[DX-NEWS] ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP07 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 15, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA Low levels of solar activity continue, the same as the past few weeks. Sunspot numbers remain remarkably consistent, with average daily numbers for the four reporting weeks since January 17 at 56.4, 55.7, 50.7 and finally 51.3 for the past week. As you can see, average daily sunspot numbers rose less than a point from the previous week to the past week. Average daily solar flux receded 2.4 points to 104. Geomagnetic conditions remain calm. The ARRL International DX CW Contest is this weekend. Conditions will probably be about the same as last year, because solar activity is about the same as this time in 2012. See http://www.arrl.org/arrl-dx for contest details. The latest prediction for solar flux shows values of 100 for February 15-16, 105 on February 17-19, 100 on February 20-22, 115 on February 23-24, 110 and 105 on February 25-26, 100 on February 27 through March 3, 95 on March 4-9,115 on March 10 and 120 on March 11-13. The predicted planetary A index is 5 on February 15-20, 9 on February 21-22, 8 on February 23, 5 on February 24-28, then 10 and 8 on March 1-2, and 5 on March 3-17. Every week F.K. Janda, OK1HH gives us his thoughts on geomagnetic conditions over the next few weeks. Generally for HF propagation, particularly for the higher bands (10-20 meters) we would like to see very little geomagnetic activity, but with as many sunspots and as much solar flux as possible. We have seen a lot of quiet geomagnetic conditions over the past few years, but not much in the way of sunspots or high solar flux values. OK1HH suggests the geomagnetic field will be quiet to unsettled on February 15-16, quiet on February 17-21, quiet to active February 22, active to disturbed February 23, mostly quiet February 24-25, quiet February 26-28, quiet to unsettled March 1, quiet to active March 2, mostly quiet March 3, quiet to unsettled March 4, quiet March 5-6, mostly quiet March 7-8, quiet March 9, and quiet to active on March 10. Don't miss the article in the March issue of QST, by Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA titled "The Sun and the Ionosphere." It begins on page 48, gives an update on Cycle 24, and discusses measuring the Sun and ionosphere and relating solar flux to MUF, or Maximum Usable Frequency. Neil Shapiro, W2NLS of Bethpage, which is on New York's Long Island, asked about relating the information in these bulletins to practical on-the-air results. I suggested checking out the resources listed at the bottom of each bulletin, from the ARRL Technical Information Service and also the resources from the K9LA website. One useful tool is to download the free program W6ELprop (which works on the Windows operating system) from http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/. You will need to enter your latitude and longitude for your default station location, and a useful tool for converting street addresses to geographical coordinates is at http://www.latlong.net/convert-address-to-lat-long.html. You can use an average of the previous 5 days sunspot numbers from here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt For the K index, either use the latest Middle Latitude numbers from here: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt Or use the planetary number from WWV: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/wwv.txt I ran the numbers for Neil on February 15, from his QTH to the Czech Republic. It looks like 15 meters is a good bet from 1430-1700z, 17 meters 1330-1800z, and 20 meters over the same period as 17 meters, but stronger signals on 17 meters (assuming power levels and antennas are equal). It looks like 30 meters should open up around 1800z, and have strongest signals 2130-0100z, and 40 meters 2000-1000z, with best signals around 2230-0630z. An alternative to sunspot numbers would be to use solar flux. You can set W6ELprop to default to either type, or change it on the fly by entering F103 (for example) as solar flux of 103, or S66 as sunspot number of 66. The engine used for driving W6ELprop was originally designed to work with the predicted smoothed sunspot number for the month, and it doesn't really work well to try to use the latest day's numbers. So an average for the past 5 days is a compromise. Another useful tool is a new one from Stu Phillips, K6TU of Woodside, California: http://k6tu.net/. This one is interesting. You subscribe to this service (but I think there is a free trial) and tell it what kind of prediction you want to run, then after making the calculations, it emails a link that you use to display them. For each band, you can step through hour-by-hour to see maps showing where your signals will be strongest, with different colors used to express different signal levels. It is interesting to see how the coverage areas shift, hour-by-hour. We h
