Re: Are we entering a time of no more technological advances?

2023-01-06 Thread Brent Meeker 



On 1/6/2023 4:57 AM, John Clark wrote:
On Thu, Jan 5, 2023 at 2:30 PM spudboy100 via Everything List 
 wrote:


https://phys.org/news/2023-01-scientific-breakthroughs.html


/> Will AI ever come to the rescue or is there some
unanticipated physical limit on humanity's part?/



Although it's hard define an objective standard for such things I 
can't help but feel that society changed more between 1900 and 1950 
than between 1950 and 2000, that's because before 1900 we didn't know 
a lot about electricity so the common man saw few if any occasions of 
it being put into practical use; and before 1900 we didn't have a 
technological ability to mass produce light strong parts at an 
affordable price that had the precision needed for an internal 
combustion engine. History shows that when a breakthrough is made 
you'll get a huge change in the way we live with the rate gradually 
tapering off until the next breakthrough. Today 2 breakthroughs are 
clearly on the horizon, Nanotechnology and AI, and they have huge and 
possibly infinite potential because as Richard Feynman said "there's 
plenty of room at the bottom", and because there's no obvious limit on 
how smart something can be.


I think we're entering a time when more technical advances will be 
made but *NOT* by human beings and, depending on your perspective and 
that of the machines, AI will either come to our rescue or put 
scientists and engineers out of a job. There is a very good talk [the 
link is below] clearly making the case that Earth may be the only 
place in the observable universe where intelligent creatures evolved 
(intelligence being operationally defined as the ability to make a 
radio telescope). To some that may seem like a depressing conclusion 
but to me it is not because, despite looking for over half a century 
with ever larger and more sensitive telescopes, we have never seen 
even a hint of ET or his engineering and there are only 2 viable 
explanations for that:


*1)* For some unknown reason life is unable to make a significant 
impact on the universe.
*2) *The observable universe is finite so somebody has to be the 
first, and we are it.


I personally find the second possibility less depressing than the 
first, but your mileage may vary and there is no disputing matters of 
taste.


Or *3)* No industrialized civilization lasts very long.

Brent



Why we might be alone 



John K Clark    See what's on my new list at Extropolis 


84n


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Re: Are we entering a time of no more technological advances?

2023-01-06 Thread spudboy100 via Everything List 
OR, is the premise of the Physorg argument, inaccurate? 
Stumble Upon...




-Original Message-
From: spudboy100 via Everything List 
To: johnkcl...@gmail.com ; 
everything-list@googlegroups.com 
Sent: Fri, Jan 6, 2023 5:43 pm
Subject: Re: Are we entering a time of no more technological advances?

Quoting, Jeff Bezos professor, Gerard O'Neil at Princeton, "Scientists tend to 
overestimate the impact of breakthroughs, and underestimate the impact of 
straight forward extensions of the knowledge we already have." This may be 
where physicists have let us down in the sense of being eager beavers in 
establishing the maximal numbers of qubits with their research budgets, rather 
than emphasizing How many entanglements result in successful operations?  
Off-On, 1/0's, Yes/No and all that is digital. 
We may now be arriving at the phase where  4 out of 10K entanglements actually 
work and instead ensure that most do work.
That would then be the impact for all of us.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/01/06/1066317/whats-next-for-quantum-computing/


-Original Message-
From: John Clark 
To: everything-list@googlegroups.com
Sent: Fri, Jan 6, 2023 7:57 am
Subject: Re: Are we entering a time of no more technological advances?

On Thu, Jan 5, 2023 at 2:30 PM spudboy100 via Everything List 
 wrote:


 https://phys.org/news/2023-01-scientific-breakthroughs.html

> Will AI ever come to the rescue or is there some unanticipated physical limit 
> on humanity's part?


Although it's hard define an objective standard for such things I can't help 
but feel that society changed more between 1900 and 1950 than between 1950 and 
2000, that's because before 1900 we didn't know a lot about electricity so the 
common man saw few if any occasions of it being put into practical use; and 
before 1900 we didn't have a technological ability to mass produce light strong 
parts at an affordable price that had the precision needed for an internal 
combustion engine. History shows that when a breakthrough is made you'll get a 
huge change in the way we live with the rate gradually tapering off until the 
next breakthrough. Today 2 breakthroughs are clearly on the horizon, 
Nanotechnology and AI, and they have huge and possibly infinite potential 
because as Richard Feynman said "there's plenty of room at the bottom", and 
because there's no obvious limit on how smart something can be.  

