[DX-NEWS] ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP38 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 20, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity continues to be weak, although there was an uptick on September 18-19 when solar flux rose to 104.1, then 107.9. September 18 was the first day with solar flux above 100 since September 6. Average daily sunspot number for the reporting week (September 12-18) rose to 42.3, up from 37.7 for the previous seven days. The daily sunspot number on September 18-19 rose from 59 to 85. Average daily solar flux dipped slightly, from 98.2 to 95.3 over the same seven day period. Average daily planetary A index and mid-latitude A index were both 6.3. For the near term, solar flux is predicted at 110 on September 20-22, 105 on September 23-24, 100 on September 25-30, 95 on October 1-13, and 100 on October 14-27. Over the past few days all of the short term predictions for solar flux have been adjusted downward. Predicted planetary A index is 8 on September 20, 5 on September 21-22, 8 on September 23-24, 5 on September 25-26, 8 on September 27, 12 on September 28, 5 on September 29 through October 9, then 10, 8, 5, 15, 10 and 8 on October 10-15, followed by 5 on October 16-18. OK1HH sent us another geomagnetic forecast, and he thinks the geomagnetic field will be quiet to unsettled on September 20-21, mostly quiet September 22, quiet to unsettled on September 23, quiet on September 24-25, mostly quiet September 26, active to disturbed September 27, quiet to active September 28, mostly quiet September 29, quiet on September 30, quiet to active October 1, quiet on October 2-5, quiet to unsettled October 6-7, mostly quiet October 8, and active to disturbed October 9. OK1HH also says a growing solar wind may cause "remarkable changes" in the magnetosphere and ionosphere on September 20-21, and on September 24. The Autumnal Equinox is just a couple of days away. Fall officially begins in the Northern Hemisphere on Sunday, September 22 at 2044 UTC. Check out this science blog, with observation about the current weak cycle at, http://www.science20.com/news_articles/solar_activity_smallest_sunspot_cycle_1906-120785. The following interesting article has a lot of good information, surprising (to me) for an article from a financial and markets analyst who is not a science reporter. The only minor quibble I have is with his apparent confusion between number of sunspots and sunspot number, which are very different, but otherwise this article is quite a good effort: http://www.trust.org/item/20130918115439-cn7ub/?source=hpbreaking Howard Lester, N7SO sent this article from Sky & Telescope. http://www.skyandtelescope.com/community/skyblog/newsblog/Glimpse-of-Suns-Interior-Befuddles-Theorists-223291961.html. Jon Jones, N0JK commented on N8II's recent report, and says that 10 meters has been good in Kansas as well, with F0/KH0PR on Disappointment Island worked on September 11 at 1955 UTC from his mobile using a modified CB mag mount on the roof. Roland Anders, K3RA also commented on N8II's experience, "Jeff's excellent report about 12 meters prompts me to pass along that there was some 12 meter excitement in Maryland on Sept 10 around noon. I worked 9M6XRO at 1538Z on CW, and E20WKA on SSB at 1603Z. VOACAP modeling shows that possibility. European stations were coming through at the same time." Larry Godek, W0OGH sent these links for checking sunrise/sunset times around the world: http://www.gaisma.com/en/ and http://www.gaisma.com/en/dir/us-country.html . If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins. Sunspot numbers for September 12 through 18 were 58, 40, 24, 12, 23, 80, and 59, with a mean of 42.3. 10.7 cm flux was 92.9, 91.6, 92.5, 92.8, 94.5, 98.7, and 104.1, with a mean of 95.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 9, 6, 2, 5, 8, and 7, with a mean of 6.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 10, 6, 3, 6, 8, and 6, with a mean of 6.3. --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to imail...@njdxa.org In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscrib
[DX-NEWS] ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP39 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 21, 2012 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers dropped this week, from 83.1 in the September 6-12 week, to 56 in the recent September 13-19 period. Average daily solar flux declined from 118.9 to 101.4. The latest forecast shows predicted solar flux at 115 on September 21-22, 120 on September 23-25, then 125 on September 26-27, 130 on September 28, and 140 on September 29 to October 1. On October 2 it drops to 135, 130 on October 3-5, 125 on October 6-7, 120 on October 8, and 115 on October 8-9. Flux values then dip below 100 on October 14-16, and peak again around 140 on October 25-28. The predicted planetary A index is 12 on September 21-22, 10 on September 23 and 5 on September 24-28, 10 again on September 29, 5 on September 30 through October 2, 10 on October 3, 8 on October 4-5, and 5 on October 6-11. The Czech Propagation Interest Group geomagnetic forecast this week comes to us from Petr Kolman, OK1MGW. They see quiet to unsettled geomagnetic activity September 21-22, mostly quiet September 23, quiet September 24-26, mostly quiet September 27, quiet to unsettled September 28-29, quiet to active September 30 through October 1, active to disturbed October 2, quiet to active October 3, quiet to unsettled October 4-5, quiet October 6-8, and quiet to unsettled