Re: Spotting Trouble Identifying Faltering and Failing States (1997)
-- James A. Donald wrote: Oh wow, let us expand our current highly popular and successful Iraqi operation to embrace a quarter of the world. Wouldn't it be nice? No, come to think of it, it would not be nice. J.A. Terranson Since Mein Fuhrer Bush is preparing to escalate to Iran in a few months, you'd better get used to it. After the unpleasant experience of nation bulding in Iraq, I hope that for the next round, he will stick to nation destruction. --digsig James A. Donald 6YeGpsZR+nOTh/cGwvITnSR3TdzclVpR0+pr3YYQdkG wgw43gq8A2g53kCdBjoluX54Qwjxi4g0gYergxL2 4ZpJWmU7pyS7BAOC50oFHVaTl4jAtT7gJJlwH4E14
Re: Spotting Trouble Identifying Faltering and Failing States (1997)
At 12:02 PM -0800 1/17/05, James A. Donald wrote: After the unpleasant experience of nation bulding in Iraq, I hope that for the next round, he will stick to nation destruction. Amen. All we really needed was a quick fly-by and reformat, and let Allah sort 'em out, on a grand tour of the um, holy land. Next stop Syria, Iran, etc. Oh, well. Dance with the statist girl who brung ya, and all that. Rummy saw the wisdom of whatshisname, the pentagon analyst who came up with the original 50k number...'s plan, but couldn't quite sell it to the Generals-that-be. Tommy had only a small sip of the Kool-Aide, and apparently, but tried to cut it with a whole *vat* full of tanker-piss... Cheers, RAH -- - R. A. Hettinga mailto: [EMAIL PROTECTED] The Internet Bearer Underwriting Corporation http://www.ibuc.com/ 44 Farquhar Street, Boston, MA 02131 USA ... however it may deserve respect for its usefulness and antiquity, [predicting the end of the world] has not been found agreeable to experience. -- Edward Gibbon, 'Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire'
Re: Spotting Trouble Identifying Faltering and Failing States (1997)
At 4:34 PM -0500 1/17/05, R.A. Hettinga wrote: Tommy had only a small sip of the Kool-Aide, and apparently, ^h ^^saw the colors... but tried to cut it with a whole *vat* full of tanker-piss... I hate it when that happens... Cheers, RAH -- - R. A. Hettinga mailto: [EMAIL PROTECTED] The Internet Bearer Underwriting Corporation http://www.ibuc.com/ 44 Farquhar Street, Boston, MA 02131 USA ... however it may deserve respect for its usefulness and antiquity, [predicting the end of the world] has not been found agreeable to experience. -- Edward Gibbon, 'Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire'
Re: Spotting Trouble Identifying Faltering and Failing States (1997)
-- James A. Donald wrote: Oh wow, let us expand our current highly popular and successful Iraqi operation to embrace a quarter of the world. Wouldn't it be nice? No, come to think of it, it would not be nice. J.A. Terranson Since Mein Fuhrer Bush is preparing to escalate to Iran in a few months, you'd better get used to it. After the unpleasant experience of nation bulding in Iraq, I hope that for the next round, he will stick to nation destruction. --digsig James A. Donald 6YeGpsZR+nOTh/cGwvITnSR3TdzclVpR0+pr3YYQdkG wgw43gq8A2g53kCdBjoluX54Qwjxi4g0gYergxL2 4ZpJWmU7pyS7BAOC50oFHVaTl4jAtT7gJJlwH4E14
Re: Spotting Trouble Identifying Faltering and Failing States (1997)
At 12:02 PM -0800 1/17/05, James A. Donald wrote: After the unpleasant experience of nation bulding in Iraq, I hope that for the next round, he will stick to nation destruction. Amen. All we really needed was a quick fly-by and reformat, and let Allah sort 'em out, on a grand tour of the um, holy land. Next stop Syria, Iran, etc. Oh, well. Dance with the statist girl who brung ya, and all that. Rummy saw the wisdom of whatshisname, the pentagon analyst who came up with the original 50k number...'s plan, but couldn't quite sell it to the Generals-that-be. Tommy had only a small sip of the Kool-Aide, and apparently, but tried to cut it with a whole *vat* full of tanker-piss... Cheers, RAH -- - R. A. Hettinga mailto: [EMAIL PROTECTED] The Internet Bearer Underwriting Corporation http://www.ibuc.com/ 44 Farquhar Street, Boston, MA 02131 USA ... however it may deserve respect for its usefulness and antiquity, [predicting the end of the world] has not been found agreeable to experience. -- Edward Gibbon, 'Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire'
Re: Spotting Trouble Identifying Faltering and Failing States (1997)
