Re: [ECOLOG-L] Bayesian inference in ecology/biology
Hello Jorge, See also the special issue in Ecology Ecological Applications, 6(4), 1996, pp. 1036-1094 Ellison and Dixon make the case for Bayesian to (a) make better use of pre-existing data; (b) allow stronger conclusions to be drawn from large-scale experiments with few replicates; and (c) be more relevant to environmental decision-making. They clearly prefer evidence based priors (a, above). As to environmental decision making (c), that occurs in the policy arena, where it is up to us as scientists to make the best case on evidence. And insists on evidence, as in medical practice. Good luck, David S On 2018-09-10 21:07, David Schneider wrote: Hello Jorge, If you would like to look at an accessible text try: Bayesian Methods for Ecology Paperback – May 10 2007 by Michael A. McCarthy The Wikipedia entry has a number of errors, so not to be trusted. Speaking of being careful, there are no verifiable pictures of Thomas Bayes. The picture that is always shown is that of a cleric at a time similar to that to Bayes. Speaking of being careful, you have to be a *really astute* to find anything like "Bayes Theorem* in Bayes (+Price) article in 1763. Try reading it. For some background, a quick read: When did Bayesian inference become "Bayesian"? Stephen E. Feinberg Bayesian Analysis Volume 1, Number 1 (2006), 1-40. For a well informed and tongue in cheek example of Bayesian analysis, see: Stigler, Stephen M (1983). "Who Discovered Bayes' Theorem?". The American Statistician. 37 (4): 290–296. doi:10.1080/00031305.1983.10483122. In my experience Bayesian analysis makes sense with a monitoring program, where we have evidence based priors. In fisheries research we have annual surveys and we have *lots* of subjective priors to deal with, to which Bayesian has an answer. I think Bayesian makes sense in an activity such as NEON, National Ecological Observatory Network, where I did Bayesian workshop in R. The computational details require substantial computer resources (MCMC, look it up) to "burn in" the choice of distributional assumptions. The differences in opinion within the Bayesian camp can be as intense as the Fisher vs Neyman-Pearson wars in the frequentist camp in the last century. In the end though, the way we think, as humans, is Bayesian, working from subjective priors. The question is- what is the role of Bayesian thinking in science, a public activity. Good luck! David S On 2018-09-10 16:10, Jorge A. Santiago-Blay wrote: Bayesian inference in ecology/biology Dear Colleagues: I am looking for papers, book chapters, etc. on the subject of Bayesian inference in ecology/biology. I have found a few articles available on the web (and already ordered a few books) but they do not seem to provide an appropriate background for me (and I suspect for the students who want to learn more about it). If you have constructive suggestions, please send them directly to me at blayjo...@gmail.com Sincerely, Jorge P.S. Apologies for potential duplicate emails. Jorge A. Santiago-Blay, PhD blaypublishers.com [1] 1. Positive experiences for authors of papers published in _LEB_ http://blaypublishers.com/testimonials/ 2. Free examples of papers published in _LEB_: http://blaypublishers.com/category/previous-issues/ [2]. 3. _Guidelines for Authors_ and page charges of _LEB_: http://blaypublishers.com/archives/ [3] _._ 4. Want to subscribe to _LEB_? http://blaypublishers.com/subscriptions/ [4] http://blayjorge.wordpress.com/ http://paleobiology.si.edu/staff/individuals/santiagoblay.cfm Links: -- [1] http://blaypublishers.com [2] http://blaypublishers.com/category/previous-issues/ [3] http://blaypublishers.com/archives/ [4] http://blaypublishers.com/subscriptions/
Re: [ECOLOG-L] Bayesian inference in ecology/biology
Hello Jorge, If you would like to look at an accessible text try: Bayesian Methods for Ecology Paperback – May 10 2007 by Michael A. McCarthy The Wikipedia entry has a number of errors, so not to be trusted. Speaking of being careful, there are no verifiable pictures of Thomas Bayes. The picture that is always shown is that of a cleric at a time similar to that to Bayes. Speaking of being careful, you have to be a *really astute* to find anything like "Bayes Theorem* in Bayes (+Price) article in 1763. Try reading it. For some background, a quick read: When did Bayesian inference become "Bayesian"? Stephen E. Feinberg Bayesian Analysis Volume 1, Number 1 (2006), 1-40. For a well informed and tongue in cheek example of Bayesian analysis, see: Stigler, Stephen M (1983). "Who Discovered Bayes' Theorem?". The American Statistician. 37 (4): 290–296. doi:10.1080/00031305.1983.10483122. In my experience Bayesian analysis makes sense with a monitoring program, where we have evidence based priors. In fisheries research we have annual surveys and we have *lots* of subjective priors to deal with, to which Bayesian has an answer. I think Bayesian makes sense in an activity such as NEON, National Ecological Observatory Network, where I did Bayesian workshop in R. The computational details require substantial computer resources (MCMC, look it up) to "burn in" the choice of distributional assumptions. The differences in opinion within the Bayesian camp can be as intense as the Fisher vs Neyman-Pearson wars in the frequentist camp in the last century. In the end though, the way we think, as humans, is Bayesian, working from subjective priors. The question is- what is the role of Bayesian thinking in science, a public activity. Good luck! David S On 2018-09-10 16:10, Jorge A. Santiago-Blay wrote: Bayesian inference in ecology/biology Dear Colleagues: I am looking for papers, book chapters, etc. on the subject of Bayesian inference in ecology/biology. I have found a few articles available on the web (and already ordered a few books) but they do not seem to provide an appropriate background for me (and I suspect for the students who want to learn more about it). If you have constructive suggestions, please send them directly to me at blayjo...@gmail.com Sincerely, Jorge P.S. Apologies for potential duplicate emails. Jorge A. Santiago-Blay, PhD blaypublishers.com [1] 1. Positive experiences for authors of papers published in _LEB_ http://blaypublishers.com/testimonials/ 2. Free examples of papers published in _LEB_: http://blaypublishers.com/category/previous-issues/ [2]. 3. _Guidelines for Authors_ and page charges of _LEB_: http://blaypublishers.com/archives/ [3] _._ 4. Want to subscribe to _LEB_? http://blaypublishers.com/subscriptions/ [4] http://blayjorge.wordpress.com/ http://paleobiology.si.edu/staff/individuals/santiagoblay.cfm Links: -- [1] http://blaypublishers.com [2] http://blaypublishers.com/category/previous-issues/ [3] http://blaypublishers.com/archives/ [4] http://blaypublishers.com/subscriptions/
[ECOLOG-L] Bayesian inference in ecology/biology
Bayesian inference in ecology/biology Dear Colleagues: I am looking for papers, book chapters, etc. on the subject of Bayesian inference in ecology/biology. I have found a few articles available on the web (and already ordered a few books) but they do not seem to provide an appropriate background for me (and I suspect for the students who want to learn more about it). If you have constructive suggestions, please send them directly to me at blayjo...@gmail.com Sincerely, Jorge P.S. Apologies for potential duplicate emails. Jorge A. Santiago-Blay, PhD blaypublishers.com 1. Positive experiences for authors of papers published in *LEB* http://blaypublishers.com/testimonials/ 2. Free examples of papers published in *LEB*: http://blaypublishers.com/category/previous-issues/. 3. *Guidelines for Authors* and page charges of *LEB*: http://blaypublishers.com/archives/ *.* 4. Want to subscribe to *LEB*? http://blaypublishers.com/subscriptions/ http://blayjorge.wordpress.com/ http://paleobiology.si.edu/staff/individuals/santiagoblay.cfm
