[DX-NEWS] ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP51 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51 ARLP051 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 13, 2013 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA Solar indicators rose over the past week, for both solar flux and sunspot numbers. The highest were on Tuesday, December 10 when the sunspot number was 169 and solar flux 175.2. In an otherwise quiet week the planetary A index reached 26 on Sunday, December 8, sparked by a strong solar wind surging from a coronal hole. We could see a repeat this weekend. Geomagnetic activity during the ARRL 10 Meter Contest this weekend should be more active than contesters would prefer, with predicted planetary A index values of 20 and 15 on Saturday and Sunday. NOAA said Thursday night that the geomagnetic field may be anywhere from quiet to minor storm levels this weekend. For the past six 10-Meter Contests, geomagnetic conditions have been very quiet. But in 2006 the contest (always the second full weekend in December) fell right between two very active periods. The 2006 contest was held on December 9-10, and checking the record at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/old_indices/2006_DGD.txt we see the planetary A index on those dates was 7 and 14. But just prior on December 6 the A index was 28, and 25 on December 7-8. Following the contest that year the planetary A index on December 11-15 was 15, 26, 5, 63 and 104. The last two figures indicate a major geomagnetic storm. Lucky it didn't hit earlier, but the contest weekend was still feeling the effects of the higher activity in the days before. Reports included much trans-equatorial propagation. North-South propagation across the equator is not enhanced during periods of high geo-activity, but rather that is often the only propagation path available. Compared to the previous seven days, over December 5-11 the average daily sunspot number rose from 102.9 to 122.1, and average daily solar flux increased from 132.9 to 162.4. The predicted values in the 45-day outlook for solar flux took a substantial leap on December 8. For example, on December 7 the predicted average solar flux for December 10-15 was 141, and on December 8 the projected average for the same period was 170. The predicted values for the following 45 days increased across the board, but have since scaled back somewhat. The latest prediction has solar flux at 165 on December 13, 160 on December 14-15, 155 on December 16-18, 150 on December 19-20, 172 on December 21-22, 175 on December 23-25, 172 on December 26, 170 on December 27-29, 165 on December 30, and 160 on December 31 through January 2, 2014. After dipping to 150 on January 4, solar flux is expected to rise to a short term peak of 172 on January 7-8. Predicted planetary A index is 12, 20 and 15 on December 13-15, then 5 on December 16-25, then 12, 10 and 8 on December 26-28, 5 on December 29 through January 2, 2014, then 10, 20, 15, 10 and 8 on January 3-7. OK1HH believes the geomagnetic field will be quiet December 13-14, mostly quiet December 15, quiet to unsettled December 16, quiet December 17-18, quiet to unsettled December 19, quiet December 20-24, mostly quiet December 25, quiet to unsettled December 26, quiet to active December 27, quiet December 28, mostly quiet December 29, and quiet on December 30-31. Predicted solar flux shows this weekend's 10 Meter Contest should have the highest solar flux and sunspot numbers since the 2002 contest. Conditions may be similar to the 1999 contest, when solar flux and sunspot numbers were about the same as now. This was before the peak of the last solar cycle, cycle 23. To test this out and see where conditions are compared to previous ten meter contests, I averaged sunspot numbers and solar flux since 1997 for the contest weekend including the Friday before. From 1997 through 2012, the average solar flux on the second full weekend in December was 90.6, 143.5, 160.9, 139.9, 224.2, 185.3, 89.1, 88.4, 91.2, 92.8, 87.5, 69.8, 74, 88.2, 139.3, and 100.6. For Friday through Saturday this weekend the average of predicted flux values is 161.7, very close to what it was in 1999, and as you can see, stronger than any contest weekend after 2002. Over the same period using the same method, average sunspot numbers were 66.7, 153.3, 120.3, 70.7, 201.3, 202.3, 41.3, 27, 55.7, 22.7, 34, 4.7, 13, 27, 103 and 32.7. We don't have a source for predicted daily sunspot numbers, but the average reported at the end of this bulletin was 122.1. This is also stronger than any contest weekend since 2002. Note that in 2008 the average sunspot number on the second weekend in December was only 4.7. This may seem strange, because the arcane method used for determining sunspot number produces no non-zero sunspot numbers below 11. But on that Friday through Sunday period, over the three days sunspot numbers were 14, 0 and 0. That produces an arithmetic average of 4.667, or 4.7.