At 4:34 PM -0500 1/17/05, R.A. Hettinga wrote: Tommy had only a small sip of the Kool-Aide, and apparently, ^h ^^saw the colors... but tried to cut it with a whole *vat* full of tanker-piss... I hate it when that happens... Cheers, RAH -- - R. A. Hettinga mailto: [EMAIL PROTECTED] The Internet Bearer Underwriting Corporation http://www.ibuc.com/ 44 Farquhar Street, Boston, MA 02131 USA ... however it may deserve respect for its usefulness and antiquity, [predicting the end of the world] has not been found agreeable to experience. -- Edward Gibbon, 'Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire'
Re: Spotting Trouble Identifying Faltering and Failing States (1997)
-- For these reasons it seems to us that military planners and decision makers should be interested in considering new approaches toward aiding failing and faltering states. 4 [...]The cure they propose is conservatorship, under which the United Nations would directly supervise or actually take over the government of a failed state until it became fully capable of administering its own affairs. 7 U.S. military and political leaders should immediately understand, these authors warn, that such a conservatorship would inevitably involve American military participation in some form or another. Oh wow, let us expand our current highly popular and successful Iraqi operation to embrace a quarter of the world. Wouldn't it be nice? No, come to think of it, it would not be nice. The problem is not failed states. The problem is states like North Korea, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, which are not failing, but damn well should. --digsig James A. Donald 6YeGpsZR+nOTh/cGwvITnSR3TdzclVpR0+pr3YYQdkG KZbrHZ/MYP584OnYd7NsjZjmUpn8Srn0ydIoe269 4ATqczLXXya6Ei6jVdqfx7nHh1/Fdp6s6+VCLrdwO
Re: Spotting Trouble Identifying Faltering and Failing States (1997)
On Sun, 16 Jan 2005, James A. Donald wrote: Oh wow, let us expand our current highly popular and successful Iraqi operation to embrace a quarter of the world. Wouldn't it be nice? No, come to think of it, it would not be nice. Since Mein Fuhrer Bush is preparing to escalate to Iran in a few months, you'd better get used to it. The problem is not failed states. The problem is states like North Korea, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, which are not failing, but damn well should. No. The problem is states like the US who should keep their fascist noses out of other states business. Let those states rise or fall on their own merits or demerits, but allow nature to take it's course. It's not our place to be decisiding what is an appropriate government for others. Hell, we can't even figure out what's appropriate *here*. --digsig James A. Donald -- Yours, J.A. Terranson [EMAIL PROTECTED] 0xBD4A95BF Civilization is in a tailspin - everything is backwards, everything is upside down- doctors destroy health, psychiatrists destroy minds, lawyers destroy justice, the major media destroy information, governments destroy freedom and religions destroy spirituality - yet it is claimed to be healthy, just, informed, free and spiritual. We live in a social system whose community, wealth, love and life is derived from alienation, poverty, self-hate and medical murder - yet we tell ourselves that it is biologically and ecologically sustainable. The Bush plan to screen whole US population for mental illness clearly indicates that mental illness starts at the top. Rev Dr Michael Ellner
Re: Spotting Trouble Identifying Faltering and Failing States (1997)
On Sun, 16 Jan 2005 22:31:05 -0600 (CST), J.A. Terranson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Since Mein Fuhrer Bush is preparing to escalate to Iran in a few months, you'd better get used to it. It's interesting you called him that, given your next statement. No. The problem is states like the US who should keep their fascist noses out of other states business. Let those states rise or fall on their own merits or demerits, but allow nature to take it's course. It's not our place to be decisiding what is an appropriate government for others. Hell, we can't even figure out what's appropriate *here*. Isolationism didn't work 70 years ago; what makes you think it will work better in this new age of globalism? -- Pete Capelli [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.capelli.org PGP Key ID:0x829263B6 Those who would give up essential liberty for temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety - Benjamin Franklin, 1759
