[DX-NEWS] ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP23 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 7, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity seems to dip back into the doldrums again, with the average sunspot number for the past week (72) lower than any reporting week since Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP013, which was for the week of March 21-27. You can go through the recent bulletins at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation and note that two weeks ago we had twice that number, when the average daily sunspot number was 144. From last week, the average dropped more than 12 points from 94.3. Average daily solar flux was down more than 10 points to 107.6. But tracking the 3-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers, (which is based on calendar months) the three months ending May 31 had a much higher average than the 3 months ending April 30, and in fact more than any trailing three month average since the one ending on January 2012. At the end of 2011 we saw a rally in solar activity, and with the weak activity in all of 2012 some are suggesting another double-peaked solar cycle. The three month periods centered on July through December 2011 had average sunspot numbers of 63, 79.6, 98.6, 118.8, 118.6 and 110. The first few months of 2012 were weaker, with the 3-month averages centered on January through March at 83.3, 73.7 and 71.2. But now the numbers are trending up. The 3-month averages centered on January through April 2013 were 73.6, 80.7, 85.2 and 106.4. If you are unfamiliar with moving averages, using our method for the 3-month period centered on March, 2013, we added up all the daily sunspot numbers from February 1 through April 30. The sum was 7,581. We divided by the 89 days in those three months, and got approximately 85.2. For the period centered on April, we added all sunspot numbers from March 1 through May 31, and the sum was 9,792. As there were 92 days in this period, the average rounds off to 106.4. On June 3 NASA updated their forecast for the peak of the current solar cycle, available at http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml. This differs from a month earlier, when on May 1 they predicted a cycle maximum in Fall 2013 with a smoothed international sunspot number of 66. Now they predict a peak at 67 in Summer 2013. Summer officially begins at the Solstice, two weeks from today, on June 21 at 0504 UTC, which by the way is the Friday before Field Day weekend. The active geomagnetic days over the past week were June 1-2, when the planetary A index was 49 and 19, the mid-latitude index was 41 and 16, and the high latitude college A index (measured near Fairbanks, Alaska) was 58 and 44. These numbers reflect the concentration of geomagnetic activity toward the poles. The source was an interplanetary shock wave of uncertain origin. Again as this bulletin is written early Friday morning on the West Coast, we are in a geomagnetic storm, the result of the Earth passing through south-pointing magnetism in the solar wind. There is a possibility on June 8 of getting buffeted again, this time the result of a CME, and possibly two. The planetary A index was 17 on June 6, with increasing K-index values from 2 to 3 to 4. Now early on June 7 we see planetary K-index of 5 and 6, which is the equivalent to an A index reading of 64. Now after 1200 UTC it dropped to 56. The Australian Space Forecast center issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning at 0217 UTC on June 7. It reads, "A CME from a disappearing solar filament has arrived earlier than anticipated and is accompanied by a strongly southward pointing magnetic field. This is producing Minor Storm levels of activity in polar regions and may produce Active conditions at mid latitudes over the next 1-2 days." They predict a minor geomagnetic storm today, June 7, and unsettled to active conditions through the weekend, June 8-9. The latest prediction from USAF/NOAA is for solar flux at 110 on June 7, 105 on June 8-9, 100 on June 10, 95 on June 11-12, 100 and 105 on June 13-14, 120 on June 15-16, 125 on June 17-19, then with flux values bottoming out at 105 on June 24-28, and rising to 125 on July 2 and again on July 14-16. Predicted planetary A index is 18 on June 7-8, then 10 and 8 on June 9-10, 5 on June 11-20, then 25, 18, 10 and 8 on June 21-24, 5 on June 25-27, then 30, 20, 12, 8, 5, 8, 12, 10 and 5 on June 28 through July 6. Petr Kolman, OK1MGW predicted a quiet geomagnetic field for June 7 (the prediction was sent around 1900 UTC on June 6), mostly quiet June 8-9, quiet June 10, quiet to unsettled June 11, quiet to active June 12-14, mostly quiet June 15-17, quiet June 18, quiet to unsettled June 19-20, active to disturbed June 21, quiet to active June 22-23, quiet to unsettled June 24, mostly quiet June 25-26, quiet to active June 27, and active to disturbed June 28-29. You can see quite a differenc
