Re: Things are looking better all the time [TERROR ALERT: Cerenkov Blue]

2003-04-01 Thread John Kelsey
At 09:36 AM 3/27/03 -0800, Tim May wrote:
On Thursday, March 27, 2003, at 08:41  AM, John Kelsey wrote:
...
However, it seems to me it would be very hard for this news not to leak 
out. If, say, a nuke or serious bioterror weapon had been found in a major 
city, a lot of agencies would have had knowledge of it. It seems to me 
that at least one person would have said something, leaked it to the 
press, etc., for any of the usual reasons.
True.  I think it would depend on how it was dealt with.  My wife used to 
work for a state environmental regulatory agency, and when their lab truck 
showed up someplace to collect samples, it always drew a lot of 
attention.  Obviously, if the NEST people show up at some apartment 
building in Manhattan wearing moon suits, or if dozens of firemen and 
policemen are involved, it's going to be hard to keep it from slipping out 
that something interesting has happened.  But if it were handled quietly, a 
single incident like this might not make the news.  And if the "incident" 
was a terrorist nuke that turned out not to go off, the only evidence might 
be a soon-discounted warning call to a couple of major newspapers.

--John Kelsey, [EMAIL PROTECTED]



Re: Things are looking better all the time [TERROR ALERT: Cerenkov Blue]

2003-04-01 Thread Neil Johnson
On Tuesday 01 April 2003 08:50 pm, Neil Johnson wrote:

> When I went to work for the University I graduated from. I discovered all
> sorts of interesting things and even more when my sister enrolled.
>
.
.
.

Duh ! I forgot the point was that, if things are properly handled, it's not 
that hard to keep things quiet for a long time.


-- 
Neil Johnson
http://www.njohnsn.com
PGP key available on request.



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-29 Thread John Kelsey
At 02:06 AM 3/28/03 -0800, Sarad AV wrote:
hi,

That cannot possibly even happen-by mistake.Al-jazeera
is qatar based.They might hit a chinese embassy but
not AL-Jazeera.
I believe we hit the Al Jazeera office in Afghanistan pretty early in our 
bombing campaign there.  (I read an archived BBC story about it when I was 
looking for the al-jazeera in english website.)  This is a bit of a 
pattern; we hit television stations in Kosovo and Serbia during our 
campaign there, as well. So we're unlikely to bomb their main office, but 
hostile media offices (and the embassies of countries that p*ss us off) do 
seem to come to a bad end when they're in bombing zones.

1500 turkish troops moved into north iraq-US cannot
immediately do any thing about it since flying over
Turkish air space is important for them.
The tragedy for the Kurds is that they're just not important enough to get 
the kind of backing they'd need to establish their own state, given the 
large set of countries that this would offend.  So, once again, I expect 
that we'll leave them hanging when they're done being useful.  This is 
lousy, though not any different than most countries' management of foreign 
affairs.  What was that famous quote from Austria-Hungary?  Something like 
"We will astonish the world with our ingratitude."

...
Sarath.
--John Kelsey, [EMAIL PROTECTED]




Re: Things are looking better all the time [TERROR ALERT: Cerenkov Blue]

2003-03-28 Thread Ken Brown
John Kelsey wrote:
 
> I wasn't thinking of Al Qaida.  There are a *lot* of people who might like
> to have a last-ditch deterrent against a US invasion or other action.


I can think of a few workable deterrents against US invasion:

- ICBMS
- an army with a reputation of fighting nastily when attacked
- a serious US-based political lobby friendly to the country 

Russian, China, and Britain have all three. France has one and two
halves these days.

The logic is that Israel should join the permanent membership of the
Security Council - and India is a candidate as well.

That's all the permanent members are really, a gang of countries who
agreed not to fight each other because they had the nukes, so had to be
sure to tell the others when they were going to pick on third-party
country in case two of them picked on the same victim and ended up
fighting each other by accident. The Security Council was nothing to do
with the rule of international law (bye-bye
Richard-Might-is-Right-Perle, I hope the rest of the warmongers take the
pension-reducing plunge soon)  and everything to do with the logic of
MAD and carving up the world into spheres on influence. 

(And North Korea is in the Chinese sphere of influence, which is why the
US leaves policing their nukes up to China.)



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-28 Thread Sarad AV
hi,

That cannot possibly even happen-by mistake.Al-jazeera
is qatar based.They might hit a chinese embassy but
not AL-Jazeera.

1500 turkish troops moved into north iraq-US cannot
immediately do any thing about it since flying over
Turkish air space is important for them.

Sarath.

