And so, Bill Jeff, in his search for a legacy may have found a Washington Post
writer who has THE list of deeds ...
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A World of Problems . . .
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By Robert Kagan
Monday, April 10, 2000; Page A21
Call me crazy, but I think it actually would serve the national interest if
George W. Bush spent more time talking about foreign policy in this campaign.
Not to slight the importance of his statements on the environment and the
census. But perhaps Bush and his advisers can find time to pose a simple,
Reaganesque question: Is the world a safer place than it was eight years ago?
A hundred bucks says even James Carville can't answer that question in the
affirmative--at least not with a straight face. A brief tour d'horizon shows
why.
Iraq. As the administration enters its final months, Saddam Hussein is alive
and well in Baghdad, pursuing his quest for weapons of mass destruction, free
from outside inspection and getting wealthier by the day through oil sales
while the sanctions regime against him crumbles. The next president may see his
term dominated by the specter of Saddam Redux.
The Balkans. You can debate whether things are getting better in Bosnia, or
whether Kosovo is on its way to recovery or to disaster. And Clinton deserves
credit for intervening in both crises. But Slobodan Milosevic is still in power
in Belgrade, still stirring the pot in Kosovo and is on the verge of starting
his fifth Balkan war in Montenegro. Milosevic was George Bush Sr.'s gift to
Bill Clinton; he will be Clinton's gift to Al Gore or George Jr.
China-Taiwan. Even Sinologists sympathetic to the Clinton administration's
policies think the odds of military conflict across the Taiwan Strait have
increased dramatically. Meanwhile, the administration's own State Department
acknowledges the steady deterioration of Beijing's human rights record. Good
luck to Al Gore if he tries to call China policy a success.
Weapons proliferation. Two years after India and Pakistan exploded nuclear
devices, their struggle over Kashmir remains the likeliest spark for the 21st
century's first nuclear confrontation. If this is the signal failure of the
Clinton administration's nonproliferation policies, North Korea's and Iran's
weapons programs come in a close second and third. Even the administration's
intelligence experts admit that the threat to the United States has grown much
faster than Clinton and Gore anticipated. And where is the missile defense
system to protect Americans in this frightening new era?
Haiti and Colombia. After nobly intervening in Haiti to restore a
democratically elected president in 1994, the administration has frittered away
the past 5 1/2 years. Political assassinations in Haiti are rife. Prospects for
stability are bleak. Meanwhile, the war in Colombia rages, and even a billion-
dollar aid program may not prevent a victory by narco-guerrillas. When the next
president has to send troops to fight in Colombia or to restore order in Haiti,
again, he'll know whom to thank.
Russia. Even optimists don't deny that the election of Vladimir Putin could be
an ominous development. The devastation in Chechnya has revealed the new
regime's penchant for brutality.
Add to all this the decline of the armed forces--even the Joint Chiefs complain
that the defense budget is tens of billions of dollars short--and you come up
with a story of failure and neglect. Sure, there have been some successes: NATO
expansion and, maybe, a peace deal in Northern Ireland. Before November,
Clinton could pull a rabbit out of the hat in the Middle East. But Jimmy Carter
had successes, too. They did not save him from being painted as an ineffectual
world leader in the 1980 campaign.
Bush may be gun-shy about playing up foreign policy after tussling with John
McCain in the primaries. But Gore is no McCain. He is nimble on health care and
education, but he is clumsy on foreign policy. Bush may not be a foreign policy
maven, but he's got some facts on his side, as well as some heavy hitters.
Colin Powell, Dick Cheney, George Shultz and Richard Lugar, instead of
whispering in W.'s ear, could get out in public and help build the case. John
McCain could pitch in, too.
The offensive can't start soon enough. The administration has been adept at
keeping the American people in a complacent torpor: Raising the national
consciousness about the sorry state of the world will take time. And if Bush
simply waits for the next crisis before speaking out, he will look like a drive-
by shooter. Bush also would do himself, his party and the country a favor if he
stopped talking about pulling U.S. troops out of the Balkans and elsewhere.
Aside from such talk being music to Milosevic's ears, Republicans in Congress
have been singing that neo-isolationist tune for years, and the only result has
been to make Clinton and Gore look like Harry Truman and Dean Acheson.
Some may say it's inappropriate to "politicize" foreign policy. Please.
Americans haven't witnessed a serious presidential debate about foreign policy
since the end of the Cold War. Bush would do everyone a service by starting
such a debate now. He might even do himself some good. Foreign policy won't be
the biggest issue in the campaign, but in a tight race, if someone bothers to
wake the people up to the world's growing dangers, they might actually decide
that they care.
The writer, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace, writes a monthly column for The Post.
© 2000 The Washington Post Company
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