-Caveat Lector-

http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/world/middle_east/newsid_972000/
972500.stm

Saturday, 14 October, 2000, 18:22 GMT 19:22 UK

Analysis: What chance Egypt summit?

Palestinian and Israeli leaders have agreed to attend a summit in
Egypt to try to stop the violence that has halted the Middle East
peace process.

But given the failure of a recent summit in Paris between the two
sides, what hope is there for this meeting?

The stormy summit in France essentially collapsed over two
points:

The Palestinians stuck to their calls for an international inquiry into
the recent violence.

The Israelis stuck to their demands for Yasser Arafat to sign an
agreement to end the unrest.
The degree of divergence was so wide that, at one point, the United
States secretary of State, Madeleine Albright, had to run after Mr
Arafat and order the embassy guards to close the gates to keep
him from leaving.

Barak: Insisted on agreement to end violence
If anything, the two leaders now have even less room for manoeuvre.

The violence has worsened, the rhetoric has become harsher, and
opinions are more entrenched.

Mr Barak has invited the hardline Likud Party to form an
emergency coalition - a step seen by the Palestinians as a signal
that Israel has abandoned peace talks.

What control Mr Arafat has over the angry Palestinian crowds is
debatable - but many Palestinians say there is no going back, and
that the intifada, or uprising, is the only way to wring concessions
from Israel.

And, of course, there have been the television pictures: the
shooting of 12-year-old Palestinian boy in the arms of his father as
he pleaded for the gunfire to stop; and the public murder of Israeli
soldiers by a Palestinian mob whose killers proudly showed their
bloodied hands to the world.

Both sides have already expressed limited hopes for the up-coming
summit.

The agenda will be dominated by defusing the violence rather than
the substance of the peace negotiations.

The far-reaching territorial concessions Mr Barak offered at Camp
David, which nearly brought down his minority government and
sparked fierce public debate, look even less tenable.

This time President Bill Clinton will be present.
He certainly commands the respect of the participants but with the
presidential election looming, commentators are already describing
him as a lame duck.

One Palestinian spokesperson says the best that can be hoped for
is to end the immediate violence which, perhaps, may buy time for
a final push in the peace process.

###

The penalty good men pay for indifference to
public affairs is to be ruled by evil men.
-- Plato

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