Re: The Shale unconventional oil play is just a bubble (and one that is about to burst) -- reserves have been wildly overstated.
On 5 April 2014 09:43, Stephen Paul King stephe...@provensecure.com wrote: Hear, Hear! Sadly, we (collectively speaking) keep buying the smooth talk and shiny baubles they promise and keep electing them. Trouble is they only give us a few choices (or only two if you don't have proportional representation). So it's a bit like Green Eggs and Ham... [image: Inline images 1] To oppose it we must think for ourselves. Form opinions from facts we collect and examine them to our best ability and collaborate with each other. It's hard work, very hard. Most people simply would rather be blissfully ignorant... Certainly it's hard work to overthrow tyrants (and even harder to install something better!) -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
Re: The Shale unconventional oil play is just a bubble (and one that is about to burst) -- reserves have been wildly overstated.
This article is packed full of falsehoods that a simple bit of research could correct. read http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shale As to its main point, all predictions are based on models. Models are never the real thing. Duh! So some expert has a wrong model. Big News! LOL. What is the point of making a big deal about this if not to spread uncertainty and doubt. Good job being an unpaid hack for oil future short sellers. On Thursday, April 3, 2014 3:16:35 PM UTC-4, cdemorsella wrote: This article from Bloomberg delves into some detail on how the unconventional oil sector is actually based on unreliable numbers -- with reserve estimates and production curves that have proven to have been wildly overstated -- to the point of criminal conspiracy to defraud investors (I would argue) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-03/old-math-casts-doubt-on-accuracy-of-oil-reserve-estimates.html Old Math Casts Doubt on Accuracy of Oil Reserve Estimates Jan Arps is the most influential oilman you’ve never heard of. In 1945, Arps, then a 33-year-old petroleum engineer for British-American Oil Producing Co., published a formula to predict how much crude a well will produce and when it will run dry. The Arps method has become one of the most widely used measures in the industry. Companies rely on it to predict the profitability of drilling, secure loans and report reserves to regulators. When Representative Ed Roycehttp://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Ed%20Roycesite=wnewsclient=wnewsproxystylesheet=wnewsoutput=xml_no_dtdie=UTF-8oe=UTF-8filter=pgetfields=wnnissort=date:D:S:d1partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYNDlr=-lang_ja, a California Republican, said at a March 26 hearing in Washington that the U.S. should start exporting its oil to undermine Russian influence, his forecast of “increasing U.S. energy production” can be traced back to Arps. The problem is the Arps equation has been twisted to apply to shale technology, which didn’t exist when Arps died in 1976. John Lee, a University of Houston engineering professor and an authority on estimating reserves, said billions of barrels of untapped shale oil in the U.S. are counted by companies relying on limited drilling history and tweaks to Arps’s formula that exaggerate future production. That casts doubt on how close the U.S. will get to energy independence, a goal that’s nearer than at any time since 1985, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. http://www.bloomberg.com/photo/oil-/-itgilbEjwUBA.htmlPhotographer: Ken James/Bloomberg To replace the Arps calculation, researchers are testing new formulas with names worthy... Read Morehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-03/old-math-casts-doubt-on-accuracy-of-oil-reserve-estimates.html# “Things could turn out more pessimistic than people project,” said Lee. “The long-term production of some of those oil-rich wells may be overstated.” Calculate Reserves Lee’s criticisms have opened a rift in the industry about how to measure the stores of crude trapped within rock formations thousands of feet below the earth’s surface. In a newsletter published this year by Houston-based Ryder Scott Co. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/0835143D:US, which helps drillers calculate reserves, Lee called for an industry conference to address what he said are inconsistent approaches. The Arps method is particularly open to abuse, he said. U.S. oil production has increased 40 percent since the end of 2011 as drillers target layers of oil-bearing rock such as the Bakken shale in North Dakota http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CROMND:IND, the Eagle Ford in Texas http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CROMTX:IND, and the Mississippi Lime in Kansas andOklahoma http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/CROMOK:IND, according to the EIA. The U.S. is on track to become the world’s largest oil producer by next year, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. A report from London-based consultants Wood Mackenzie said that by 2020 the Bakken’s output alone will be 1.7 million barrels a day, from 1.1 million now. http://www.bloomberg.com/photo/an-oil-drilling-rig-stands-in-north-dakota-/-ih0UDS7y0m40.htmlPhotographer: Matthew Staver/Bloomberg U.S. oil production has increased 40 percent since the end of 2011 as drillers target... Read Morehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-03/old-math-casts-doubt-on-accuracy-of-oil-reserve-estimates.html# U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell 41 cents to $99.21 a barrel at 10:10 a.m London time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It has risen 0.8 percent this year. Inherently Uncertain Predicting the future is an inherently uncertain business, and Arps’s method works as well as any other, said Scott Wilson, a senior vice president in Ryder Scott’s Denver office. “No one method does it right every time,” Wilson said. “Arps is just a tool. If you blame
RE: The Shale unconventional oil play is just a bubble (and one that is about to burst) -- reserves have been wildly overstated.