October 9-11. Carol Milazzo, KP4MD/W6 in Citrus Heights, California wrote in about WSPR mode for weak signal work on 2 meters. She says, "California 2 meter WSPR study group stations on 144.4905 MHz can be heard throughout the state of California from Redding at the north end of the central valley down to San Diego. Joe Taylor K1JT's WSPR mode allows stations with modest power and antennas to participate in weak signal VHF propagation experiments. Some of our data is posted on http://www.qsl.net/kp4md/144_mhz_wspr.htm."; Scott Avery, WA6LIE of Salinas, California writes: "I was very disappointed in last week's ARRL VHF/UHF contest. We got skunked on 6 meters to local only, but worked all the locals on 2 meters on up. "A few weeks ago I started experimenting with WSPR. Interesting to see what your station hears, and who hears you. Anyway, most of my WSPR work has been on 2 meters. Though WSPR is not too popular yet, I have had some pretty amazing results. Running 20 watts to a 13 element horizontally polarized beam up 40', I usually select Norcal or Socal to aim. "Most of the stations are in the SF bay area, but a few new ones popped up in LA and San Diego area. "Beaming south, I still hear a few stations 100 miles plus to the north. To the south N3IZN in Fallbrook is working me at 340 miles away, and N6KOG at 387 miles several times a day (via tropo?). More stations and experiments are needed. It would be nice to see more WSPR stations up on VHF/UHF." For more info on WSPR, visit http://wsprnet.org/ and http://physics.princeton.edu/pulsar/K1JT/. Rich Zwirko, K1HTV wrote on September 14, about what happened in September 6: "I got up early and called CQ on CW on 144.330 MHz. An announce message was made of the DX Cluster. I logged into the ON4KST.ORG 144/432 website and notified the guys of my transmissions. A suggestion was made that I transmit on JT65A, which I started to do on 144.325 MHz. Three EI stations and G4LOH participated on the European end of the path. Eventually, when I had to QRT at 1200Z, VE1SKY in NS and K1TEO in CT joined in the test. But as far as I know, no Trans-Atlantic QSO was made. An additional attempt may be made early UTC Saturday by stations in W1 and VE1/9/VO. FYI, G4LOH was the holder of the IARU Region I 2 Meter distance record 4041 km record for 4 years with a QSO with D44TD. M0VRL added 75 miles to the record working D44TD in August of 2011. Some day, with an assist from Hepburn maps, ON4KST chat rooms and DX Cluster, two Hams will win the Brendan trophies for completing a 2 Meter QSO between Europe and the Americas (North or South)." Rich included this article from the August 2002 issue of QST: http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis/info/pdf/0208036.pdf. Dave Clemons, K1VUT of Middleboro, Massachusetts wrote: "In the ARRL VHF Contest on 6 meters, on September 8, I worked both LU9EHJ and PY1RO from EMA FN41. I believe these might have been a combination of TEP and Es since it appears that the QSOs might not have been equal distance from the equator on both ends. (Or I could be geographically challenged! Either way it was very nice to get that far south on 6 meters.)" If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin
[DX-NEWS] ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP38 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 23, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA Compared to the uneventful past few years, sunspot activity was truly remarkable this week. Daily sunspot number for September 16 was 173, a level that hasn't been reached since over six years ago, way back on July 5, 2005 in Cycle 23, when the sunspot number was 181. Solar flux reached 150.1 on September 18. Just six months ago it was slightly higher - 153 on March 7 and 155 on March 8 - but prior to that the only higher number was 157.3 on August 22, 2005, about 7 weeks after the sunspot number of 181. Average daily sunspot numbers for the past reporting week (Thursday through Wednesday, September 15-21) we up over 45 points from the previous week to 137, and average daily solar flux rose nearly 22 points to 144. Currently the solar flux and planetary A index forecast from USAF/NOAA calls for solar flux of 155, 160, 165 and 170 on September 23-26, 175 on September 27-30, 130 on October 1, and 135 on October 2-5. These flux values through September 30 are quite a bit higher than the values predicted a day earlier, and run in the ARRL Letter. Planetary A index is predicted at 5 on September 23, 15 on September 24-25, 5 and 8 on September 26-27, 5 on September 28-30, 8 on October 1, and 5 on October 2-7. Geophysical Institute Prague sees quiet conditions September 23-25, quiet to unsettled September 26-27, and quiet again on September 28-29. At 2323 UTC IPS Radio and Space Services in Australia issue a warning of upcoming geomagnetic disturbance on September 24-25 due to a coronal mass ejection. You can download the latest (October) edition of WorldRadio Online at http://www.worldradiomagazine.com/ to read this month's Propagation column from Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, on pages 30-33. This month's effort uses ray tracings from the Proplab-Pro software (http://www.spacew.com/proplab/) to help explain refraction, absorption and polarization of radio signals. Today is the Fall Equinox in the Northern Hemisphere. In fact I am writing these words at the exact time of the equinox, right at 0905 UTC on September 23. Angel Santana, WP3GW of Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico is excited about all the new solar activity right around the equinox. He wrote, "Almost two weeks ago I did not have much luck on the Work All Europe SSB contest. On 20 and 40 meters I only had 77 QSOs. But last Saturday September 17 at about 1500 UTC 10 meters exploded with European stations. Did someone say sunspot numbers over 100, and everybody got on the air? "First to work was F4EZJ, then OT4A who even asked if there were a contest, for the fast pace of the contacts. Even worked 5B4AIF and went to 12 meters and worked EA9IB. Returned to 10 and some even answered my call. Later at 2000 UTC went to 12 meters and worked another bunch of Europeans. If this is a preview of the upcoming contest period, we're in for a roll!" Rob Steenburgh, KA8JBY says the Space Weather Prediction Center now has a Facebook page. Check http://www.facebook.com/pages/NOAA-NWS-Space-Weather-Prediction-Center/232532740131296. NW7US has a similar Space Weather and Radio Resources page at https://www.facebook.com/spacewx.hfradio. Jeff Hartley, N8II of Shepherdstown, West Virginia wrote: "I knew it was probably going to be a good day (September 16) when 4W6A was the first signal heard on 21295 at around 1200Z; he was not workable, running EUs I couldn't hear. 20 sounded fair, logging BP100 (Taiwan) and BA8AG. Then a quick check of 15 at 1245Z showed 4W6A up to about S4-5 and looking for 'North America only'; after several tries, he was in the log; he was busy. By 1300Z, EU signals were loud on 15 and 12M was opening up to EU. On 12m, I logged 4K9W, OM5DP, and OE3GCU, then checked 10M at 1314Z to find YL2SM S7 running 4/4 Yagis and a KW; he was getting very few CQ answers. At 1416Z I found E21EJC in Thailand signing with a station on 28005 CW. Kob was about S5-6 and gave me a '599, very loud' report, what a surprise! Eventually at 1418Z, I had a nice CW run of stations on 10M as far as the Ukraine and as far north as SP and HA and west as PA. After checking 12M to find good signals from RA3CQ and SK2AT. Starting at 1457Z I was able to run Europeans on 10M phone with some having S9+ signals as far west as EI3JS, north to DJ8CG, and east to 9A1HDE. "After a long break, I returned to some of the best late day 12M conditions to EU I can ever remember. Between 1856 and 1933Z, I ran off about 25 EU SSB QSOs including SM5FQQ and six SQ/SPs. Everybody was loud; I never got down to the weak ones until right at the end. Then, a check of 10M yielded a SSB QSO with EC1KR at 1935Z who was S7. "Saturday September 17, the Scandinavian Activity Contest CW started at 1200Z which is only about an hour after sunrise. By 1220Z when I fired up
[DX-NEWS] ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP38 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 24, 2010 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA The autumnal equinox occurred early yesterday, at 0309 UTC on September 23. Conditions were good this week, with sunspots visible every day, and very little geomagnetic activity. Average daily sunspot numbers rose more than 24 points to 40, and average daily solar flux was up nearly five points to 82.9. Solar flux was expected to rise to 88 for September 23-27, but instead it was 84.3 on September 23, and now the forecast for September 24-28 is solar flux three points lower, 85. For September 29-October 5 the solar flux forecast is 84, 82, 82, 82, 80, 78 and 76. Planetary A index for September 24-30 is predicted to be 10, 7, 5, 5, 7, 8 and 5. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions on September 24, quiet conditions September 25-27, quiet to unsettled September 28, and quiet again on September 29-30. Bill Magruder, KD7KST sent in an interesting link showing live aurora from Yellowknife in Canada's Northwest Territories, which is at 62.433 degrees north latitude. Go to http://snipurl.com/15tszs and have a look, after dark, of course. This weekend sun sets in Yellowknife around 0125z and sunrise is at 1334z. Alfio Bonanno, IT9EJW in Italy operates a 10-meter beacon on 28.226 MHz. He reports that for the first time since the beacon was put on the air in 2008, it was heard outside Europe. LW3EX in Buenos Aires, Argentina copied it at 1647z on September 15. Information on the beacon is at http://www.it9ejw.it/beacon.htm. WorldRadio online has a new monthly propagation column from Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, this time with his observations about the rise time for solar cycles compared to the current cycle 24. You can find it at http://www.worldradiomagazine.com/. Dave Ripton, K6SIX of Morris Plains, New Jersey commented about a recent question concerning TVI on six meters. Dave wrote, "In this week's bulletin you mentioned the improvement in 6M TVI. We have to thank the cable, satellite, and fiber optics companies for the reduction in 6M TVI. In my Northern NJ area, roof top TV antennas are rare and the ones that are there are rusted-out so I expect they are no longer used. With Channel 2 gone even indoor 'rabbit ears' are no longer a problem. Also telephone RFI has dropped thanks to the new wireless phone bands. With all the new rigs that included 6M it is a great band for newcomers as well as 6M nuts like myself. Now all we need is some F2 to really bring 6M's back to life". John Ragle, W1ZI of Hadley, Massachusetts wrote "I run 350 watts (peak) output on 50 MHz to a 5 element beam about 30 feet up and about 50 or 60 feet from our house and a neighbor's house. The TV and Internet cable come in on underground fiber optic, and cross the street underground as double-shielded coax. The run from the sill junction box on the house to the interior of the house is with ordinary single-shield coax. I also run about 350 watts (peak) on 2 meters and 90 watts on 70 cm, as well as 100 watts on HF. There is not the slightest hint of TVI in either location...although my wife's sound system (her computer sound card is hooked to an FM radio's audio in) picks up some crackle from the modulation peaks in the 2 meter band". If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good information and tutorials on propagation at http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins. Sunspot numbers for September 16 through 22 were 46, 41, 42, 50, 38, 37, and 26 with a mean of 40. 