[CTRL] Fwd: Y2K Tests: "Nothing much happened"
There have been a series of "Y2K Mile Stones" representing (http://wbn.com/y2ktimebomb/Computech/Issues/hyatt9840.htm) points in time after Jan 1, 1999 and before Jan 1, 2000 that would test the Y2K-computer-catastrophe thesis. The following from borderlands.com is commentary (in brackets) on those Y2K Mile Stones as outlined and explained at the URL cited above: == http://www.borderlands.com/y2k/nothinghappened.htm == Borderland Sciences will be updating this as the critical dates pass. Results so far: Nothing much happened. This was sent to me by Bob Roman [EMAIL PROTECTED] Michael Hyatt's Famous Predictions from October 1998 and His use of the word "WILL" Y2K: It's Closer Than You Think By Michael S. Hyatt October 12, 1998 Nine Millennial Milestones That WILL Signal the Chaos to Come Many people think that the disruptions stemming from unresolved Y2K problems WILL begin suddenly at midnight on January 1, 2000. Not so. The technological problems WILL begin in early 1999 and continue through at least February 2000. This WILL result in a gradual unraveling as things begin "coming apart at the seams." There are at least nine millennial milestones that you need to watch for: Milestone #1: January 1, 1999. On this date, testing is scheduled to begin for systems all over the world. As you have no doubt heard, many infrastructure providers and businesses have promised that their systems WILL be ready for testing on this date. According to the Gartner Group, 80 percent of the companies that have announced they WILL begin testing on this date WILL miss it. The travel industry WILL also get its first live test as it begins accepting reservations for dates into the next century. In addition, some business planning systems WILL fail as they begin processing dates beyond Y2K. To add insult to injury, the European Common Currency system goes online. This WILL create its own level of chaos and continued drain on Information Technology resources that could be used on the Year 2000 computer problem. As these problems and others begin to surface, you can expect the media to begin covering Y2K and a significantly more intense level. [Result: Nothing Happened!] Milestone #2: April 1, 1999. On this date, Canada, Japan, and the State of New York begin their fiscal year. This WILL, of course, include dates beyond Y2K. As a result, planning systems, especially budgets that have not been repaired WILL fail as they attempt to process Y2K dates. Since New York City is the media capitol of the world, problems there WILL grab headlines worldwide. Problems in Japan WILL remind everyone again of how interconnected our world is. The Japanese WILL also be forced to admit that there systems might not make it. I expect the stock market to react and begin (or continue) its downward spiral. Public confidence WILL continue to wane and the number of Y2K optimists WILL continue to dwindle. [Result: Nothing Happened! Other than there may be more Y2K optimists.] (Borderlands Note: See http://www.bakersfield.com/top/i--1276597210.asp as it appears some things did happen) Milestone #3: July 1, 1999. On this date, forty-four U.S. states begin their fiscal years. The problems that began in New York WILL now spread exponentially across the country and around the world. The public WILL feel the global and pervasive nature of the Y2K Problem for the first time. This WILL be further exacerbated by the fact that many states have not had the resources to adequately address their Millennium Bug problems. Consequently, the failures WILL be real and widespread. We WILL begin seeing the public begin to panic - particularly where there has not been strong local leadership. [Result: Nothing is happening. Not much public panic. More people believing it is Hoax!] Milestone #4: August 22, 1999. On this date, the Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) technology WILL fail in receivers that are not upgraded or replaced. The GPS system consists of twenty-four satellites that transmit signals to earth, which are in turn picked up by electronic receivers to determine a vehicle's exact location and velocity. They are installed in both military and civilian vehicles and devices, including fighters, bombers, commercial and private airplanes, helicopters, trains, ships, submarines, tanks, jeeps, missiles and other "smart" weapons, police cars and ambulances, and some newer-model cars. Unfortunately, this system has a date-related error in its receiver technology. There are some 10 million of these receivers installed throughout the world. Those that are not upgraded WILL produce inaccurate data that could prove to be dangerous and even life threatening. While not specifically a Y2K related problem, this computer glitch WILL add to the chaos and confusion. [Result: Nothing much happened again] (Borderlands Note: See "GPS rollover avoids Y2K-like mess") http://ww
[CTRL] [Fwd: Y2K - Yourdon Says He Was Wrong - It's Going To Be WORSE]
