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Peace at any cost is a Prelude to War!

Russia's Navy Showing Signs of Strength - Perhaps Due to Help from U.S.
Secrets
14 June 2001
Analysis

The Russian navy recently began trials of a third-generation Akula II-class
nuclear-powered attack submarine, the Gepard, in the White Sea. Moscow has
also deployed a Delta III nuclear missile submarine in the Pacific Ocean.
Both vessels surprised Western intelligence.

Russia is signaling renewed will to emerge as an important naval power.
Successive Russian governments left the navy to rot in port. Now President
Vladimir Putin's government is directing scant resources into construction
and finds shipbuilding boosted by orders from abroad.

Russia's ship program also appears to be aided by an unwitting suspect: the
U.S. Navy. The Russian navy apparently has garnered significant technology
that will make future submarines quieter and harder to detect. This
technology appears to have come from espionage allegedly conducted by former
FBI agent Robert Hanssen, according to intelligence sources. The U.S. Navy
reportedly is investigating the extent to which its submarine program was
penetrated.

But Russia's navy still needs significant financial infusions in coming years
to take part in global naval competition.

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The attack submarine Gepard was estimated to be five years behind schedule
and was believed to be part of a body of evidence reflecting the Russian
fleet's poor state. The Gepard, however, represents an important departure
from recent shipbuilding trends.

In some respects, the new sub is believed to be superior to the U.S. Navy's
Los Angeles-class attack subs. Capable of moving as fast and as quietly, the
Gepard reportedly can dive deeper than the American vessels and has more
firepower.

Russia's government has moved to boost military funding, with a significant
portion going to the navy. But espionage may be helping the navy gain
advanced capabilities quickly and on the cheap. In the wake of Hanssen's
arrest, it appears Russian espionage may have compromised U.S. submarine
secrets.

Intelligence sources say the U.S. government is investigating how badly the
American program was compromised. The investigation may focus on possible
pilfering of quieting technologies.

Russia is developing new naval technologies for the first time in years.
Additionally, an increase in foreign orders is infusing much-needed dollars
into Russia's shipbuilding industry. For example on March 5, the Baltic Plant
Shipyard in St. Petersburg laid the keel for the first of three 4,000-ton
frigates for the Indian navy, which is also awaiting delivery of an aircraft
carrier.

Some shipbuilding companies also are making new investments in research and
development.

Meanwhile, Russia is finishing a new naval doctrine aimed at eliminating
supply and logistics problems and introducing more regular training, as well
as preserving the structures of the Northern, Pacific, Baltic and Black Sea
Fleets and the Caspian Sea flotilla.

The roadmap calls for building new flagships over the next five years and
total rearmament by 2020.

For now, the state of the Russian navy remains dismal; only 40 percent to 60
percent of personnel can fulfill their assignments due to aging and often
inoperable ships and equipment. But the Putin government is gambling that
with enough money and technology it can rebuild Russian sea power. If
Russia's navy fails, however, it will dwindle to fewer than 60 ships in a
little more than decade.




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