(Before Al Jazeera is
> accidentally bombed off the
> air.)
> 


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Re: Things are looking better all the time [TERROR ALERT: Cerenkov Blue]

2003-03-27 Thread Tim May
On Thursday, March 27, 2003, at 08:41  AM, John Kelsey wrote:

At 08:28 AM 3/26/03 -0800, Major Variola (ret) wrote:
At 06:12 PM 3/25/03 -0500, John Kelsey wrote:
...
>Maybe the FBI caught them and disarmed the
>bombs before they went off.
And they didn't claim any credit?  This doesn't jibe with the puffery
one observes.
Well, there's puffery, and then there's trying to avoid panic.  Though 
I'll agree this looks less plausible after the "all Americans should 
have duct tape and plastic to wrap their houses" announcements.  But 
I'm trying to imagine the fallout (sorry) from announcing on CNN that 
they'd just found and disarmed a nuke that had been hidden in an 
apartment building in Manhattan. ("Officials said the bomb, which had 
approximately the same destructive power as the one used at Hiroshima, 
would have killed more than a million people if set off.  In related 
news, the 200-mile-long traffic jam caused by refugees flooding out of 
the city continued today, and the NYSE announced that they would be 
moving operations to an undisclosed location in New Jersey for the 
forseeable future.")
This is a very good analysis. I had not considered that some WMDs might 
have been discovered and dealt with, but then not publicized for the 
reasons you describe.

However, it seems to me it would be very hard for this news not to leak 
out. If, say, a nuke or serious bioterror weapon had been found in a 
major city, a lot of agencies would have had knowledge of it. It seems 
to me that at least one person would have said something, leaked it to 
the press, etc., for any of the usual reasons.

Such a thing could probably be kept secret for a few days, but not for 
months, it seems to me.

Still, in this Orwellian era where the invasion of Iraq is called 
"Operation Iraqi Freedom," where the fact that the U.N. and most 
countries oppose this invasion results in "the Coalition of the 
Willing," and where other doublespeak is rampant, I suppose the 
authorities will do what they can to not scare the sheeple.

Rumsfield is "promising" that the reasons for the invasion--Iraq's 
banned weapons--will still be found. So far, they haven't been, not in 
any of the regions yet invaded, and with no signs of them being 
used...the rockets launched at COW and COWait have been Al-Fatah 
missile, which were not banned. I don't doubt that there are probably 
some undestroyed missiles or even some chemical agents somewhere in a 
country as large as Iraq...bookkeeping errors alone would probably 
guarantee this. But it is so far looking like the U.S. will have some 
serious explaining to do if stockpiles of banned weapons are not found. 
The DOD and CIA are probably creating them right now.

--Tim May, Occupied America
"They that give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary 
safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." -- Benjamin Franklin, 1759.



RE: Things are looking better all the time [TERROR ALERT: Cerenkov Blue]

2003-03-27 Thread John Kelsey
At 08:28 AM 3/26/03 -0800, Major Variola (ret) wrote:
At 06:12 PM 3/25/03 -0500, John Kelsey wrote:
...
>Maybe the FBI caught them and disarmed the
>bombs before they went off.
And they didn't claim any credit?  This doesn't jibe with the puffery
one observes.
Well, there's puffery, and then there's trying to avoid panic.  Though I'll 
agree this looks less plausible after the "all Americans should have duct 
tape and plastic to wrap their houses" announcements.  But I'm trying to 
imagine the fallout (sorry) from announcing on CNN that they'd just found 
and disarmed a nuke that had been hidden in an apartment building in 
Manhattan. ("Officials said the bomb, which had approximately the same 
destructive power as the one used at Hiroshima, would have killed more than 
a million people if set off.  In related news, the 200-mile-long traffic 
jam caused by refugees flooding out of the city continued today, and the 
NYSE announced that they would be moving operations to an undisclosed 
location in New Jersey for the forseeable future.")

>And for a third alternative, it's quite possible (I don't know how
>likely) that one or more groups have smuggled nukes into the US, planted 
them
>in US cities, and offered proof to the US government, as a way of
>establishing a nuclear deterrent.  (C.f. Ross Anderson's "Guy Fawkes 
Protocol.")
But they've *already* declared their goals in numerous fatwas by now,
what do you want, a UN resolution?
I wasn't thinking of Al Qaida.  There are a *lot* of people who might like 
to have a last-ditch deterrent against a US invasion or other action.
...
Again, the operational risks with extortion, traced communications, the
faith-based motivations and psyop saavy of Al Q indicate Use It or Lose
It.
Probably true for Al Qaida, but not necessarily for everyone.

--John Kelsey, [EMAIL PROTECTED]



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-27 Thread Major Variola (ret)
At 09:09 PM 3/26/03 -0600, Neil Johnson wrote:
>In a news conference on Tuesday, some general claimed they had located
and
>"taken out" six sites where GPS jammers were being used.
>
>He claimed one site had been taken out with a GPS guided weapon.
>
>"Kind of Ironic" I beleive he said.