[DX-NEWS] ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP07 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 17, 2012 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA We are over half way through the winter season, and today, February 17 is 58 days after the winter solstice. Propagation should improve as we approach the vernal equinox on March 20, which is just 32 days from now. Solar activity is still in the temporary doldrums, with sunspot numbers below 100. But the weekly average of daily sunspot numbers rose this week by over 15 points to 55.6. There was a geomagnetic storm on Wednesday, February 15 (UTC). Early in the UTC day (Tuesday night in North America) the planetary K index went to 5, and planetary A index was 22. The College A index in Fairbanks was estimated at 46, which is quite high. The disturbance was probably from a CME a few days earlier. Aurora in North America was seen as far south as Minnesota. The latest forecast has solar flux about 65 points lower than last month's prediction for the ARRL International CW DX Contest this weekend. Latest predicted flux values are 105 on February 17-18, 100 on February 19, 110 on February 20-21, 115 on February 22-26, 110 on February 27-29, and 105 on March 1-3. The predicted flux values go back to 115 on March 14-16 and again on March 20-24. Predicted planetary A index for February 17-19 is 5, 8, and 8, then 5 on February 20 through March 1. This just in, the latest sunspot cycle prediction from NASA, and it doesn't look good: http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml. Two weeks ago NASA released a revised prediction stating the cycle should peak in late 2013 at a smoothed sunspot number of 96. The latest outlook estimates a peak in early 2013 at 63, about 35 percent lower than the prediction from two weeks ago. We hope it isn't true. Tom Little, WA9BOT is in EM57 in West Frankfort, Illinois. He reports: "On Wednesday, January 25, 2012, I heard a couple of 6 meter QSOs. While I heard no call signs, I was able to determine the stations were in New Mexico and Florida. They were using 50.165 MHz. I heard another QSO at 50.150 MHz, but could not pick up a call sign as what I heard was only one side of the QSO. I am new to 6 meters. Just recently put up a 5 element beam. I am waiting for a good opening." Thanks, Tom. N5TM, Dan Bates lives in Katy, Texas, and wrote: "ZL1RS was loud into south Texas on 50.105 starting around 0230 on February 8, and lasted for about an hour. I personally worked Bob three times, twice on CW and once on SSB. He also worked WD5IYT, and many others... At times he was S9." That's loud! Jon Jones, N0JK writes: "FK8CP had an extensive opening on 50 MHz to the Midwest February 12. States hearing/working Remi included AR, CA, IA, IL, IN, KS, MI, MO, MS NE, OH, OK, and TX. This was an Es link to TEP opening. FK8CP peaked up to 5x9 in KS and OH between 0200-0220 UTC February 13." In last week's bulletin there was a URL linking to an old newspaper article which blamed a plane crash on solar activity. Unfortunately, the ampersands in this long URL were dropped in the email version, and on the copy in the bulletin archive listed toward the end of this bulletin, so the link did not work. Try this one: http://www.arrl.org/news/the-k7ra-solar-update-204. The link is in the last paragraph of the bulletin. Another article on solar activity appeared in the popular press this week. See http://raleightelegram.com/20120216846. Of course, not all articles about solar activity in the popular press are accurate. Leave it to Britain's Fleet Street tabloids to make normal solar activity sound like the end of the world. Of course, the sun is massive and the amount of energy involved in solar events is huge, but check the headline for this article: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2100082/. You'll note that these journalists reserve the right side of paper for the really substantial news. Note they get their information from the Spaceweather website, but check the archive at http://spaceweather.com/ in the upper right corner, dialing back to February 11. Yes, the sunspot doubled in size, twice actually. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good information and tutorials on propagation at http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending
[DX-NEWS] ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP07 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 18, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA A dramatic surge in solar activity is underway, with a level of sunspot numbers and solar flux not seen since 2005-2006. Tuesday's sunspot number of 100 has not been equaled or exceeded since April 6, 2006 when it was 105. On Wednesday the solar flux was 114.1, and the last time it was that high or higher was September 15, 2005 at 119.4. Average daily sunspot numbers rose this week by more than 25 points to 69.9, and average daily solar flux was up 20 points to 103.5. NOAA/USAF predicts solar flux at 110 on February 18-19, 105 on February 20, 100 on February 21, and 105 on February 22-24. Planetary A index is predicted at 25 and 12 on February 18-19, and 5 on February 20-28, then rising to 7, 10, 10 and 7 on March 1-4. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts active conditions on February 18, unsettled to active February 19, unsettled February 20, quiet to unsettled February 21, and quiet conditions February 22-24. This weekend is the ARRL International DX CW Contest, and Bob Marston, K6TW notes that a geomagnetic storm is predicted for Friday, just before the start of the contest. This is due to two coronal mass ejections, one on February 13 at 1735z, and the other on February 15 at 0156z. A CME hit Earth's magnetic field at 0100z today, February 18, but was not as strong as expected. It is possible we may be spared major geo-storms. However, there is a new alert from Solar Storm Watch of an expected CME direct hit at 0900z on February 18. The planetary K index on February 18 at 0300, 0600 and 0900z was 3, 4 and 5. Most of the activity this week has been from large sunspot group 1158, which will soon rotate out of view over the Sun's western limb. More centrally positioned is sunspot 1161, and there seems to be a new sunspot emerging above it. It is probably significant that USAF/NOAA revised the solar flux estimate upward for the near term between Wednesday's and Thursday's prediction. K6TW introduced us to a resource for updates on solar activity, http://www.solarstormwatch.com, and specifically a Twitter resource, which you can read without a Twitter account at http://twitter.com/solarstormwatch. Fred Honnold, KH7Y of Ocean View, Hawaii (south part of the big island of Hawaii) has a report of some 10 meter longpath to Europe propagation on February 14. "I wanted to let you know about some excellent long path QSO last night from 0923 till 1055. The bands were still alive but it was 1AM here and I just quit. Signal levels on 15 meters from the KW stations were S8 or so on 12 meters the signals were still strong so after working about 100 stations on 12 meters I moved to 10 meters. I worked many European stations with signals S1 to S5. The best signals were from EA1DR S9+ and S57S very loud." You can see the spots by going to DX Sherlock at http://www.vhfdx.info/spots. Just select 28 MHz, February 14 from 1000z to 1059z, containing the callsign KH7Y, set maximum number of returned QSOs at 100, then Submit Query. An article on the ARRL web site about sunspot 1158 and this week's activity mentions that "According to NASA, the Sun will reach its next maximum this year, give or take one year." I don't think this is true, as the latest prediction for the next solar maximum is in 2013. If you check a recent Preliminary Report and Forecast at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1849.pdf, look on page 10 and note that the highest smoothed sunspot number in the near future is 90, predicted for February through July 2013. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good information and tutorials on propagation at http://mysite.ncnetwork.net/k9la/index.html. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins. Sunspot numbers for February 10 through 16 were 38, 54, 63, 84, 90, 100, and 60, with a mean of 69.9. 10.7 cm flux was 91.4, 91.2, 95.6, 106.8, 112.6, 112.8 and 114.1 with a mean of 103.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 4, 2, 10, 5 and 2 with a mean of 4.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 3, 2, 1, 6, 4 and 1 with a mean of 3. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this lis
[DX-NEWS] ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP07 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 19, 2010 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA We've now observed sunspots continuously for the past 30 days, certainly a turnaround from the quiet conditions of the past few years. In fact, in ten weeks we have seen only three days with no sunspots, on December 25, January 6 and January 19. This is a little over 4% no-sunspot days, a nice contrast with all of 2009, with over 71% days with no sunspots. Sunspot group 1049 emerged on Wednesday, and it is growing. The minimum non-zero sunspot number is 11. This is because the numbers are derived from the number of sunspot groups, plus areas inside the groups. Each group counts for 10, so the minimum sunspot number is 11, and the minimum sunspot number for at least two sunspot groups is 22. In 2009 only 87 days (23.8%) had sunspot numbers greater than 11, and 21 of those days were in December. Only 43 days (11.8%) had a sunspot number greater than 15 (14 of those in December), and only 26 days in 2009 had a sunspot number of 23 or more (none had 22). Since the first of the year, average weekly sunspot numbers were 14.6, 26.4, 18.6, 28, 14.6, 43.3, and 38.7. This weekend is the ARRL International CW DX Contest, and there is every reason to expect continued good conditions. Predicted planetary A index for today, February 19 is 10, followed by 5 for the next week. Solar flux for February 19-25 is predicted at 85, 85, 84, 84, 82, 80 and 78. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions for February 19, and quiet conditions February 20-25. The wonderful STEREO tool at http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/ disappeared about a week ago, and hasn't been seen since. Server problems, I am told, but the folks at NASA who work on the STEREO project say it is out of their hands. They keep expecting it to return in the next 24-48 hours, but it hasn't yet. At http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/browse/2010/02/19/ you can see current images from the program, and note that the end of that URL is a date, which you can change to see images from different days. We just don't get to see that marvelous and very useful spinning Sun animation. The http://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/beacon_insitu.shtml page also has links to data, but I don't pretend to know what much of it means. Next Thursday, February 25 images from the STEREO spacecraft will achieve 88% coverage of the Sun. Many emails have been coming in this week about a new application for the iPhone that gives real-time views of the Sun from STEREO, and will even alert users if a significant event is taking place. It is called "3D Sun," and you can find out more about it at http://3dsun.org/ and also in an article at http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2010/17feb_3dsun.htm?list1066509. Another propagation related iPhone app was released last year, which you can peruse at, http://spaceweather.usu.edu/htm/news/featured-activities/articleID=8323. We have some new links this week for those who like to monitor ionospheric sounders, or ionosondes. For an introduction, see http://ngdc.noaa.gov/ionosonde/. Check out http://ngdc.noaa.gov/ionosonde/real_time/ for a geographic view of ionosonde stations and access to their real time data. Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA sent a link to an article from 2007 summarizing what must be all the known predictions for the current sunspot Cycle 24. See it at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/SC24/May_24_2007_table.pdf and note the last page for a colorful representation of the range of predictions. There is a new article on helioseismology this week in Science Daily. See it at, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/02/100215100517.htm. Angel Santana, WP3GW of Trujillo Alto, Puerto Rico had fun on PSK31 on February 15. At 1500 UTC he heard on 2 meters that 12 meters was active. Then he went to 15 meters where he heard Western Europe and the Caribbean. Many PSK31 signals on 20 meters, then at 1700 UTC worked EI3GBS and 9H4N on 17 meters. Angel wrote, "At 2000 UTC went to 10 meters and heard USA! (Absent for some months.) Began to call on 28.465 and K4KV answered at 2012. He told me he was listening via backscatter, and I told him my antenna was pointing to Africa/Europe and he was booming in. Then went to 40 meters at 2245 UTC and worked 9A3AGS from the island of Brak. And heard the band so crowded we say here in Spanish, 'esta Esplaya!' coined by Fernando, KP3AH." Check out Angel's personalized page at QRZ.COM at, http://www.qrz.com/db/wp3gw. Jim Puryear, N5TSP at EM00xf in Austin, Texas wrote, "On Feb. 13 at 0300Z I noted Es propagation from XE1 on 10 and 6 meters coming into central Texas. Then heard VK2APG on 28.485 calling CQ and made a quick QSO with signals about 55 each way. I imagine this may have been an Es hop to XE1 followed by F2 to VK--a pleasant
[DX-NEWS] ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP07 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 13, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA Sunspots returned this week, or one did, but it is an old Cycle 23 spot. Sunspot 1012 has been visible the last couple of days, February 11-12. It is down near the Sun's equator, which is typical for spots from a previous cycle. Nice to have a sunspot, but it doesn't indicate activity from the new Cycle 24, which has been so eerily quiet. We saw a few days this week when the geomagnetic activity was very, very low. Look at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt and note all the zeroes from February 8-10 in both the middle latitude and high latitude numbers. We could see some geomagnetic activity this weekend due to energy from a solar wind stream. The predicted planetary A index from NOAA for February 13-19 is 5, 10, 15, 10, 5, 5 and 5. Geophysical Institute Prague sees slightly earlier activity, with quiet on February 13, unsettled February 14, quiet to unsettled February 15, and quiet February 16-19. If we get at least a few days that have a sunspot number of 11 (this is the minimum non-zero sunspot number), it makes a difference in the MUF of many paths. For instance, with no sunspots, the projected path from Philadelphia to France for today shows MUF values every half hour from 1500-1900z as 17.7, 18.2, 18.5, 18.6, 18.5, 18.4, 17.4, 16.5 and 15.4 MHz. With a sunspot number of 11 for several days, the MUF values change to 19.4, 20, 20.1, 20.1, 20, 19.5, 18.3, 17.3 and 16.2 MHz. Over the same path, with no sunspots over the same time period the odds of communication on 17 meters would be 25-50% at 1500z, 50-75% at 1530-1730z, 25-50% at 1800z, and less than 25% at 1830-1900z. With a sunspot number of 11 for several days, the same Philadelphia to France path would have odds of success on 17 meters of 75-100% from 1500-1700z, 50-75% at 1730-1800z, 25-50% at 1830z, and less than 25% at 1900z. Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP006 contained a comment about 10-meter propagation, and that Great Britain used a system operating from 30-50 MHz in the World War II era for over-the-horizon radar, known as Chain Home. This brought an interesting email from Brett Graham, VR2BG about Chain Home, and later HF OTH radar systems. Brett says Chain Home operated on 20-30 MHz. For images of Chain Home antenna towers, look at, http://static.panoramio.com/photos/original/5004131.jpg, http://static.panoramio.com/photos/original/5173635.jpg and http://tinyurl.com/dx3h38. You can watch an online video of Brett explaining the history of OTH radar and modern uses at a multimedia messaging server at, mms://max-server.net/2008_vr2bg. Just click on that link, or paste it into your web browser's URL field without the usual http at the front. This was recorded at the 2008 Asia-Pacific DX Convention in November in Osaka, Japan. Many of us recall the Russian Woodpecker OTH system of past years, and the huge amount of QRM it generated all