[DX-NEWS] ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP24 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 8, 2012 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA Average daily sunspot numbers increased about 60% during the past week (May 31 through June 6), when compared to the previous seven days (May 24-30). The increase was 48.5 points, from 81.9 to 130.4. Average daily solar flux was up 18.6 points from 111.6 to 130.2. The increase in activity began June 1. On May 29 the daily sunspot number was 73, with four sunspot groups visible, 1486, 1488, 1490 and 1492. On May 30, the size of groups 1486, 1488 and 1492 diminished, but 1490 grew, and the sunspot number was 78. On May 31 sunspot groups 1486 and 1488 disappeared, and new groups 1493, 1494 and 1495 appeared. The daily sunspot number was still about the same, 76. On June 1 three new groups appeared, 1496, 1497 and 1498, and the daily sunspot number jumped to 151, and the next day the sunspot number was 113. On June 3 sunspot group 1499 appeared, the sunspot number was 133, and on June 4 three more sunspot groups arose, 1500, 1501 and 1502. Two groups disappeared, 1490 and 1492, and the sunspot number jumped again, this time to 155, the high for the week and the highest since May 14 when it was 156. On June 5, group 1492 emerged again (briefly), 1495 and 1501 faded, and new sunspot group 1503 appeared. The sunspot number was 154, about the same as June 4. On June 6 groups 1492 and 1500 disappeared, and the sunspot number dropped to 131. On Thursday, June 7, the daily sunspot number dropped to 98, and sunspot groups 1502 and 1503 were gone. Solar flux also made a big drop, from 140 on June 6 to 128.2 on June 7. Actually the noon solar flux on June 6 at the observatory (in Penticton, British Columbia) was 151.9, but because NOAA reported it as 140, from past experience we know that the higher number was an outlier, a value indicating that the 2.8 GHz receiver at the Penticton observatory must have been overwhelmed with radiation, perhaps from solar wind, that made accurate measurement of solar flux difficult. This is similar to front-end overload in a receiver, when a strong nearby signal swamps the input. At ftp://ftp.geolab.nrcan.gc.ca/data/solar_flux/daily_flux_values/fluxtable.txt you can examine the raw numbers from Penticton. There are three readings per day at 1700z, 2000z and 2300z. The local noon (2000z) reading is the official solar flux value for the day. Judging from the readings just before (138.7, 133.6 and 132.7) and just after (134.5, 131.4 and 128.2) the June 6 noon reading, an estimated value of 140 seems generous. Compare these readings to the solar flux numbers in the NOAA table of values at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DSD.txt and you can see how the Penticton flux values resolved at one digit past the decimal point are presented as whole numbers. There are some nice photos of the observatory at Penticton in a 2011 presentation by astrophysicist Kenneth Tapping at http://lasp.colorado.edu/sorce/news/2011ScienceMeeting/docs/presentations/6i_Tapping_SORCE2011-KFT.pdf. Geomagnetic activity peaked on June 3, when the planetary A index was 19, and the high-latitude college A index was 33. The activity continues, with the planetary A index on June 4-6 at 16, 17 and 17, and the predicted planetary A index for June 8-11 at 8, 5, 10 and 10, followed by 5 on June 12-17. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase again, with a predicted planetary A index on June 18-20 at 15, 12 and 8. For June 21-25 a planetary A index of 5 is expected, followed by another peak at 15 on July 1 and again on July 15. Predicted solar flux is 130 on June 8-10, 135 on June 11, 130 on June 12, and 125 on June 13-15, 115 on June 16-18, and 110 on June 19-26. The recent geomagnetic activity was caused by a coronal hole, an opening in our Sun's magnetic field allowing solar wind to spew forth. Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interested Group says there is a "High probability of changes in solar wind which may cause changes in magnetosphere and ionosphere, expected on June 17-18." He also says to watch for quiet to active conditions June 8-9, quiet to unsettled June 10, quiet June 11-12, quiet to active June 13, mostly quiet June 14, quiet to unsettled June 15-16, quiet to active June 17, mostly quiet June 18, active conditions on June 19, quiet to unsettled June 20-21, mostly quiet June 22-23, and quiet to unsettled again on June 24-27. You've heard of the glory days of Cycle 19 (maybe you were on the air in the late 1950s?) and that the twentieth century was an unusual period of heightened solar activity? Well check out this interesting piece, presented by a researcher who thinks the modern sunspot numbers may have been inflated: http://www.leif.org/research/The%20long-term%20variation%20of%20solar%20activity.pdf. Just after last week's Propagati
[DX-NEWS] ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP23 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 10, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA Although higher early in the reporting week, average daily sunspot numbers declined over four points to 85.7 and the average of daily solar flux numbers was down a point and a half to 101.6, when compared to the previous week, May 26 to June 1. Predicted solar flux for the near term is 88 on June 10-13, then 86, 84, 84, 88, 95, on June 14-18, then 92 on June 19-21, 95 and 100 on June 22-23 and 110 on June 24-26. Solar flux then rises to a peak of 115 on June 28. Predicted planetary A index is 25, 12, 8 and 8 on June 10-13, then 5 on June 14-22, then peaking at 15 on June 24-25. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled to active conditions June 10, unsettled June 11, quiet to unsettled June 12-13, unsettled June 14, quiet to unsettled June 15, and quiet conditions June 16. On June 3 there were 8 sunspot groups facing Earth, numbered consecutively 1225-1232. Then on June 5, groups 1225, 1229, 1230 and 1231 disappeared, and new group 1233 emerged. On June 7 1233 disappeared, and on June 9 1226 left us and new group 1234 appeared. Scott Bidstrup, TI3/W7RI sent a link to some fantastic HD videos of solar eruptions. Go to http://www.thesuntoday.org/current-observations/a-spectacular-event-a-filamentprominence-eruption-to-blow-your-socks-off/ . If you check page 14 on the report http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1861.pdf and compare it with page 15 on http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1866.pdf you can see that some reported and predicted smoothed sunspot numbers