[DX-NEWS] ARLP054 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP054 ARLP054 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP54 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 54 ARLP054 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 31, 2009 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP054 ARLP054 Propagation de K7RA Here we are on the last day of the year, with finally some very positive indicators for Cycle 24. Except for Christmas day, since December 9 sunspots have been visible every day. Average daily sunspot numbers for the week December 24-30 were 12.9, an 18.5 point drop from the previous week, which was a 10.3 point rise from the previous week, December 10-16. Average daily solar flux dropped from 82.8 to 76.2 from the December 17-23 reporting week, but the December 30 forecast from the U.S. Air Force predicts a solar flux value of 79 from December 31 to January 3, 80 for January 4-9, and 85 for January 10-18. They also predict a steady and stable planetary A index of five through February 13. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet for the first week of January. You can get an update on the Air Force/NOAA prediction after 2100 UTC at, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html. Since December 26 we've been blessed with new sunspot group 1039, which is now just past the zero degree meridian, referenced to Earth. This is the spot in the center of the solar image. This is the sixth new sunspot group to emerge in December. After today we will know the three-month moving daily sunspot average centered on November, and it looks close to the average centered on August, 2007, which was 10.17. The moving average has not been above ten since then. The daily average for the month of December should be close to 15.7, the highest monthly average since March, 2008. A number of sharp-eyed readers caught the major gaffe in the last bulletin, when I dozed off and with my fingers on autopilot I typed Spring Equinox when I should have said Summer Solstice. Needless to say, Spring is not six months off. The Vernal (Spring) Equinox is only 79 days from today. Thanks to (in order of notification) N5UWY, WE5I, KW6G, KF7FIU, W3DM, N0LNO, and WA3VKG for noticing and not having too much fun at my expense. Joe Reisert, W1JR, an exceptional low band DXer sent some comments about the solar minimum. I commented that the exceptionally quiet conditions are remarkable, and may partially make up for a lack of solar activity. At least we aren't bothered by large flares. Joe responded, I really don't think the low bands are that improved over times when the sunspots were there. Yes, it was nice to work TX3A and K4M on 160 meters for new ones but I still can't get JT1CO to hear me! Sometimes JAs spot me on 160 meters but no JAs call me! Except for early last February when one morning I worked 7 JAs (!) in a row starting at my sunrise (!), I haven't seen any really great Asian openings. I guess I just have to hang in there. I did land VK9XX on 80 near our sunset for number 341 about a month ago. That was a real thrill as he was only working Europeans and somehow I broke the pile up. Rod Vorndam, K9ROD of Rye, Colorado wrote last week: The past couple of weeks have seen openings to Europe at sunrise on 20 meters. This Gray Line Effect has made for several strong contacts. I worked I2OHO (Italy), ON5CD (Belgium), HB9RDE (Switzerland), and received several others including OZ1IKY (Denmark) and S51ZZZ (Slovenia). These are my first European contacts into the Western part of the US. Mark Lunday, WD4ELG of Greensboro, North Carolina has a nice blog with observations on DX from his new QTH. Read it at http://wd4elg.blogspot.com/. Mark wrote, on Christmas Day: One thing I have noticed recently with the slight up tick in solar activity, is that 40 meters now reminds me of 20 meters during the solar peak. Even during daylight, there is DX open to somewhere on 40 in winter months. The exception is high noon. But mornings and late afternoons have LOTS of activity on 40. This afternoon, I copied HS0CZY/4 on 40 meters about an hour before my sunset. The last time I remember something like this was 1 January 2005 when I worked YB1A on 40 CW late in the afternoon. On Monday at 0100 local, I heard a fluttery signal RST 529, I copy JA7DLE, call him twice, he gets my call, BAM he is in the log. I have ONE JA QSO ALL-TIME on 80, and this is my SECOND EVER on 40. This is with a single vertical and 100 watts. What is neat about this is that it happens at 0100 local while I can hear EU stations 599 AND South Cook Islands DXpedition 559. So I am copying Pacific, JA, AND Europe at the same time. When the Sun throws lemons, make your own DX/lemonade. I heard 4S7NE on 40 CW at 2030 local, just after his sunrise. I have tried to hear Nelson since I worked him on 17 meters back in 2005, but I have never heard him since. Amazing! Thanks Mark. Bob Doherty, K1VV of Lakeville, Massachusetts reminds us that tonight is Straight Key Night! Take a look at, http://www.qrz.com/db/K1VV/1262178636 and