[DX-NEWS] ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP51 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51 ARLP051 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 16, 2011 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA Solar activity dropped this week, with average daily sunspot numbers declining over 39 points to 94.7. It's been 13 weeks since the average daily sunspot number for the week was that low or lower, when Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP037 reported an average of 91.7. The daily sunspot number has been lower than this week's average starting December 12, when it was 70, and has since been 77, 65 and 44 through December 15. No new sunspots emerged on December 9-12, then sunspot group 1376 appeared on December 13, and 1377 on December 14. The latest USAF/NOAA forecast has solar flux for December 16-19 at 124, then 122 on December 20 and 120 on December 21-23. Then it jumps to 150 on December 24-26, 140 on December 27-28, and 145 on December 29 through January 4. It then rises to a maximum of 160 on January 8-14, 2012. Predicted planetary A index is 5 on December 16-25, 8 on December 26-29, 5 on December 30 through January 4, 2012, 8 on January 5-6, then 5 on January 7-21. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions December 16-18, quiet to unsettled December 19, unsettled December 20, and quiet December 21-22. Ed McKie, KB5GT of Yazoo City, Mississippi wrote in about a tool on http://www.spaceweather.com for looking at past solar activity by just entering a date. It is at http://spaceweather.com/glossary/sunspotplotter.htm and Ed notes that it hasn't been updated with new data as of a couple of years back. No word from the spaceweather.com web master, but perhaps it wasn't meant to be updated, only providing looks at past sunspot activity prior to the date it was created. By the way, for a look at Ed's fine old radios, log in at QRZ.com (free) and go to http://www.qrz.com/db/kb5gt. Click on the photo in the upper right for a closer look. Propagation reports for the ARRL 10 Meter contest last weekend were positive. Randy Crews, W7TJ of Spokane, Washington commented, Conditions during the ARRL 10 Meter Contest were great as expected with the higher solar flux. Personally I feel 10 meter propagation has not been this good for the contest since 2002. He noted that for 2002 and 2003, solar flux in early December was approximately 150 and 102. For 2010 and 2011 it was 87 and 140. Randy noted, What a great change! Listening to the QSOs, it was like we all had a new horse to ride. Rick Cincotta, KI4FW of Arlington, Virginia noted some curious short skip propagation last weekend. He writes, During the 10m contest on the East Coast in the morning and early afternoon (both days), when the band was opened to Europe and the US West Coast (S9+), I could hear stations, very weakly, calling from locations nearby, closer than the usual E-S 'doughnut' that I'm familiar with from 6M (these guys were from eastern OH, southern NY and northern NJ, RI, CT, NC). They never got louder than S1, but I could make out their call signs if I cleaned the wax out of my ears and held my breath -- so to speak. I'm QRP, so I was only able to work a couple of them in NY. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation. Find more good information and tutorials on propagation at http://myplace.frontier.com/~k9la/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation. Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins. Sunspot numbers for December 8 through 14 were 142, 116, 90, 103, 70, 77, and 65, with a mean of 94.7. 10.7 cm flux was 144.8, 143.5, 140, 134.3, 131.5, 133.1, and 132, with a mean of 137. Estimated planetary A indices were 1, 1, 6, 4, 3, 3, and 1, with a mean of 2.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 3, 6, 5, 4, 5, and 2, with a mean of 3.9. /EX --- To unsubscribe or subscribe to this list. Please send a message to imail...@njdxa.org In the message body put either unsubscribe dx-news or subscribe dx-news This is the DX-NEWS reflector sponsored by the NJDXA http://njdxa.org ---
[DX-NEWS] ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP51 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51 ARLP051 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 23, 2010 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA This bulletin is posting nearly a day early, because ARRL Headquarters is closed on December 24. Next week the bulletin will also be out late Thursday instead of the usual Friday distribution, as ARRL is closed on December 31. There is no ARRL Letter until January 6, 2011. Sunspots disappeared this week. Five days with no spots is the longest since May 9-19, 2010, when we saw 11 days in a row in which the Sun was spotless. Since then there has only been the occasional day or two that was spot-free. April 2010 saw 13 consecutive days with no spots, followed by one day in which the sunspot number was 12 (indicating the emergence of a sunspot group with two spots), only to be followed by another spotless day, April 29. As this bulletin is being written early Thursday, December 23, there may be a spot emerging right in the center of