[DX-NEWS] ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP034 ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP34 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34 ARLP034 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 23, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP034 ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity picked up this week, with average daily sunspot numbers for August 15-21 up nearly 42 points (forty-nine percent) to 126.9, when compared to the previous seven days. Likewise, average daily solar flux increased from 111.7 to 126.3. The latest prediction from USAF/NOAA has solar flux at 130, 125, 120, and 115 on August 23-26, 110 on August 27-29, 105 on August 30, 95 on August 31 through September 1, 100 on September 2, 105 on September 3-4, 110 on September 5-8, 115 on September 9-11, 120 on September 12-13, and 125 on September 14-16. It then drops below 100 to 95 again on September 27-28. Predicted planetary A index is 15, 25, 20, 12, and 8 on August 23-27, 5 on August 28-30, then 12, 15 and 10 on August 31 through September 2, 5 on September 3-9, then 10, 15 and 18 on September 10-12, 8 on September 13-14, then 5, 15, 22, 12 and 8 on September 15-19 and 5 on September 20-26. OK1HH predicts in his geomagnetic activity forecast that August 23-24 will be active to disturbed, quiet to active conditions on August 25, quiet to unsettled August 26, mostly quiet August 27-29, quiet August 30, active to disturbed August 31 and September 1, quiet to unsettled September 2, quiet September 3-5, mostly quiet September 6-7, quiet September 8-9, quiet to active September 10-11, active to disturbed September 12-13, quiet September 14, mostly quiet September 15, quiet September 16, quiet to active September 17 and active to disturbed September 18. On Saturday, August 17, 2013 the Penticton observatory recorded solar flux values of 123.2, 149.7 and 129 at 1700, 2000 and 2300 UTC. The local noon value at 2000 UTC is always reported as the official flux value for the day, but NOAA reported it as 125 instead of 149.7. They do this when the noon number appears to be an outlier caused by overload of the 2.8 GHz receiver used to produce these numbers. I suspect the overload was caused by a significant and long duration M3 class solar flare, erupting from sunspot 1818 at 1824 UTC. The NOAA estimate is produced by selecting a number somewhere between the morning and afternoon readings. A look at the weekly Preliminary Report and Forecast for August 5, 2013 (see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1979.pdf) shows the most recent prediction for smoothed sunspot numbers peaking in January and February 2014. The Arizona Daily Star ran an interview with Matt Penn, the astronomer who predicted the possible disappearance of future sunspots based on weakening solar magnetic fields. Read it at http://azstarnet.com/news/science/don-t-flip-out-about-the-sun/article_ce93e4cf-0178-51bf-882e-fee8e5e8de91.html. David Dary, W5ZAX of Norman, Oklahoma sent in an interesting article about a different method for tracking the complexity of the solar magnetic field. It posits that the sun may be more active than it appears. Read it at http://www.universetoday.com/104023/is-the-sun-more-active-than-it-looks-an-innovative-method-to-characterize-the-solar-cycle/. Note they give a link to the original journal article. You may be able to access the article in the Astrophysical Journal online for free via an account at your local public library. Roland Anders, K3RA of Elkridge, Maryland reports on August 19: 15 meters continues to be fantastic into Indonesia from 8 am until past 1 pm EDST. Besides the many strong YB stations, in the past several days during the 1300 to 1745Z time period on 15 I've worked JA, BY, BV, 9M2, 9M4, V8, 9V, HS, 4S, VU, and UN. And the EU signals are crushingly loud! But when 15 is that good to EU, it is a clue to try 12 meters. I've found 12 open in the morning hours several times in the last week. Today, I called CQ on 12 (dead band) and worked 2 IT9 stations at 12:45Z. After some more CQs with no answers, I returned to 15. I'm sure 12 was open to EU from time to time during the morning -- maybe all morning, but I didn't get back to 12 until 1612Z. For the next hour I worked DX over a wide area: Starting with a walloping signal from CU8AS, I then worked stations as far North as TF and east to SV and HZ. But the biggest surprise was at 1644 when I worked YB0NFL S9 over the North Pole. Arif worked a lot of EU and NA DX over the half hour or so--that's 12 meters at midnight Jakarta time! And, there were a couple of EU stations heard on 10 meters when 12 was open. So, it seems like we're getting into fall conditions on 12 and 10 meters. This much maligned sunspot cycle has a lot to offer! Later he wrote: Went back to 12 meters at 2100Z, and the band was wide open to EU. Some stations VERY loud. Then, at 2130Z I heard JAs answering an LU CQ, so I call CQ with beam to JA and worked seven JAs, several very strong. Viva 12! Laurence, GJ3RAX from the Isle of Jersey sent