[DX-NEWS] ARLP054 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP054 ARLP054 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP54 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 54 ARLP054 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 26, 2008 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP054 ARLP054 Propagation de K7RA Snow has fallen all week here in Seattle, and the Sun is still void of spots. We last saw sunspots on December 10-12. Solar flux (a measure of 2.8 GHz radio energy from our Sun) has been running between 68-69 for weeks, except for December 10-12, when it was 70-71, coincident with the appearance of sunspots. Now NOAA and the US Air Force are predicting solar flux for today, December 26, at 70, and December 27 through January 5 at 71. Perhaps this indicates sunspot activity rotating into view. On December 7, a possible sunspot group was detected on our Sun's far side, and on December 23 another spot, this time in the southern hemisphere on the far side of the Sun. The same NOAA/USAF forecast shows more of the very quiet conditions we've seen for some time now, with a planetary A index at 5. Some unsettled conditions are forecast for January 1-2, with the planetary A index rising to 8, then 10, before settling back to 5 again. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions continuing December 26-30, quiet to unsettled December 31, and unsettled January 1. Duane Heise, AA6EE of Ramona, California is interested in calculating sunrise/sunset times for his location. A good resource is the US Naval Observatory. For details see, http://aa.usno.navy.mil/data/docs/RS_OneDay.php. If you need to convert a location from decimal notation to degrees/minutes/seconds, it is easy. For instance, suppose you have latitude of 47.857 degrees. Multiply .857 by 60 to get 51.42 minutes; multiply .42 by 60 to get 25.2 seconds. Now you have 47 degrees, 51 minutes, 25 seconds. Since we have rounded the seconds off to 25, we can go the other direction to demonstrate the method for deriving the corresponding decimal notation. For example, (25/3600)+(51/60)+47 is approximately 47.856944 degrees. We've had more comments about the 10 meter contest of a couple of weeks back. Ken Wood, N5NX of The Colony, Texas uses a very simple 10 meter antenna and about 90 watts. He wrote, Sunday morning of the 10m contest, there was a strong opening from Dallas, TX area to the north. I easily worked MN, MI, OH, IN, and PA. Dave Stucky, AB7Q of Bend, Oregon writes, Here in Central Oregon, the conditions were a pleasant surprise. Saturday morning started with K7ES in Hillsboro (Portland) with a strong signal here in Bend about 150 miles away. His signal was heard throughout most of the openings on both days. After that some S.F. Bay Area stations were heard and worked, then nothing but Colorado stations, most very strong. The Es then swung south with nothing heard but AZ. Behind the AZ stations were a few LU and PY, I worked LU1HF. Then briefly, the east coast was there and I worked SC, GA and KS. This was all between 8am and 12pm PST. The pattern was very similar on Sunday morning with some Southern California stations there with Arizona. Again toward the end of the opening LS1D was worked both CW and phone. My assumption is that the Es to South America was multi-hop in conjunction with equatorial Es. No real activity to speak of in the evenings, though some occasional scattered voices were heard. I was reading about Es on the computer while I was casually operating. What an amazing propagation mode! All in all, in casual operation I worked 60 stations in 10 states (OR, CA, AZ, WY, CO, UT, NM, KS, SC, GA) along with LU and PJ2. I heard the CX station pile-up but did not get through. I was using 75 watts to a tri-bander at 55 feet. Jon Jones, N0JK of Wichita, Kansas ran 5 watts in the 10 meter contest to the same 100 foot wire tacked to his house that he used for the 160 meter contest. He wrote, I could work most stations heard on Es and even a few on meteors if I timed my calls on over-dense bursts. Nice Es opening Saturday evening to Florida. Sunday all day Es starting at 1500 UTC to northeast, with K1ZZ CT starting things off. Later Es to Atlantic seaboard and southeast states. Best DX was PJ2T and LU1HF! They sounded like an Es to F2 type link. I had strong Es to LA and Florida the same time they were in. I almost logged PY3MHZ, he heard me but faded as he gave his exchange. Thanks also to XE2S and XE2/N7DD for Mexico. Very loud Es to Colorado at the end of the contest. K0FX, K0MF, W0ETT, etc 599+ 60! Ran off 11 Colorado Qs in 5 minutes. Like shooting ducks in a barrel for a flea power station. Picked up KD0S SD and K0PK MN in the last few minutes for new mults. Lotsa radio fun for 5 watts and a 4 dollar wire antenna. You can read soapbox comments for the 10 meter contest at, http://www.arrl.org/contests/soapbox/index.html?con_id=164. For regular weekly updates of 10 meter activity in Europe, check Tony's 10 Meter report at, http://www.southgatearc.org/bands/10metres/. Bill Van