I think we're entering a time when more technical advances will be made but NOT 
by human beings and, depending on your perspective and that of the machines, AI 
will either come to our rescue or put scientists and engineers out of a job. 
There is a very good talk [the link is below] clearly making the case that 
Earth may be the only place in the observable universe where intelligent 
creatures evolved (intelligence being operationally defined as the ability to 
make a radio telescope). To some that may seem like a depressing conclusion but 
to me it is not because, despite looking for over half a century with ever 
larger and more sensitive telescopes, we have never seen even a hint of ET or 
his engineering and there are only 2 viable explanations for that:  

1) For some unknown reason life is unable to make a significant impact on the 
universe. 2) The observable universe is finite so somebody has to be the first, 
and we are it. 
I personally find the second possibility less depressing than the first, but 
your mileage may vary and there is no disputing matters of taste.  
Why we might be alone
John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
84n

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Re: Are we entering a time of no more technological advances?

2023-01-06 Thread spudboy100 via Everything List 
Quoting, Jeff Bezos professor, Gerard O'Neil at Princeton, "Scientists tend to 
overestimate the impact of breakthroughs, and underestimate the impact of 
straight forward extensions of the knowledge we already have." This may be 
where physicists have let us down in the sense of being eager beavers in 
establishing the maximal numbers of qubits with their research budgets, rather 
than emphasizing How many entanglements result in successful operations?  
Off-On, 1/0's, Yes/No and all that is digital. 
We may now be arriving at the phase where  4 out of 10K entanglements actually 
work and instead ensure that most do work.
That would then be the impact for all of us.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/01/06/1066317/whats-next-for-quantum-computing/


-Original Message-
From: John Clark 
To: everything-list@googlegroups.com
Sent: Fri, Jan 6, 2023 7:57 am
Subject: Re: Are we entering a time of no more technological advances?

On Thu, Jan 5, 2023 at 2:30 PM spudboy100 via Everything List 
 wrote:


 https://phys.org/news/2023-01-scientific-breakthroughs.html

> Will AI ever come to the rescue or is there some unanticipated physical limit 
> on humanity's part?


Although it's hard define an objective standard for such things I can't help 
but feel that society changed more between 1900 and 1950 than between 1950 and 
2000, that's because before 1900 we didn't know a lot about electricity so the 
common man saw few if any occasions of it being put into practical use; and 
before 1900 we didn't have a technological ability to mass produce light strong 
parts at an affordable price that had the precision needed for an internal 
combustion engine. History shows that when a breakthrough is made you'll get a 
huge change in the way we live with the rate gradually tapering off until the 
next breakthrough. Today 2 breakthroughs are clearly on the horizon, 
Nanotechnology and AI, and they have huge and possibly infinite potential 
because as Richard Feynman said "there's plenty of room at the bottom", and 
because there's no obvious limit on how smart something can be.  

I think we're entering a time when more technical advances will be made but NOT 
by human beings and, depending on your perspective and that of the machines, AI 
will either come to our rescue or put scientists and engineers out of a job. 
There is a very good talk [the link is below] clearly making the case that 
Earth may be the only place in the observable universe where intelligent 
creatures evolved (intelligence being operationally defined as the ability to 
make a radio telescope). To some that may seem like a depressing conclusion but 
to me it is not because, despite looking for over half a century with ever 
larger and more sensitive telescopes, we have never seen even a hint of ET or 
his engineering and there are only 2 viable explanations for that:  

1) For some unknown reason life is unable to make a significant impact on the 
universe. 2) The observable universe is finite so somebody has to be the first, 
and we are it. 
I personally find the second possibility less depressing than the first, but 
your mileage may vary and there is no disputing matters of taste.  
Why we might be alone
John K Clark    See what's on my new list at  Extropolis
84n

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Re: Planets Aligning In Very Rare Event : it's important to acknowledge its meaning

2023-01-06 Thread spudboy100 via Everything List 
Meh! Let's see what happens during this grand alignment? If nothing is any 
worse, nor better than it's been over the last 100 years, then we can go back 
to whatever we were doing before. If it's Your Mathew 24 moment and "all knees 
shall bend, then you can celebrate. 