Re: Spotting Trouble Identifying Faltering and Failing States (1997)
-- For these reasons it seems to us that military planners and decision makers should be interested in considering new approaches toward aiding failing and faltering states. 4 [...]The cure they propose is conservatorship, under which the United Nations would directly supervise or actually take over the government of a failed state until it became fully capable of administering its own affairs. 7 U.S. military and political leaders should immediately understand, these authors warn, that such a conservatorship would inevitably involve American military participation in some form or another. Oh wow, let us expand our current highly popular and successful Iraqi operation to embrace a quarter of the world. Wouldn't it be nice? No, come to think of it, it would not be nice. The problem is not failed states. The problem is states like North Korea, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, which are not failing, but damn well should. --digsig James A. Donald 6YeGpsZR+nOTh/cGwvITnSR3TdzclVpR0+pr3YYQdkG KZbrHZ/MYP584OnYd7NsjZjmUpn8Srn0ydIoe269 4ATqczLXXya6Ei6jVdqfx7nHh1/Fdp6s6+VCLrdwO
Re: Spotting Trouble Identifying Faltering and Failing States (1997)
On Sun, 16 Jan 2005 22:31:05 -0600 (CST), J.A. Terranson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: Since Mein Fuhrer Bush is preparing to escalate to Iran in a few months, you'd better get used to it. It's interesting you called him that, given your next statement. No. The problem is states like the US who should keep their fascist noses out of other states business. Let those states rise or fall on their own merits or demerits, but allow nature to take it's course. It's not our place to be decisiding what is an appropriate government for others. Hell, we can't even figure out what's appropriate *here*. Isolationism didn't work 70 years ago; what makes you think it will work better in this new age of globalism? -- Pete Capelli [EMAIL PROTECTED] http://www.capelli.org PGP Key ID:0x829263B6 Those who would give up essential liberty for temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety - Benjamin Franklin, 1759
Re: Spotting Trouble Identifying Faltering and Failing States (1997)
On Sun, 16 Jan 2005, James A. Donald wrote: Oh wow, let us expand our current highly popular and successful Iraqi operation to embrace a quarter of the world. Wouldn't it be nice? No, come to think of it, it would not be nice. Since Mein Fuhrer Bush is preparing to escalate to Iran in a few months, you'd better get used to it. The problem is not failed states. The problem is states like North Korea, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia, which are not failing, but damn well should. No. The problem is states like the US who should keep their fascist noses out of other states business. Let those states rise or fall on their own merits or demerits, but allow nature to take it's course. It's not our place to be decisiding what is an appropriate government for others. Hell, we can't even figure out what's appropriate *here*. --digsig James A. Donald -- Yours, J.A. Terranson [EMAIL PROTECTED] 0xBD4A95BF Civilization is in a tailspin - everything is backwards, everything is upside down- doctors destroy health, psychiatrists destroy minds, lawyers destroy justice, the major media destroy information, governments destroy freedom and religions destroy spirituality - yet it is claimed to be healthy, just, informed, free and spiritual. We live in a social system whose community, wealth, love and life is derived from alienation, poverty, self-hate and medical murder - yet we tell ourselves that it is biologically and ecologically sustainable. The Bush plan to screen whole US population for mental illness clearly indicates that mental illness starts at the top. Rev Dr Michael Ellner
Spotting Trouble Identifying Faltering and Failing States (1997)