Well, the satellites were *above* and the jammers *below* so its
not that tricky.  There's descriptions of the Mk-3 Tomahawk's
antijamming ability out there.

The proper use of a GPS jammer is *not* CW when you're fighting
the US.  The proper use is to switch them on when a spotter
lets you know about incoming.  Preferably you are in a nonbombable
area (mosque, hospital, etc) when you switch on, and you promptly move
after
the incoming goes off.  The goal being to increase bad PR, ie collateral
damage
aka civvy corpses.  (Before Al Jazeera is accidentally bombed off the
air.)



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-26 Thread Ken Brown
Bill Stewart wrote:
> 
> At 04:14 PM 03/26/2003 +1200, Peter Gutmann wrote:
> >The RAF used an EFP in 1989 to assassinate the chairman of Deutsche Bank
> 
> I assume that's some Italian or German group's acronym
> and not Britain's Royal Air Force?  :-)
> (Besides, I thought assassinations were usually an SAS
> (Special Air Service, not Scandinavian Airlines) thing...)

Red Army Fraction (As Germans I suppose it would be something like Rote
Armee Fraktion?)

Most people called them "faction" in English but they preferred
"fraction" as it was meant  to imply that they were only a small part of
a vast army of workers et.c   They weren't, of course.  

Bloody heck, they even have a web site: http://www.rafinfo.de/

More often called "Baader Meinhof Gang" presumably because Ulrike
Meinbhof looked sexier than most terrorists.

And yes, http://www.baader-meinhof.com/ exists - though it seems to be a
fan site.  So now we have assasination groupies.



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-26 Thread Sarad AV
hi,

They are not working very well or US since the iraqi's
are using gps jammers and US are already in a row with
russians claiming that they sold it to iraq.

Regards Sarath.

--- Tim May <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> On Tuesday, March 25, 2003, at 03:30  AM, Ken Brown
> wrote:
> 
> > Declan McCullagh wrote:
> >
> >>> Or perhaps we'll see someone take a
> GPS-controlled small plane, which
> >>> can carry 1,000 lbs, and turn it into a flying
> bomb or delivery 
> >>> system
> >>> for something quite noxious. These planes can be
> rented by the hour 
> >>> at
> >>> hundreds of small to medium sized airports
> around the U.S. Though I
> >>> don't know if the autopilot is configurable
> enough to let an attacker
> >>> program it to head to a certain altitude at a
> certain location and
> >>> then bail out via parachute.
> >
> > Another novel that came out with the idea - and
> the first one to
> > explicitly mention GPS AFAIR - was "The Moon
> Goddess and the Son" by
> > Donald Kingsbury from 1987 (incorporating parts
> from stories in Analog
> > back in the 1970s)  which has an Afghan refugee
> studying aero
> > engineering  in the US and setting up light planes
> to autopilot an
> > attack on the Kremlin.  (To be honest when I first
> heard the news about
> > 9/11 that's what I thought might have happened - 
> until I saw a TV
> > screen I didn't realise they were passenger
> planes)
> 
> And of course it was in 1987 that the German
> teenager Matthias Rust 
> flew a Cessna over the border into the USSR and
> buzzed Red Square, so 
> it's not clear who had the idea first.
> 
> (I remember the name but not the year, so I used
> Google to find it.)
> 
> The general idea of using "asymmetric warfare," via
> RC planes, bombs, 
> etc., is really not very new. Torching an enemy's
> village in the middle 
> of the night is a time-honored form of asymmetric
> warfare, though the 
> War Lawyers have been trying to force armies to wear
> Official Uniforms 
> and march in Official Patterns.
> 
> 
> --Tim May
> "That the said Constitution shall never be construed
> to authorize 
> Congress to infringe the just liberty of the press
> or the rights of 
> conscience; or to prevent the people of the United
> States who are 
> peaceable citizens from keeping their own arms."
> --Samuel Adams
> 


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Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-25 Thread Bill Stewart
At 04:14 PM 03/26/2003 +1200, Peter Gutmann wrote:
The RAF used an EFP in 1989 to assassinate the chairman of Deutsche Bank
I assume that's some Italian or German group's acronym
and not Britain's Royal Air Force?  :-)
(Besides, I thought assassinations were usually an SAS
(Special Air Service, not Scandinavian Airlines) thing...)


Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-25 Thread Peter Gutmann
Bill Stewart <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:
>At 04:14 PM 03/26/2003 +1200, Peter Gutmann wrote:
>>The RAF used an EFP in 1989 to assassinate the chairman of Deutsche Bank
>
>I assume that's some Italian or German group's acronym and not Britain's
>Royal Air Force?  :-)

Red Army Faction, a German terrorist group active mostly in the 1970s, now
disbanded.

Peter.