over the HF spectrum. Check out some photos of those systems at, http://www.techblog.tomksoft.com/data/duga-3/receiver-antenna.jpg, http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Yaoe2Ha8Lpk/SFHwGDeOQGI/BVs/oUCKSlQsjPI/s3 20/Duga3.jpg and http://www.techblog.tomksoft.com/data/duga-3/antennas.jpg. I believe at least one of those images is from inside the Chernobyl exclusion zone. Brett comments on the video that it took a lot of electrical power to drive those huge arrays. On the video Brett gives a great deal of information concerning current HF OTH systems operated by different countries, and the type of threat they present to HF communications. Joe Schroeder, W9JUV of Glenview, Illinois sent this memory of Chain Home signals after World War II: "N6TP's comment on Chain Home radar really brought back memories! I was a newly minted ham in 1946 and when 10 (the only HF band the military had released for ham use!) opened to Europe in the fall we used the Chain Home buzz on the high end of the band to judge band conditions to Europe. I was using a home made two element Yagi roped to the top of the chimney and 50 watts to an 807. When the FCC gave us the 27 Mc band we'd sometimes work Europe duplex by calling CQ continuously on 11 and announcing 'Tuning 28.3 to 28.4 for any calls.'" He continues, "My 807 and I had 52 countries worked when I finally went high power with a rebuilt pre-WWII amp running a pair of TZ-40s. Heady days for a young high school kid!" Richard Weil, KW0U of St. Paul, Minnesota wrote to tell us about working DX with a modest station. He has a half-wave 20 meter dipole in the attic of his condo, and runs around 100 watts. He wrote, "On 31 January at 2310Z I was listening on 14.247 when BX5AA, Jimmy in Taiwan, came in clear. We had a solid 2-minute QSO. Checking later I realized we were right on the greyline--my s
[DX-NEWS] ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP07 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 15, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA No sunspots appeared this week. Solar flux was about the same as last week. The 45-day outlook for solar flux and planetary A index from NOAA and the Air Force (see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html) on February 10 was predicting a flat solar flux of 70. Then the following day this was revised to show 72 for February 12-18, then 70 after that. On February 12 this changed to show 72 solar flux for February 13 through the rest of the 45 days. February 10-13 we saw increased geomagnetic activity due to another solar wind stream. The planetary A index, calculated from a number of mostly higher latitude magnetometers, was 18, 17, 11 and 12 over those four days. Alaska's college A index, measured near Fairbanks, was 42, 31, 22 and 26, illustrating the increased geomagnetic activity toward the poles in response to space weather. Here at mid-latitudes, where many of us live, the A index (measured in Virginia) was 13, 16, 6 and 10. That magnetometer is near 38.3 degrees north latitude, which is a little south and of course way east of the Boulder site (at 40.1 degrees north latitude), where we get the K and A index reported on WWV. Jon Jones, N0JK of Wichita, Kansas reports some February E-skip openings on 6 meters. He writes, "Es tend to become scarce in February, and March has the lowest occurrence of Es of any month." On February 2 he worked XE2YWB in Central Mexico (DL82) at 2237z on 50.125 MHz with S7 signals. The next day he worked K4EU in Virginia via E-skip on 10 meters. K4EU reported working stations throughout the Midwest that day. Ed Swynar, VE3CUI of Newcastle, Ontario took issue with a statement in last week's bulletin about the absence of sunspots being great for 160 meters. He comments, "Such mythology could not be further from the truth this year. The band has been MOST unremarkable this season, to say the least, and it continues to languish away in the doldrums. I thought that perhaps it was something at fault at my end, however, many subscribers to W4ZV's Topband Reflector seem to be of the same opinion." Readers have sent similar reports about both 160 and 75 meters over the past year. It seems that low geomagnetic and sunspot activity should be good for the lower frequencies, but perhaps it is not always the case. Over the past week many, many emails arrived from readers with a link to an article in a daily business publication claiming that we are on the verge of another Maunder Minimum, a decades-long period of little or no sunspot activity that occurred roughly between the years 1640 to 1710. The article appeared with no byline, and it quoted Dr. Kenneth Tapping, of the Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics in Penticton, British Columbia. This is the observatory that supplies our daily solar flux values. But I thought the quotes sounded a little strange, and not like Ken. Some readers also felt this way. As one wrote, "The article didn't quite ring true," and "I have a fairly broad scientific reading list." I sent an email to Ken, who responded that this has been a difficult week for him. A few weeks ago he received a phone call from a woman who engaged him in "a long discussion involving possibilities ranging from likely to not likely." He wrote that the article promotes something that is untrue, and "in no way do I support the conclusions she assigned to me." I think we can relax about any possible upcoming 70-year period of a quiet Sun. We cannot say that it could not happen, but in fact there is nothing unusual about the current solar cycle minimum, and really no known method of predicting such a period. This weekend is the ARRL International DX CW Contest. The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet. Last weekend I watched an interesting DVD from the local library, a 1994 documentary titled "Picture of Light." This has some nice time-lapse long-exposure moving images of Aurora, taken in Churchill, Manitoba, on Hudson Bay above 58 degrees north latitude. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for February 7 through 13 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 70.8, 70.9, 72.2, 72.6, 72.1, 72.1, and 70.5 with a mean of 71.6. Est