have changed over the last month. The smoothed sunspot numbers for December 2010 through November 2011 have each gone down one or two points. The numbers are smoothed over a year, so the current month would average actual data that has already been measured for about the past six months with about six months of data predicted into the future. Bob Cashdollar, NR8U of Newark, Ohio reports, "On June 4 at 0208z checked 10M for activity for the 10-X Open Season Contest. When I fired up the rig and computer, I landed right on ZL3TE working another ZL on PSK31 on 28.120 MHz. He was very strong and I watched the QSO on the waterfall. When he finished with the ZL QSO I called him and to my surprise he came right back and we exchanged info. I thought this contest was going to be really easy. Boy, was I mistaken! I had a lot of trouble seeing and working anybody stateside. Checked the band this morning (June 4) around 1400z and most stations were not workable, with a lot of scattering of the other stations transmissions. Maybe I should go up to Bob W3HKK that you mentioned in your last column; he just lives about 25 miles NW of me. Maybe he has better propagation!" Jon Jones, N0JK of Kansas reports, "I worked Dave, VP5/W5CW on 6M SSB on June 1 at 0018z. Dave worked many across the mid USA on double hop Es the afternoon of May 31. I was operating portable using a 2 el Yagi." Charlie Calhoun, K5TTT of Owasso, Oklahoma (EM26ch) wrote, "I had something unexpected happen during the Es openings this week on 6m. On two consecutive days I worked two different stations in totally different directions, less than 24 hours from exactly one year prior. On 6/1/2010, I worked XE2NS, DL95 at 0247z, then on 6/1/2011 I worked Alfonso again at 0323z. I thought that was pretty neat until the next day when I worked K0PP, DN36 at 0322z and noticed him in my log from 0305z, 6/3/2010." Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin, ARLP022 (see http://www.arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive/ARLP022/2011) contained a message from Rudy Hanau, K2EVY of Rye Brook, New York about some 20 meter backscatter propagation he experienced. The report didn't mention this, but the propagation was observed around 0300z on May 29. I passed this on to Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, who had the following comments for Rudy: "I looked at the Boulder ionosonde data (kind of along your path to K6ZA) for a couple days before and after May 29. The data show a depletion (roughly 33%) of F2 region electrons on May 28 and May 29, undoubtedly due to the spike in the A index beginning on May 27 and continuing through May 30. I'm sure this would show up in other mid latitude ionosondes. This is likely the reason the 'normal' path wasn't there. "Next I looked at Pt Arguello (Vandenberg AFB, Southern California) ionograms from 0215-0300 UTC on May 29. They show good sporadic-E traces that could easily support 14 MHz. The Pt Arguello ionosonde is about 230 miles SSE of K6ZA, so it is as good an indicator as anything that Es was occurring in the vicinity of K6ZA. "Thus this cursory look says your unusual path might have been due to an Es cloud. Kind of makes sense since we're in the Es season. And it might explain K6ZA's follow-on QSO with the Nevada guy. "I thin
[DX-NEWS] ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP23 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 11, 2010 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA With calmer solar activity, geomagnetic conditions were stable this week. Average daily sunspot numbers were down 7.6 points to 17.7, and average daily solar flux dropped two points to 71. Average planetary A index declined 6.4 points to 7.9, and mid-latitude A index dropped 2.7 points to 6.4. Four new sunspot groups emerged this week. 1077 made a brief appearance on June 5, and 1078 on June 8-10. The area of 1078 grew rapidly, from 80 millionths of a solar hemisphere to 180 on June 9 and 200 on June 10. On June 9 sunspot group 1079 appeared, at 10 millionths of a solar hemisphere, and on June 10 sunspot group 1080 emerged, also at 10 millionths of a solar hemisphere. Old sunspot group 1072, last seen on May 28, might return over June 11-13. All current sunspot groups are in the far southwest of the solar disc, and should disappear soon as they move across the horizon. Just ten more days until the Summer Solstice, on June 21 at 1128z, after which the days become shorter. ARRL Field Day is on the sixth and seventh day of Summer, June 26 and 27. The latest NOAA/USAF forecast has the planetary A index at 5 on June 11-15, 10 on June 16-17, back for 5 on June 18-24, 12 on June 25, and 15 on June 26-27 (Field Day). Two weeks from now is a bit far off for an accurate forecast, but an A index of 15 would mean somewhat unsettled conditions. Solar flux predictions are 72 on June 11-12, 70 on June 13-17, 72 on June 18, 75 on June 19-26, and 72 on June 27 through July 1. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions on June 11-14, unsettled June 15, unsettled to active June 16, and unsettled June 17. Of course, we want sunspot numbers and solar flux high, and A index low for good HF propagation. Vic Morris, AH6WX lives in the northwest area of the island of Hawaii, in Waikoloa. He has noticed the low solar flux values of late. He writes, "Does anyone have an explanation for the marked decrease in solar flux since February? At one point we peaked at 94, seemingly indicating the long overdue increase expected for Cycle 24? But the June 6 reading of 68 is I believe the lowest value of 2010 to date." Yes Vic, the values are lower, and they don't seem to track very well with sunspot numbers. Normally when sunspot numbers increase, so does solar flux, a measurement of 2.8 GHz energy received from the Sun. But a glance at the web site http://www.solen.info/solar shows the generally declining flux. Vic is correct about higher solar flux earlier this year. It was 90 or above on January 11-14 and again February 7-13, and March 12-13. It was below 70 on May 13, and May 16-20, and again June 6-7. It was exactly 68.0 for the noon reading on June 6, and that was the lowest solar flux recorded this year, although the morning reading that day (morning and afternoon readings don't count for the official flux value, which is taken at local noon) was just 67.7. I don't know why this is happening, although there is some seasonal variation. Due to the variation in distance from the Sun, the observed flux values are lower at this time of the year. On June 6 when solar flux was only 68, the adjusted value (to compensate for the variation in distance) was 70. Of course we care about the actual measured value, since that is what affects the ionosphere, but the adjusted value is a more accurate reading of actual activity from the Sun. If we look back at the readings earlier this year, we see the opposite effect from adjusted values. On January 12-13 the observed solar flux was 93.3 and 90.5, but the adjusted values were 90.2 and 87.5. Not sure why adjusted values would ever be lower, but I'll check on that. Vic continues, "I can see the effects of the low solar flux on over-the-pole 20 meter propagation to Europe here in the evening. There were quite a few good openings to Europe earlier in the spring when flux values were well into the 80s. These have mostly disappeared the past 2-3 weeks. Note I do not have a beam or tower at this point, just a vertical antenna. I've managed about 150 DXCC countries here over about 6 years by doing a lot of listening." Brian Webb, KD6NRP sent an impressive list of countries worked in the past few years via PSK31, a very powerful digital mode that works well with weak signals. He runs under 100 watts and uses low antennas (12 feet high, although he didn't say what kind) from his 50x50 foot back yard. Pat Rose, W5OZI in Junction, Texas (EM00cl) reports that on June 3 at 2238z he worked JE1BMJ on 6 meters, a distance of 10,315 km. Both signal reports were 579, but very soon it was over. The day prior, Rich Molinski, WB2KWF in Smithfield, Virginia observed some great 2 meter propagation. He is in FM16, and worked EM25 (Eastern Okl
[DX-NEWS] ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP23 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 5, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA It is so great to see some real Cycle 24 sunspot activity this week. Instead of a phantom that pops into view one day and is gone the next, we have sunspot 1019, which has persisted for five days, so far. Emerging on Sunday, May 31, the resulting daily sunspot numbers through June 4 are 15, 23, 19, 17 and 17. This is a Cycle 24 spot, and at high latitude too, which is an indication of a new cycle spot. Meanwhile, the low solar wind and quiet geomagnetic conditions continue. Currently spot 1019 is about to fade, although it is still a few days away from crossing the eastern limb to the far side. NOAA and the US Air Force expect geomagnetic conditions to continue to be quiet, and a planetary A index around five is predicted until June 29. Predicted solar flux values are 72 for June 5-6, then 74 on June 7-13. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet geomagnetic conditions June 5-8, quiet to unsettled June 9-10, and quiet again June 11. Time now to look at our 3-month average daily sunspot numbers to spot trends. It looks like the numbers are up, slightly. The three-month average of daily sunspot numbers for January through April was 2.4, 2.3, 1.5 and 2. The last number, centered on April, is the sum of all daily sunspot numbers for March through May, divided by the number of days. Since 2007, the 3 month moving average has been: Jan 07 22.7 Feb 07 18.5 Mar 07 11.2 Apr 07 12.2 May 07 15.8 Jun 07 18.7 Jul 07 15.4 Aug 07 10.2 Sep 07 5.4 Oct 07 3.0 Nov 07 6.9 Dec 07 8.1 Jan 08 8.5 Feb 08 8.4 Mar 08 8.4 Apr 08 8.9 May 08 5.0 Jun 08 3.7 Jul 08 2.0 Aug 08 1.1 Sep 08 2.5 Oct 08 4.5 Nov 08 4.4 Dec 08 3.7 Jan 09 2.3 Feb 09 2.1 Mar 09 1.5 Apr 09 2.0 The average daily sunspot number for just the month of May was 4, which indicates a nice trend following the March and April 3-month averages. David Witkowski, W6DTW of San Jose, California was happy to see the reports of night time 20 meter propagation from N6CAS, and notes that on May 20 he worked LY1000A (Lithuania) at 0405z, ES1QD in Estonia at 0612z on May 22, and OH5LF (Finland) at 0635z on May 23. He worked them all using 100 watts and a vertical antenna. He wrote, "I told some friends here in San Jose that I'd worked Europe barefoot at 11:00pm local time and a few of them gave me the 'Oh yeah, sure you did' look. Thanks for vindicating me." David continued, "Regarding the question of "dead" versus "unoccupied" bands; I wrote a blog article recently on this topic. (See http://sparqi.blogspot.com/.) During Summer Es I used to listen to 28.4 and/or tune from 28.3-28.5 to check for openings. Recently I made the discovery that listening on CB channel 38-LSB (27.385) is a much better way to do a quick check for openings; I have monitored stations from all over the western US burning up "38 lower" well into late evening, while 10 meters sits idle. Many times there is propagation; we're just not using it." Howard Estes, WB4GUD of Franklin, North Carolina also likes to check Citizens Band activity for a 10-meter propagation indicator. He wrote, "I agree with W1ZI, the bands aren't dead, we're just lazy. How often do you scan a band, don't hear anything, and go somewhere else? I've started checking the CB channels for activity. If I can hear the Big Frog