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-25 Thread Tim May
On Tuesday, March 25, 2003, at 09:22 PM, Bill Stewart wrote:

At 04:14 PM 03/26/2003 +1200, Peter Gutmann wrote:
The RAF used an EFP in 1989 to assassinate the chairman of Deutsche 
Bank
I assume that's some Italian or German group's acronym
and not Britain's Royal Air Force?  :-)
(Besides, I thought assassinations were usually an SAS
(Special Air Service, not Scandinavian Airlines) thing...)


Red Army Faction.

--Tim May



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-25 Thread Peter Gutmann
Steve Schear <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> writes:

>I seem to recall that with sufficient knowledge and commonly available
>detonators shaped explosive charges can be configured to hurl heavy
>explosive payloads, much like a mortar, with fair accuracy, great distance
>or very high velocity.  I can't seem to find the reference on-line but I
>vaguely recall that a 50kg payload could be accelerated to multi-mach
>speeds with a device that could be placed in a car trunk.  A poor man's
>howitzer.

It sounds like you're talking about explosively formed projectiles (EFPs),
which are a means of creating high-velocity (several km/s) light projectiles,
chiefly useful for armour penetration.  Because of the way it works, it can't
"hurl heavy explosive payloads" (neither heavy, not explosive).  It's been
around for awhile, but the first technology demonstrators didn't surface until
the 1980s (Germany and France), and it's only starting to be adopted now (very
tricky technology to get right).  The RAF used an EFP in 1989 to assassinate
the chairman of Deutsche Bank (it's typically reported as being "a car bomb",
but was actually done by parking a pushbike with a small bag on the back next
to the road where the car was to pass.  The projectile punched through the
side of his armoured limo and killed him, but left everyone else alive.  This
is one of those feats which, if you had asked experts in 1989, would have told
you was impossible to do).

Peter.



RE: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-25 Thread John Kelsey
At 04:37 AM 3/25/03 +0100, Lucky Green wrote:
...
If any terrorists had nukes, why have they not used them so far?
Suppose you only have one, it was really hard to get, and you're not sure 
how much of your US network has been turned, or at least placed under heavy 
surveilance?  Maybe you wait until you are really sure you can succeed 
before you use it.

Alternatively, we have no way of knowing how often terrorists have tried to 
use nukes, but been stopped one way or another.  Maybe the Russians sold 
them very convincing duds.  Maybe the FBI caught them and disarmed the 
bombs before they went off.

And for a third alternative, it's quite possible (I don't know how likely) 
that one or more groups have smuggled nukes into the US, planted them in US 
cities, and offered proof to the US government, as a way of establishing a 
nuclear deterrent.  (C.f. Ross Anderson's "Guy Fawkes Protocol.")

There are pretty obvious reasons why the US government might not announce 
either of the last two cases, and why the terrorist group of your choice 
wouldn't announce "we have a bomb" until they had the thing planted where 
they wanted it.

--Lucky
--John Kelsey, [EMAIL PROTECTED]



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-25 Thread Tim May
On Tuesday, March 25, 2003, at 03:30  AM, Ken Brown wrote:

Declan McCullagh wrote:

Or perhaps we'll see someone take a GPS-controlled small plane, which
can carry 1,000 lbs, and turn it into a flying bomb or delivery 
system
for something quite noxious. These planes can be rented by the hour 
at
hundreds of small to medium sized airports around the U.S. Though I
don't know if the autopilot is configurable enough to let an attacker
program it to head to a certain altitude at a certain location and
then bail out via parachute.
Another novel that came out with the idea - and the first one to
explicitly mention GPS AFAIR - was "The Moon Goddess and the Son" by
Donald Kingsbury from 1987 (incorporating parts from stories in Analog
back in the 1970s)  which has an Afghan refugee studying aero
engineering  in the US and setting up light planes to autopilot an
attack on the Kremlin.  (To be honest when I first heard the news about
9/11 that's what I thought might have happened -  until I saw a TV
screen I didn't realise they were passenger planes)
And of course it was in 1987 that the German teenager Matthias Rust 
flew a Cessna over the border into the USSR and buzzed Red Square, so 
it's not clear who had the idea first.

(I remember the name but not the year, so I used Google to find it.)

The general idea of using "asymmetric warfare," via RC planes, bombs, 
etc., is really not very new. Torching an enemy's village in the middle 
of the night is a time-honored form of asymmetric warfare, though the 
War Lawyers have been trying to force armies to wear Official Uniforms 
and march in Official Patterns.

--Tim May
"That the said Constitution shall never be construed to authorize 
Congress to infringe the just liberty of the press or the rights of 
conscience; or to prevent the people of the United States who are 
peaceable citizens from keeping their own arms." --Samuel Adams



RE: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-25 Thread Sarad AV
hi,

for every bomb that explodes in U.S,civil liberties
will keep comming down.This is not the case in other
countries were more bombs are hurled or exploded
daily.Though they are less concerned about their
citizens,they are concerned of their civil
liberties(atleast to some extent).