http://www.sightings.com/politics6/worse.htm Title: Y2K - Yourdon Says He Was Wrong - It's Going To Be WORSE SIGHTINGS Y2K - Yourdon Says He Was Wrong - It's Going To Be WORSE Ed Yourdon's "I know what I know"! http://www.yourdon.com/ 12-29-99 I hereby admit I was wrong. It will be worse. A couple of years ago, I put forward the idea that the combined effects of Y2K and the collapse of the stock market bubble would lead to a "devolutionary spiral", somewhat analogous to the fall of the Roman Empire and the beginning of the dark ages. At the end of one of these articles I concluded "Of course, I could be wrong. It could be worse" In another article I showed, mathematically, that the Y2K problem could never be completely solved and that the residual failures resulting from the fixes themselves would be enough to cause significant economic impacts, even without failures from all of the unfixed systems. I also predicted, perhaps overoptimistically, that the stock market bubble would burst in the first quarter of 1999. I hereby admit I was wrong. It will be worse. I was wrong about the timing of that collapse, but not about the state of Y2K or about the eventual crash of bubble.com. I am so very, very sorry it didn't collapse when I predicted. Not because I want it to happen, but because the delay means that the final crash will indeed be much, much worse than it needed to be. If the market collapse had occurred at the end of 1998 or beginning of 1999, as it logically should have, there would have been a full year for everyone to revise their expectations and to make major economic, budgetary and business planning changes before Y2K itself slams us in the first quarter of 2000. A collapse back then could still have been partially controlled, the market did not have so far to fall, and the first business failures and unemployment situations could have been handled with a mostly functional infrastructure and support systems. In short, we would have been forced (and able) to make realistic, useful contingency plans instead of relying on the nonsensical, irrational and mathematically impossible concept that Y2K has actually been fixed. It is now completely inevitable that Y2K and the bursting of bubble.com will occur at one and the same time, leading rapidly to a new Great Depression far worse, far deeper and far longer lasting than that of the 1930's. Because of the confluence of these and other events, I am now also convinced that we will also see a complete breakdown of the global monetary system, a series of vicious dictatorships and, within ten years, World War Three. Instead of 66% over fifty years, I now expect more than 90% of the world population will die within the next ten years. But, again, it could be worse. If a major nuclear exchange cannot be avoided in World War Three, the human race will quite simply cease to exist. Under present global political conditions, I consider this to be a very real possibility, if not yet a probability. Either way, as a species, we have lost our one chance to get off this planet and to survive, long term, as a civilized race among the stars. (I am referring here to my own Devolution theory, to the Olduvai theory, to astronomer Hoyle's similar theory, and to other scientifically based approaches which predict that we have only one shot at developing a successful technology based civilization). I know this will likely get the pollys jumping up and down on their perches but, frankly my dear, I don't give a damn. The time for debate ended about a year ago and there is no longer any useful purpose to be served in countering the polly arguments -- their damage has already been done, the lives of innocents have already been recklessly endangered, and previously possible recovery efforts have already been sabotaged by the shortage of bits in their processors. We'll let them squawk later, when we clean out their cage in the bubblegate trials. Until then remember that, although able to repeat complex sentences over and over again when carefully taught, polly's comprehension of the related subject matter is limited by an intellectual capacity roughly equivalent to that of a three year old child. To regular readers, who know that I rarely insult my opponents, I apologize for the above. I also apologize to my own parrot for dragging him down to this level. But, after all the vicious attacks so many of the pollys have made on me over the last few years, just for once, I couldn't resist the temptation. It's about as close as I normally get to losing my temper, so please forgive me, because this article is not aimed
[CTRL] Fwd: "Y2K" Struck DC in '71
http://www.wfs.org/gouchen.htm Back to the Future: Y2K Struck D.C. in '71 by John E. Gochenouer The Y2K problem has been thoroughly analyzed, discussed, and written about from almost every conceivable angle. Here is a look at what will happen after 01/01/2000, based on my experience -- that Y2K struck Washington, D.C., in 1971. The troubles began when a computer operator responded to a software query by pressing the Return key instead of entering the current date. As a result of this simple action, approximately 25% of the telephone grid in Washington, D.C., was impacted, including many of the government offices in the area popularly known as "Foggy Bottom." An AT&T officially apparently threatened a lawsuit against the offending organization, and it took almost two months for the organization's business to return to normal. This is how it happened, and