Gigger in LA (that's lower Alabama), probably 10M is open to somewhere." Mark Lunday, WD4ELG of Hillsborough, North Carolina wrote about a June 1 E-skip opening on 6 meters that still continued at 0400z on June 2. "I worked 12 stations on CW and SSB across the Midwest on 6. Also, had some multi-hop on 10 meters using WSJT JT65A and heard Oregon. Second night in a row that I was hearing Es late at night on 10 meters using WSJT weak-signal propagation." Mark said he likes to use DX Sherlock, at http://tinyurl.com/5qwvu2. Bill Turner, W4WNT of Matthews, North Carolina has good luck lately with PSK on 20 meters, even when there are no sunspots. He is running 25 watts into a G5RV at 25 feet, and on May 21 at 0345z he worked Peter, ZL1PWD who reported working 12 stations that day. Erik Jacobsen, KB9BNY of McHenry, Illinois sent a message titled, "20-meter PSK31 has been on fire this week." He wrote, "Tuesday, with the sunspot number at 19 and the solar flux at 72, 20 meters nicely opened up for world wide communication. I participate in the PSK reporter network (http://psk.gladstonefamily.net/pskmap.html). Basically, when a reporting station receives the de callsign callsign pattern, the location of the transmitting station is then plotted on a map. When I checked the map on Tuesday morning, I saw a Pakistani station, two New Zealand stations and a Japanese station plotted. It just goes to show you how well 20 meters can perform with a small
[DX-NEWS] ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP23 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA May 30, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA This week we saw only one sunspot, numbered 997, and only on Labor Day, May 26. Alas, this was another sunspot left over from fading Cycle 23, and the appearance was very brief. One day it weakly emerged, and it quickly faded from view. The previous five days were spotless; spots appeared on the five days prior to that, and previous to those spotted days were ten days of no spots. If our Sun shows no more sunspots today and tomorrow, May 30-31, we will see a 3-month average of daily sunspot numbers centered on April just above the values for every 3-month average since the minimum, centered on October 2007. The values through April are 3, 6.9, 8.1, 8.5, 8.4, 8.4, and 8.9. Because this is a three month average, we won't know the value centered on May until the end of June. If these numbers suggest Cycle 24 is stalled, we can compare with the previous minimum. Using the same scheme, the 3-month averages of daily sunspot numbers centered on September 1996 through March 1997 (which includes all the sunspot data from August through the following April) were 8.7, 10.2, 14.2, 16.4, 11.7, 11.3, and 16.4. Those are slightly higher values 11 years ago compared with the current numbers, but notice the six months following the minimum also seemed to flatten out. And while the last bottom had slightly higher average sunspot numbers, it had one longer period of no spots. If we rank periods of spotless days back to the mid-nineteenth century, the period between Cycles 22 and 23 had the tenth-ranked spotless days period, the 42 days from September 13 through October 24, 1996. Now between Cycles 23 and 24 we have observed two stretches of spotless days of at least three weeks, a fifty-third ranked 22 days in September, and the twenty-ninth ranked 28 days in October and November of last year. The three longest spotless periods since the mid-nineteenth century were 92 days leading up to Cycle 15 in 1913, 69 days prior to Cycle 14 in 1901, and 54 days before Cycle 12 in 1879. You can peruse the 72 longest periods of zero sunspots lasting 20 days or more, all ranked from longest to shortest at the site, http://tinyurl.com/6b4d6s. Recently we offered notes from Dr. Kenneth Tapping, showing why he doesn't think this minimum is unusual, to anyone who sends a blank email to [EMAIL PROTECTED] The response was huge, over 900 requests, and the offer still stands. Dr. Tapping is an astrophysicist at the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory in Penticton, British Columbia (see, http://tinyurl.com/3lqtab) which supplies the world with their daily 10.7 cm solar flux readings, also reported here. The notes were offered after Dr. Tapping was widely misquoted several months ago (and since then, as the mangled quotes seem to have taken on a life of their own) on various web sites claiming that Dr. Tapping foresaw possibly decades of no sunspots, and then trying to link this to several sorts of worldwide calamity. Some pieces even claimed that the sunspot cycle hit bottom a year and a half ago, and that no sunspots have been observed since, a false claim easily refuted by existing data, widely available. Last week this bulletin mentioned a free downloadable copy of Bob Brown's "Little Pistol's Guide to HF Propagation," but it seems it isn't free after all. I knew the book was out of print, and had seen the PDF version at the web address I gave for so long that I wrongly assumed downloading this was legal, but apparently not. It is actually still being published as the same PDF document on a CD ROM produced by World Radio Magazine. For the next week expect more of the quiet geomagnetic conditions seen recently. The U.S. Air Force and NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center predict a planetary A index beginning May 30 at 10, 8, 10, 10, and then 5 from June 3-14. They also predict the next period when daily solar flux is above 70 to be June 12-20. Geophysical Institute Prague foresees unsettled conditions May 30-31, unsettled to active June 1, unsettled June 2, quiet to unsettled June 3, and quiet conditions June 4-5. Currently we are just a few weeks away from the Summer Solstice, the longest day of the year. This officially occurs at midnight GMT on June 21. Our current sporadic-E season continues, with often unexpected openings on 6 and 10 meters. Ray Soifer, W2RS at his Texas vacation home observed 6 meter openings observed from EM00 to Colorado, Illinois, Tennessee and Mississippi. During last weekend's WPX contest using 100 watts and a very simple antenna, he worked all continents on 20 meters in just 25 minutes on Saturday at 2220-2245z. Joaquin Montoya, EA2CCG from Spain reports great openings from his mobile on 6 and 10 meters on Saturday, including 10 meter FM into Euro