[DX-NEWS] ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP034 ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP34 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34 ARLP034 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 26, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP034 ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity rose this week, with the average daily sunspot number increasing over 40 points to 66, and average daily solar flux up over 13 points to 101.9. Predicted solar flux for August 26 is 110, and 115 for August 27-28, 110 for August 29 to September 1, 105 for September 2-3, 100 for September 4-5, 95 on September 6-7, and bottoming out at 90 on September 8-12. The next peak of activity is predicted for September 22-23. Predicted planetary A index is 5 for August 26-27, 10 on August 28, 8 on August 29, and 5 on August 30 through September 2, then 8 on September 3, 10 on September 4-6, 7 on September 7, and 5 on September 8-10. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for August 26, unsettled on August 27-28, quiet to unsettled August 29 and quiet conditions on August 30 through September 1. A story forwarded from a British newspaper by a reader warned that a huge mass of electrically charged particles thrown out by a giant eruption on the Sun is due to strike the earth tonight. But the article itself is undated, and the web page continuously updates to show the current date. The link to the article was sent to me on August 21, but the event didn't happen then, and is not happening now, nor is such an event predicted for the next few days. Down the left margin of the page are ads for astrologers, and on the right margin are links to over 80 stories about celebrity gossip. If you do a web search for phrases from the article - which is at http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-200952/power-cuts-threat-sun-storm-hits-earth.html - you find it quoted all over the net by people assuming that this is about to happen, some of them quite alarmed. But looking at the latest prediction from NOAA/USAF at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html shows no predicted rise in the A index, which would be large if such an event were predicted. So what date was the article published? I doubt if this newspaper has had a science editor for a number of years, so perhaps they keep running the same article with its dire warnings, and only the celebrity gossip changes. The key to the date of this article lies in searching the newspaper archive for the headline. If you enter a portion of the headline into the search box next to the article, the actual date is revealed: October 29, 2003. This is nearly eight years ago. Now we know why nobody predicted this event. In these fast moving times, 2003 might seem to some like ancient history. Try doing a web search of a phrase from this article. Some of the results are quite funny. You will see it referenced all over the web as if it just happened and were breaking news. Last week's bulletin mentioned the new issue of WorldRadio expected last Saturday, which would have an updated propagation column by K9LA. The new September issue didn't actually appear online until several days later. You can read it now at http://www.worldradiomagazine.com. The propagation column by K9LA, Carl Luetzelschwab pays tribute to the late Bob Brown, NM7M and his writings about propagation for the amateur community. Carl mentions that one of Bob's popular books is available for download from Carl's web site. Just go to http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/ and click on General on the left side of the page, then right-click the link for Little Pistol's Guide to HF Propagation to download the PDF. We are just a few weeks away from the Autumnal Equinox, a time when we see better HF propagation than we did during the summer. You can check the effect of seasonal change by running two instances of a propagation program, and switching back and forth to see the same projection over two different dates. You can download W6ELprop from http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/ and try what I did, which was to compare August 2 with September 22. The predicted smoothed sunspot number for August was 59, and for September it is 62. You could use those numbers, or use the same sunspot number on both projections to isolate the seasonal effect. I ran my projection between Atlanta, Georgia and England. You bring up Atlanta coordinates in W6ELprop by entering the prefix W4, and England with the G prefix. You can see the generally improved signal strengths and longer openings in the September prediction. If you want the latest smoothed sunspot numbers for this month and off into the future, go to http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1875.pdf and look at the table on page 18. Every 4-5 issues they have an updated projection for the current solar cycle. Finally, do you think Cycle 24 is weaker and still progressing slower than previous solar cycles? You are correct. For a comparison of Cycles 21, 22, 23 and 24, check