Regards Sarath.

--- Bill Stewart <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> At 04:37 AM 03/25/2003 +0100, Lucky Green wrote:
But no, it's back
> to the same old same old,
> and so much for civil liberties in America as well.
> 


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RE: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-25 Thread Bill Stewart
At 04:37 AM 03/25/2003 +0100, Lucky Green wrote:
If any terrorists had nukes, why have they not used them so far?
Because they've been able to achieve "Shock and Awe" without them
and keep most of the rabble in line by threatening to blow up
other nuclear-armed terrorists in mutually assured destruction.
Oh, wait, those weren't the terrorists you were talking about
One of the things that really frustrated me about 9/11 was that
after 45 years of nuclear terrorism and cold war,
we'd had close to a decade without anybody threatening to
destroy the world, except for occasional small patches of it
just to remind everybody to pay their military-industrial-complex dues,
and we'd had this nice economic boom (though it was obviously winding down),
and while the Bush League was trying to do everything they wanted,
even so, things were starting to look like maybe our species could act
somewhat civilized for a while.  But no, it's back to the same old same old,
and so much for civil liberties in America as well.


Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-25 Thread Ken Brown
Declan McCullagh wrote:

> >Or perhaps we'll see someone take a GPS-controlled small plane, which
> >can carry 1,000 lbs, and turn it into a flying bomb or delivery system
> >for something quite noxious. These planes can be rented by the hour at
> >hundreds of small to medium sized airports around the U.S. Though I
> >don't know if the autopilot is configurable enough to let an attacker
> >program it to head to a certain altitude at a certain location and
> >then bail out via parachute.

Another novel that came out with the idea - and the first one to
explicitly mention GPS AFAIR - was "The Moon Goddess and the Son" by
Donald Kingsbury from 1987 (incorporating parts from stories in Analog
back in the 1970s)  which has an Afghan refugee studying aero
engineering  in the US and setting up light planes to autopilot an
attack on the Kremlin.  (To be honest when I first heard the news about
9/11 that's what I thought might have happened -  until I saw a TV
screen I didn't realise they were passenger planes)

A good book which got less attention than it deserved. Contains a
brilliant idea for what should have been done in LEO after Mir.  I
suppose it has been eclipsed in the memory of sf fans both by  really
happened to the Soviet Union and perhaps also by Mary Jane Engh's
"Arslan" (AKA "The Wind from Bukhara") which overlaps in subject matter
a little.  

"Rumsfeld, Blix Barada Nikto!"



RE: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-25 Thread Eugen Leitl
On Tue, 25 Mar 2003, Lucky Green wrote:

> If any terrorists had nukes, why have they not used them so far?

I don't think they have nukes. Not yet. But now they're seeing plenty of
reasons to get them. We're lucky they're poor, low-tech people in general.



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-24 Thread James A. Donald
--
On 24 Mar 2003 at 22:05, Declan McCullagh wrote:
> I fear that's right. We have substantially increased our
> number of enemies capable of causing us serious damage (and
> have the requiste means, motive, and opportunity)

Observe the marked decline in terrorist acts.  Recollect that
9/11 was the second attempt to bring down the two towers and
one of many large scale terrorist acts directed at Americans. 
Since Afghanistan, there have been no comparable attempts.  The
Australians got a bit of terror for their actions in East
Timor, whereupon they threatened the Indonesians that if they
did not clean up Indonesia, the Australians would do it for
them.  Since then, they have had no further significant
problems either.

All of the terrorists, and most of the protestors, think that
if one do not kill innocents, it is a sign of weakness, and
they strike at weakness. 

--digsig
 James A. Donald
 6YeGpsZR+nOTh/cGwvITnSR3TdzclVpR0+pr3YYQdkG
 SKftD3iO5jEjgK/DD7/KHtmYPRg6AxRM6VoCCMVd
 4EwomPyztP4ywyl/PXmpq8ssvNutxjj3lMHHPmEb2



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-24 Thread Steve Schear
At 12:03 AM 3/25/2003 -0500, Declan McCullagh wrote:
Someone else pointed out that this has been discussed in a novel
(wasn't aware). I hardly mean to say my prediction is unique. It's
just one response to the question that the counterterrorism folks must
ask themselves all the time: How to delivery a deadly payload of
sufficient size to a target that's primarily defended against car bombs?
I seem to recall that with sufficient knowledge and commonly available 
detonators shaped explosive charges can be configured to hurl heavy 
explosive payloads, much like a mortar, with fair accuracy, great distance 
or very high velocity.  I can't seem to find the reference on-line but I 
vaguely recall that a 50kg payload could be accelerated to multi-mach 
speeds with a device that could be placed in a car trunk.  A poor man's 
howitzer.

steve

"War is just a racket ... something that is not what it seems to the 
majority of people. Only a small group knows what its about. It is 
conducted for the benefit of the very few at the expense of the 
masses."  --- Major General Smedley Butler, 1933



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-24 Thread Declan McCullagh
On Mon, Mar 24, 2003 at 07:28:41PM -0800, Bill Frantz wrote:
> The simplest autopilots just keep the wings level.  Almost equally common
> are ones that can follow a radio location signal (VHF Onmi-Range (VOR)
> usually).  Altitude hold is less common, as are autopilots that can follow
> an Instrument Landing System (ILS) in both azimuth and elevation.