[DX-NEWS] ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP23 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 1, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA The average daily sunspot number this week dropped nearly 23 points to 3.3, while average daily solar flux declined exactly five points to 68.8. We saw five days in a row with a sunspot number of 0. All those zeroes combined with sunspot numbers of 11 and 12 are what made the average only 3.3. If there are any sunspots at all, the sunspot number itself can't ever go that low, because there are no sunspot numbers between 0 and 11, due to the way the number is calculated. It is not actually a count of the number of sunspots. 11 is the number you get if there is one sunspot, because a value of 10 is added for each group of sunspots. So one sunspot counts for only one group, so ten plus one sunspot equals eleven. If there are two sunspots in that group, then the sunspot number is 12, three is 13, and so on. But if there are three sunspots divided into two groups, then the number is 23, as it was on May 20. If we didn't have any images of the Sun, and the sunspot number was 23, we might think there were thirteen sunspots in one group, instead of three in two groups, which would be valid according to the formula, but less likely. The forecast is for continued one or zero sunspot conditions, with a planetary A index for June 1-7 at 5, 5, 15, 15, 8, 5 and 5. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for today, June 1, unsettled June 2-4, and quiet again on June 6-7. For some reason they didn't make any prediction for June 5, but I'll bet that it is a quiet to unsettled day. Just prior to the writing of this bulletin, at 0651z on June 1, an M1 class X-ray flare was released from the Sun. Thanks to NW7US and his web site, http://prop.hfradio.org, for this alert. Now, the interplanetary magnetic field points south, making earth vulnerable. On June 3, a solar wind stream is expected to hit earth when a coronal hole shifts into a critical position. This is what the planetary A index forecast of 15 for June 3-4 is based on. Let's look at the average daily sunspot numbers and solar flux for May, compared to previous months, to spot any trends. Monthly averages of daily sunspot numbers for April 2006 through May 2007 were 55.2, 39.6, 24.4, 22.6, 22.8, 25.2, 14.7, 31.5, 22.2, 28.2, 17.3, 9.8, 6.9 and 19.8. Monthly averages of daily solar flux for the same period were 88.9, 80.9, 76.5, 75.8, 79, 77.8, 74.3, 86.3, 84.4, 83.5, 77.7, 72.2, 72.4 and 74.4. We've recently been looking at 3-month smoothed sunspot numbers, so knowing the May values, we can combine them with March and April to produce a smoothed 3-month average sunspot number centered on April, which turns out to be 12.2. Here are the 3-month smoothed sunspot numbers for the past 19 months: Oct 05 28 Nov 05 36 Dec 05 40.6 Jan 06 32.4 Feb 06 18.1 Mar 06 27.7 Apr 06 38.5 May 06 39.7 Jun 06 28.9 Jul 06 23.3 Aug 06 23.5 Sep 06 21.2 Oct 06 24.1 Nov 06 23.1 Dec 06 27.3 Jan 07 22.7 Feb 07 18.5 Mar 07 11.2 Apr 07 12.2 The moving average centered on April is just one point above March's value, but the overall trend is consistent with a declining solar cycle. Several people sent articles about new methods for predicting solar radiation storms up to an hour or two prior to their commencement. One involves detecting a swarm of electrons in advance of the energetic ions. Another refers to the "scream" of a coronal mass ejection's advance front of radio energy. See the two stories at, http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2007/25may_costep.htm and http://www.skyreport.com/#Story2. ARRL Field Day is coming up soon, and several readers, including Wade Grimes, K0MHP of Elsberry, Missouri asked about conditions for that weekend, now just three weeks away. It is too early to tell, but I have been checking the daily updates at, http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html. The one released on May 31 shows a solar flux of 65, possibly meaning no sunspots, and coming off a period of higher geomagnetic activity, based on the most recent solar rotation. Field Day is always the last full weekend in June, which this year is June 23-24, and the planetary A index prediction for June 19-24 is 25, 20, 20, 20, 12 and 5. But this weekend there are actually three other field day operating events, not associated with the ARRL Field Day, and we can participate in those too if we wish. The first is the IARU Region 1 HF Field Day. It actually is in two parts, CW and SSB, and the CW weekend is this weekend, running from 1500z Saturday to 1500z Sunday, June 2-3. IARU Region 1 covers Europe, Africa, Middle East, and Northern Asia, but nothing in the rules precludes North American stations from participating, and in fact, those Region 1 stations get more points for working other stations outside their continent
