Re: Batter Up! (Was Re: Ex-Intel VP Fights for Detainee)

[James A. Donald]

--
On 3 Apr 2003 at 16:20, Joseph Ashwood wrote:
> The center of power is not currently important, but with the
> growing disruption that the Israel-Palestine problem presents
> I have a strong suspicion that military force in the middle
> east will become increasingly necessary. The foundation for
> this is rather simple to find, it was bin Laden himself that
> said something like until the people of Palestine know
> safety, the US will not.

He said it, but the complete absence of Palestinians among the
hijackers suggests it is not true.

Despite the fact that bulldozers reluctantly donated by the US
taxpayer are driving over palestinians right now, arab
terrorism is not a punishment for the sins of the west, but for
its virtues.

Indeed, I would argue that though the US should halt all
support for the terrorist state of Israel for moral reasons,
halting that support right now would be extremely dangerous,
because it would encourage terrorism, would create the
perception that terror pays.  (The Palestinians and Israelis
are also in the same bind, since if either side halts or even
reduces terror, the other side will conclude that terror pays,
and certainly escalate that terror.)

The US dare not halt is support for Israeli terror until the US
itself has first killed about six to thirty thousand arab
civilians, and it is a long way from achieving the necessary
numbers. 

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 James A. Donald
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Re: Batter Up! (Was Re: Ex-Intel VP Fights for Detainee)

[Kevin S. Van Horn]

Joseph Ashwood wrote:

The priority oil is not a current problem but with the world oil supply
quickly becoming depleted (some estimates put us at only 30 years left) 

Which is what they were saying 30 years ago...

Re: Batter Up! (Was Re: Ex-Intel VP Fights for Detainee)

[Joseph Ashwood]

First let me say that I am anti-war. Maybe it is just because I've changed
from being purely a tech player to now owning Trust Laboratories, and so
primarily being a businessman, but I see things slightly differently from
the WSJ.

> 
excerpts
> Of course, the largest benefit -- a more stable Mideast -- is huge
> but unquantifiable. A second plus, lower oil prices, is somewhat more
> measurable. (Oil prices fell again yesterday on the prospect of
> victory.) The premium on 11.5 million barrels imported every day by
> the U.S. is a transfer from us to producing countries. Postwar, with
> Iraqi production back in the pipeline and calmer markets, oil prices
> will fall even further. If they drop to an average in the low $20s,
> the U.S. economy will get a boost of $55 billion to $60 billion a
> year.

I don't think the stable Mideast is the largest benefit. The largest benefit
comes from having a US-friendly government in the Mideast. This has several
benefits the most important of which are; it provides a stable center of
power for the US in the Mideast, and provides the US with priority oil.

The center of power is not currently important, but with the growing
disruption that the Israel-Palestine problem presents I have a strong
suspicion that military force in the middle east will become increasingly
necessary. The foundation for this is rather simple to find, it was bin
Laden himself that said something like until the people of Palestine know
safety, the US will not. To counter this we need only have a friendly
country in the middle east where we can temporarily position our armaments,
this will vastly reduce the cost of troop movement the next time our
presence will be felt.

The priority oil is not a current problem but with the world oil supply
quickly becoming depleted (some estimates put us at only 30 years left) the
availability of a conisistent oil supply can be economically justified
rather easily. Not that this will make much difference for your average
person, but military purposes of oil are many.

Militarily, these end benefits are enormous. The interim general populous
benfits are substantial as well, but I don't feel they are as impactual.
Already the general populous is beginning to see hybrid cars, fuel-cell cars
are only a few-years away, and at least GM and BMW are experimenting with
internal-combustion hydrogen engines (a few years ago BMW had running
experimental 7 series that used internal combustion hydrogen that travelled
parts of Europe). With these advances the general usage of oil is likely to
diminish over the next couple decades spurred on by the vastly increasing
cost of purchasing gasoline. There will of course be the necessary,
temporary, dip in oil pricing as the Iraqi oil fields are pushed into higher
production. Over time though this dip will mysteriously disappear, blamed on
market forces if anyone actually notices.

> But perhaps the best way to look at the economics of the war has been
> suggested by John Cogan. The Hoover Institution economist says the
> war is an investment. The proper question then becomes what resources
> are we willing to invest to achieve peace and stability, and a
> diminished threat from terrorism and terrorist-supporting states. At
> 1% of GDP, the war looks like a bargain.

I very much agree with John Cogan, this war is an investment. I disagree
though with the WSJ conclusion that this is an investment in the stability
of the Middle East/ending Iraqi containment. Instead I believe that this is
an investment in US stability, and military ability. As such it will pay off
enormously, but I believe the costs to be far in excess of helping the
middle east address the Israel problem in a diplomatic way which would cost
less, undermine much of the terrorist actions, make the US look like more of
a beneficial monopoly, and certainly put us in better favor throughout the
Middle East.

Before anyone feels free to jump on me about this, I would like to remind
everyone that I am anti-war. I believe that war should only be used in
situations where it is truly unavoidable.
Joe

Trust Laboratories
http://www.trustlaboratories.com