the lesson is ominous. In the early 1970s, most accounting systems were still manual. Computers cost millions of dollars each and required skilled technicians and programmers to operate them. When I joined the accounting staff at George Washington University Hospital in 1970, automation consisted of electric calculators and posting machines. Within a year, this was to change. In 1970, the hospital began preparations for automating the accounting systems. In a building two blocks from the hospital was a computer that the university was underutilizing. University administrators had agreed to have the third shift, midnight to 8 a.m., available to the hospital. The hospital administration signed a contract with a local software developer for a patient accounts receivable package, signaling a new era for their information processing. This was my first computer, a 1960s vintage design called the IBM 360/30. This multimillion-dollar machine had 64,000 bytes (not megabytes) of memory and removable disk packs that had five 12-inch disks, with a combined storage capacity of seven megabytes (not terabytes, or even gigabytes) of data. The operating system used 12K of memory, which left a 52K partition that was the maximum allowable size for both programs and data stored in memory. Memory was not RAM, but rather tiny magnetic rings that wires passed through and was referred to as core memory. Given these restrictions, it should be easy to understand why programmers in those days tried to preserve every single byte of memory, including the first two digits, "19," of the year. Furthermore, the date routines for one program were used over and over again in other programs written years later. One of the reasons that there was little concern for Y2K was the belief that the programs would not survive. Almost all programs were "custom" written for organizations and the logic was frequently changed and replaced. Even in the 1980s, computer instructors were telling students that the average life-span of a program was five years. What wasn't being said was that "average" wasn't the important statistic. What was important was the life-span of the date routines in critical applications. The answer wasn't five years, it was decades; and the proof of that is awaiting us at the turn of the century. Such was the computer environment in 1970, when the hospital decided to automate the accounting system. As the young and eager supervisor of patient accounts, I played a key role in converting the manual system over to the new computerized billing system. Everything had to be retyped on punch card machines. Even though the computer allowed the use of tape input, we had to use punch card machines because there was no budget for the more expensive tape entry systems. This was all off-line work. The computer was far too primitive to allow for any on-line work and could only "talk" to its tape drive, card reader, and operator console, which was a big noisy electronic typewriter. After a couple of months of around-the-clock work, the system was ready for testing. As simple as an accounting package might seem today, it wasn't so simple in 1971. There were numerous bugs in the COBOL programs and JCL operating system commands that delayed the implementation date and caused considerable anxiety for the managers and administrators who participated in the decision to automate. But now the problems were fixed, the testing finally demonstrated that the software package was viable, and the information we entered about the patient accounts was reasonably accurate. It was time to throw the switch. Looking back, this seemed like such a crucial moment, but we didn't see it at the time. The participants had tested everything and it worked; we were naïve enough to think nothing could go wrong. So, having done his work, the hospital accounting manager went on vacation, leaving his trusted 22-year-old supervisor (me) in charge of the first month's billing cycle. The billing was done using continuous forms paper stock called Data Mailers. They were presealed envelop
[CTRL] Fwd: Y2K Conspiracy Goes Mainstream
Y2K Conspiracy Goes Mainstream by Declan McCullagh 3:00 a.m. 15.Jul.99.PDT WASHINGTON -- For many Y2K fanatics, the scariest threat on 1 January 2000 is not technology at all. It's the far more sinister specter of a power-mad president imposing martial law. Dark visions of U.S. Marines stomping through backyards on New Year's Eve 1999 are a staple of innumerable Y2K discussion groups. A typical post: "There is nothing secret about the fact [that the] US, UK and Canada are preparing for martial law." These sorts of ruminations are no longer the sole domain of fringe conspiracy buffs. They got a boost Wednesday from a conference hosted by the staid U.S. Reserve Officers Association, an eminently respectable organization that Congress chartered in 1920. During the full-day meeting, titled "National Conference on Presidential Powers and Executive Orders," and organized by an anti-UN advocacy group, legislators and lawyers warned that President Clinton could see Y2K disruptions as a convenient excuse to call out the troops and declare martial law. "President Clinton might take that opportunity?" asked an audience member from