[DX-NEWS] ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP23 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 9, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA Sunspot counts were lower this week, but it is surprising what has happened on the ham bands. Operators are still having fun, and still working long distances, even on VHF, during this low part of the sunspot cycle. Most of this is due to seasonal sporadic-E propagation. Average sunspot numbers dropped 35 points to 19.3 between the last week in May and the first week of June. Geomagnetic indexes were a little higher. In 6-meter news, Scott Avery, WA6LIE in Salinas, California (CM96) says that on June 1 he worked four stations in Florida from -0100z. Jim Henderson, KF7E near Phoenix, Arizona said on June 2 that 6-meter conditions on the previous weekend were exceptional, with propagation to the Carolinas on May 27 and New England on May 28. May 29 saw openings to Vermont, Connecticut, Maine and New York, and then "a huge opening to the Pacific Northwest." Jim also sent along an interesting link to a map of electron densities, along with plots of reported 6-meter propagation. You can see it at, http://69.15.204.66/ionosphere/DesktopDefault.aspx?tabindex=3&tabid=34. Shelby Ennis, W8WN of Elizabethtown, Kentucky sent a link to, http://www.vhfdx.net/spots/map.php, that shows real-time maps of VHF propagation. You can select maps for different bands and various regions. There were also reports of great HF conditions during the CQ WPX contest over the Memorial Day weekend. Sig, N3RS of Glenmoore, Pennsylvania said he could work Europe until the wee hours on 20 meters, and he had 15 and 20-meter propagation to Japan as well. Gordon Fogg, N5AU of Rockwall, Texas said that on Sunday night and Monday, June 4-5, he experienced an amazing 6-meter opening to Japan. He worked 17 JA stations on CW, and heard many other stations working them also. Jon Jones, N0JK of Wichita, Kansas characterized the 6-meter opening to Japan on Sunday night, June 4 as "massive sporadic-E." Jon said the Sunday Japan opening favored Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and Colorado. On Monday stations as far east as Florida, Ohio and Alabama worked Japan on 6-meters. On Sunday evening, Jon used 100 watts and a 2 element Yagi atop the parking garage at the hospital where he works and he contacted JA7QVI around 2345z on 50.101 MHz. Chip Margelli, K7JA of Garden Grove, California wrote to urge contact with WQ5W, who worked "at least 34 JAs" on 6-meters on Sunday. Chip worked JH0RNN and JA7QVI on CW. Alan Benoit, WQ5W wrote, "Yes, we had an amazing opening into JA on Sunday evening from here in EM12 (near Fort Worth). I worked NL7Z at 2218z on SSB and then noticed in the 6M chat room that JH2COZ was going to call CQ on 50.096 MHz CW. Not expecting anything, I listened for his CQ and to my amazement, I heard him 559. He came back immediately to my call and I worked my first JA ever on 6M!" Alan continues, "I then proceeded to call CQ on CW further up the band and had many JAs call me! Between 2227z and 0151z I made 42 QSOs into JA along with 2 KL7s and a few VE7s (all on CW). It was the most amazing thing I've ever experienced on 6M. I believe all of this was via Es which makes it even more amazing." This weekend is the ARRL June VHF QSO Party, a nice excuse for searching for more 6-meter excitement. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Sunspot numbers for June 1 through 7 were 11, 0, 0, 17, 23, 36 and 48 with a mean of 19.3. 10.7 cm flux was 77.2, 75.3, 75.9, 75.6, 77.9, 78, and 82.7, with a mean of 77.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 8, 4, 2, 4, 23 and 24 with a mean of 11.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 10, 5, 2, 1, 2, 15 and 18, with a mean of 7.6. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP23 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 3, 2005 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA Both sunspot numbers and solar flux were higher this week, with the average daily sunspot number nearly doubling to 71.3 and average solar flux up over 10 points to 93.8. These numbers are compared to the average for the previous reporting week, which was May 19-25. This week's numbers are in the last paragraph of this bulletin. Conditions were good for last weekend's CQ World-Wide WPX CW Contest, at least for most of the first day. But earth passed through a solar wind stream, sparking auroras, and by Monday the planetary A index was 67, indicating a strong geomagnetic storm. But the effect was not as large as the storm during mid-May. For this weekend, the predicted planetary A index for June 3-6 is 15, followed by 10 for Saturday through Monday. After June 3 predicted solar flux should drop below 95 and possibly stay there until around the end of the month. The Prague Geophysical Institute sent a forecast showing active conditions on June 5-6, unsettled on June 3, 4 and 7, quiet to unsettled on June 8, and quiet conditions on June 9. Roy Erismann, HB9BJJ sent news of a new book on propagation. It is titled "Space Weather and Telecommunications," by John M. Goodman. The book is very expensive, so I am trying to get it locally via interlibrary loan. If anyone has read it and would like to comment, I'd like to hear any reviews. Larry Lilly, N3CR of Jim Thorpe, Pennsylvania (grid FN20) wrote in with 6-meter news. Thursday, May 26 there was a big opening on 6-meters, and Larry found openings in both the morning and the evening, with stronger signals in the later period. He worked stations in Michigan and Wisconsin, and the band stayed open until 10:30 PM EDT (0230z). Larry runs low power, and with 10 watts on May 30 he aimed his 2 element quad to southeast and worked VP9/N0JK in Bermuda on the first call. Larry's antenna is mounted 20 feet high. Larry is enjoying 6-meters, getting on "after a 10-year absence battling 49 MHz baby monitors." Dave Greer, N4KZ of Frankfort, Kentucky was hearing 6-meter beacons last Saturday (May 28) "from all over North America, but very few live stations." Within a few minutes of