[DX-NEWS] ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP034 ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP34 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34 ARLP034 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 15, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP034 ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA Thanks to Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA for writing the excellent bulletin last week. If you missed it, be sure to check http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2008-arlp033.html because it is full of useful information. Our sun is still not producing any sunspots. As mentioned in previous bulletins, the peak of the last cycle was a double peak, so perhaps we are in the midst of an extended bottom. Roger Lapthorn, G3XBM reported six-meter observations. ''Following on from comments in the Aug 8th propagation bulletin, I'd like to mention Aug 6th when, here in the UK on just a small VHF collinear, I heard both D4C and K1TOL on 6m CW. The Cape Verde station was working a string of EU stations and peaked at 539 with me. Lefty, K1TOL (who I worked last year on 6m with just 2.5W!) was 569 and a solid signal for 15 minutes. A little later I was able to work N2MM on 10m SSB with just 10W and a halo antenna. My summary is that 6m (and 10m) truly is a magic band if one can hear such DX on such a simple antenna ...and at sunspot minimum. Last year's experience of working K1TOL confirmed that it is possible to work such DX too with a bit of luck and decent sporadic-E''. The following is from Scott Bidstrup, WA7UZO, and is so interesting I thought I should include it in its entirety. ''I live in Costa Rica (EK70rc), and at this low latitude, propagation is significantly different than in the States. I have been having a lot of fun exploring those differences, and recently downloaded and installed BeaconSee to watch propagation from the NCDXF/IARU beacon network. And I have noticed something you might find to be quite interesting. While monitoring the NOAA space weather page at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SWN/index.html I discovered that when a boundary crossing occurs, there seems to be a mode switch in the propagation I see here in Costa Rica. If the Bz component is strongly positive, on 20m. and 15m., I see fairly strong signals from the 4U1UN beacon in New York, and moderately strong signals from the OA4B beacon in Peru. I can also see a weak signal from W6WX and occasionally KH6WO, and in the early morning from the ZS6 and 5Z4 beacons as well. When a boundary crossing occurs, it's like someone throws a switch - over three or four minutes, 4U1UN fades, the W6 and KH6 beacons disappear, and OA4B booms in. The bands will get somewhat noisy until the Bz becomes settled in the decidedly negative, at which point the noise will subside and the OA4B beacon will become so strong I can even hear it in the 100mw mode. But I can hear practically nothing else on the band, and see the 4U1UN beacon only very weakly. When the bands are in this mode, 10m. is open to South America, but only to stations in an arc across the middle of the continent from Santiago to a range from Buenos Aires to Sao Paulo - no other stations need apply. This bimodality seems to be inversely correlated to solar wind speed. the higher the wind speed, the smaller the effect. It seems to be positively correlated with the proton density - the stronger the proton flux, the stronger the signals from South America''. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of this bulletin are at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw.html#email. Sunspot numbers for August 7 through 13 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0 with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 66.1, 65.5, 65.5, 65.6, 65.7, 65.2, and 65.3 with a mean of 65.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 4, 18, 13, 7, 6 and 5 with a mean of 8.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 3, 16, 9, 6, 6 and 3 with a mean of 6.6. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to [EMAIL PROTECTED] In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://njdxa.org ---