10.7 cm flux was 82.5, 82.2, 82.1, 81.2, 82.6, 84.6 and 84.8 with a mean of 82.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 8, 4, 4, 4, 6 and 2 with a mean of 3.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 7, 2, 2, 3, 5 and 1 with a mean of 2.9. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to imail...@njdxa.org In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://njdxa.org ---
[DX-NEWS] ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP38 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 18, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA The STEREO mission (Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory) web site shows a new display, in which the Sun is visible via an animated image that rotates to show the whole Sun. The small portion on the Sun's far side--which is not yet visible to the spacecraft--is shown as a dark area. Currently (early Friday, September 18) the animation shows an emerging bright spot, just beyond the direct view from Earth. Check the animation at http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/. The zero degree meridian represents the area closest to Earth, appearing in the center of the solar disk as viewed from Earth. The two 90-degree meridians represent the eastern and western horizon, and of course the 180 degree meridian is directly opposite Earth's view. A full rotation of the Sun relative to Earth takes slightly less than four weeks. The bright spot appears around 120 degrees, or 30 degrees short of the eastern limb, and may represent a new sunspot group. This would be a wonderful event coinciding with the Autumnal Equinox, the first day of Fall, which starts next Tuesday afternoon (September 22) in North America. Helioseismic readings also show an active region in that area, at 30 degrees south latitude. Go to http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/where.shtml to see the current position of the two craft relative to Earth. Eventually they will be 180 degrees relative to each other and 90 degrees relative to Earth. Thursday's prediction shows solar flux values at 70 beginning tomorrow, September 19, and continuing through September 24, then rising to 72 September 25-28. We haven't reported a weekly solar flux average above 70 in this bulletin since Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP020 on May 19, and prior to that there were only four more weeks above 70 in 2009. These predictions are from NOAA and the US Air Force, which also predicts a planetary A index of 8 for September 18, and only 5 from September 19 to more than a month after. Geophysical Institute Prague also predicts nothing but quiet geomagnetic conditions for September 18-24. Steve Jones, N6SJ of Woodside, California hopes to work FT5GA, the Glorioso DXpedition. Glorioso is northwest of Madagascar in the Indian Ocean at approximately 11.5 degrees south latitude, and 47.33 degrees east longitude. The expedition is expected to be on the air until October 5, and you can look at http://www.dxwatch.com/dxped/ft5ga/# to see who is currently working them. >From California, this weekend Steve's best bet may be 20 meters from 2100-2330z, and possibly 1600-1700z with lower signals. If we get some sunspot activity next week, for the following weekend 20 meters looks good 1430-1930z, and then 2100-z. 15 meters with no sunspots looks bad for this weekend, but on the following weekend if there is more solar activity 1900-2130z looks possible. 17 meters looks very good that following weekend, (September 26) 1630-2300z. For September 19, 40 meters is possible 0130-0300z, and the following weekend 2330-0330z, again assuming some solar activity in the days prior. If you live in the Southeast United States, based on projections from Atlanta, your chances look much better than from the West Coast. On both weekends from Atlanta, 40 meters looks good 2230-0230z, and 20 meters on this weekend 1930-2300z, and lasting an hour later on the next weekend. 15 meters looks promising, assuming some sunspots, 1530-1900z on the next weekend. >From Ohio, 20 meters looks good both weekends 1900-2300z, and 40 meters 2200-0330z. Bobby Raymer, N2BR of Cookeville, Tennessee says he enjoys working distant stations despite lack of solar activity. Running 100 watts into a vertical dipole, he usually has better luck with CW than phone. On 17 meters on September 9 he worked OJ0B on CW on Market Reef, and on September 11 using SSB he worked St. Helena Island. He said he works more stations outside the USA than stateside. Dennis Reagin, W7KB of Vail, Arizona was running 10 watts SSB into a portable vertical antenna on September 6 and enjoyed JA0JHA, getting an S8 report, XE1REM who said he was 10 dB over S9, DL8OBQ/PJ2 in Netherlands Antilles, who gave him an S6 report. He notes he is having fun and working distant stations with no sunspots, low power, patience and persistence. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation char