our Sun, when viewed from Earth. It is visible as a white area when viewing the image from the STEREO mission at http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov, although this image just shows magnetically active areas in a lighter shade, which does not always correspond to areas with sunspots. Viewing the rest of the image out to the eastern horizon (left side, on solar images) shows no dramatic activity. Unfortunately, the Solar Dynamics Observatory Joint Science Operations Center has experienced a disk controller failure, and until it can be replaced, the latest image they have is from December 19. There is a recent H-Alpha image at http://www.solarmonitor.org. With no spots for five days, the average daily sunspot number for December 16-22 dropped nearly 23 points to 4.9. Average daily solar flux declined 8 points, or a little over 9%, to 80.1. The noon reading at the Penticton observatory showed the solar flux rose today to 80.1, precisely the arithmetic average listed below for the prior seven days. Although still pretty weak, solar flux hasn't been this high since last weekend, on Sunday, December 19. NOAA/USAF sees a low solar flux of 78 until December 26-27, when they predict a flux value of 80, then 82 for December 28-29, 84 on December 30, and 90 on December 31 and January 1. They also show low geomagnetic activity with a daily A index of 5, except for December 25, with an index value of 7. They show the A index going back to 5 until the third week in January 2011. Geophysical Institute Prague always has a more detailed outlook on geomagnetic activity, and they show quiet conditions for December 24, quiet to unsettled December 25, quiet December 26, quiet to unsettled December 27, and unsettled December 28-29. For some, a dead quiet A index with no sunspots might be ideal for the Winter Solstice, which was on December 21 at 2338z in the Northern Hemisphere. Long nights with low seasonal noise from lightning signal good conditions on 80 and 160 meters, and with quiet geomagnetic conditions, even better. Chris Scibelli, NU1O lives in grid square FN32rb in Longmeadow, Massachusetts. On 10 meters he runs 100 watts into a 3 element beam at 55 feet. He sent us a message after reading about the December 14 E-skip opening on 6 meters in the last bulletin. Chris writes, On December 13 after the 10 meter contest ended we had about a 4 1/2 hour E-skip opening to GA, TN, NC, and VA. Most of the guys were running ground mounted verticals with 100 watts. I went QRT at 0500z as I put in a full 36 hours in the contest and that was enough radio for a weekend. I don't know if there was any relation to what you wrote about but what was ironic was we did not have decent E layer openings during the contest. Most of the states I worked at the normal E layer distance were extremely weak -- about an S1. I did have an opening to the West Coast on both the 11th and 12th but signals weren't very strong, either. Toward the end of the contest on Sunday I had a great opening to LU and PY. Most were 59 to 59 plus. Brett DeWitt, W0BLD lives in Southwest Missouri, near Springfield, and says that he worked a lot of E-skip on 6 meter SSB to both the east and west coasts on December 13. He runs 100 watts to a 3 element Yagi at 25 feet, and you can see a log of his contacts by querying the DX Sherlock database at http://www.vhfdx.info/spots/index.php. He wrote, The opening lasted for several hours. I try to log MOST of my VHF QSOs on the vhfdx.info site. Worked QSOs from Myrtle Beach SC to Los Angeles CA. Some contacts I worked a couple different times over several hours apart. Florida mainly came in first for a couple hours along with SC, VA, GA, MS and AL. Then later in the opening NM, AZ, CA started booming in here with CO in and out. I think I was able to work one Colorado station. There were also openings several days after the 13th. The band was real good
[DX-NEWS] ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP51 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51 ARLP051 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 11, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA Finally! A sunspot appeared on Wednesday, December 9, giving us a daily sunspot number of 13. This followed 16 days of no sunspots, and again on December 10 the sunspot number was 13. The new group is number 1034, and it is a solar Cycle 24 spot, as all sunspots have been since number 1016 on April 29-30, 2009. This weekend is the annual ARRL 10-Meter Contest. Will there be enough sunspot activity to enhance 10-meter propagation? The latest prediction for solar flux shows it rising 75-77 on December 11-12, and staying at 77 through December 17, which probably correlates with the new sunspot moving toward the center of the solar disk. To significantly raise the MUF to enhance 10 meter signals over most paths takes more sunspot activity than we are seeing this week, although every bit helps. But this contest often depends on sporadic-E skip and the effect of ionized meteor trails during the Geminids meteor shower, which should reach a peak just a few hours after the contest ends on Sunday. Geminids meteor showers have intensified with each passing year