[DX-NEWS] ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP034 ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP34 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34 ARLP034 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 17, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP034 ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA We're on the road this week, and post this bulletin from Hillsborough County, New Hampshire. Solar activity continues low. The sun is currently spotless, but sunspots may return around August 20. This week's average daily sunspot numbers were down about a point from last week's, from 12.4 to 11.3. Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions over the next week, according to a forecast from the US Air Force, which predicts planetary A index for August 17-23 of 8, 5, 10, 5, 5, 10 and 8. But Geophysical Institute Prague has quite a different prediction for August 18. They predict quiet conditions for August 17, unsettled to active on August 18, unsettled August 19, quiet August 20-21, unsettled August 22, and quiet to unsettled August 23. Jerry Reimer, KK5CA of Spring, Texas, sent in some interesting comments about NVIS (Near Vertical Incidence Skywave) propagation and antennas, and ionospheric data available on the internet. An automated ionospheric sounder, or isosonde, beams energy straight up while sweeping the signal up in frequency, thereby determining the MUF or Maximum Usable Frequency of that area by measuring the reflected signal. Jerry says that NVIS communication (which is used to communicate with stations out to about 200 miles maximum) is best at a frequency 50 to 80 percent below the MUF from the isosonde. So if the MUF of the patch of ionosphere overhead is 10 MHz, then NVIS is best between 2-5 MHz. With NVIS, users are trying to get high angle radiation instead of low angle, which is usually the goal with other modes of HF communication. A page explaining Vertical Incidence Soundings is linked from http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/ by clicking on the Vertical Soundings link on the left of the page. He also pointed out some interesting real-time maps showing continent-wide communication between various points at http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/4/1. For instance, if you select Hourly HAP Charts, then select Kansas City, what you will see is the best frequencies for communications with Kansas City from across the continent at that time. So you can look at the color region over any point on the map, and this is keyed to the best frequency for communicating with Kansas City from that point. More about NVIS and ionospheric soundings in next week's bulletin. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for August 9 through 15 were 14, 14, 13, 11, 13, 14 and 0 with a mean of 11.3. 10.7 cm flux was 67.4, 67.5, 67.6, 68.1, 67.7, 68.5, and 67.6, with a mean of 67.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 13, 12, 6, 3, 6 and 8 with a mean of 7.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 10, 7, 5, 2, 3 and 6, with a mean of 5. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-NEWS] ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP034 ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP34 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 34 ARLP034 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA August 20, 2004 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP034 ARLP034 Propagation de K7RA Solar flux and sunspot numbers rose this week. August 13-14 were the peak days for both, and with low and stable geomagnetic indices, HF conditions were good. There weren't any days with notable geomagnetic upsets. Sunspot 649 has rotated off the western limb of the sun, and on August 18 it emitted a large coronal mass ejection. Since it is facing away from earth, we are not likely to be affected, but from a right angle the mass thrown off the sun from this region is more visible than if the spot were facing us. Right now sunspot 652 is pointed in our direction, and there are some spots identified on the sun's far side using the helioseismic holography method. Geomagnetic indices are expected to rise, then decline again over the next few days. The expected planetary A index for August 20-23 is 15, 12, 10 and 12. The expected solar flux for the same days is 115, 110, 105 and 100. We are only a month away from the Fall equinox. Of course this will bring the good Fall conditions to HF. Due to the declining solar cycle, it probably won't be as good as Fall was over the past few years, but should be better overall for the higher bands than summertime was. For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. Sunspot numbers for August 12 through 18 were 140, 160, 111, 98, 68, 63 and 53 with a mean of 99. 10.7 cm flux was 147.2, 148.6, 149.2, 138.8, 133.6, 135 and 139.9, with a mean of 141.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 9, 9, 7, 8, 11 and 13, with a mean of 9.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 5, 6, 3, 5, 9 and 10, with a mean of 6.3. /EX -- To post a message the subject must begin with [:dx-news:] (all lower case) and sent to [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/[EMAIL PROTECTED] --