Click the link for the couple of tables referenced in the text. Cheers, RAH http://www.nwc.navy.mil/press/Review/1997/spring/art4sp97.htm Naval War College Spotting Trouble Identifying Faltering and Failing States Richard J. Norton and James F. Miskel In the past several years, images of American servicemembers hurriedly deploying to various parts of the developing world in response to collapses of state governments have become relatively common. For example, in 1995 U.S. troops kept uneasy watch on the borders of the disintegrating Former Republic of Yugoslavia, patrolled the streets of Haiti, dealt with streams of refugees pouring out of Rwanda, and withdrew from Somalia after four years of humanitarian operations. These operations have not been inexpensive; they have cost billions of dollars and dozens of American lives. U.S. military involvement with faltering and failing states takes many forms. 1 Actual combat may be involved, against opponents ranging from criminal gangs possessing little more than light infantry weapons to semiprofessional armies boasting artillery and armor. 2 In other circumstances, nation building activities, such as road building, water purification, and power restoration, make up the bulk of the efforts. Additional tasks have included advising on clearing land mines, providing security escorts to representatives of humanitarian organizations, serving as an interim police force, evacuating foreign nationals, or simply maintaining an offshore military presence. As 1995 demonstrated, states can fail in any portion of the populated globe. The preparation time given U.S. military planners to respond to these missions can range from months to only days; actual involvement may last from weeks to years, with a proportionate range of costs. Additionally, in an era of shrinking resources and limited force structure, it is all the more significant that units committed to these missions are likely to be unavailable for other operations. Therefore, military leaders are among the decision makers who have a vested interest in being able to predict more accurately which states are likely to fail. Others with this interest would include the president, senior diplomats in the State Department, and the directors of humanitarian nongovernmental organizations. Early identification of candidates for failure would allow time to list required assets and prepare detailed contingency plans. If, as we shall argue, traditional economic aid does not significantly help states that are at high risk of failure, early identification could also aid in forestalling the authorization of costly and unproductive civil affairs or nation-building missions. In fact, early warning can provide time to debate usefully whether the military should be involved at all, and if it should, what shape the participation should take. Despite the frequent and prominent involvement of the U.S. military, dealing with faltering and failed states is primarily a diplomatic issue. Traditionally, development aid has been viewed as an essential element in preventing states from failing. Development aid has included military nation building and civil affairs projects, not only as routine peacetime operations but also as part of disaster response packages and postconflict assistance. These projects are often funded solely by the regional commanders in chief or the military services. Attempts to apply this aid have frequently been lengthy and quite costly. 3 Yet notwithstanding the costs that were borne, these efforts have restored very few failing states to health. Debates regarding the efficient and effective application of current fiscally constrained military budgets have become commonplace, both within and outside the military services. A factor in this debate may be a dawning anxiety about the wisdom of high risk, low return investments in failing states, investments that may yield little or no positive return. For these reasons it seems to us that military planners and decision makers should be interested in considering new approaches toward aiding failing and faltering states. 4 One such approach would recognize that the economic, social, and political conditions in failing states are so adverse that they merit qualitatively different treatment by the United States. Too often, U.S. foreign aid and military assistance policies have dealt with failing states as if they were no different from other underdeveloped and poor nations. Traditional programs were designed for less dire situations and can, at best, only moderate the symptoms, not cure such diseases. Thus, continued spending on traditional forms of foreign aid for these states is not the most cost-effective strategy in an era of scarce resources. A better approach--akin to triage for battlefield wounds--would limit aid in these cases to short-term humanitarian assistance, like disaster relief. These states do not offer fertile soil for economic
