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National Guard Magazine
Racing Against the Calendar
January 1999
With only 12 months now left to prepare, the National Guard's Y2K focus
involves
more than combat readiness. If the computer bug interrupts critical services,
local
authorities will need help. Maybe lots of help.
December 31, 1999 may be the biggest night of celebration the world has ever
seen.
But for some National Guardsmen, the eve of the millennium may mean a long
night at
the armory preparing to respond to the most widespread technological disaster
in
history.
Because of programming shortcuts that began more than 30 years ago, most of
the
nation's computer systems and billions of non-computer equipment that operate
off of
embedded microchips are poised to malfunction at the turn of the century.
Electricity. Oil and gas lines. Water and sewer systems. Telecommunications.
Airlines, trains and transit systems. Agriculture equipment. Emergency-support
vehicles. Medical equipment. Alarms. Smoke detectors. Automatic locks. Traffic
lights. Banking systems. Public records. All have the potential to go haywire
after
the stroke of midnight on Jan. 1, 2000.
And just like with other disasters, citizen soldiers and airmen are being
looked at
as the first line of defense.
Only this time they don't know exactly what to prepare for. "There are so many
things to look at that. Potentially, we could have a calamity over this," said
John
Myatt, a Florida National Guard spokesman. The federal and state governments
have
formed groups to study their own problems and gather information to determine
how
industries, businesses and municipalities are dealing with the issue so they
can
develop contingency plans.
But the problem is too broad to monitor everyone and some are reluctant to
provide
information for fear of liability lawsuits if they do not live up to their
claims.
So what's the Guard to do?
"We're going to plan for the worst-case scenario: no power and lots of panic,"
Myatt
said.
History
If you haven't heard by now, the "Year 2000 problem," or "Y2K" as it is known,
is
the result of a decades-old situation that materialized when programmers
attempted
to save computer memory by expressing years in two digits rather than four.
Because
such programs assume a higher number means a later year, 3002 may be
interpreted as
1900.
The gaffe apparently was not as much a lack of foresight as it was over
reliance on
outdated systems. Rather than replace the programs they knew would be
obsolete,
owners of the systems chose instead to do piecemeal upgrades without changing
the
two-digit dates.
The problem is not limited to computer systems, but to anything operated by an
embedded computer chip.
This means that anything from thermostats and coffee makers to traffic lights,
jail-cell doors and satellites could malfunction with the date change.
Fixing Computers and Embedded Chips
Before Guard units can determine how they can help others, they first have to
get
their own technological house in order. That is the stage of preparedness many
state
Guard organizations report to be in. But they say they are confident their
computers
will be prepared in time.
"Let me go out on a limb and say I think we in the Air National Guard will be
OK,"
said Maj. Gen. Paul A. Weaver Jr., Air National Guard director. "I don't think
we
will have any major catastrophes, but I do expect we'll experience some
temporary
mission disruptions that we need to plan for."
Senior Army Guard leaders echo the same sentiment.
Some are finding out how hard it can be to fix what seems like a simple
problem.
National Guard Bureau officials recently ordered new computers only to
discover that
some of them will not recognize the millennium. Those that are not compliant
can
affect the computers that are, said Jack Eck, the bureau's Y2K expert. Also,
some
agencies and companies are reporting a wait of as much as 72 weeks to receive
telephone switches after they are ordered, he said.
While most publicity surrounding the 2000 problem has centered on computers,
it is
the embedded chip devices that give Guard leaders the most concern.
"Like everyone else, we are having difficulties identifying all of the
embedded
electronic Y2K devices," Maureen Lischke, the bureau's program executive
officer,
said. "Given the reality that not everything will be found, we are
concentrating on
developing and testingcontingency plans to assure uninterrupted operations of
critical functions."
Unlike computers, embedded-chip equipment can't be replaced with software and
manufacturers stopped making many of the parts years ago. Besides that, the
people
overseeing the maintenance of things like elevators and security systems
usually are
not computer experts, Eck said. Computer technicians and maintenance workers
will
have to come together to fix such systems, he said.
Not All 1/1/2000
One thing that also has become clear with embedded chips is that not all
problems
will transpire at the turn of the millennium. Because much embedded-chip
equipment
operates on maintenance schedules, some equipment won't register a problem
with the
'00 raised concerns about how several upcoming dates will be received by both
embedded chips and computer systems.
Technology specialists expect there could be problems at the start of new
budget
cycles, July 1, 1999, for businesses and Oct. 1, 1999, for government offices.
Other problems could arise Sept. 9, 1999, when computers that have been
programmed
to read 9/9/99 as a shutdown command stop functioning.
DOD
All Defense Department agencies have been charged with developing contingency
plans
to handle situations when equipment doesn't recognize the millennium. For the
Guard,
that means reporting back on contingency plans made with states. To get the
process
started, representatives from 50 of the 54 states territories organizations
met at
the bureau in October to discuss their plans. The bureau will begin testing in
May
its ability to communicate with the state units in an emergency and the
Guard's
mobilization readiness based on a "Y2K hostile environment," Lischke said. The
bureau may hold a smaller demonstration in March to test the exercise, then
hold
multiple exercises until September 1999, when officials hope to have all
critical
missions compliant, she said.
The NGB is expected to establish a high-frequency radio network from
Washington,
D.C. to regional centers as a backup to microchips and satellites that could
fail
causing telephones, modems and pagers to stop working.
The bureau reported to the DoD in November that it has agreements with
virtually all
state governments on how to handle contingencies. However, some states are
"reluctant to become too dependent on the National Guard for disaster response
because they believe that the National Guard might be pre-empted by national
priorities," the report says. Because the department considers the Y2K issue
one of
readiness, rather than a computer problem, DOD officials have had to
prioritize
those to be fixed. They have identified 2,642, or fewer than 10 percent of
25,000
defense computer systems, as mission critical. Of those, 774 were deemed
compliant
in November.
