couple
percent of that, in NET income not revenue, per month. It is not conducive
to Wall Street driven companies. Thus, the next step has to be a 10-year
step.

Yet, consumers spend thousands every couple years on consumables they will
lose money on (essentially a 100% loss). Many even finance these purchases
at the ridiculous rates of credit cards, adding further to their accounting
loss. The value of these goods and services to the consumer is
justified/rationalized in non-accounting-based ways. In that light,
customer-owned networks are not such a stretch. In fact they would be an
asset that can be written off for tax purposes. The main difference is it
isn't in your physical possession, in your home, so you can't show people
your new gadget. Not directly anyway.

The "realistic" view of network infrastructure deployment (as opposed to
the reasonable view) is that today's access network infrastructure is the
wrong platform to grow from, and the wrong business model to operate under.
It can't grow like a consumer product (CD players, DVD players, PC's, etc)
because it is not a consumer product and the consumer does not have the
freedom of choice in content and applications providers (which was an
important part of the growth of those consumer markets).

Piling new money into the old infrastructure and its operating model
failure is not a realistic approach, because of diminishing returns. It was
never intended to provide real broadband connectivity, to each user, and
the operating costs are way too high. Besides, real broadband undermines
the legacy businesses of the monopoly owners.

A 100x increase in the base platform is needed in order to have a platform
that accommodates future growth in services and applications. That way it
doesn't require yet another infrastructure incremental upgrade each step of
the way. This connectivity platform also must be decoupled from the content
and services.

Access network growth cannot progress in small increments or on 18 month
upgrade cycles. It can't be small increments because these increments
enable nothing new and add little if any tangible value. They simply make
the present-day excuses for applications less annoying to use. This
approach will never make it through the next increment, and is arguably the
chasm where we sit today. It can't be 18 month cycles because the
equipment's accounting life is much longer than that. It

Re: [Cerowrt-devel] [Starlink] Anhyone have a spare couple a hundred million ... Elon may need to start a go-fund-me page!

2021-08-10 Thread Jeremy Austin 
A 5.7% reduction in funded locations for StarLink is… not dramatic. If the
project falls on that basis, they've got bigger problems. Much of that
discrepancy falls squarely on the shoulders of the FCC and incumbent ISPs
filing form 477, as well as the RDOF auction being held before improving
mapping — as Rosenworcel pointed out. The state of broadband mapping is
still dire.

If I felt like the reallocation of funds would be 100% guaranteed to
benefit the end Internet user… I'd cheer too.

If.

JHA

On Tue, Aug 10, 2021 at 12:16 PM Dick Roy  wrote:

> You may find this of some relevance!
>
>
>
>
> https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/07/ajit-pai-apparently-mismanaged-9-billion-fund-new-fcc-boss-starts-cleanup/
>
>
>
> Cheers (or whatever!),
>
>
>
> RR
>
>
> ___
> Starlink mailing list
> starl...@lists.bufferbloat.net
> https://lists.bufferbloat.net/listinfo/starlink
>


-- 
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Preseem | Aterlo Networks
preseem.com

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Re: [Cerowrt-devel] [Starlink] Anhyone have a spare couple a hundred million ... Elon may need to start a go-fund-me page!

2021-08-10 Thread David Lang 
the biggest problem starlink faces is shipping enough devices (and launching the 
satellites to support them), not demand. There are enough people interested in 
paying full price that if the broadband subsities did not exist, it wouldn't 
reduce the demand noticably.


but if the feds are handing out money, SpaceX is foolish not to apply for it.

David Lang

On Tue, 10 Aug 2021, Jeremy Austin wrote:


Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2021 12:33:11 -0800
From: Jeremy Austin 
To: dick...@alum.mit.edu
Cc: Cake List ,
Make-Wifi-fast ,
Bob McMahon , starl...@lists.bufferbloat.net,
codel ,
cerowrt-devel ,
bloat 
Subject: Re: [Starlink] Anhyone have a spare couple a hundred million ... Elon
 may need to start a go-fund-me page!

A 5.7% reduction in funded locations for StarLink is… not dramatic. If the
project falls on that basis, they've got bigger problems. Much of that
discrepancy falls squarely on the shoulders of the FCC and incumbent ISPs
filing form 477, as well as the RDOF auction being held before improving
mapping — as Rosenworcel pointed out. The state of broadband mapping is
still dire.

If I felt like the reallocation of funds would be 100% guaranteed to
benefit the end Internet user… I'd cheer too.

If.

JHA

On Tue, Aug 10, 2021 at 12:16 PM Dick Roy  wrote:


You may find this of some relevance!




https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/07/ajit-pai-apparently-mismanaged-9-billion-fund-new-fcc-boss-starts-cleanup/



Cheers (or whatever!),



RR


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