[DX-NEWS] ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP38 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 12, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA A new sunspot, number 1001, emerged on Thursday, September 11. It is actually a single group with two small magnetic disturbances, and we hope not another like the last sunspot, a weak one barely emerging on August 21-22. It was so small that some observatories didn't count it, but it was a Cycle 24 spot. August was much ballyhooed as the first time since 1913 that there was a month or more between the most recent sunspot appearances. Actually it was the first time that a whole calendar month went by with no spots. Of course, this doesn't really mean anything more than any other 30 day period with no spots, because the calendar is based on arbitrary beginnings and endings. The US Air Force predicts a planetary A index for September 12-17 at 5, 8, 20, 12 and 8. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions September 12, unsettled September 13, unsettled to active September 14, unsettled September 15, quiet September 16, quiet to unsettled September 17, and quiet September 18. John Shannon, K3WWP of Kittanning, Pennsylvania has made it a point to work at least one station a day for over 14 years, so far, using QRP CW and simple wire antennas. He notes that although he can work more DX at solar cycle maximum, propagation on a day to day basis is more reliable at solar minimum because it lacks the extreme geomagnetic storms which appear more often during greater solar activity. See his personal page at, http://home.alltel.net/johnshan/. Reg Beck, VE7IG of Williams Lake, British Columbia writes that he had a productive 6 meter summer season, including working 20 JA stations from 0113z-0143z on July 12, and 368 6-meter contacts overall from July 8 through August 16. Reg says propagation is great recently, and he has been running pileups of Europeans in the morning on 20 meter SSB and CW. August 26-29 he worked 41-45 stations a day, then 106 on August 30 and 84 on September 3, all in sessions from 20 minutes to less than an hour. Reg is north of 52 degrees north latitude, far enough north that around the Summer Solstice, sunrise to sunset is 1200z to 0421z. Flavio Archangelo, PY2ZX of Jundiai in northeast Brazil says he has been having good luck with just a 20 meter dipole. Last Saturday, September 6, he worked several EA (Spain) stations around 1830z, then some OZ stations at 2000z. All were loud portable stations working Field Day. Around 1930z he heard DL stations much stronger, also heard HB stations, then signals faded after 2015z, but SM and F stations still heard. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of this bulletin are at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw.html#email. Sunspot numbers for September 4 through 10 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0 with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 65.9, 65.2, 65.8, 66.6, 67.1, 67.1, and 67.2 with a mean of 66.4. Estimated planetary A indices were 33, 7, 7, 8, 8, 6 and 4 with a mean of 10.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 17, 7, 7, 7, 9, 4 and 2 with a mean of 7.6. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to [EMAIL PROTECTED] In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://njdxa.org ---
[DX-NEWS] ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP38 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 14, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA The Sun has been blank, with no visible sunspots, for the past seven days, September 7-13. We may not see another sunspot until September 22, just before the Autumnal Equinox. Thursday evening, September 13, Spaceweather.com (http://www.spaceweather.com) mentioned a coronal wind hitting earth this evening, September 14. The IMF points south, which makes earth vulnerable to solar wind, but other sources don't call for an increase in geomagnetic activity today. We might assume that a solar wind from 27 to 28 days ago could return at this time, based on the rotation of the Sun relative to earth. But looking back four weeks on, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DGD.txt does not reveal any heightened activity. Of course, it could be that the Interplanetary Magnetic field pointed north, protecting earth from the coronal wind. U.S. Air Force Space Weather Operations predict continued quiet geomagnetic conditions, with a planetary A index for September 14 at 8, then 5 every day through September 20. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions September 14-15 and quiet conditions September 16-20. Each month we are checking the Preliminary Report and Forecast of Solar Geophysical Data from NOAA SEC for updates to the forecast for this sunspot cycle. The current edition is at 1671, dated September 12, at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/index.html. Compare the table of predicted smoothed sunspot numbers on page 9 with number 1666 dated August 7. Note the latest forecast has a more pronounced minimum, all centered around March and April 2007. Floyd Clowning, K5LA and Eva Tupis, W2EV sent in some information on PropNET (see http://propnet.org/), the automated network of low power BPSK stations dedicated to detecting propagation paths on 160, 30, 10, 6 and 2 meters, and plotting them on maps. This was mentioned briefly in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP015 about five months ago. The PropNET website has all the information on setting up one of these stations, and of course, you don't have to be a participant to use it. All the data that is generated appears on the web site. One thing PropNET needs is more overseas participation. The network currently gives good propagation indicators in the United States, but could sure use a few stations outside North America. Check the October 2007 issue of QST for an interesting article concerning the bottom of this solar cycle by Steve Ford, WB8IMY. Titled "Waiting for the Sun," Steve gives us ideas on how to best utilize the available propagation when there are few sunspots. Finally, Ken Fletcher of the British DX Club sent in a link to http://www.solarcycle24.com/, a neat site devoted to the current and upcoming sunspot cycles. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for September 6 through 12 were 12, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 with a mean of 1.7. 10.7 cm flux was 66.7, 67.1, 66.6, 66.7, 66.9, 66.1, and 65.9 with a mean of 66.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 12, 6, 2, 2, 2 and 2 with a mean of 5.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 10, 3, 2, 2, 2 and 2, with a mean of 4.1. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP38 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 15, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA The Autumnal Equinox for the Northern Hemisphere will occur on September 23 this year (at 0402z). We've been moving from summertime propagation conditions to fall, which is generally a better time for HF propagation, except for the lack of sporadic-E skip. On 20 meters, instead of intercontinental openings into the evening, we see improved conditions well before dark. For instance, comparing projected conditions for this weekend from the East Coast USA to Europe, with conditions in early July, 20 meters was marginal during the morning and mid-day, but became better late in the day. Conditions between Pennsylvania and Germany around July 5 show a projected jump in signal levels around 2200z, then excellent propagation until around 0700z. But for mid-September 20 meters over the same path has rising signals from morning until early evening, with signals dropping after 2300z. 17 meters over the same path looks very good this weekend from 1230z until 2130z, but for early July the chances of a good path were much lower, except for a brief period around -0030z. Average daily sunspot numbers rose over the past week by 19 points to 44.3. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet every day. For the next week Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for today, September 15, then quiet to unsettled on the 16th, unsettled geomagnetic activity on the 17th and 18th, then quiet on September 19-21. The U.S. Air Force spaceweather operation predicts planetary A index (a measure of geomagnetic activity) for September 15-21 at 5, 10, 12, 15, 8, 5 and 5. Steve Hammer, K6SGH of Santa Barbara, California wrote asking about a source for an archive of daily sunspot numbers that he might import into a spreadsheet. Al Woodhull, N1AW of Amherst, Massachusetts had a similar request. One handy source for this, which is easy to update using this bulletin, is the free Solar Data Plotting software from Scott Craig, WA4TTK. The program stores the daily sunspot number and solar flux going back to the late 1980s in a file called graph.dat. Scott's program is at, http://www.craigcentral.com/sol.asp, and there is also a separate update to the data file with numbers up through the end of August. You can update the file semi-automatically by saving this weekly bulletin in a plain-text file, then using the software to read the file and suck up the data. To bring the current file up to date would only require a file made from this bulletin and another from last week's edition. Al and Steve, mentioned in the previous paragraph, each have their own websites highlighting some of their interesting activities. See Steve's at, http://www.k6sgh.com/, and don't miss his Moxon Antenna site at, http://moxonantennaproject.com/. Al's website is, http://minix1.woodhull.com/asw/. Gary Nixon, WA6HZT of Fair Oaks, California and Andy Gudas, N7TP of Amargosa Valley, Nevada both sent in references to an article claiming that thunderstorms actually affect the ionosphere and radio propagation (other than causing QRN, of course). Read it at, http://www.cnn.com/2006/TECH/space/09/13/space.storms.reut/index.html. Dick Bingham, W7WKR of Stehekin, Washington sent in a quote concerning 160 meters from Wolf Ostwald, DF2PY. Wolf write, "This years West Coast window opened about 3 weeks earlier than in the last years. K7RL and W1YY/7 made it into EU today about 45 min and 25 min prior to local sunrise. Their sigs were fantastic for topband standards, even good enough for 'ragchewing.' I take this as a good omen for the new season and it repeatedly shows again the superiority of the CW mode to master difficult paths under any circumstance." And finally, Bill Isakson, AC6QV of El Cerrito, California wrote this about 17 meters. He writes, "I thought, since you just now indicated a software result that not much should happen above 20 meters, that I should tell you that 17 meter activity has been great recently. Earlier this week I had QSO with a station in San Francisco, Argentina from here in Berkeley near San Francisco, California, for example, on my way home from work around 5 PM, that is, mobile on a Hamstick." Bill continues, "His S9 CW signals were mildly strong and clean in this electrically noisy environment, though mine at his end were weak (559 he said, but I had to make several repeats, so it was probably 539). I would give you his call sign, but my email is nowhere near my logbook. I can say he was a powerhouse station. The 17 meter band has generally been open most of the afternoons here and I have heard VK land as well. The radio I am using for mobile does not have any special filtering in use either, so CW and USB have been through the same set of wide filters." If you would like to make a comment or hav
