Re: A prediction of an imminent Black Hole collision

2022-09-04 Thread Lawrence Crowell 
We are more likely to get better short wave gravitational wave modes from 
stellar mass black holes.

LC

On Saturday, September 3, 2022 at 9:47:46 PM UTC-5 meeke...@gmail.com wrote:

> It should be great chance to see if there are any second and higher order 
> distortion in black hole collisions.  We don't have exact solutions 
> describing black hole mergers, so we know they quickly settle down to 
> simple ellipsoids (the no-hair theorem) but I would be good to know our 
> approximate solutions haven't thrown away some short wave ripples.
>
> Brent
>
>
> On 9/3/2022 7:19 AM, John Clark wrote:
>
> A prediction has been made that 2 supermassive black holes in a galaxy 1.1 
> billion light years away will collide within the next 3 years. The galaxy 
> has a core that is extremely bright in optical, ultraviolet and x-rays and 
> the interesting thing is the intensity of the radiation fluctuates and the 
> period of the fluctuations has been shortening, just three years ago the 
> fluctuation was about one year long but today it's only about one month. 
> There could be several reasons for this but the most obvious one is that 2 
> supermassive black holes, each with about 100,000,000 solar masses, had an 
> orbital period of one year back in 2019 but an orbital period of only one 
> month today; if that is indeed the case then they are orbiting faster and 
> faster and thus getting closer and closer together and should collide 
> sometime within the next 3 years, perhaps even this year. Such a collision 
> would produce enormously powerful gravitational waves but LIGO will not be 
> able to see them because the longest frequency wave it can detect is about 
> a 10th of a second and colliding supermassive Black Holes would produce 
> gravitational waves with a period of hours or days; however such waves 
> might be detectable by observing simultaneous tiny changes in the frequency 
> of pulsars located in widely separated places; this is because the 
> gravitational waves would slightly move the Earth and thus slightly change 
> the observed frequency of the pulsars in a way that was consistent with 
> their location relative to us. 
>
> The great thing about this prediction is that we'll know if it's right or 
> wrong within the next 3 years.
>
> Tick-Tock: The Imminent Merger of a Supermassive Black Hole Binary 
> 
>
> John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis 
> 
> bb9
>
>
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>  
> 
> .
>
>
>

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Re: A prediction of an imminent Black Hole collision

2022-09-03 Thread Brent Meeker 
It should be great chance to see if there are any second and higher 
order distortion in black hole collisions.  We don't have exact 
solutions describing black hole mergers, so we know they quickly settle 
down to simple ellipsoids (the no-hair theorem) but I would be good to 
know our approximate solutions haven't thrown away some short wave ripples.


Brent

On 9/3/2022 7:19 AM, John Clark wrote:
A prediction has been made that 2 supermassive black holes in a galaxy 
1.1 billion light years away will collide within the next 3 years. The 
galaxy has a core that is extremely bright in optical, ultraviolet and 
x-rays and the interesting thing is the intensity of the radiation 
fluctuates and the period of the fluctuations has been shortening, 
just three years ago the fluctuation was about one year long but today 
it's only about one month. There could be several reasons for this but 
the most obvious one is that 2 supermassive black holes, each with 
about 100,000,000 solar masses, had an orbital period of one year back 
in 2019 but an orbital period of only one month today; if that is 
indeed the case then they are orbiting faster and faster and thus 
getting closer and closer together and should collide sometime within 
the next 3 years, perhaps even this year. Such a collision would 
produce enormously powerful gravitational waves but LIGO will not be 
able to see them because the longest frequency wave it can detect is 
about a 10th of a second and colliding supermassive Black Holes would 
produce gravitational waves with a period of hours or days; however 
such waves might be detectable by observing simultaneous tiny changes 
in the frequency of pulsars located in widely separated places; this 
is because the gravitational waves would slightly move the Earth and 
thus slightly change the observed frequency of the pulsars in a way 
that was consistent with their location relative to us.


The great thing about this prediction is that we'll know if it's right 
or wrong within the next 3 years.


Tick-Tock: The Imminent Merger of a Supermassive Black Hole Binary 



John K Clark    See what's on my new list at Extropolis 


bb9


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Re: A prediction of an imminent Black Hole collision

2022-09-03 Thread Lawrence Crowell 
It would be best if continual measurements of pulsar timing was made. A 
large wavelength gravitational wave, maybe millions of kilometers long, 
would result in a time dilation of measured pulsar timing as the 
gravitational wave passes the space between us and the pulsar.

LC

On Saturday, September 3, 2022 at 9:20:05 AM UTC-5 johnk...@gmail.com wrote:

> A prediction has been made that 2 supermassive black holes in a galaxy 1.1 
> billion light years away will collide within the next 3 years. The galaxy 
> has a core that is extremely bright in optical, ultraviolet and x-rays and 
> the interesting thing is the intensity of the radiation fluctuates and the 
> period of the fluctuations has been shortening, just three years ago the 
> fluctuation was about one year long but today it's only about one month. 
> There could be several reasons for this but the most obvious one is that 2 
> supermassive black holes, each with about 100,000,000 solar masses, had an 
> orbital period of one year back in 2019 but an orbital period of only one 
> month today; if that is indeed the case then they are orbiting faster and 
> faster and thus getting closer and closer together and should collide 
> sometime within the next 3 years, perhaps even this year. Such a collision 
> would produce enormously powerful gravitational waves but LIGO will not be 
> able to see them because the longest frequency wave it can detect is about 
> a 10th of a second and colliding supermassive Black Holes would produce 
> gravitational waves with a period of hours or days; however such waves 
> might be detectable by observing simultaneous tiny changes in the frequency 
> of pulsars located in widely separated places; this is because the 
> gravitational waves would slightly move the Earth and thus slightly change 
> the observed frequency of the pulsars in a way that was consistent with 
> their location relative to us.
>
> The great thing about this prediction is that we'll know if it's right or 
> wrong within the next 3 years.
>
> Tick-Tock: The Imminent Merger of a Supermassive Black Hole Binary 
> 
>
> John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis 
> 
> bb9
>
>
>

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