as Earth moves deeper into the debris stream from extinct comet 3200 Phaethon. Back in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP005 earlier this year (see http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2009-arlp005.html) we reproduced a letter written 34 years ago by Ed Tilton, W1HDQ, the originator of this bulletin. Ed talked about meteor enhanced 10 meter propagation during this contest. We were watching the current sunspot move toward the horizon a few days ago, via the STEREO spacecraft (http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/) and wished the whole Sun were visible, which should happen in 2010. Currently STEREO sees about 86% of the Sun. It should reach 90% on June 29, 2010 between 0027-0040 UTC, and 95% coverage on October 12, 2010 between 1252-1259 UTC. A view of real time MUF maps at http://www.spacew.com/www/realtime.php shows that during daylight over low latitudes the MUF is going above 10 meters over the past couple of days. A couple of 160 meter notes since the recent contest: Randy Whiting, KC9KHG of Woodstock, Illinois says he upgraded to General class in March 2007, and at the time told locals he was putting up a 160 meter inverted V with a 60 foot apex. They told him he would work only two or three hundred miles. The week before last he worked KC7YM in Wyoming, a distance of 1,079 miles between their stations. Then December 3 he worked G3JMJ, a distance of 3,971 miles. Both were on CW. Markus Hansen, VE7CA of North Vancouver, British Columbia writes, Wow, conditions were amazing during the recent ARRL 160 meter Contest. I was amazed how easy it was to work NH, RI, DE, MD VA, NC and GA from my QTH here on the west coast. I am only running 100 watts and a very weird shaped 160 meters loop strung around my city- sized lot. The KH6s were bending my S meter in the mornings at sunrise and JA3YBK was pounding in at well over S9 at 1434Z Sunday AM. Good fun! Hans Goldschmidt, SM5KI says he is 82 years old and has been a ham over six decades. He is in the center of Stockholm, and really was shocked when I put up in a nearby low tree an end fed half-wave wire, the feedpoint only 1.5 meters above the ground. Right away I was in a 50 minute long QSO with a station in North Carolina. My signals S7-9! There seems to be a daily window around 1300Z to the Eastern US States on 14 MHz and I can work K8SL and others daily with S7-9. In the morning on 14 MHz we have the usual winter conditions and the band is completely dead right now until about 0700Z. Still the same, last week I worked daily SU9HP, a Swede on holidays down there, on 14 at 0730Z with Q5 signals every morning, when there was almost no other signal to be heard on the band. I say this because despite black-outs and the present sunspot minimum conditions, you may still find a useful path to some DX spot on the globe. Sometimes it is easier to find a rare DX on a dead band. There is also less QRM as the competing stations have given up even to try. Years ago I was shocked to hear on 14 MHz two stations, not too strong, on a completely dead band during a blackout, talking, what it seems to be locally. They were in YJ8 and we had an unexpected QSO. Similar QSOs occurred in the past and many were near the equator. Whatever THAT means? Finally a suggestion: Do not give up using the DX-bands just because they seem to be dead. There may be short selective openings to some parts of the globe. Do not rely on those awful DX clusters but LISTEN, LISTEN! Thanks, Hans! Good advice. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k...@arrl.net. For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service
[DX-NEWS] ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP51 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51 ARLP051 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 5, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA This was another quiet week, in which the geomagnetic indicators hovered around 0, and there were no sunspots. Look at the A values for mid-latitude, high latitude, and global at http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt. Sunday through Tuesday of this week (November 30 through December 2) was another unusually quiet period, similar to November 11, November 14, and November 18-24. The A index -- a linear value -- is calculated from the eight K index readings for the day, and those are logarithmic values. It is somewhat similar to calculating decibels from voltage readings across a known load, only in reverse. For an expanded view the web site, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DGD.txt shows us these values for the calendar quarter, back to October 1. Note that big changes in the daily A index reflect relatively small changes in the K index. The K index is calculated from magnetometer readings. Middle latitude is from Fredericksburg, Virginia and the high latitude numbers are from a magnetometer near Fairbanks, Alaska. The estimated planetary numbers are calculated using data from a number of magnetometers at various latitudes. Right now on Friday morning, there are one or two sunspots trying to break through. The magnetic activity at our Sun's surface in this area