Concerned Women for America. "That is my fear," replied Representative Jack Metcalf (R-Washington). "It seems to me that the only emergency that we might see coming is the Y2K. [With] a power-hungry president, who knows what he might do." Conference organizer Cliff Kincaid agreed: "It appears we don't have a President anymore. We have a king." Kincaid is head of America's Survival, which is devoted to combating global organizations in general and the UN in particular. Attendees seemed suitably scared. There was Carolyn Betts, who was reading "The Day After Roswell," a fictional account of the U.S. government's coverup of a UFO incident. She told Wired News she suspected a clandestine agency had bombarded her Dupont Circle office in Washington, D.C. with high-frequency audio. "Both the people and the dogs had diarrhea," she said, adding that the masonry had started to crumble. For real Y2K conspiracy fans, the highlight of the day was a presentation by William Olsen, a lawyer at a McLean, Virginia, law firm. "We're headed on the road to tyranny," he said. Olsen declined to predict whether martial law -- or similar restrictions, such as military courts, seizure of private property, and suspension of normal due-process rights -- would definitely happen due to Y2K. But he did distribute to the 30-person audience a 27-page legal document he had coauthored. It shows, in exhaustive detail, that whoever occupies the Oval Office has near limitless power to declare emergencies and call out the troops, as President Wilson did in 1914 when he ordered the Army into Colorado with orders to disarm all residents and even police. Could it happen again? Quite possibly, Olsen said. "One wonders what the reaction will be next time." There have been earlier signs that some Washingtonians are considering an aggressive response to Y2K. Senator Robert Bennett, the Utah Republican who chairs the Senate Y2K task force, has asked the Pentagon what plans it has "in the event of a Y2K-induced breakdown of community services that might call for martial law," and a House subcommittee has recommended that President Clinton consider declaring a Y2K "national emergency." Like Olsen, other conference-goers cited history as evidence that martial law could go into effect. They pointed to President Lincoln, who usurped constitutional authority in well-chronicled ways. During the Civil War and Reconstruction, Lincoln's government arrested and tried civilians in military and civilian courts, ignoring rules of habeas corpus. This led to the passage of the Posse Comitatus Act, which restricts using the military for domestic law enforcement. Lincoln's justification was the inherent power of the commander-in-chief and his duty to "take Care that the Laws be faithfully Executed." When it comes to the use of troops to restore order during riots, however, the President can suspend the Posse Comitatus Act with the stroke of a pen. The law doesn't cover soldiers deployed as authorized by the Constitution or exempted from the act by statute. Further, some worry that courts may not be willing to confront the military during a time of genuine crisis. "A court may simply avoid deciding an important constitutional question in the midst of a war," Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist wrote in All the Laws but One. All the more reason to limit presidential authority, especially executive orders, says Congressman Metcalf. "The President's use of executive orders and proclamations is reckless," he said. Metcalf has introduced a nonbinding resolution that says, "It is the sense of the Congress" that executive orders be curtailed. He said he has 71 co-sponsors, including House Judiciary committee chairman Representative Henry Hyde (R-Illinois).
[CTRL] Fwd: Y2K May Trigger "Recession"
Subj:Y2k Recession Almost Certain; Griffith Date: 99-01-23 13:30:44 EST From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] (Tony Toews) To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Recession 'Almost Certain' Effect of Y2K Bug (Reynolds Griffith, Dallas Business Journal) http://www.amcity.com/dallas/stories/1999/01/04/editorial1.html?h=griffit h A professor of finance makes the case for this conclusion: "the Year 2000 Problem is likely to have significant economic effects, including a recession." Griffith's basic argument is as follows (he supplies evidence for each point). The cost of correcting the problem will be an enormous drag on the economy. And not all companies will get their systems corrected; even those that do may be affected by noncompliant customers and suppliers. As for particular industries, some banks will not be ready at the end of 1999, but (barring bank runs) the banking system won't collapse. Brownouts and some blackouts are expected. The government is lagging far behind. Therefore, given all that, there is potential for major economic dislocations. Strangely, not many economists are taking the problem seriously; an exception is Ed Yardeni, but even he "may be an optimist" in predicting a 70% chance of recession. "I would judge a recession almost certain. Given the interrelationships in our economy, even a small percentage of firms and agencies not being compliant can produce a significant downturn."
