MC:
We are either at or near the minimum of the sunspot cycle. Depending on
whose projections you believe, we're there right now, or will be there
within the next year. Since there is considerable weekly/monthly
fluctuation in sunspot activity it will not be until maybe two years from
now that the astronomers who do the curve fitting for Uncle Sam can look at
the data after the fact and point to a time that was the definitive minimum.
There are two practical effects of low sunspot activity. One is that the
Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUF) are low, and solar flare activity is
usually (but not always) low. The MUF is significant, because long distance
HF propagation tends to produce the strongest signal near the MUF. Above
the MUF, the band simply does not come open. Solar flare activity, and the
consequent geomagnetic activity, typically disrupts long distance HF
propagation, but will often cause unusual long distance openings on VHF.
What does that mean in answer to your question? Local 2-meter activity will
be unaffected by anything but extremely severe solar flare activity. Thus,
local 2-meter activity will be largely reliable. The relative paucity of
solar flares will also mean that long distance VHF modes like auroral
propagation will be fairly uncommon for the next few years.
For the next couple of years for long distance propagation at HF, 10 meters
will open only rarely. 15 meters will be mostly limited to afternoon
transequatorial openings. 20 meters will be open during the daytime, and
extending into the evening especially during the summer. 40 meters will
probably provide the most reliable long distance communication for the
longest periods (i.e., During the winter 40 will go dead to long distance
communications from about 9 am to 3 pm local time, but be open to DX the
rest of the time.). However, there will be times when the MUFs along
interesting paths will fall below 6 MHz, then 80 m will be the best bet.
Note that on the gray line (both stations on the day-night terminator)
brief openings on 80 or 40 meters can be remarkable.
Historically, the sunspot cycle follows a 22 year period, and within that
period there are two 11 year subcycles, one tending to have a weaker
sunspot maximum that the other. This also means that solar minima recur
about every 11 years. That means that conditions in 2016 should be a lot
like they are right now. In 2015, they should be far down the hill, but not
at rock bottom.
1991 seemed to be a relatively good solar maximum. Many hams with very
simple gear and antennas were working spectacular DX on 10 meters. I was
not active in the 2000-2 period, but I do not hear people telling war
stories about their amazingly spectacular operating feats during that time.
This is consistent with the historic pattern of a soso solar maximum
following a very good one.
This suggests that the next maximum, which should occur about 2011-2012,
will be better than the last one and should produce very consistent DX on
10 meters, and frequent openings on 6 meters.
73,
Steve
AA4AK
At 05:05 PM 10/15/2005 -0400, mc wrote:
In your opinion what's the best band at this solar period. I just read on
Discovery that we are at the peak about now and it will get to its best
until 2015
The 2 meter does not seen to be at risk,
MC-kb7dpc
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