[DX-NEWS] ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP07 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 15, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA This bulletin is out a day early. Look for the next bulletin on Friday, February 23. The sunspot number is currently 0, and the sun appears spotless, at least from this side. A week ago, helioseismic holography detected a spot on the far side of the sun, but whether it will fade away before reaching our side is unknown. Currently a solar wind is causing geomagnetic instability here on Earth, and the mid-latitude K index is 5 at 0600z on February 15. This week brought a couple of messages about propagation software. Both noted that this bulletin frequently mentions W6ELprop. This is because it is easy to use and free, as well as being easily available. Each mentioned their favorite propagation software, and wondered why it hasn't been mentioned here. Steve Hammer, K6SGH of Santa Barbara, California suggested VOAProp from Julian Moss, G4ILO. This is Windows freeware and serves as a front end or shell for the free VOACAP software. To run VOAProp, you download the setup file from, http://www.g4ilo.com/voaprop.html. As you install VOAProp, it directs the user to the VOACAP download site. When executing the VOACAP setup file, it is best to let it install in its default installation directory right at the root of the hard drive (C:\). The web site has instructions for using VOAProp, and the first thing you'll want to do is set it up with your own latitude and longitude. Then you click on the Solar Data button, and let it download the predicted smoothed sunspot number for the month, in addition to current data from WWV. Then you can set up the month and year, and if you want, you can easily reset it for sunspot numbers higher or lower than the current one, to try out different scenarios. The program has a nice map display, and above it are buttons for each of the 9 HF amateur bands, plus 160 meters. Yes, it does include 160 meters, as well as 60 meters and the so-called WARC bands at 12, 17 and 30 meters. Click a band-button, and it displays a contour map showing what signals should be like in all directions from your location. These are similar to contour maps showing elevation for terrain, or weather maps that display contoured areas for temperature or barometric pressure. You can also see a 24-hour graph of probable signal levels between you and any particular location. Just click on the map to draw a line from you to any spot. You then click on Show Chart to bring up the graph. K6SGH has his own useful resources on the web. Go to, http://www.k6sgh.com/ and look for a link to the Moxon Antenna Project, where you can find plans for simple but effective homebrew gain antennas based on designs by the late Les Moxon, G6XN. Thomas Otterbein, DG8FBV was the other person who wrote, and he suggested WinCap Wizard from Jim Tabor, KU5S, which is also based on VOACAP. We'll try to get to that soon, but in the meantime check out the KU5S software at, http://www.taborsoft.com/. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for February 8 through 14 were 22, 11, 11, 0, 0, 0 and 0 with a mean of 6.3. 10.7 cm flux was 78.4, 76.7, 75.9, 74.7, 73.6, 72.7, and 72.7, with a mean of 75. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 3, 2, 7, 17 and 18 with a mean of 8.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 3, 2, 1, 4, 13 and 16, with a mean of 6.4. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP07 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 15, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA This bulletin is out a day early. Look for the next bulletin on Friday, February 23. The sunspot number is currently 0, and the sun appears spotless, at least from this side. A week ago, helioseismic holography detected a spot on the far side of the sun, but whether it will fade away before reaching our side is unknown. Currently a solar wind is causing geomagnetic instability here on Earth, and the mid-latitude K index is 5 at 0600z on February 15. This week brought a couple of messages about propagation software. Both noted that this bulletin frequently mentions W6ELprop. This is because it is easy to use and free, as well as being easily available. Each mentioned their favorite propagation software, and wondered why it hasn't been mentioned here. Steve Hammer, K6SGH of Santa Barbara, California suggested VOAProp from Julian Moss, G4ILO. This is Windows freeware and serves as a front end or shell for the free VOACAP software. To run VOAProp, you download the setup file