Those systems cover command and control, satellites, inventory management,
transportation, medical and pay and personnel. Contingency plans must be
developed
for the possible failure of each, William Curtis, DOD's Y2K director, told the
House
subcommittee on Government Management, Information and Technology at a June
hearing.
The problem now is determining what is truly mission-critical. The DOD also
developed a "High Risk Systems Board" to meet with those who oversee Y2K
compliance
for each system that is in jeopardy. Still, "DoD needs to do a much better job
in
preparing," Curtis said. Earlier this year, the subcommittee upgraded DOD's
compliance efforts from a grade of "F" to "D." Of major concern is whether the
Defense Finance and Accounting Service will continue to issue paychecks
without a
hitch. DFAS officials said they expected to make compliant their system that
pays
Guard members by the end of December 1998.
Planning Contingencies
Whether there will be a federal mobilization at the millennium is undecided,
but
many Guard officials say that is unlikely. With growing concern from governors
about
the Guard's availability, most believe the Guard will, in fact, be left to
respond
to state emergencies.
So far, Wisconsin is one of the few states where Guard representatives are
saying
publicly that they already are planning to have Guard units staffed on Dec.
31,
1999. But several Guard members said they have heard that at least a dozen
state
governors are planning a call-up on millennium eve as a preventative measure.
What Guard units will do then or after the date change is unclear. Some say
there is
only so much they can do to prepare.
"The bottom line is, no one knows the answer to this," Lt. Col. Paul Fanning,
a
spokesman for the New York National Guard said. "Anyone who tells you they're
ready
for the Y2K bug probably doesn't really understand the threat."
Maj. Gen. Stephen Cortright, adjutant general of the Oklahoma National Guard
and
chairman of Oklahoma's state Y2K task force, said the Guard's ability to
respond
will hinge on how much it can learn about government and business
preparedness.
"We're not just waiting for them to hike the ball on Dec. 31," Cortright said.
What will be different for the Guard is also preparing to avoid economic
emergencies. In Oklahoma, that means staying in touch with the aerospace and
oil
industries. Some such industries can also spark environmental problems if
embedded
chip safety systems no longer detect poisonous gases, a scenario that happened
to
Phillips Petroleum Co. during a test of Y2K systems in the North Sea last
year.
However, the Guard will have to draw a fine line between preparing companies
and
responding to their emergencies, Cortright said. "We're here to monitor, but
we're
not here to fix everyone's problems," he said.
What to Prepare For
While most units expect to be called upon to direct traffic and evacuate
hospitals
and nursing homes, they may also be needed to respond for food delivery if
grocery
stores have to close for several days to fix price scanners.
Then there is the issue of civil unrest. What if bank vaults won9t lock and
looting
occurs? Or, long lines at gas stations cause rioting? "Pick any part of the
doom and
gloom and you can find all kinds of social unrest in those scenarios," said
Col.
Dennis Haire, a doctoral candidate in information technology and chief
information
officer of the Texas National Guard.
As part of contingency planning, Guard units will prioritize their
emergencies.
"I'm really not too concerned about John Q. Public's vehicle stopping in the
middle
of the street," Col. Gerald Olesen, a support staff officer with the Wisconsin
office of emergency management, said. "We plan on having enough equipment to
move
it. If need be, we'll use Humvees to push it out of the street."
What Olesen is concerned about is power outages in January when Wisconsin
temperatures average minus 10 degrees fahrenheit. "I'm extremely concerned
that
blackouts could cause people to freeze to death," he said. Even brownouts
could
cause medical equipment to malfunction and require hospital and nursing home
patients to be evacuated, Olesen said. The Wisconsin Guard is in the process
of
assessing back-up generators and emergency vehicles for compliance, he said.
Still, Olesen is of the common opinion that Y2K will mean disruptions, not
emergencies.
"We're going to have inconveniences, but we've got to stop thinking that we
can't
live without computers," he said. "If we take care of the emergencies,
everything
else will fall into place."
Jack Gribben, spokesman for the President's Council on the Year 2000
Conversion,
said the White House group is hearing that "the major infrastructure in the
country
will be just fine." Instead, Gribben said: "We think the disruptions are going
to be
more at the local level. We're finding, here and there, states and counties
that are
not on top of it." Gribben echoed concerns of Guard members that whether Y2K
is a
disaster will depend on public reaction to it.
"The system is not prepared for 250 million Americans to decide all at once to
do
the same thing," he said.
The answer, Lischke said, is in educating the public early that they can9t
wait
until Dec. 31, 1999, to stock up on groceries and gasoline. "A community that
is
informed and prepared is the best answer to eliminating panic," she said.
Some Guard members are finding the best way to do that is to be a leader in
their
own communities.
Senior Master Sgt. Tom Tabashinski, a technical specialist with the District
of
Columbia Air National Guard, has led discussions in his own neighborhood. As a
citizen airman, Tabashinski does not scoff at those who already are
stockpiling
necessities in their basements.
"The best way I can look at Y2K is in preparing for a storm," Tabashinski
said.
"Some people are going to be better prepared than others." But Tabashinski
warns
against every-man-for-himself tactics that promote withdrawing your money and
fleeing to rugged areas -- which he notes will be the last to regain services
if
things like power and water shut down. "Don't run to the hills," he said.
"Stay in
your communities and work with them. You can't go at this as an
individualist." If
people stick together, Tabashinski says he is not too concerned about the
Guard's
ability in handling Y2K.
"Whether we go to war or go downtown, we're going to be prepared," he said.
"Contingencies are not new to us, planning is not new to us and responding to
emergencies is not new to us."
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