-Caveat Lector- Wall Street Journal Headline: "Republicans need to keep courting Jewish and black voters." VDARE: Make that counting! (Not COURTING!) By Steve Sailer The battle to spin the ethnic vote continues, with many Republican commentators arguing that George W. Bush's resounding failure among their favorite minority constituencies only means that Republicans should redouble their efforts to appeal to that group in the next election. One of the most far-fetched was "Wall Street Journal" editorial page columnist Seth Lipsky's piece "No Majority Without Minorities: It won't be easy, but Republicans need to keep courting Jewish and black voters." The only plausible Republican strategy for attracting significant numbers of Jews or blacks is to nominate a Jew or a black for President. And the bounce from that would be short-lived, just as regional pride enabled Jimmy Carter to carry white Southerners in 1976, but not in 1980. An article by Ralph Z. Hallow in The Washington Times quoted a black Republican suggesting a more hard-headed tactic for the GOP: payoffs to black leaders. Former chairman of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights, William B. Allen advises targeting black politicians and ministers. "The time has come to recognize that the Republican Party has to co-opt -- I may even say to buy -- the black vote. … You make it too valuable for them to say no to you. … Everybody has something to offer, whether positions, whether money, you name it." While certainly a bracing alternative to Lipsky's woozy wishing, Allen's plan probably wouldn't work. Although the Democrats have been paying "walking-around" money to black ministers for decades, it is considered scandalous when the GOP tries to match the Democrats. Recall how political consultant Ed Rollins sank his career by boasting that he'd handed out walking-around money to New Jersey ministers to get Christine Todd Whitman elected. Further, Democrats can offer above-board policy payoffs to black leaders that Republicans just can't match, at least not without eliminating what little difference is left between the parties. Consider why the Bush Brothers didn't win easily in Florida: because Governor Jeb infuriated the black elite with his One Florida plan. When Ward Connerly, the black hero of California's anti-quota Proposition 209 campaign, came to Florida, Jeb thunk and thunk and finally came up with what he reckoned was the perfect plan to squelch Connerly. Jeb would eliminate overt racial preferences in state university admissions, but actually increase the number of black students by guaranteeing college admission to any kid finishing in the top 20% of his high school class. Since lots of poor blacks attend schools where even the valedictorian is hard pressed to score above the national average on the SAT, this would be a boon to black college admissions. Of course, what Jeb forgot was that black elites are not comprised of average blacks. Black leaders mostly send their kids to integrated schools, where their scions find it hard to rank in the top fifth. However, black leaders' kids tend to outscore the poor black kids on the SAT, so One Florida would tend to make affluent black kids worse off to the benefit of their poorer brethren. Enraged, black leaders ran a tremendous get out the vote campaign, driving the black share of the vote up from 10% in Florida in 1996 to 15% in 2000. And Florida's African Americans votes 93% to 7% against Jeb's brother Dubya. Now, Mr. Lipsky might suggest that all Jeb had to do was explain to poor black Floridians why his plan was better for them than their leaders' quota plan. Maybe … but let's be frank about the difficulties of getting a complex logical argument across to poor blacks. Consider this: The only reason Dubya is carrying Florida is because a sizable fraction of the black electorate there botched up their ballots. Although I implied in VDARE that the 26,000 ballots disqualified in Republican Duval County showed that Republicans could be as clueless as Democrats, I was wrong. In Duval's black precincts, 20% of the voters had their ballots disqualified for, well, for stupidity. The get-out-the-vote workers had told inexperienced black voters "to vote on every page." Since the ten Presidential candidates were spread across two pages, many voted for two men for President. [See the amusing New York Times account]. Similarly, The Palm Beach Post reported that the butterfly ballot baffled 16% of the voters in Palm Beach's black districts. In contrast to Allen's interesting but probably impractical idea, Donald J. Devine, a veteran Republican campaign staffer suggested in The Washington Times article that the GOP not waste party resources on blacks other than carefully selected intellectuals. "Black intellectuals, on our side at least, have made the black intellectuals on the other side listen to our arguments on school vouchers and other issues." Recall the old joke: Q. What do you call a black man at a Heritage Foundation conference? A. Keynote Speaker. Steve Sailer is president of the Human Biodiversity Institute and Adjunct Fellow of the Hudson Institute. Tomorrow: Part II - why