[CTRL] Fwd: y2k
> >Previous Article | Contents Page | Next Article > > > - > --- > HOUSEHOLD & NEIGHBORHOOD PREPAREDNESS > > Boulder County, Colorado, provides an excellent example of community > preparation for Y2K. We present here their story, followed by the > guidelines developed by Boulder County Y2K Community Preparedness Group > (BCY2K), which include meeting agendas, a flyer, a speech, and forms you > may copy and fill out. Thanks to Kathy Garcia and BCY2K for sharing this > information with all of us. > > --The editors > > > > What Has Been Accomplished > in Boulder County > By Kathy Garcia, Margo King, and John Steiner > We kicked off our Y2K Community Preparedness campaign with a free > conference at the University of Colorado, Boulder Campus, from August 20 > through 23, 1998. The conference was cosponsored by the City of Boulder, > the University of Colorado, and the Cassandra Project. Present at the > conference were national experts on Y2K, including: Jim Lord, Roleigh > Martin, Doug Carmichael, Meg Wheatley, Paloma O'Riley, Cathy Moyer, > Steve Davis and Rabbi Zalman Schachter Shalomi. The conference was > attended by 700 people from across the United States. > > On Monday, August 24, 1998, we met for the first time with the Multiple > Agency Coordinating System (MACS), which is led by the Office of > Emergency Management for Boulder County. Boulder County consists of nine > cities/towns, each with its own municipal government. Each town has > representatives on MACS from fire and police departments, along with > representatives from Red Cross, planning department, risk management, > University of Colorado, school districts. We now have three citizen > members sitting on MACS who are working with the community to prepare > for Y2K or any other disaster that may strike. > > We have had educational Y2K meetings with the following groups: > > 1. Growers/farmers: asking for their assistance in encouraging > individual gardening, harvest, storage, collection of seeds, and > canning; and assisting farmers on how to get water to irrigate their > fields. > > 2. Religious community: asking for their assistance as possible shelters > in the neighborhoods where they are located and educating their > congregations. > > 3. Hispanic community leaders: working to get information to local > Spanish television and radio to educate the Hispanic community in the > Denver Metro area. > > 4. Hospitals: working with Boulder Community Hospital to set up a > conference to educate medical personnel on Y2K and its impact on > medications for patients (some HMOs only allow a 30-day supply), and > inform them on the readiness of the hospital. BCH was also asked to work > with two other large hospitals in Boulder County to share what they > learned about their bio-med equipment and software. > > 5. Human Service Agencies have been asked to educate their clients about > Y2K and help them hook up to neighborhood preparedness groups. > > 6. Youth from around the county are joining the efforts by becoming > Certified Emergency Response Team members to help in all disasters, as > well as assisting to weatherize the homes or trailers of elderly and > low-income families. > > Some wonderful things have happened here. > > 1. The City of Boulder has joined forces with our preparedness group by > advocating with the university for free office space; holding a joint > press conference to outline the "community plan" for 1999; allowing us > to use city stationery to convey information about Y2K meetings > throughout Boulder County, city FYI line to convey information about Y2K > meetings. > > 2. "How To" meetings have been held throughout the county. (See the > format description that follows.) > > 3. A town meeting was held on October 4 that included representatives > from Public Service (utilities), US West (telephone), City of Boulder, > Office of Emergency Management, The Cassandra Project, and Boulder > Community Hospital. The meeting was attended by more than 400 people who > applauded when Chief Stern of the OEM told people they needed to > individually prepare and then prepare their neighborhoods. Somehow folks > were waiting for permission to act. The biggest message sent by the > citizens was "I want the truth" not "everything will be okay" or "we are > handling it." Future town meetings will be held every other month. > > 4. A rhythm of meetings in each municipality is now in place, from > orientation (what is Y2K), to a neighborhood congress (how to conduct > meetings), to open meetings (task forces present information to > community on food preparedness, companies selling products, and so > forth), to community coordinator meetings (coordinators for each > municipality get together to fill each other in on what is going on, > support needed, and idea sharing). > > 5. We have coo
[CTRL] Fwd: y2k -- READ THIS!!!!!!!!
