Re: Things are looking better all the time [TERROR ALERT: Cerenkov Blue]
At 09:36 AM 3/27/03 -0800, Tim May wrote: On Thursday, March 27, 2003, at 08:41 AM, John Kelsey wrote: ... However, it seems to me it would be very hard for this news not to leak out. If, say, a nuke or serious bioterror weapon had been found in a major city, a lot of agencies would have had knowledge of it. It seems to me that at least one person would have said something, leaked it to the press, etc., for any of the usual reasons. True. I think it would depend on how it was dealt with. My wife used to work for a state environmental regulatory agency, and when their lab truck showed up someplace to collect samples, it always drew a lot of attention. Obviously, if the NEST people show up at some apartment building in Manhattan wearing moon suits, or if dozens of firemen and policemen are involved, it's going to be hard to keep it from slipping out that something interesting has happened. But if it were handled quietly, a single incident like this might not make the news. And if the incident was a terrorist nuke that turned out not to go off, the only evidence might be a soon-discounted warning call to a couple of major newspapers. --John Kelsey, [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: Things are looking better all the time [TERROR ALERT: Cerenkov Blue]
On Tuesday 01 April 2003 08:50 pm, Neil Johnson wrote: When I went to work for the University I graduated from. I discovered all sorts of interesting things and even more when my sister enrolled.
Re: Things are looking better all the time [TERROR ALERT: Cerenkov Blue]
John Kelsey wrote: I wasn't thinking of Al Qaida. There are a *lot* of people who might like to have a last-ditch deterrent against a US invasion or other action. I can think of a few workable deterrents against US invasion: - ICBMS - an army with a reputation of fighting nastily when attacked - a serious US-based political lobby friendly to the country Russian, China, and Britain have all three. France has one and two halves these days. The logic is that Israel should join the permanent membership of the Security Council - and India is a candidate as well. That's all the permanent members are really, a gang of countries who agreed not to fight each other because they had the nukes, so had to be sure to tell the others when they were going to pick on third-party country in case two of them picked on the same victim and ended up fighting each other by accident. The Security Council was nothing to do with the rule of international law (bye-bye Richard-Might-is-Right-Perle, I hope the rest of the warmongers take the pension-reducing plunge soon) and everything to do with the logic of MAD and carving up the world into spheres on influence. (And North Korea is in the Chinese sphere of influence, which is why the US leaves policing their nukes up to China.)
Re: Things are looking better all the time [TERROR ALERT: Cerenkov Blue]
On Thursday, March 27, 2003, at 08:41 AM, John Kelsey wrote: At 08:28 AM 3/26/03 -0800, Major Variola (ret) wrote: At 06:12 PM 3/25/03 -0500, John Kelsey wrote: ... Maybe the FBI caught them and disarmed the bombs before they went off. And they didn't claim any credit? This doesn't jibe with the puffery one observes. Well, there's puffery, and then there's trying to avoid panic. Though I'll agree this looks less plausible after the all Americans should have duct tape and plastic to wrap their houses announcements. But I'm trying to imagine the fallout (sorry) from announcing on CNN that they'd just found and disarmed a nuke that had been hidden in an apartment building in Manhattan. (Officials said the bomb, which had approximately the same destructive power as the one used at Hiroshima, would have killed more than a million people if set off. In related news, the 200-mile-long traffic jam caused by refugees flooding out of the city continued today, and the NYSE announced that they would be moving operations to an undisclosed location in New Jersey for the forseeable future.) This is a very good analysis. I had not considered that some WMDs might have been discovered and dealt with, but then not publicized for the reasons you describe. However, it seems to me it would be very hard for this news not to leak out. If, say, a nuke or serious bioterror weapon had been found in a major city, a lot of agencies would have had knowledge of it. It seems to me that at least one person would have said something, leaked it to the press, etc., for any of the usual reasons. Such a thing could probably be kept secret for a few days, but not for months, it seems to me. Still, in this Orwellian era where the invasion of Iraq is called Operation Iraqi Freedom, where the fact that the U.N. and most countries oppose this invasion results in the Coalition of the Willing, and where other doublespeak is rampant, I suppose the authorities will do what they can to not scare the sheeple. Rumsfield is promising that the reasons for the invasion--Iraq's banned weapons--will still be found. So far, they haven't been, not in any of the regions yet invaded, and with no signs of them being used...the rockets launched at COW and COWait have been Al-Fatah missile, which were not banned. I don't doubt that there are probably some undestroyed missiles or even some chemical agents somewhere in a country as large as Iraq...bookkeeping errors alone would probably guarantee this. But it is so far looking like the U.S. will have some serious explaining to do if stockpiles of banned weapons are not found. The DOD and CIA are probably creating them right now. --Tim May, Occupied America They that give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety. -- Benjamin Franklin, 1759.
RE: Things are looking better all the time [TERROR ALERT: Cerenkov Blue]
At 06:12 PM 3/25/03 -0500, John Kelsey wrote: At 04:37 AM 3/25/03 +0100, Lucky Green wrote: ... If any terrorists had nukes, why have they not used them so far? Suppose you only have one, it was really hard to get, and you're not sure how much of your US network has been turned, or at least placed under heavy surveilance? Maybe you wait until you are really sure you can succeed before you use it. You're not even sure whether it works well, either. (Note that even a completely subcritical dud will still be a dispersal device unless they seriously overbuild a U gun-type device.) Alternatively, we have no way of knowing how often terrorists have tried to use nukes, but been stopped one way or another. Maybe the Russians sold them very convincing duds. Um, several times, in fact. Look Abdul, it clicks! Must be fissile.. There's a technically incompetent but well financed jihadist born every minute. (Its the competent ones you want to worry about.) Maybe the FBI caught them and disarmed the bombs before they went off. And they didn't claim any credit? This doesn't jibe with the puffery one observes. And for a third alternative, it's quite possible (I don't know how likely) that one or more groups have smuggled nukes into the US, planted them in US cities, and offered proof to the US government, as a way of establishing a nuclear deterrent. (C.f. Ross Anderson's Guy Fawkes Protocol.) But they've *already* declared their goals in numerous fatwas by now, what do you want, a UN resolution? And deterrent type solutions haven't worked. The US probably increased its presence in the land of Mecca since the first WTC attack. Al Q's m.o. is simply to make the expected future cost of empire too high. This future expectation is produced by current actions. So, its preferable that Americans think they had one, they can get another (while viewing the Detroit Crater from the observation platform), instead of supposedly (according to some idiot official who says we're on code Cerenkov Blue) there's a nuculear geezmo in some city. Besides, if you announce, you are toast. There are pretty obvious reasons why the US government might not announce either of the last two cases, and why the terrorist group of your choice wouldn't announce we have a bomb until they had the thing planted where they wanted it. Again, the operational risks with extortion, traced communications, the faith-based motivations and psyop saavy of Al Q indicate Use It or Lose It. If you've got 'em, smoke 'em as they say. --- He listened patiently to my explanation of how I now believed a hydrogen bomb should be constructed, but he seemed unenthusiastic about what I had to say and preoccupied with other thoughts. After I left his office, I found to my considerable dismay that the fly to my trousers had been unzipped. E. Teller p 317 Memoirs