black foreign policy strategists are good for the GOP and America; and the way out of the Republican ethnic dilemma. http://www.vdare.com/Sailer_jew_black_votes.htm Blacks, Jews and the GOP: Part II - Empowered (sensible) black foreign policy wonks? Dispossessed Jews? By Steve Sailer The problem with Republican "diversity outreach" is that the GOP ends up being held hostage by its handful of minority celebrities. It can't campaign vigorously against racial quotas, for instance, for fear that Colin Powell or Congressman J.C. Watts would object. Still, on the whole, the Reagan foreign policy team's recruitment and mentoring of Powell and Condoleeza Rice has paid dividends. Even more important than the PR advantages is that Powell and Rice would more likely implement a calm and patriotic foreign policy based on the national interest than would the usual suspects from the think tanks. In the Nineties, neoconservative and neoliberal views on overseas interventions have grown increasingly hysterical under the influence of that noted international relations expert Steven Spielberg. In the minds of white baby-boomer wonks and intellectuals, Schindler's List locked in the assumption that the Holocaust is the end-all and be-all of history. Then, Saving Private Ryan left them feeling terribly inferior to their fathers of the "The Greatest Generation." Thus, America's otherwise inexplicable aggression against the sovereign state of Yugoslavia in 1999. That misadventure can best be understood as a deeply personal psychodrama staged by the Clinton Administration's foreign policy apparatus. I'm sure all the bombing, killing, and ethnic cleansing made Madeleine Albright, James Rubin, and Co. feel a whole lot better about themselves, even as it made a hash of the Balkans. In contrast, African Americans, even those as cosmopolitan as Powell and Rice, tend not to care that much about other countries, deep down inside. They especially don't obsess over re-fighting the events of 1933-1945, in the way that Albright is preoccupied with the Munich Conference of 1938 and her father's years as Czech ambassador to Belgrade. To blacks, the epic of Africans in America is far more compelling. To a black patriot like Powell, foreign policy is a necessary job, not an opportunity to right the wrongs of the rest of the world. The really interesting questions about blacks and Jews are ones that would probably horrify Lipsky: Could the immigration reform movement find a charismatic black leader, just as the anti-quota Proposition 209 succeeded because of Ward Connerly's leadership? And will Jews ever wake up to realize that mass immigration will leave them a mere fraction of the Arab-American and Muslim-American populations, thus endangering American support for Israel? While most 20th century black leaders supported large-scale immigration, two of the most impressive - labor leader A. Phillip Randolph and Congresswoman Barbara Jordan - fought against it because it damages working class African Americans, even as it helps black civil rights hustlers. This kind of independent-minded black leader is likely to be found in unconventional fields like sports or the military. Granted, he may well favor affirmative action. But perhaps a reasonable compromise could be worked out restricting its application to native-born Americans. Republicans are constantly advised to pander to immigrant groups since they are growing so quickly in number. But this also implies that political parties should act more brusquely toward ethnic groups that are in relative demographic decline. The racial group that is most inexorably fading into numerical insignificance: Jewish Americans. Between low birth rates, delayed pregnancies, and intermarriage with Gentiles, the fraction of the population that considers itself Jewish is headed toward near negligibility. The American Jewish Committee estimates that American Jews will decline by 1/3rd by 2080. That seems overly optimistic on the part of the AJC. If intermarriage continues to increase, the fall-off is likely to be greater. Immigration will drive the total population up to, say, 500 million by that point, leaving Jews as less than 1% of the population. (And a much larger fraction of the remaining Jews will be the highly fertile ultra-Orthodox.) By then, if current immigration policies remain in place, Arab and Muslim Americans will together probably outnumber Jewish Americans by five or even ten to one. Perhaps the Jewish establishment will eventually wake up to the threat that immigration poses to their influence? [Steve Sailer is president of the Human Biodiversity Institute and Adjunct Fellow of the Hudson Institute.] December 10, 2000 http://www.vdare.com/Sailer_jew_black_votes_p2.htm <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. Proselytizing propagandic screeds are unwelcomed. Substance—not soap-boxing—please! These are sordid matters and 'conspiracy theory'—with its many half-truths, mis- directions and outright frauds—is used politically by different groups with major and minor effects spread throughout the spectrum of time and thought. 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