From: everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto:everything-list@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of LizR On 4 April 2014 08:16, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com wrote: This article from Bloomberg delves into some detail on how the unconventional oil sector is actually based on unreliable numbers -- with reserve estimates and production curves that have proven to have been wildly overstated -- to the point of criminal conspiracy to defraud investors (I would argue) Not to mention the rest of us. It's what you get when you have rule by the gangster psychopaths controlling the global corridors of power. As Bruno has pointed out it is the drug prohibition that has given these transnational crime families a real leg up in penetrating then controlling institution after institution. But then hasn't the whole of human written history been, by and large characterized by rule by psychopaths. One can also say that without the sheep there would be no wolves; it is the ease with which us humans are corralled into social herds; the predictable human nature and habit of obedience to authority that makes it possible for psychopaths to infiltrate organizations and take power over them (from within) and then leverage that organizational power to control vast human herds. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
Re: The Shale unconventional oil play is just a bubble (and one that is about to burst) -- reserves have been wildly overstated.
Hear, Hear! Sadly, we (collectively speaking) keep buying the smooth talk and shiny baubles they promise and keep electing them. To oppose it we must think for ourselves. Form opinions from facts we collect and examine them to our best ability and collaborate with each other. It's hard work, very hard. Most people simply would rather be blissfully ignorant... On Fri, Apr 4, 2014 at 4:09 PM, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.comwrote: *From:* everything-list@googlegroups.com [mailto: everything-list@googlegroups.com] *On Behalf Of *LizR On 4 April 2014 08:16, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com wrote: This article from Bloomberg delves into some detail on how the unconventional oil sector is actually based on unreliable numbers -- with reserve estimates and production curves that have proven to have been wildly overstated -- to the point of criminal conspiracy to defraud investors (I would argue) Not to mention the rest of us. It's what you get when you have rule by the gangster psychopaths controlling the global corridors of power. As Bruno has pointed out it is the drug prohibition that has given these transnational crime families a real leg up in penetrating then controlling institution after institution. But then hasn't the whole of human written history been, by and large characterized by rule by psychopaths. One can also say that without the sheep there would be no wolves; it is the ease with which us humans are corralled into social herds; the predictable human nature and habit of obedience to authority that makes it possible for psychopaths to infiltrate organizations and take power over them (from within) and then leverage that organizational power to control vast human herds. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to a topic in the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this topic, visit https://groups.google.com/d/topic/everything-list/-LyjqBLxxFY/unsubscribe. To unsubscribe from this group and all its topics, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout. -- Kindest Regards, Stephen Paul King Senior Researcher Mobile: (864) 567-3099 stephe...@provensecure.com http://www.provensecure.us/ This message (including any attachments) is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to which it is addressed, and may contain information that is non-public, proprietary, privileged, confidential and exempt from disclosure under applicable law or may be constituted as attorney work product. If you are not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any use, dissemination, distribution, or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this message in error, notify sender immediately and delete this message immediately. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
Re: The Shale unconventional oil play is just a bubble (and one that is about to burst) -- reserves have been wildly overstated.