Just got a private off-list note -- or at least that's what it seems
to be, since the list wasn't copied and it hasn't shown up here. It
made two points:

* High end aircraft avionics can be programmed to fly an entire flight
from GPS waypoint to GPS waypoint at arbitrary altitudes for each leg.

* Fancy interfaces could allow someone to enter data into the
autopilot via a radio link (possibly cell phone or wide area pager)
for updates on the fly.

The defenses against this would seem to be primarily radar and air
traffic control. I can't see them being very effective if the target
is a civilian government complex or non-governmental building in
America's heartland, where general aviation is commonplace and
airports would probably be in the close vicinity.

As for something like Washington, DC? Well, security measures at
College Park airport (inside the Beltway to the northeast) are strict.
I couldn't quickly find a map on faa.gov, but I'd guess there are
other general aviation airports within 20 miles of attractive targets
in the heart of DC, much less if you count suburban ones like Langley
or Fort George.

If you assume that a plane can fly 200 mph, and the distance to travel
is 20 miles, that's not much time for a military response. This is a
different question from whether a 1,000 lb payload would be
sufficiently dangerous as to cause a catastrophe, of course.

Someone else pointed out that this has been discussed in a novel
(wasn't aware). I hardly mean to say my prediction is unique. It's
just one response to the question that the counterterrorism folks must
ask themselves all the time: How to delivery a deadly payload of
sufficient size to a target that's primarily defended against car bombs?

Yet another reason to move out of DC.

-Declan



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-24 Thread Anonymous
Declan McCullagh <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> 
> Or perhaps we'll see someone take a GPS-controlled small plane, which
> can carry 1,000 lbs, and turn it into a flying bomb or delivery system
> for something quite noxious. These planes can be rented by the hour at
> hundreds of small to medium sized airports around the U.S. Though I
> don't know if the autopilot is configurable enough to let an attacker
> program it to head to a certain altitude at a certain location and
> then bail out via parachute.


Or for that matter, it would be extremely easy to outfit a model RC control
unit with bigger servos to fly a real plane. And small planes are quite easy to
steal as well. 



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-24 Thread Tim May
On Monday, March 24, 2003, at 08:11  PM, Bill O'Hanlon wrote:
Both of these ideas get used in Martin Caidin's book "Deathmate"...

(If you're old enough, you might remember the "Six Million Dollar Man"
TV series.  Caidin was the author of the book that was used for that
series.)
It's a bit old, but Deathmate is quite violent and somewhat topical.  
It's
sure to please some folks on this list.
Yep, I'm old enough to have read the novel, circa 1969-71, except that 
it was called "Cyborg." I know I read it a few years before the TV 
series, which I only saw a few episodes of (I was in college, and TV 
was not common for student back then).

Joe Poyer was another military/thriller writer of the era. I've been 
seeing novels by another Poyer lately...I've been assuming it's his son.

Walter Wager was another good novelist of the era.

Amazon will have details on all of them.

--Tim May
"A democracy cannot exist as a permanent form of government. It can 
only exist until the voters discover that they can vote themselves 
money from the Public Treasury. From that moment on, the majority 
always votes for the candidate promising the most benefits from the 
Public Treasury with the result that a democracy always collapses over 
loose fiscal policy always followed by dictatorship." --Alexander 
Fraser Tyler



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-24 Thread Bill O'Hanlon
On Mon, Mar 24, 2003 at 10:05:24PM -0500, Declan McCullagh wrote:
> 
> I'm still
> predicting radio-controlled helicopters (or RC planes, which could carry
> a far greater load).
> 
> Or perhaps we'll see someone take a GPS-controlled small plane, which
> can carry 1,000 lbs, and turn it into a flying bomb or delivery system
> for something quite noxious. These planes can be rented by the hour at
> hundreds of small to medium sized airports around the U.S. Though I
> don't know if the autopilot is configurable enough to let an attacker
> program it to head to a certain altitude at a certain location and
> then bail out via parachute.


Both of these ideas get used in Martin Caidin's book "Deathmate"...

(If you're old enough, you might remember the "Six Million Dollar Man"
TV series.  Caidin was the author of the book that was used for that
series.)

It's a bit old, but Deathmate is quite violent and somewhat topical.  It's
sure to please some folks on this list.