[DX-NEWS] ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP38 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 9, 2005 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA Last weekend began with a high speed solar wind provoking geomagnetic instability, hence the high A index values. Conditions quieted down after Sunday, but then sunspot 798 returned, which we last saw in August. The spot released several powerful X-class solar flares over the past couple of days, and although not squarely pointed at Earth, glancing blows could cause greater geomagnetic activity. Currently the interplanetary magnetic field points north, which could offer some protection. The forecast for the planetary A index for Friday through Monday, September 9-12 is 25, 20, 10 and 20. Predicted solar flux for the same days is 100 for Friday, September 9, then values around 110 for the following week. A little higher sunspot activity is welcome for the next couple of weeks, as we head toward the Autumnal Equinox, usually a better time for HF propagation. Randy Crews, W7TJ, asked about sunspot and solar flux numbers at the bottom of the solar cycle, which is expected around the end of 2006, or early 2007. Of course, there is enough daily variation that we won't really know when the bottom was until well after it has passed. We only know this for sure when looking at a smoothed curve where daily numbers are averaged over many months. Of course we will see many days, sometimes weeks, with no sunspots at all. Solar flux drops below 70 to a background level, around 67. A typical low period was September and October 1996, in which the average sunspot number was 2.6, and average solar flux was 69.3. Perhaps we'll see these low numbers again about 12-18 months from now. If you would like to comment or have a tip, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. An archive of past bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Sunspot numbers for September 1 through 7 were 24, 28, 14, 12, 12, 12 and 11 with a mean of 16.1. 10.7 cm flux was 79.2, 77.1, 74.2, 74.6, 75, 83.4, and 117, with a mean of 82.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 21, 33, 32, 26, 14, 9 and 15 with a mean of 21.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 24, 20, 18, 9, 6 and 18, with a mean of 15.1. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP38 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 17, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA Solar flux and sunspot numbers rose over the past week. The average daily sunspot number was over 20 points higher than the average for the previous week, to 77.6. The highest sunspot count was 87 on September 10 and 11, and before that, 95 on September 7. The daily solar flux averaged 13 points higher at 119.1, and the highest reading over the past two weeks was 131 on September 9. Predicted solar flux for the near term is 110 for September 17-19, and down to 100 by September 21-22. The predicted planetary A index for the next few days is 20 and 15 for September 17-18, then around 10 for September 19-21. September 22-23 is supposed to be quieter. The higher A index predicted for Friday, September 17 is because of a weak coronal mass ejection. The high A index on September 14 was from a solar flare coming out of sunspot 672 on September 12. Currently sunspot 672 is squarely facing earth. Dick Gird, K6PZE wrote a letter about conditions on 10-meters. He is active on a 10-10 net in Southern California, and reports that check-ins are down to near nothing due to the declining solar cycle. Of course, interest in 10-meters isn't as high as it was during the top of the cycle, when worldwide communication with modest power and antennas ruled the day. But sometimes there are openings on 10-meters when you might not expect it. Even with the low solar activity, the beginning of Fall should yield some openings, even with modest sunspot numbers. If the sunspot number is around 80 for a few days, next week shows good 10-meter propagation possible between Richard's location in San Diego and Chicago, Illinois, for instance. Listen for the 10-meter beacons around 28.2 MHz and above if the band sounds dead, or just give a call using your favorite mode. Don't forget that right on 28.2 MHz the Northern California DX Foundation operates a network of 18 precisely timed and power controlled beacons around the world. A recently updated list of 10-meter beacons can be found on the web at, http://www.ten-ten.org/beacons.html. The Autumnal equinox is less than a week away. This is a good time for HF propagation, as the nights become longer in the northern hemisphere and the hours of daylight are about equal all over the world. Fall begins next Wednesday, September 22 at 1625z. If you would like to comment or have a tip, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Sunspot numbers for September 9 through 15 were 82, 87, 87, 85, 65, 70 and 67 with a mean of 77.6. 10.7 cm flux was 131, 130, 116.4, 114.6, 117.7, 114.7 and 109.6, with a mean of 119.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 5, 6, 4, 8, 28 and 14, with a mean of 9.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 1, 1, 1, 5, 17 and 9, with a mean of 5.3. /EX -- To post a message the subject must begin with [:dx-news:] (all lower case) and sent to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED] --