This article from Bloomberg delves into some detail on how the unconventional oil sector is actually based on unreliable numbers -- with reserve estimates and production curves that have proven to have been wildly overstated -- to the point of criminal conspiracy to defraud investors (I would argue) http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-03/old-math-casts-doubt-on-accuracy-of-oil-reserve-estimates.html Old Math Casts Doubt on Accuracy of Oil Reserve Estimates Jan Arps is the most influential oilman you’ve never heard of. In 1945, Arps, then a 33-year-old petroleum engineer for British-American Oil Producing Co., published a formula to predict how much crude a well will produce and when it will run dry. The Arps method has become one of the most widely used measures in the industry. Companies rely on it to predict the profitability of drilling, secure loans and report reserves to regulators. When Representative Ed Royce, a California Republican, said at a March 26 hearing in Washington that the U.S. should start exporting its oil to undermine Russian influence, his forecast of “increasing U.S. energy production” can be traced back to Arps. The problem is the Arps equation has been twisted to apply to shale technology, which didn’t exist when Arps died in 1976. John Lee, a University of Houston engineering professor and an authority on estimating reserves, said billions of barrels of untapped shale oil in the U.S. are counted by companies relying on limited drilling history and tweaks to Arps’s formula that exaggerate future production. That casts doubt on how close the U.S. will get to energy independence, a goal that’s nearer than at any time since 1985, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.Photographer: Ken James/Bloomberg To replace the Arps calculation, researchers are testing new formulas with names worthy... Read More “Things could turn out more pessimistic than people project,” said Lee. “The long-term production of some of those oil-rich wells may be overstated.” Calculate Reserves Lee’s criticisms have opened a rift in the industry about how to measure the stores of crude trapped within rock formations thousands of feet below the earth’s surface. In a newsletter published this year by Houston-based Ryder Scott Co., which helps drillers calculate reserves, Lee called for an industry conference to address what he said are inconsistent approaches. The Arps method is particularly open to abuse, he said. U.S. oil production has increased 40 percent since the end of 2011 as drillers target layers of oil-bearing rock such as the Bakken shale in North Dakota, the Eagle Ford in Texas, and the Mississippi Lime in Kansas andOklahoma, according to the EIA. The U.S. is on track to become the world’s largest oil producer by next year, according to the Paris-based International Energy Agency. A report from London-based consultants Wood Mackenzie said that by 2020 the Bakken’s output alone will be 1.7 million barrels a day, from 1.1 million now.Photographer: Matthew Staver/Bloomberg U.S. oil production has increased 40 percent since the end of 2011 as drillers target... Read More U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell 41 cents to $99.21 a barrel at 10:10 a.m London time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It has risen 0.8 percent this year. Inherently Uncertain Predicting the future is an inherently uncertain business, and Arps’s method works as well as any other, said Scott Wilson, a senior vice president in Ryder Scott’s Denver office. “No one method does it right every time,” Wilson said. “Arps is just a tool. If you blame Arps because a forecast turns out to be wrong, that’s like blaming the gun for shooting somebody. As far as Arps being old, the wheel was invented a long time ago too but it still comes in handy.” Rising reserve estimates gives the U.S. a false sense of security, said Tad Patzek, chairman of the Department of Petroleum and Geosystems Engineering at the University of Texas at Austin. “We have deceived ourselves into thinking that since we have an infinite resource, we don’t need to worry,” Patzek said. “We are stumbling like blind people into a future which is not as pretty as we think.” The Arps formula is only as good as the assumptions a company puts into it, Patzek said. Estimates can be inflated when Arps is based on limited drilling history for data or on a few high-performing wells to predict performance across a wide swath of acreage. Forecasts can also be skewed higher by assuming slower production declines than Arps observed. Reserves Cut In November 2012, SandRidge Energy Inc. cut its reserve predictions to the equivalent of 422,000 barrels per well from 456,000. Five months later, the estimate was cut again, to 369,000 barrels, company records show. Oklahoma City-based SandRidge has since made an adjustment upward to 380,000 barrels per well. The early, more
Re: The Shale unconventional oil play is just a bubble (and one that is about to burst) -- reserves have been wildly overstated.
On 4 April 2014 08:16, Chris de Morsella cdemorse...@yahoo.com wrote: This article from Bloomberg delves into some detail on how the unconventional oil sector is actually based on unreliable numbers -- with reserve estimates and production curves that have proven to have been wildly overstated -- to the point of criminal conspiracy to defraud investors (I would argue) Not to mention the rest of us. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups Everything List group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to everything-list+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com. To post to this group, send email to everything-list@googlegroups.com. Visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/everything-list. For more options, visit https://groups.google.com/d/optout.
