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Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War!
S T R A T F O R
THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY
http://www.stratfor.com
___________________________________________________________________
20 September 2001
THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
___________________________________________________________________
For China, Terrorism Fight a Double-Edged Sword
Summary
Beijing has offered to share information on suspected terrorists
with Washington as part of a proposed anti-terrorism coalition.
Meanwhile, Chinese officials have asked Washington to provide
"concrete evidence" before striking back at those suspected of
planning and assisting the Sept. 11 attacks in the United States.
Chinese officials are torn between joining international
cooperation -- which could help to prevent similar attacks in
China -- and fears that any unilateral responses by Washington
could trigger a wider war that could spread through Asia.
Analysis
Speaking at a conference of Asian and European police officials
Sept. 19, Jia Chunwang, China's minister of public security, said
China was committed to the international battle against
terrorism. Jia's comments followed those of another ministry
official who warned that countries should not disregard
international law when launching attacks "under the pretext of
'anti-terrorism.'"
Beijing's simultaneous offers of assistance and caution against
unilateral actions will continue. Chinese officials are concerned
that domestic Islamic separatism may intensify in the wake of the
attacks on the United States and any counterstrikes by
Washington. Although Beijing seeks international assistance and
justification for its crackdown on the Islamic ethnic Uighurs in
its western provinces, it fears Washington setting an
international precedent for unilateral actions against sovereign
nations, something that could work against China in the future.
China's cooperation in the proposed coalition against terrorism
opens the door to new forms of cooperation between Beijing and
Washington, particularly in Southeast Asia. For Beijing such
cooperation may also bolster China's efforts to quell the spread
of militant groups from Central Asia into western China, where
officials believe they have links to the Muslim Uighur
population.
Beijing recently intensified its crackdown on potential Uighur
separatists in the northwestern Xinjiang province, particularly
under the guise of the "Strike Hard" campaign, which is meant to
counter the rise of violent criminal groups. Uighur communities
have been targeted in other areas of the country as well. In
1999, government officials razed the traditional "Xinjiang
Village" in Beijing under the guise of street improvement.
It is not only the Uighurs that concern Beijing. Recently
violence broke out in the eastern Shandong province, after a
shopkeeper's display of "Halal Pork" offended the local Muslim
community. Police opened fire on a group of nearly 300 ethnic Hui
Muslims from nearby Hebei province who had come to protest; five
were killed and several injured, according to reports from the
Information Center for Human Rights and Democracy. Beijing also
keeps a wary eye on southern Yunnan province, where the
government fears the spread of Islamic militancy from Southeast
Asia.
China has long been criticized for its human rights practices,
particularly against minority ethnic and religious groups.
Beijing hopes to gain international assistance and even support
for its crackdown on potential and suspected Islamic separatists
and militants. But such cooperation is not without risks.
Because there is no internationally recognized definition of
terrorism, Chinese interpretations can differ markedly from those
of the United States. To Beijing the Dalai Lama could be
considered a terrorist or separatist for giving moral support to
Tibetan independence movements. Yet to Washington, China's own
actions in Tibet could be viewed in a similar way.
For Beijing, then, participating with an anti-terrorism coalition
minimizes the chances of Washington's definitions and
retaliations becoming the accepted global norm. Beijing fears the
coalition against terrorism could evolve into a coalition against
any number of things, which could eventually lead to interference
in China's own internal political issues.
Even more pressing for China, however, is preventing the United
States from triggering a broader Islamic militant war. Regional
media have already linked the Uighurs to Osama bin Laden and
Pakistani militants, and China has long worried that they have
ties to other Central Asian groups. With major Islamic
communities spread around the nation, Beijing wants to avoid a
repeat of the attacks in New York City and Washington in Shanghai
or Beijing.
___________________________________________________________________
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