-Bill



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-24 Thread Tim May
On Monday, March 24, 2003, at 07:28  PM, Bill Frantz wrote:

At 7:05 PM -0800 3/24/03, Declan McCullagh wrote:
Or perhaps we'll see someone take a GPS-controlled small plane, which
can carry 1,000 lbs, and turn it into a flying bomb or delivery system
for something quite noxious. These planes can be rented by the hour at
hundreds of small to medium sized airports around the U.S. Though I
don't know if the autopilot is configurable enough to let an attacker
program it to head to a certain altitude at a certain location and
then bail out via parachute.
The simplest autopilots just keep the wings level.  Almost equally 
common
are ones that can follow a radio location signal (VHF Onmi-Range (VOR)
usually).  Altitude hold is less common, as are autopilots that can 
follow
an Instrument Landing System (ILS) in both azimuth and elevation.

In theory, one could set up an attack where the plane follows a VOR to 
the
target.  If the payload is chemical or biological, dispersing it at
altitude might be what is wanted.  Otherwise additional equipment will 
be
needed to crash the plane into the ground.
I remember hearing that airliners will eventually be equipped with 
autopilots able to land the planes, with perhaps some assistance from 
ground controllers. If memory serves, a 767 pilot claimed during a 
television interview just after 911 that the autopilot on the 767 (and 
being retrofitted to 747 and 757 planes) is precise enough to actually 
land the plane at an airport like JFK.

To check what's available for small planes, I just risked having 
GoogleNarc report me to the Thought Police and did a search on 
"autopilot cessna." It appears that the autopilots available today are 
capable of doing altitude changes, though not dives into the ground 
(not suprisingly). This would make it possible for a Cessna owner to 
bail out at a safe altitude and then have the plane drop in altitude 
and fly into buildings or a sports stadium.

(With obvious variations: detonating a large nail bomb at 300 feet, 
using a GPS system to trigger the release of a 400-pound jet fuel bomb 
with impact detonator, and so on.)

I'm glad I don't travel much, and not by air for nearly 3 years (with 
no plans short of a major family emergency to get me in the air). I 
don't think most of the world cares for our Pax Americana brand of 
invading and occupying and seizing oilfields, all based on crudely 
forged CIA documents and splutterings from the inept Colin Powell about 
how we have to invade Iraq in order to save Iraqis.

And I don't think the world is a very safe place. Sure, the chance of 
being caught in a nail bomb attack or a sarin release is less than the 
chance of having the Reich Security Forces do a "stop and frisk" and 
find some banned literature in luggagewhich is exactly why I don't 
travel.

A lot of other people are also choosing to stay closer to home, too.

And this is why Mrs. Tom Daschle wants a massive bailout of her airline 
clients. As Benito Mussolini said, "fascism _is_ corporatism."

But as Cathy Young, former libertarian, would put it, "in foxholes 
there are no believers in free enterprise."

--Tim May



RE: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-24 Thread Lucky Green
Eugen wrote:
> This is dire lunacy. Currently US is perceived as an agressor 
> by the majority of the world, including the so-called ally 
> U.K. which has lent more than just its name. You will see an 
> unprecedented surge in terrorism in the heart of homeland 
> soon after this campaign is over. These attacks could well be 
> nuclear, or at the very least result in heavy casualities, 
> far eclipsing 9/11. Resulting nuclear strike on a random city 
> somewhere will result in a world wide nuclear arms race. Soon 
> after we're at the threshold of WWIII, a Gdeath event.

If any terrorists had nukes, why have they not used them so far?

--Lucky



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-24 Thread Bill Frantz
At 7:05 PM -0800 3/24/03, Declan McCullagh wrote:
>Or perhaps we'll see someone take a GPS-controlled small plane, which
>can carry 1,000 lbs, and turn it into a flying bomb or delivery system
>for something quite noxious. These planes can be rented by the hour at
>hundreds of small to medium sized airports around the U.S. Though I
>don't know if the autopilot is configurable enough to let an attacker
>program it to head to a certain altitude at a certain location and
>then bail out via parachute.

The simplest autopilots just keep the wings level.  Almost equally common
are ones that can follow a radio location signal (VHF Onmi-Range (VOR)
usually).  Altitude hold is less common, as are autopilots that can follow
an Instrument Landing System (ILS) in both azimuth and elevation.

In theory, one could set up an attack where the plane follows a VOR to the
target.  If the payload is chemical or biological, dispersing it at
altitude might be what is wanted.  Otherwise additional equipment will be
needed to crash the plane into the ground.