Subj: y2k Date: 99-01-05 18:42:50 EST From: JDPoeland To: J1mS1 Y2K and martial law http://www.worldnetdaily.com/bluesky_btl/19981208_xcbtl_y2k_and_ma.sht ml For those suspecting the federal government is making Y2K millennium bug contingency plans that include the suspension of civil liberties, fears were not allayed by the nation's Y2K czar at his first summit last week. In answer to a question about electrical-power failures caused by embedded chip problems and other millennium bug breakdowns, John Koskinen, the chairman of President Clinton's Y2K council, said: "In a crisis and emergency situation, the free market may not be the best way to distribute resources. ... If there's a point in time where we have to take resources and make a judgment on an emergency basis, we will be prepared to do that." Now what does that mean? These guys don't think the free market is the best way to distribute resources in the best of times. But this statement requires some explanation. This is a statement that should prompt congressional hearings -- out in public, not in executive session. This is a statement that brings to mind a history of executive orders mandating emergency presidential powers that would make our Founding Fathers spin in their graves. Yet, I saw the chilling statement reported only by Wired News, which covered the Y2K council's first summit in San Francisco last Thursday. Nothing in the Associated Press. Nothing in the San Francisco papers. Nothing on the major networks. Worse yet, even Wired News, which, thank heavens, saw fit to publish the quote, did not choose to lead its story coverage with it. Now, I can understand government seizing an opportunity for more power in a crisis. It's the nature of government to do just that. What I don't understand is how we could receive so many warnings by government officials of their ominous plans for martial law beginning Jan. 1, 2000 without scrutiny by the press, civil libertarians and other so-called government watchdogs. Why am I like a voice crying out in the wilderness over this issue? This is, by my count, at least the second major pronouncement by high-ranking members of the Clinton administration that preparations are being made to scrap the Constitution in the event of problems we know are coming on a date just over a year away. The first, to refresh your memories, came in June, when Sen. Robert Bennett, chairman of the Senate's Year 2000 committee, was interviewing a top Pentagon official, Deputy Defense Secretary John Hamre. Here's how that exchange went: Bennett: "In the event of a Y2K-induced breakdown of community services that might call for martial law," will the military be ready? Hamre: "We've got fundamental issues to deal with that go beyond just the Year 2000 contingency planning. And I think you're right to bring that up." Understand that Bennett, a Republican from Utah, wasn't suspiciously asking Hamre if the military was secretly planning a hideous martial law scenario. He was knowingly asking him, apparently hopeful that the military would be prepared to carry out it out. [[ This plan/response has been in place for a LONG time. Anyone who wants a copy of the Exec. Order, let me know. It SHOULD be read by everyone -- *VERY* CAREFULLY!!! ]] I know it's too much to ask, but shouldn't the members of the House Judiciary Committee at least have all this in the back of their minds today as they consider articles of impeachment against President Clinton? Is this a leader the nation can trust on the brink of a potential national crisis? Is this a man America can trust with emergency powers? Americans have come to believe their freedom is a permanent state. When people take their freedom for granted, it is most in peril. Is it not possible, with all we now know about the character of Bill Clinton, that he would attempt to turn such a crisis into a semi-permanent presidency -- one with imperial powers? And, with all we know about the character of the spineless Congress, is it unthinkable to imagine its members abdicating their authority and collaborating in such an insidious scheme? Am I being paranoid? I don't think so. After all, it's not me who is raising the ugly specter of martial law in the context of the Y2K crisis. It is the United States government -- first in a public meeting between representatives of the legislative and executive branches and now in a public summit convened by the president's Y2K czar. This is not a hallucination, folks. It's reality. Hearings are being conducted. Plans are being made. Further evidence of this plot comes in the form of Presidential Decision Directive 63, issued by Bill Clinton last May. It calls for the development of a plan to ensure "essential national security missions" as well as general public health and safety by, you guessed it, the year 2000. The carefully worded directive emphasizes the preservation of order, the d