is not quite at a level to indicate a visible spot. Compare forecasts at, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html from USAF/NOAA from December 3 and December 4. The December 3 prediction shows solar flux at 69 for December 5-7, and 70 for December 8-10. Earlier forecasts had a flux of 70 for only December 8-9, but now on Thursday's forecast (December 4), we see the flux value of 70 extended to a whole week, December 5-11. The change to a predicted solar flux of 70 may coincide with emerging sunspots. The daily forecast is posted usually after 2100z. But the December 4 forecast has a second set of values, updated at 1149z on December 5. It shows a higher A index prediction (changed from 12 to 15) for December 5. You can often see a day's forecast a little earlier by changing the URL on the latest one. At the end of the URL (web address) for December 3 are the characters 120345DF.txt, and it changes to 120445DF.txt for December 4. Some time prior to 2100z December 5 you may be able to see the latest forecast by changing that URL ending to 120545DF.txt, and hitting enter or F5 to refresh, before the link appears on the main page. Expect higher geomagnetic activity today (December 5) due to a solar wind stream. On December 4 the high latitude A index rose to 20. As mentioned above, the predicted planetary A index for December 5 is 15. A note from Mike Reid, WE0H, of Saint Francis, Minnesota mentions great low-frequency propagation (way below 160 meters) coinciding with the quiet geomagnetic indicators. Mike operates on 600 meters (500 KHz, just below the bottom of the North American AM radio band) with an experimental license, WD2XSH/16. He reported on December 2, I worked a 600m station in Southern Mississippi at 0700z this morning from Minnesota, with armchair CW copy on both ends. Only running 90w output here. Very light fading and zero background noise. 600m has been real good for a couple weeks or so now. He continues, I read this morning on the QRP-L QTH reflector that the HF bands are completely dead, even 160m. Strange when the HF bands go dead that 600m opens wide open. 1750 and 2200 meters are also in excellent shape. 600m and 2200m Part 5 stations have been crossing into Europe the past few nights with real strong signals. You can see a picture of the base of his 600-meter antenna at, http://www.qrz.com/we0h. Also on that page is a link to Mike's personal web site, and if you click through, you can eventually get to http://www.we0h.us/lf.html, with more info on his LF activity. Recent Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP050 mentioned Tree, N6TR and his suggestions for a 160-meter antenna. Regarding the capacitor, he commented, You can use a piece of coax as the capacitor when you determine you have something that will work. Cut it long and trim it. For high power, you might need to treat the end so it doesn't arc. I spread out the shield and stick the center conductor inside a ceramic insulator. We received quite a bit of mail in the past week that we can't cover in this bulletin. We hope to get to this later. This included notes from N8II about good conditions on 160 meters with day-to-day variations, N0JK about 6-meter openings, including thoughts on meteor showers instead of sporadic-E being the predominate mode at times, and WB4SLM on 30 meter mid-day openings to Europe. Don't forget the ARRL 160-meter contest this weekend. See rules
[DX-NEWS] ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP51 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51 ARLP051 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 7, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA More sunspots emerged this week, with every December day so far showing spots. In addition to the sunspot numbers listed through Wednesday at the end of this bulletin, Thursday, December 6 had a sunspot number of 29. The daily sunspot number has not been this high since mid-July. Two spots are now visible, 977 and 978, and the total coverage of the solar surface by sunspots on Thursday is four times Wednesday's coverage. Average daily sunspot number for this report is over twice last week's, rising from 5.4 to 11.1. Sunspots will probably continue until at least December 13. Geomagnetic numbers have been extremely low, with average daily planetary A index dropping from 8.7 to 2, and average mid-latitude A index declining from 6.3 to 1.1 for the week. Check the quarterly geomagnetic indices since October 1 at, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DGD.txt, and note the incredibly stable numbers, especially at high and mid-latitudes, around December 2-6. You don't see strings of zeroes such as this during the higher portions of the solar cycle, and it seems perfectly timed with last week's ARRL 160 meter contest. Heightened or unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are not expected until December 17. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions December 7-9, quiet to unsettled December 10, unsettled December 11-12, and quiet to unsettled December 13. This year we've been tracking a 3-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers to help spot trends that may indicate the bottom of the solar cycle. Here are the 3-month averages since December 2005. Dec 05 40.6 Jan 06 32.4 Feb 06 18.1 Mar 06 27.7 Apr 06 38.5 May 06 39.7 Jun 06 28.9 Jul 06 23.3 Aug 06 23.5 Sep 06 21.2 Oct 06 24.1 Nov 06 23.1 Dec 06 27.3 Jan 07 22.7 Feb 07 18.5 Mar 07 11.2 Apr 07 12.2 May 07 15.8 Jun 07 18.7 Jul 07 15.4 Aug 07 10.2 Sep 07 5.4 Oct 07 3 The average for September, October and November, centered on October, at 3 is the lowest yet for this side of Cycle 23. This number was derived by adding all daily sunspot numbers for those three months, then dividing the sum (270) by the number of days, which is 91. The result is approximately 2.967, very close to 3. Monthly sunspot number averages for this year, January through November, are 28.2, 17.3, 9.8, 6.9, 19.8, 20.7, 15.6, 9.9, 4.8, 1.3 and 2.9. October's average of 1.3 is lower than September and October of 1996, during the minimum between Cycles 22 and 23. The monthly averages for August through November, 1996 were 20.7, 2.9, 2.3 and 25.6. A new table of predicted sunspot and solar flux values for Cycle 24 is in this week's Preliminary Report and Forecast of Geophysical Data at, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/ on pages 10-11, December 4 issue. For the past few years the prediction table showed no data beyond this month. The table now runs an additional eight years, through December 2015. Note the two sets of predicted smoothed sunspot data, reflecting the split consensus among members of the Cycle 24 prediction panel at this year's Space Weather Workshop in Boulder, Colorado. The late decline in Cycle 23 led the group away from an earlier consensus for a strong Cycle 24, and now the panel is split. One faction predicts moderately strong sunspot activity for Cycle 24, the other, moderately weak. You can see from the table of values that the strong camp shows a peak centered near August-November 2011, while the weak cycle faction predicts their peak to occur in May-October 2012. To get an idea of the relative intensity of these predictions, peruse a table of smoothed sunspot numbers at, http://tinyurl.com/3yzcyz, showing over 3,000 months of smoothed sunspot numbers back to July, 1749, nearly one-quarter millennia. I'm not suggesting comparison of the predicted values with anything further back than the past few cycles, but it is there if you need it. Another view of predicted values for this ending cycle and the next one is at, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict.txt, updated monthly. Another prediction, this time from the Australian government is at, http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6. Joe Reisert, W1JR of Amherst, New Hampshire sent an informative email concerning great polar openings on 80 and 40 meters to Europe at our sunrise. Joe continued, Some ops may not be aware of this propagation mainly to Scandinavia from Eastern and Central USA (perhaps even Western USA). It has already started with LA6WEA and SM2EKM coming in strong. This path usually lasts through late January. This is the time of year when the path is sort of gray line as the Northern Europeans may not be in total darkness. Joe says signals can be quite strong, often have auroral flutter, and it doesn't take an elaborate
[DX-NEWS] ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP51 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51 ARLP051 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 8, 2006 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA The past couple of days have seen robust solar activity, with flares and strong solar wind. On Wednesday and Thursday, December 6 and 7, the planetary A index rose to 28, then 25. On December 5 a large X9 class solar flare emerged from the sun's eastern side, but it wasn't earth directed. This was from a large sunspot 930, which drove the sunspot number to 59 on the same day as the solar flare, the same level as five days earlier. Wednesday, December 6 saw a smaller X6 flare, and currently early Friday morning we are seeing a strong solar wind, with the interplanetary magnetic field pointing south, making us vulnerable. There is a chance of more flares, which might be bad news for the ARRL 10 Meter Contest this weekend. Flare activity caused a 10.7 cm solar flux reading at Penticton, British Columbia to jump off the scale. The noon reading showed a solar flux of 573.4, and had to be adjusted downward to 103 for the day. Currently a forecast from NOAA and the U.S. Air Force calls for a planetary A index on December 8-12 of 30, 50, 40, 20 and 10. The predicted A index of 50 and 40 for December 9-10 does not bode well for the weekend contest. Even if the geomagnetic activity is this strong, there still should be some north-south trans-equatorial propagation on 10 meters. But here we see an average sunspot number of 52 for this week, 35 points higher than last week, and of course the downside is greater chance for solar flares. There is a new prediction for the sunspot cycle minimum. Until recently, the minimum was predicted to have a smoothed sunspot number of 6 centered on March and April 2007. The new forecast moves the minimum out a little further and not as low, with a smoothed sunspot number of 7 for May 2007. You can see the difference in the table on page 11 of the SEC Preliminary Report and Forecast for this week, compared with the issue from four weeks ago. The old forecast is at, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1627.pdf on page 11, and the new one at, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/pdf/prf1631.pdf , also on page 11. This later and higher minimum makes sense, because we haven't seen weeks in a row of 0 sunspot days. Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP050 mentioned a theory about cooling in the upper ionosphere causing greater density in lower layers. It turns out that data from different locations shows different results, and the net effect doesn't look strong or conclusive. If you do a web search for terms such as long term ionosphere change you'll find abstracts for several scientific papers on the subject. The most interesting thing I ran across (thanks to K9LA) was the map on page 12 of the PDF at, http://tinyurl.com/yyn4ut. The hmF2 referred to in this document is the height of the densest portion of the F2 layer, with positive trends at some ionosonde stations and negative at others. The trend for change in height of the F2 layer is also very slight. It comes out to about two and a half miles per decade, or .41 km per year, for ionosonde stations that show any effect. Jon Jones, N0JK commented that recently in the CQ Worldwide CW Contest even with solar activity so low, HC8N on 10 meters worked 1,838 stations in 32 zones and 113 countries. Also, Dave Deatrick, WA8OLD way up in Northern Michigan next to Sault Ste Marie, Ontario, remarks that he's had great luck recently on 40 meters with a shortened dipole at 28 feet and 100 watts. He worked 5A7A, CN2R and several European stations. He is surprised at what he can work on 40 meters with a simple antenna and low power. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/ . Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for November 30 through December 6 were 59, 58, 55, 46, 43, 59 and 44 with a mean of 52. 10.7 cm flux was 84.1, 84.2, 87.3, 86.5, 92.8, 102.4, and 103, with a mean of 91.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 28, 4, 2, 3, 1, 2 and 28 with a mean of 9.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 15, 3, 1, 2, 1, 2 and 15, with a mean of 5.6. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for
[DX-NEWS] ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP51 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51 ARLP051 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 2, 2005 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA Daily sunspot and solar flux averages over the past week were down, and the geomagnetic indices were up. Average daily sunspot numbers were down nearly 15 points to 33.7, and average daily solar flux declined nearly 13 points to 84.2. Currently sunspot and solar flux numbers are rising due to sunspot 826, which is growing rapidly and moving toward the center of the solar disk, giving it maximum influence here on Earth. It also could be a source of flares, which would not be good for the ARRL 160 Meter CW Contest this weekend. Predicted solar flux for today (Friday) through Monday December 5 is 100, 105, 105 and 105. The predicted planetary A index for the same days is 15, 12, 8 and 5, although those numbers will be higher if sunspot 826 becomes especially active. Back in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP048 (see http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2005-arlp048.html) there was a report of WB5AGZ in Stillwater, Oklahoma picking up a 10 meter repeater from New York (KQ2H) during the middle of the night and into early morning. We now have another similar report, also from Oklahoma. Stan Stephens, WA6SKD of Midwest City, Oklahoma wrote in with this narrative: I would like to confirm Martin McCormick's (WB5AGZ) observations from Stillwater, Oklahoma on late night 10 meter FM signals from KQ2H on 29.620 MHZ. I am in Midwest City, Oklahoma (near OKC). I monitor the 10 meter FM band always looking for a contact or two, since I am a night owl. I have observed KQ2H many times after midnight, almost too numerous to keep track. These openings have not just been this month, but also spring and summer. What I hear does sound like a link with stations having no idea they are being copied 59+ in Oklahoma. He continues, Now for the good part, these late night signals are not limited to KQ2H. I have also noted signals from the southern U.S. and Midwest with an occasional California 10 FM repeater. Also, like Martin, I notice no other signals on 10M, and 12M, 15M, and 17M also with no signals. Trying to raise these repeaters can be difficult on my Azden PCS 2800 (10 watts and Ringo), but when I do get a response from the machine no one is home! Stan goes on to say, In general I find the 10 meter FM band is open a lot more than it is given credit for, I am not sure what conditions allow this but no complaints on this end. It is cool making a 10 meter FM contact with a distant station at 0300 in the morning. I have been on 10M FM with my Azden for 23 years, my log books really show varied conditions