-Caveat Lector-

Tussle on for Masood's successor
http://www.thefridaytimes.com/news3a.htm

Imtiaz Gul reports from Kabul
The Friday Times
Pakistan's First Independent Weekly Paper

Paris (file photo):
French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine
greets Ahmed Shah Masoud
http://www.thefridaytimes.com/p3a.jpg

While mystery still shrouds the fate of the Northern Alliance's commander
Ahmed Shah Masoud, injured a few days ago in a bomb explosion, reports
indicate he will never be battle-worthy again even if he survives.

Russian and Pakistani sources in fact indicate Masoud might already have
expired. Itar-Tass, the Russian news agency reported Monday that Masoud had
expired. The Alliance sources, however, deny the report and say he is being
treated in a hospital in Tajikistan.

Whatever be the case, the search is on for his replacement. The
Jamiat-e-Islami chief and former Afghanistan president Burhanuddin Rabbani
is likely to retain his place as the spiritual head since he is considered
too soft to lead the troops in the battlefield. While some analysts point to
Wali Shah Masoud, Ahmed Shah's brother, as the likely successor, sources in
the Alliance told TFT that he is too "educated" for the job.

However, it seems the tussle is on among some of Masoud's generals. Insiders
say the tug of war might not only weaken the Alliance but may even split it
into many factions. The Alliance was never without internal differences but
Masoud had kept it together because of his charismatic personality.

The fighting had become difficult even for Masoud despite his resources.
When his troops lost big chunks of territory in the Takhar province a year
ago, he opted to retreat to Khawaja Bahauddin in the Badakhshan province
while using an obscure corner of Dushanbe, the capital of Tajikistan, for
his diplomatic overtures.

Over the past two years, Masoud had allowed former communist generals like
Asif Dilawar, Saleh Mohammad and Aman Brakzai to move into his closer
circle, with the notorious Dilawar being made the chief of the armed forces'
organisation committee. The Uzbek warlord Dostum, another former communist
general, has also been Masoud's close friend while Gulbuddin Hikmetyar, an
avowed enemy of Masoud since their university days, also joined up with him
after the Taliban took over Kabul in September 1996.

Many Afghans viewed Masoud's strategy as treason. "We spilled our blood to
get rid of the communists but this man has offered them lucrative positions
only because he wants to outdo the Taliban," a neutral Afghan based in
Tajikistan told TFT.

Most people know Masoud from his sobriquet the "Lion of Panjshir". His
detractors called him the Darling of the West. But the best appreciation of
his combative skill came from Alexander Rutzkoi, a veteran of the Soviet
troops that fought the Muslim guerillas for almost a decade. "He is a master
strategist," said Rutzkoi.

Masoud definitely knew the art of survival. And he survived some two decades
of war and continuing civil strife in a country torn by ethnic hatreds.
Early August, when the Taliban appeared set to finally overrun the Panjshir
Valley, his impregnable stronghold and birthplace in the Parwan province,
Masoud staged one of the most surprising comebacks. In a blitzkrieg
counter-offensive he retook almost all the areas he had lost to the Taliban,
including the Bagram airbase. Also, while the rise of the Taliban militia in
the mid-1990s gradually demolished the myths woven around most of the seven
leading Mujahideen commanders, including Gulbuddin Hekmetyar, Masoud until
now stood out as the best fighter among the old mujahideen leadership.

Sandy Gall, a British TV correspondent who met him several times, described
Masoud as "arguably the best and the shrewdest guerilla commander the Afghan
civil war has thrown up." A lean but charismatic figure, Masoud's life in
the past two decades had been marked by a string of battles against Afghan
communists, the Soviet army, the fellow mujahideen and now the Taliban.

Born to an ethnic Tajik family in 1948 in the Panjshir Valley, some 100
kilometres northeast of Kabul, and inspired by his father, a colonel in the
Afghan army, Masoud fancied a military career but had to study engineering
at the Kabul University at his father's insistence. He also dreamed of
becoming the overlord of Afghanistan and that is why never liked Pakistan's
support for Hikmetyar.

"Once he blatantly asked former foreign minister Sardar Assef why could a
Tajik not become the ruler of Afghanistan and that he needed Pakistan's
support to defeat Hikmetyar," a Pakistani diplomat told TFT in Peshawar. "I
will teach you a lesson," Masoud reportedly thundered in his meeting with
Sardar Assef in 1995.

Taking a clue from what has happened to Masoud, the Taliban on Wednesday
also banned visas for all intending journalists until next orders. "These
journalists could become guides for the Americans to target the Taliban
leaders or Osama bin Laden as well," said an Afghan diplomat in Islamabad
while explaining the ban.


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