[DX-NEWS] ARLP054 Propagation de K7RA
SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP054 ARLP054 Propagation de K7RA ZCZC AP54 QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 54 ARLP054 From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA December 28, 2007 To all radio amateurs SB PROP ARL ARLP054 ARLP054 Propagation de K7RA Last week this bulletin reported sunspot 978 rotating from view. Now through a process called helioseismic holography, an image of the Sun's far side shows the spot fading away. 978 was first visible December 6, and squarely faced earth on December 12. Perhaps January 2 or 3 we will again see 978 peeking around the eastern limb, if it hasn't by then faded completely. No sunspots at all this week, and average daily solar flux was down over 12 points from the previous week. Geomagnetic activity was still low, and down slightly. Over the next week the planetary A index is predicted to be 5 on each day, a low number indicating a stable and quiet geomagnetic field. Solar flux is expected to stay around 72 for Dec 28-30, rising to 73 on December 31, 75 for the first few days of the new year, then up to 80 and 85 by January 4-5. This indicates an expectation for the return of sunspot 978 or possibly other sunspots around the same time. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet geomagnetic conditions December 28-30, quiet to unsettled December 31, and quiet January 1-3. Michael Mark, VE4MM was portable /6Y5 December 10-19 from Runaway Bay, Jamaica when he went to visit a new home built by a friend from Winnipeg. Michael brought a 2-element beam, and occupied the top floor with an ocean view. He worked all the five bands from 10 to 20 meters, concentrating on 17 meters. This was during the recent robust sunspot activity, and it was a real treat experiencing HF conditions from 18.46 degrees North Latitude, far different from his home at 49.84 degrees. He commented, I made my own conditions on 10 and 12 meters just by calling CQ. I think he means that when first tuning the band, it sounded dead, but came to life once VE4MM/6Y5 was heard. All together he made almost 1400 contacts, most of them on 17 meters. We received more reports of 10 meter surprises, probably due to sporadic-E, although it doesn't seem the season for it. Hank Pfizenmayer, K7HP of Phoenix, Arizona heard horrible 40-meter noise wiping out FJ/OH2AM, so he switched to 10 meters to see if he could pinpoint the source with his beam. This was well after dark, and more than six hours after local sunset at 0632-0636z. He heard beacons from Kansas, Oklahoma and Missouri. W0ERE/B in Southwest Missouri was S9 from 5 watts into a vertical. This weekend is the Stew Perry Topband DX Challenge, an annual 160 meter CW operating event. The link, http://www.jzap.com/k7rat/stew.html given in the ARRL Contest Calendar doesn't seem to work early Friday morning, although it may be back by the time you read this. With no sunspots in sight, and quiet geomagnetic conditions, a long Winter's night is a great time for 160 meters. Try http://www.arrl.org/contests/months/dec.html for rules, or check out http://tinyurl.com/3dsltv and http://www.radio-sport.net/stew07_preview.htm for more details. Don't forget Straight Key Night on New Year's Eve. This runs from -2359z January 1, and is lots of fun, and a nice excuse to activate some old and classic manual keys. See, http://www.arrl.org/contests/rules/2008/skn.html for details. Next week in the first bulletin of the New Year we will review some of the numbers, including average sunspot numbers for the whole of 2007. If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, [EMAIL PROTECTED] For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/. Sunspot numbers for December 20 through 26 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 and 0 with a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 72.6, 71, 71.5, 71.4, 71.4, 72, and 72.6 with a mean of 71.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 11, 7, 6, 2, 2 and 2 with a mean of 6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 10, 9, 7, 4, 1, 2 and 1, with a mean of 4.9. /EX -- Archives http://www.mail-archive.com/dx-news@njdxa.org THE DXR is sponsored by the North Jersey DX Association. Please visit our website: http://www.njdxa.org/index.php To subscribe/unsubscribe, please send request to [EMAIL PROTECTED] and allow a few hours for acknowledgement --