Cheers - Bill


-
Bill Frantz   | Due process for all| Periwinkle -- Consulting
(408)356-8506 | used to be the | 16345 Englewood Ave.
[EMAIL PROTECTED] | American way.  | Los Gatos, CA 95032, USA



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-24 Thread Declan McCullagh
On Mon, Mar 24, 2003 at 05:41:09PM +0100, Eugen Leitl wrote:
> This is dire lunacy. Currently US is perceived as an agressor by the
> majority of the world, including the so-called ally U.K. which has lent
> more than just its name. You will see an unprecedented surge in terrorism
> in the heart of homeland soon after this campaign is over.

I fear that's right. We have substantially increased our number of
enemies capable of causing us serious damage (and have the requiste
means, motive, and opportunity), while arguably decreasing the number
of our allies. Moreover, some of the intrusive laws we have adopted
since 9-11 and expansions in government power have increased the
danger of attacks on, say, Washington, DC by domestic malcontents.

Given that the U.S. has experienced relatively little homeland
terrorism so far, compared to other countries like the U.K., it
wouldn't take much to mark an "unprecedented surge." That said, I fear
you're right -- and it'll take a far more distributed form. I'm still
predicting radio-controlled helicopters (or RC planes, which could carry
a far greater load).

Or perhaps we'll see someone take a GPS-controlled small plane, which
can carry 1,000 lbs, and turn it into a flying bomb or delivery system
for something quite noxious. These planes can be rented by the hour at
hundreds of small to medium sized airports around the U.S. Though I
don't know if the autopilot is configurable enough to let an attacker
program it to head to a certain altitude at a certain location and
then bail out via parachute.

-Declan



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-24 Thread Eugen Leitl
On Mon, 24 Mar 2003, James A. Donald wrote:

> If the US trys to avoid civilian casualties, this is not out of 
> fear and weakness.  Indeed, when we observe the recent past, it 
> seems that it is failure to commit sufficient murder that 
> provokes these attacks.   The US does not suffer bad 

This is dire lunacy. Currently US is perceived as an agressor by the
majority of the world, including the so-called ally U.K. which has lent
more than just its name. You will see an unprecedented surge in terrorism
in the heart of homeland soon after this campaign is over. These attacks
could well be nuclear, or at the very least result in heavy casualities,
far eclipsing 9/11. Resulting nuclear strike on a random city somewhere
will result in a world wide nuclear arms race. Soon after we're at the
threshold of WWIII, a Gdeath event.

You probably don't want to go there.

> consequences from killing innocents, but from its failure to 
> kill sufficient innocents. 



Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-24 Thread Tyler Durden
James Donald wrote...

"perhaps
the most effectual thing the US could do to prevent future
random terror attacks is to round up one hundred million.
innocents and slaughter the lot.   Everyone loved the commies
for doing that, so if the US wants to be loved, perhaps it
needs to do the same."
What the hell are you talking about? "Everybody"? What "everybody"? You mean 
a couple of your fellow kooks on some obscure newsgroup? Both Stalin and Mao 
are now just about universally derided for their butchery. (Did they have a 
strength or two? Sure...what Dictator wasn't good at SOMETHING?)

Stop getting your facts from TV an internet posts, and go read a bunch of 
primary and secondary sources. Better yet, take a step outside your house 
every now and then.

-TD



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Re: Things are looking better all the time

2003-03-24 Thread James A. Donald
--
Harmon Seaver:
> > > Not inside the cities they can't, not without tons of 
> > > collateral damage, which will crucify Dubbya and Blair.
James A. Donald:
> > No one (except the US military which hopes to rule an
> > intact Iraq) least of all the protestors, care how many
> > Iraqis get killed. Who recollects how many Iraqis were
> > killed the last time around?

On 23 Mar 2003 at 23:36, Bill Stewart wrote:
> I got thrown off of Federal property for holding a sign about 
> it near the entrance when there was a pro-war rally going on.

OK, you recollect how many Iraqis were killed the last time 
around.  However "tons of collateral damage" is not going to 
crucify Bush and Blair, and to suggest that it would is to 
treat virtue as weakness.

I am enraged whenever I see people speaking as if the US desire 
to avoid civilian casualties was a form of weakness, a 
manifestation of weakness and fear   This view, this 
interpretation of US behavior, is so widespread that perhaps 
the most effectual thing the US could do to prevent future 
random terror attacks is to round up one hundred million. 
innocents and slaughter the lot.   Everyone loved the commies 
for doing that, so if the US wants to be loved, perhaps it 
needs to do the same.

If the US trys to avoid civilian casualties, this is not out of 
fear and weakness.  Indeed, when we observe the recent past, it 
seems that it is failure to commit sufficient murder that 
provokes these attacks.   The US does not suffer bad 
consequences from killing innocents, but from its failure to 
kill sufficient innocents. 

--digsig
 James A. Donald
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 Hu6ELr3jUIu3oEIpUP+J4+eT2MmE73JlaP2gGpR3
 4KKD7h+egCTl5Lbm/b7SZ67vmhXn3fpWObKHp2b2Y