SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP054
ARLP054 Propagation de K7RA
ZCZC AP54
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 54 ARLP054
From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA December 31, 2009
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP ARL ARLP054
ARLP054 Propagation de K7RA
Here we are on the last day of the year, with finally some very
positive indicators for Cycle 24. Except for Christmas day, since
December 9 sunspots have been visible every day. Average daily
sunspot numbers for the week December 24-30 were 12.9, an 18.5 point
drop from the previous week, which was a 10.3 point rise from the
previous week, December 10-16.
Average daily solar flux dropped from 82.8 to 76.2 from the December
17-23 reporting week, but the December 30 forecast from the U.S. Air
Force predicts a solar flux value of 79 from December 31 to January
3, 80 for January 4-9, and 85 for January 10-18. They also predict
a steady and stable planetary A index of five through February 13.
Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet for the first week of
January. You can get an update on the Air Force/NOAA prediction
after 2100 UTC at,
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html.
Since December 26 we've been blessed with new sunspot group 1039,
which is now just past the zero degree meridian, referenced to
Earth. This is the spot in the center of the solar image. This is
the sixth new sunspot group to emerge in December.
After today we will know the three-month moving daily sunspot
average centered on November, and it looks close to the average
centered on August, 2007, which was 10.17. The moving average has
not been above ten since then. The daily average for the month of
December should be close to 15.7, the highest monthly average since
March, 2008.
A number of sharp-eyed readers caught the major gaffe in the last
bulletin, when I dozed off and with my fingers on autopilot I typed
Spring Equinox when I should have said Summer Solstice. Needless to
say, Spring is not six months off. The Vernal (Spring) Equinox is
only 79 days from today. Thanks to (in order of notification) N5UWY,
WE5I, KW6G, KF7FIU, W3DM, N0LNO, and WA3VKG for noticing and not
having too much fun at my expense.
Joe Reisert, W1JR, an exceptional low band DXer sent some comments
about the solar minimum. I commented that the exceptionally quiet
conditions are remarkable, and may partially make up for a lack of
solar activity. At least we aren't bothered by large flares.
Joe responded, I really don't think the low bands are that improved
over times when the sunspots were there. Yes, it was nice to work
TX3A and K4M on 160 meters for new ones but I still can't get JT1CO
to hear me! Sometimes JAs spot me on 160 meters but no JAs call me!
Except for early last February when one morning I worked 7 JAs (!)
in a row starting at my sunrise (!), I haven't seen any really great
Asian openings. I guess I just have to hang in there. I did land
VK9XX on 80 near our sunset for number 341 about a month ago. That
was a real thrill as he was only working Europeans and somehow I
broke the pile up.
Rod Vorndam, K9ROD of Rye, Colorado wrote last week: The past
couple of weeks have seen openings to Europe at sunrise on 20
meters. This Gray Line Effect has made for several strong contacts.
I worked I2OHO (Italy), ON5CD (Belgium), HB9RDE (Switzerland), and
received several others including OZ1IKY (Denmark) and S51ZZZ
(Slovenia). These are my first European contacts into the Western
part of the US.
Mark Lunday, WD4ELG of Greensboro, North Carolina has a nice blog
with observations on DX from his new QTH. Read it at
http://wd4elg.blogspot.com/.
Mark wrote, on Christmas Day: One thing I have noticed recently
with the slight up tick in solar activity, is that 40 meters now
reminds me of 20 meters during the solar peak. Even during daylight,
there is DX open to somewhere on 40 in winter months. The exception
is high noon. But mornings and late afternoons have LOTS of activity
on 40.
This afternoon, I copied HS0CZY/4 on 40 meters about an hour before
my sunset. The last time I remember something like this was 1
January 2005 when I worked YB1A on 40 CW late in the afternoon.
On Monday at 0100 local, I heard a fluttery signal RST 529, I copy
JA7DLE, call him twice, he gets my call, BAM he is in the log. I
have ONE JA QSO ALL-TIME on 80, and this is my SECOND EVER on 40.
This is with a single vertical and 100 watts. What is neat about
this is that it happens at 0100 local while I can hear EU stations
599 AND South Cook Islands DXpedition 559. So I am copying Pacific,
JA, AND Europe at the same time. When the Sun throws lemons, make
your own DX/lemonade.
I heard 4S7NE on 40 CW at 2030 local, just after his sunrise. I
have tried to hear Nelson since I worked him on 17 meters back in
2005, but I have never heard him since. Amazing!
Thanks Mark.
Bob Doherty, K1VV of Lakeville, Massachusetts reminds us that
tonight is Straight Key Night! Take a look at,
http://www.qrz.com/db/K1VV/1262178636 and