[DX-News] ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP38 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA September 19, 2003 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP038 ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA Last week's bulletin called for stable geomagnetic conditions over the weekend, which we got. Planetary A indices, a measure of geomagnetic stability for the day, were 11, 11, 7 and 6 for last Friday through Monday, September 12-15. There was a strong solar wind, but a north-pointing interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) kept any destabilizing effects to a minimum. The IMF continued to point north through Sunday, September 14, but then pointed south. This led to the geomagnetic storm and high planetary A index of 37 and 61 on Tuesday and Wednesday, September 16 and 17. The IMF continues to point south, and currently we are entering a stronger solar wind stream. The predicted planetary A index for Friday, September 19 through Monday, September 22 is 35, 25, 20 and 15. For a review of interplanetary magnetic fields, check http://spaceweather.com/glossary/imf.html. Solar flux this week was down and average daily sunspot numbers were up slightly. The sun has appeared nearly blank this week, with any sunspots toward the edge of the disk, not pointing radiation at Earth as spots in the center do. See the solar disk for September 16 to observe a nearly blank sun at http://science.nasa.gov/spaceweather/images2003/16sep03/midi512_blank.gif. You can substitute the date in the URL to see what the sun was like on other days. Solar flux was lowest in the past couple of weeks at 94.4 on Friday, September 12. Recent daily sunspot numbers were lowest on September 10 at 42. As the solar cycle declines over the next couple of years, we will eventually see long periods with sunspot counts of zero. The last really long period where this was observed was at or near the bottom of the last sunspot cycle. For 38 days, from September 13 until October 20, 1996 there were no visible sunspots. The daily sunspot number was zero for that entire time. During that period, the daily solar flux was below 70 nearly the entire time. The lowest was 66.4 on October 11, 1996. Now this week and the week prior we've observed nine consecutive days when the daily solar flux was below 100. There is nothing particularly significant about 100, but we humans notice nice even numbers like this, kind of like waiting and watching for that car odometer to turn over from 99,999 to 100,000 miles. But this nine-day period seems significant, because the last time we had this many days in a row with a solar flux value below 100 was back in 1998, from May 19-31, with 13 continuous days. This was way over on the other side of the peak of cycle 23. Recently this bulletin looked at a prediction for the minimum of the current sunspot cycle. Read about prediction methods used to determine long-term trends in solar cycles at http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/predict.htm. Note that the fall equinox is in a few days, and this is a good time for worldwide DX on the HF bands, even with the low solar activity. Solar flux is currently rising as we progress toward the equinox around September 23, next Tuesday. The current solar flux forecast for the short term shows flux values of 110 for September 19-21, and 115 for September 22-23. Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, advises that the Space Environment Center (SEC) in Boulder, Colorado, recently introduced a new operational product to assess the impact of geomagnetic field activity on the F region. It's called the STORM Time Empirical Ionospheric Model. It provides--in real-time--an F region critical frequency (foF2) scaling factor due to geomagnetic field activity that can be applied to the quiet time foF2 value. The scaling factors are expressed as percentages above or below the quiet time values, and thus can be applied to the MUF output of your favorite propagation software. The model uses the previous 33 hours of geomagnetic field activity as its driver, indicating that the F region doesn't necessarily respond immediately to elevated K indices. Check out http://sec.noaa.gov/storm for the current plot, historical plots of significant geomagnetic storms, and a discussion of how the model was developed and validated. For more information on propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the Propagation page on the ARRL Web site, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Sunspot numbers for September 11 through 17 were 55, 58, 57, 58, 68, 89 and 83, with a mean of 66.9. 10.7 cm flux was 96.7, 94.4, 96.1, 94.7, 97.3, 99.3 and 105.9, with a mean of 97.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 15, 11, 11, 7, 6, 37 and 61, with a mean of 21.1. /EX -- Subscribe/unsubscribe, feedback, FAQ, problems, etc DX-NEWS http://njdxa.org/dx-news DX-CHAT: http://njdxa.org/dx-chat To post a message, DX NEWS