from, http://www.g4ilo.com/voaprop.html. As you install VOAProp, it directs the user to the VOACAP download site. When executing the VOACAP setup file, it is best to let it install in its default installation directory right at the root of the hard drive (C:\). The web site has instructions for using VOAProp, and the first thing you'll want to do is set it up with your own latitude and longitude. Then you click on the Solar Data button, and let it download the predicted smoothed sunspot number for the month, in addition to current data from WWV. Then you can set up the month and year, and if you want, you can easily reset it for sunspot numbers higher or lower than the current one, to try out different scenarios. The program has a nice map display, and above it are buttons for each of the 9 HF amateur bands, plus 160 meters. Yes, it does include 160 meters, as well as 60 meters and the so-called WARC bands at 12, 17 and 30 meters. Click a band-button, and it displays a contour map showing what signals should be like in all directions from your location. These are similar to contour maps showing elevation for terrain, or weather maps that display contoured areas for temperature or barometric pressure. You can also see a 24-hour graph of probable signal levels between you and any particular location. Just click on the map to draw a line from you to any spot. You then click on Show Chart to bring up the graph. K6SGH has his own useful resources on the web. Go to, http://www.k6sgh.com/ and look for a link to the Moxon Antenna Project, where you can find plans for simple but effective homebrew gain antennas based on designs by the late Les Moxon, G6XN. Thomas Otterbein, DG8FBV was the other person who wrote, and he suggested WinCap Wizard from Jim Tabor, KU5S, which is also based on VOACAP. We'll try to get to that soon, but in the meantime check out the KU5S software at, http://www.taborsoft.com/. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for February 8 through 14 were 22, 11, 11, 0, 0, 0 and 0 with a mean of 6.3. 10.7 cm flux was 78.4, 76.7, 75.9, 74.7, 73.6, 72.7, and 72.7, with a mean of 75. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 4, 3, 2, 7, 17 and 18 with a mean of 8.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 3, 2, 1, 4, 13 and 16, with a mean of 6.4. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP07 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 17, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers this week rose over 7 points to 9, but this doesn't mean much. Check out http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt to see how many days with a blank sun were noted over the last thirty days. Plan on seeing even longer stretches of 0 sunspots over the next year. A couple of years from now we should see a new cycle 24 rising faster than this old one declined. Check out a great website showing sketches of sunspots drawn in 1612 by Galileo Galilei, http://galileo.rice.edu/sci/observations/sunspot_drawings.html. The coolest part is the arrangement of the sketches into a sort of flip-book animation, which you can view with any media player such as Windows Media Player or Apple QuickTime. This gives us a reproduction of what the sun was doing over the 35 days that Galileo made these sketches. What a remarkable thing. The ARRL International DX CW Contest is on for this weekend. Sunspot 854 is pointing straight at us, but it is tiny. For an idea of the relative area covered by this spot, check the web site mentioned in the first paragraph above, and look at the Sunspot Area shown in the fourth column, relative to sunspot area in January. Look for sunspot numbers and solar flux to rise only slightly, if at all, and for quiet geomagnetic conditions. Sunday, February 19 should give us only slightly unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Based on the previous solar rotation, Wednesday, February 22 looks like it may show some fairly active geomagnetic conditions. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts slightly different conditions, with February 19 unsettled to active, and February 21 and 22 just unsettled. They think today and tomorrow, February 17 and 18, will be quiet. They predict quiet to unsettled conditions for February 20 and 23. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Sunspot numbers for February 9 through 15 were 24, 13, 11, 0, 0, 0 and 15 with a mean of 9. 10.7 cm flux was 74.8, 75.2, 76, 76, 76.3, 77.3, and 78.5, with a mean of 76.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 2, 2, 6, 3, 2, 1 and 12 with a mean of 4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 2, 4, 2, 2, 1 and 7, with a mean of 2.9. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP07 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 18, 2005 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA Conditions improved this week over last. The average daily sunspot number rose nearly 34 points to 75.1, and the geomagnetic indices were down over the week. The geomagnetic field may become more active, and for February 18-20 the planetary A index is predicted at 20, 20 and 15. The major sunspot group affecting us this week will soon move off the visible solar disk, but there is a small sunspot group on the other side of the sun. Conditions should be fair to good for the ARRL International DX CW Contest this weekend. Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA has an interesting and useful propagation column in the March 2005 issue of WorldRadio. With ionosonde data he demonstrates how daily variations in solar flux have little effect on the MUF. Instead, propagation is better predicted with a smoothed sunspot number applied to seasonal variations. For instance, this afternoon when I wanted a feeling for when 15 and 17 meters would still be open toward various locations, it was better to use W6ELprop with an average of sunspot numbers for the previous five days rather than today's solar flux. You can get the recent sunspot numbers from http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt, and download W6ELprop from http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/. This afternoon I went out to the car to do some 17 meter mobile work. Geomagnetic indices were low and the band was good. I had a nice CW chat with KG0TS in Des Moines, Iowa, and then worked 9Y4/YL2GM in Tobago on SSB. Juris was in the Caribbean getting ready for the DX contest from 9Y4W this weekend. If you would like to comment or have a tip, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Sunspot numbers for February 10 through 16 were 63, 73, 72, 73, 115, 69 and 61 with a mean of 75.1. 10.7 cm flux was 114.1, 114.1, 116.4, 115.5, 118.1, 121.7 and 112.8, with a mean of 116.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 17, 11, 5, 4, 5, 5 and 13 with a mean of 8.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 11, 7, 3, 2, 4, 1 and 8, with a mean of 5.1. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-News] ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP07 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 7 ARLP007 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA February 13, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP007 ARLP007 Propagation de K7RA Solar flux and sunspot numbers were up slightly this week, and average planetary A index was down a little. Unfortunately, this isn't likely a trend, at least over the long term. The NOAA SEC Preliminary Report and Forecast for February 10 (at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1484.pdf) still shows us a few years past the peak of Cycle 23 and a few years until the bottom. These charts are on pages 13 and 14. Note the forecast still shows the 10.7 cm solar flux minimum (a measure of energy at 2.8 GHz) predicted for September 2006 through April 2007, and the sunspot number minimum around December 2006 through January 2007. Note that a year from now we might see half the sunspots we see now, and the next cycle isn't predicted to be back to the February 2005 level until the end of 2007. These are all guesses based on past cycles, and the numbers are smoothed using a moving average. We won't know when the cycle minimum occurred until several years after it has passed. Over the next few days expect solar flux to stay around 110, then gradually decline toward 100, where it should stay until around February 22. Due to a coronal hole and a solar wind stream, geomagnetic conditions should remain unsettled to active. Mike Caughran, KL7R asked about lousy 40 and 80 meter conditions in Alaska during periods of high geomagnetic activity. He has never been active during a complete solar cycle, but recalls years ago as a Novice working 80 meter CW all night long under quiet conditions. (Note that at his QTH in Juneau, tonight will be 15 hours long and around Christmas, it was nearly 18 hours from sunset to sunrise). He thought perhaps by now the sun would have quieted down, and asks when the lower HF frequencies will return to normal. Normally geomagnetic conditions are quite active after a peak in the sunspot cycle, although this time it seems to be holding up quite long. It should turn down some time soon, but there is really no way to know exactly when. Any guesses are based on past solar cycles. If you look at the link to the NOAA SEC site above, on page 15 you'll see a graph of planetary A index, an average of geomagnetic indices from around the world. The graph shows the past ten years, and note that at the sunspot cycle peak around 2000 the progression of the planetary A index was just getting ramped up. Studying the graph, we can see that if the previous solar cycle peaked around 1990-1991, the dramatic drop in Ap index must have occurred about 3-4 years later. Based on that, perhaps we are on the way down already. Just like with the peak or bottom of the solar cycle, we won't know until it has passed and can study the charts. By the way, the gentleman who asked the question this week has a nice page at http://www.qsl.net/kl7r/ that is largely devoted to QRP. Don't miss KL7R's photo of a QRP transceiver he built inside a Microsoft mouse. For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the Propagation page on the ARRL Web site at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Sunspot numbers for February 5 through 11 were 109, 98, 92, 74, 81, 78 and 91 with a mean of 89. 10.7 cm flux was 105.5, 106.7, 111.1, 116.2, 117.8, 116.5 and 114.2, with a mean of 112.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 14, 21, 11, 8, 8, 9 and 26, with a mean of 13.9. /EX -- Subscribe/unsubscribe, feedback, FAQ, problems, etc DX-NEWS http://njdxa.org/dx-news DX-CHAT: http://njdxa.org/dx-chat To post a message, DX NEWS items only, [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news%40njdxa.org --