on 10M FM. Although some years have been better than others, this includes sunspot cycle minimums. This is very interesting, and shows us that 10 meters may be open more often than we think, even in the middle of the night when there shouldn't be any conventional propagation. Remember that the ARRL 10 Meter Contest is coming up next weekend, December 9-11. November ended on Wednesday, so let's look at the monthly averages for solar flux and sunspot numbers. The average daily sunspot numbers for the months September 2004 through November 2005 were 50, 77.9, 70.5, 34.7, 52, 45.4, 41, 41.5, 65.4, 59.8, 68.7, 65.6, 39.2, 13 and 32.2. Average daily solar flux for the same months was 103, 106, 113.7, 95, 102.3, 97.2, 89.9, 85.9, 99.5, 93.7, 96.5, 92.4, 91.9, 76.6 and 86.3. It looks like activity bounced back a bit in November, but look for the general trend to be down until the sunspot minimum, which should be about a year from now, or maybe a little longer. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation and an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information Service propagation page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. An archive of past bulletins is found at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Sunspot numbers for November 24 through 30 were 30, 39, 30, 26, 27, 27 and 57 with a mean of 33.7. 10.7 cm flux was 86.6, 79.9, 80.8, 80.7, 81.9, 84.7, and 94.7, with a mean of 84.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 10, 5, 2, 9, 5 and 10 with a mean of 7.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 8, 3, 2, 6, 6 and 9, with a mean of 5.7. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php scroll to bottom for subscribe/unsubscribe options --
[DX-News] ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP51 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51 ARLP051 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 12, 2003 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP051 ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA Declining sunspot numbers and high geomagnetic activity made rough conditions this week. Average daily sunspot numbers for the week dropped 57% from the previous week, and average daily solar flux was down by 34%. The average daily planetary A index more than tripled to 28.7. Currently earth is inside a high-speed solar wind. The interplanetary magnetic field points north, and geomagnetic conditions would be even more active if it pointed south. The wind is from a large coronal hole, and the stream began affecting earth on December 8. There aren't any sunspots currently facing the earth, and sunspot 517 is leaving the visible solar disk, while 520 and 521 are coming around the opposite limb. The active region that caused all the wild space weather in October and November is around sunspot 488, which is now crossing the sun's far side. Its return to the earth side should cause a rise in the sunspot and solar flux numbers. Solar flux is expected to stay below 100 until next Tuesday, December 16, and then rise suddenly from December 18-19, next Thursday and Friday. Unfortunately, conditions should be rough for the ARRL 10 Meter Contest this weekend. Predicted solar flux values for Friday through Monday, December 12-15, are 85, 90, 90 and 95. Predicted planetary A index numbers for the same period are 40, 35, 25 and 20. 10-meter paths really need a high MUF value to sustain them, and the low sunspot numbers we're seeing now don't help. You can get an idea how conditions might differ from past years by trying some historic numbers on the W6ELprop program, mentioned frequently in past bulletins. For this weekend, a path from California to Cleveland (W6 to W8 in the program's atlas) using a flux of 90 and K index of 4 would yield a rather narrow opening, probably only reliable from 1800-1900z. A path from Dallas to Brazil (W5 to PY in the atlas) shows a poor probability for a path (although Seattle to PY looks much better). On the ARRL website you can sample values from past bulletins at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Looking back at 2002 to bulletin number 53, the average solar flux for Friday through Sunday of the 10-meter contest weekend was 185, and the K index must have been quite low, because planetary A indices were 7, 11 and 9. Using the flux value of 185 and a K index of 2, the California to Cleveland path looked fantastic from 1530 through 2330z, and the other paths looked much better as well. What a difference a year can make in a changing solar cycle. As mentioned in past bulletins, you can download the W6ELprop software free at http://www.qsl.net/w6elprop/. Sunspot numbers for December 4 through 10 were 115, 88, 87, 53, 49, 23 and 46 with a mean of 65.9. 10.7 cm flux was 115.8, 111.7, 108.9, 92, 93.7, 92.2 and 89.2, with a mean of 100.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 9, 43, 22, 15, 39, 31 and 42, with a mean of 28.7. /EX -- Subscribe/unsubscribe, feedback, FAQ, problems, etc DX-NEWS http://njdxa.org/dx-news DX-CHAT: http://njdxa.org/dx-chat To post a message, DX NEWS items only, [EMAIL PROTECTED] Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news%40njdxa.org --
