-Caveat Lector- ------- Forwarded message follows ------- Date sent: Fri, 27 Jul 2001 09:10:32 -0400 Send reply to: Organic Gardening Discussion List <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: OT - Normal and Man Induced Global Warming of Earth: To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Normal and Man Induced Global Warming of Earth: Source: http://www.mich.com/~donald/future.html by Donald E Davison, July 27 2001 In order to properly understand the current global warming picture we need to first view normal global climate, that is, without the influence of mankind. Once we understand what has been happening for billions of years and what we can expect of the future under normal conditions, then we can add in human induced climate change. We need to look at a very long climate period, from the start of life on earth to recent times. Before life on earth the climate was much warmer than now. At this end of that long climate period, in the last million years, there has been a series of ice ages. This is proof that the long term trend has been a cooling down of the planet. I say this is the result of the storing of carbon, but even if I am wrong, we should do what we can to stop this cooling down of the planet. As soon as life began, carbon started to be stored, first in the life itself then in the form of top soil, peat, coal, oil, natural gas, etc. For billions and billions of years our planet has been storing away more and more carbon and for billions and billions of years our planet has been getting cooler and cooler until now it spends most of its time locked into ice ages lasting about 100,000 years each, divided by much shorter warm periods, most only ten thousand years long. >From reports I have read, we are currently 12,000 years into a 30,000 year warm period. While three of four warm periods between ice ages are only 10,000 years long, every fourth warm period lasts 30,000 years. This, we are told, is because every once in awhile our planet goes into a more circular orbit around the sun. This causes our planet to receive a bit more heat, which makes the warm period last longer. My guess would be that the normal peak temperature of this current warm period would be reached sometime after the mid-point of our current 30,000 year warm period, which would be more than three thousand years from now. There is enough time and heat in a 30,000 year warm period to melt all the sheet ice in the world, including Greenland and Antarctica. We do not know exactly when this will be completed, but it could happen before the mid-point of our current warm period. Once the average temperature is above freezing at a major ice sheet, the ice will break up and slide quickly into the seas, ten or twenty or a hundred years is quick-time compared to thirty thousand years. First Greenland and then Antarctica, this will cause the seas to rise sixty to eighty feet. This rise is going to happen regardless of anything mankind has done or will do. We will not be able to escape this big disruption, bigger than any mankind has ever faced. The rising seas will displace millions of people around the world, sixty-five million in United States alone. In the future, under normal conditions, we can expect the next ice age will start in about the year 20,000. During which, sea levels will drop about 200 feet below current levels, but the drop will not be a major disruption because it will happen slowly over thousands of years. The ice caps will be a disruption. We can expect the cooling of the planet to continue with future ice ages having larger and larger ice caps. That is the future climate picture for our planet without the influence of mankind. With the added influence of man taking carbon out of storage and putting it into the atmosphere, temperatures in this warm period will rise faster and will reach higher levels than the normal peak. This current warm period will last longer than the expected normal of 30,000 years, maybe for millions of years if mankind is able to stop and reverse the long term cooling trend. This is something that mankind should try to do, we should reverse the cooling trend. Yes, man has the power to delay the arrival of future ice ages, this will be good for life on this planet. Mankind should be able to take this planet back to the climate that existed before the ice ages. There will be no fear that man will go too far back in climate time. Man will never be able to find and release all the carbon that has been stored in the crust of the earth over billions of years. Human induced global warming will cause the coming rise of sea levels to happen sooner than normal. We should accept `sooner than normal' as a trade-off for the value of energy we receive from stored carbon and the value of stopping and reversing the cooling down of the planet. The seas are going to rise anyway, man may as well accept the fact and plan accordingly. It would be nice if we could plant detectors that will give us some advance warning of when an ice sheet is going to break up. Even a one year advance knowledge will be very helpful. David Evans has predicted that Europe's biggest glacier will disintegrate in the next few years. We should watch and see if he is correct. If so, then maybe his method of predicting the break-up can be used with Greenland and Antarctica. The following part of the report contains David's exact quotes. REYKJAVIK, Iceland, Oct. 22 2000(UPI) -- A British newspaper reported Sunday [that] new research shows Europe's biggest glacier is about to disintegrate. The Observer report -- based on an interview with David Evans, of Glasgow University, who has spent decades studying the glacier -- says the mighty Breidamerkurjokull in southern Iceland is breaking apart. Evans said that the glacier "is beginning to disintegrate and in the next few years will collapse" into the north Atlantic. The newspaper quotes Evans saying: "The glacier has been shrinking for most of the twentieth century .. However, it is clear it is now approaching the point where a great mass of it will soon break up, and pour down to the sea." Mankind must be willing to adapt to a changing world. In closing, I would like to say that my comments on global warming are based on the reports by others that I have read. Like most people, I do not actually take measurements and crunch reams of numbers. I merely observe the issue and comment. ------- End of forwarded message ------- -- Best Wishes Woolybooger for the day: We've already had too much economic growth in the US. Economic growth in rich countries like ours is the disease, not the cure. -Paul Ehrlich, author of Population Bomb and Population Explosion, Stanford University biologist and Advisor to Vice President Albert Gore. <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/";>www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. That being said, CTRLgives no endorsement to the validity of posts, and always suggests to readers; be wary of what you read. CTRL gives no credence to Holocaust denial and nazi's need not apply. Let us please be civil and as always, Caveat Lector. ======================================================================== Archives Available at: http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html <A HREF="http://peach.ease.lsoft.com/archives/ctrl.html";>Archives of [EMAIL PROTECTED]</A> http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/ <A HREF="http:[EMAIL PROTECTED]/";>ctrl</A> ======================================================================== To subscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SUBSCRIBE CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] To UNsubscribe to Conspiracy Theory Research List[CTRL] send email: SIGNOFF CTRL [to:] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Om