each other Dave copied beacons or live stations from W1, C6, Arizona, North Dakota, Florida and Wisconsin. He worked stations on 6-meters in New Mexico, Wyoming and North Dakota. Eric Christensen, KF4OTN in Greenville, North Carolina (FM15) worked VA2LGQ (FN15) in Ottawa, Ontario on 6-meters on May 26. Eric was mobile using 100 watts on 50.125 MHz USB. Al Olcott, K7ICW in Las Vegas on May 27 worked several Salt Lake City area stations on 6-meters, with Utah stations running 10-20 watts into vertical whip antennas and coming in very strong. He wrote, "This is not too unusual where there are dense E clouds. We were also simultaneously hearing New Mexico stations at 500 miles." Al also says that several Salt Lake stations (410-450 miles from him) attempted 2-meter contacts, "but all that was recognized was very weak tropospheric mode." He also wrote, "It is typical that 350-450 mile 6M paths are accompanied by 2M Es openings, but at a distance beyond what is heard on 6M, and the same general direction." Woody Ebersold, KC0THS of Joplin, Missouri heard plenty of 6-meter activity on May 29 and said WJ0F in Arizona was so strong, "he dominated 50.135 MHz for over a half hour." The day before, May 28, Woody was on 2-meter FM and using a vertical he worked several stations on simplex as far away as Flagstaff, Arizona. Now that May has turned to June, we can look at some monthly averages in an attempt to discern a trend. The trend overall of course is down, but May was actually pretty good with higher sunspot numbers and solar flux compared to recent months. The average daily sunspot numbers for the months September 2004 through May 2005 were 50, 77.9, 70.5, 34.7, 52, 45.4, 41, 41.5 and 65.4. So May 2005 had higher average daily sunspot numbers than any month since November. Average daily solar flux for the same months was 103, 106, 113.7, 95, 102.3, 97.2, 89.9, 85.9 and 99.5. May's average daily solar flux values were higher than any month since January. But this is just one of those bumps on the long slide down cycle 23, and we are probably still on track to see a sunspot minimum around the end of next year. The report in last week's bulletin about Larry Bishop, KB9WLM on 6-meters should have read, "he worked Columbian station HK3JRL at 2320z on 50.135 MHz." This generated a ton of mail, because as everyone pointed out, HK is for Columbia, not South Korea (HL), and it was HK3JRL, not an HK2 call. If you would like to comment or have a tip, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation of the numbers us
[DX-NEWS] ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP23 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23 ARLP023 >From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA June 4, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP023 ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA The sun appears nearly blank. Today one small spot, sunspot 621 faces earth, but there are no other noticeable areas of activity. Only two days ago there were several more sunspots, but they are no longer visible. These sunspots didn't rotate off the visible disk, but just faded from view. Sunspot numbers and solar flux are understandably quite low. Average daily sunspot numbers for the May 27 through June 2 period was nearly 40 points lower than the daily average for the previous seven days. Over the same period, average daily solar flux was down almost seven points. Fortunately, geomagnetic activity was low. Over the weekend conditions were unsettled, but otherwise several days had mid-latitude geomagnetic A indices in the single digits. Over the next week expect low geomagnetic activity. Planetary A index for June 4-8 is expected at 10, 8, 8, 10 and 10. Solar flux values for the same days are predicted to be 90, 95, 95, 100 and 100. Solar flux is expected to peak between June 11-16 around 110. Now that May is over, we should look at some monthly trends over the last year. The monthly average of daily sunspot numbers for May 2003 through May 2004 was 89.6, 118.4, 132.8, 114.3, 82.6, 118.9, 103, 75.7, 62.3, 75.6, 81, 59.3 and 77. The monthly average of daily solar flux for the same 13 months was 116.6, 129.4, 127.7, 122.1, 112.2, 155.5, 140.8, 116.1, 114.1, 107, 112.1, 101.2 and 99.8. Solar flux hit a new monthly low during May for this downward side of the solar cycle when it dropped below 100. We're in a late spring propagation mode now. The higher HF bands, such as 10 and 12 meters, are seeing fewer openings, although this month we should see sporadic E skip. As the days grow longer, absorption during daylight hours should increase. Daytime propagation on 20 meters won't be as good as a few months earlier, but late night propagation should improve. Also during the summer, seasonal noise levels increase, probably more noticeable on 160, 80 and 40 meters. 40 meters should still be good for some long distance nighttime propagation. Field Day is still several weeks off, but currently the SEC 45 Day AP forecast for planetary A index shows unsettled conditions predicted for June 26 and 27 with A values of 15. This is really too early to tell, but the picture of conditions for that weekend should become clearer as we approach the date. For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Sunspot numbers for May 27 through June 2 were 62, 52, 57, 64, 54, 76 and 63 with a mean of 61.1. 10.7 cm flux was 101.8, 102.4, 101.2, 99.6, 95.4, 90 and 90.4, with a mean of 97.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 6, 9, 14, 13, 14, 16 and 11, with a mean of 11.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 6, 12, 11, 11, 14 and 9, with a mean of 9.7. /EX -- To post a message the subject must begin with [:dx-news:] (all lower case) and sent to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED] --