-Original Message-
From: Philip Benjamin 
To: Everything List 
Sent: Fri, Jan 6, 2023 10:46 am
Subject: Planets Aligning In Very Rare Event : it's important to acknowledge 
its meaning

 [Philip Benjamin]    So what? So many rare 
events, so many times!  Nothing of any concerns to any one. Philip Benjamin 
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/every-planet-in-the-solar-system-is-aligning-in-very-rare-event-this-is-what-it-means-for-you/ss-AA16191L?
    Every Planet In The Sol Aligning In Very Rare Event ar System Planets 
Aligning In Very Rare Event Is Aligning In Very Rare Event, This Is What It 
Means For You Just in time for a fresh start with the beginning of 2023, every 
planet in the sky is aligning in formation. The energy of Mercury, Venus, Mars, 
Jupiter, and Saturn is all coming together to a point where they can be 
observed with the naked eye in the night sky. Events like this are very rare, 
and the next one isn't till 2492. That's why it's important to acknowledge its 
meaning and take advantage of the energy shift for a powerful beginning of the 
new year. Here's what that means for you.    -- 
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Planets Aligning In Very Rare Event : it's important to acknowledge its meaning

2023-01-06 Thread Philip Benjamin 
[Philip Benjamin]
   So what? So many rare events, so many times!  Nothing of any concerns to any 
one.
Philip Benjamin
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/every-planet-in-the-solar-system-is-aligning-in-very-rare-event-this-is-what-it-means-for-you/ss-AA16191L?
Every Planet In The Sol Aligning In Very Rare Event ar System Planets 
Aligning In Very Rare Event Is Aligning In Very Rare Event, This Is What It 
Means For You
Just in time for a fresh start with the beginning of 2023, every planet in the 
sky is aligning in formation. The energy of Mercury, Venus, Mars, Jupiter, and 
Saturn is all coming together to a point where they can be observed with the 
naked eye in the night sky. Events like this are very rare, and the next one 
isn't till 2492.
That's why it's important to acknowledge its meaning and take advantage of the 
energy shift for a powerful beginning of the new year. Here's what that means 
for you.

-- 
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Re: Are we entering a time of no more technological advances?

2023-01-06 Thread John Clark 
On Thu, Jan 5, 2023 at 2:30 PM spudboy100 via Everything List <
everything-list@googlegroups.com> wrote:

https://phys.org/news/2023-01-scientific-breakthroughs.html
>
> *> Will AI ever come to the rescue or is there some unanticipated physical
> limit on humanity's part?*
>


Although it's hard define an objective standard for such things I can't
help but feel that society changed more between 1900 and 1950 than between
1950 and 2000, that's because before 1900 we didn't know a lot about
electricity so the common man saw few if any occasions of it being put into
practical use; and before 1900 we didn't have a technological ability to
mass produce light strong parts at an affordable price that had the
precision needed for an internal combustion engine. History shows that when
a breakthrough is made you'll get a huge change in the way we live with the
rate gradually tapering off until the next breakthrough. Today 2
breakthroughs are clearly on the horizon, Nanotechnology and AI, and they
have huge and possibly infinite potential because as Richard Feynman said
"there's plenty of room at the bottom", and because there's no obvious
limit on how smart something can be.

I think we're entering a time when more technical advances will be made but
*NOT* by human beings and, depending on your perspective and that of the
machines, AI will either come to our rescue or put scientists and engineers
out of a job. There is a very good talk [the link is below] clearly making
the case that Earth may be the only place in the observable universe where
intelligent creatures evolved (intelligence being operationally defined as
the ability to make a radio telescope). To some that may seem like a
depressing conclusion but to me it is not because, despite looking for over
half a century with ever larger and more sensitive telescopes, we have
never seen even a hint of ET or his engineering and there are only 2 viable
explanations for that:

*1)* For some unknown reason life is unable to make a significant impact on
the universe.
*2) *The observable universe is finite so somebody has to be the first, and
we are it.

I personally find the second possibility less depressing than the first,
but your mileage may vary and there is no disputing matters of taste.

Why we might be alone


John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

84n

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