[FRIAM] ** reminder today** Lecture Monday, August 13 10:30a: Rob Axtell - Informal Chat on Agent-Based Modeling and Generative Social Science
** reminder today ** ** note special day and time ** Robert Axtell External Faculty, Santa Fe Institute Professor, George Mason University, Krasnow Institute for Advanced Study, Krasnow Institute for Advanced Study TITLE: Informal Chat on Agent-Based Modeling and Generative Social Science TIME: Monday, August 13 10:30am *** note special day and time LOCATION: Redfish Conference Room, 624 Agua Fria Street, Santa Fe, NM ABSTRACT: Rob will discuss current research and have an open chat about ABM and generative social science. FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
Re: [FRIAM] Science and Action
David Breecker wrote: One of the key findings was that the way scientists tend to discuss issues like certainty, and their dialectical method of taking exception to perceived flaws in one another's work, has hampered our ability to convey the urgency of the climate change situation and the preponderance of (scientific) opinion and findings to the general public and policy makers. p57 and vicinity on incentives ring true. But you know, there are a lot of tenured university professors that will have their jobs pretty much no matter what they do. Some of them may not be even engaged in research, but still well aware of the issues from their teaching obligations. It seems to me University leadership could do more to draw these people out for local television news and newspapers. E.g. by giving big raises for public outreach and by giving them influence at the university. The public won't know and won't care whether or not such professors are leaders their fields or not.To the public, they are experts and authorities or else they wouldn't be professors. A lot of the other supposedly immutable `academic traditions' (cough) could be fixed with a wider range of funding opportunities. Of course if a researcher's career depends on the whims of just a few colleagues, they will become extremely cautious in keeping those colleagues happy. So give more people more options. Perhaps nothing will change at the tippy top of the ivory tower for elite researchers, but it doesn't have to. Marcus FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
Re: [FRIAM] Science and Action
Thanks David, Yes it has been a great discussion, but with little reference to science. For those of you interested in the scientific study of climate change and global warming here is the site of the IPCC: _http://www.ipcc.ch/_ (http://www.ipcc.ch/) and a Columbia study on ice melting: _http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/distro_Greenland_70730.pdf_ (http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/distro_Greenland_70730.pdf) cheers Paul ** Get a sneak peek of the all-new AOL at http://discover.aol.com/memed/aolcom30tour FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
[FRIAM] climate change science
FYI Paul Science 10 August 2007: Vol. 317. no. 5839, pp. 746 - 747 DOI: 10.1126/science.317.5839.746 News Focus CLIMATE CHANGE: Humans and Nature Duel Over the Next Decade's Climate Richard A. Kerr Rising greenhouse gases are changing global climate, but during the next few decades natural climate variations will have a say as well, so researchers are scrambling to factor them in (http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/317/5839/746/F1) CREDIT: JASON EDWARDS/NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC For a century or more, meteorologists have known the secret to weather forecasting: To glimpse tomorrow's weather, one must know today's. And lately they have realized that the same precept applies to predicting climate years or decades ahead. Stirrings in the North Atlantic Ocean today that have nothing to do with the strengthening greenhouse--just natural jostlings of the climate system--could lead to drought in Africa's Sahel in a decade or two, they recognized. Ignore today's ocean conditions, and your 2020 global-warming forecast could be a bust. And such natural variability can be far-reaching. In a recent study, researchers found that when the Atlantic Ocean swung from one state to another, it apparently helped trigger a decade-long climate shift in the late 1960s that sprang from the Atlantic and reached as far as Australia. But until now, climate forecasters who worry about what greenhouse gases could be doing to climate have ignored what's happening naturally. Most looked 100 years ahead, far enough so that they could safely ignore what's happening now. No more. In this week's issue, researchers take their first stab at forecasting climate a decade ahead with current conditions in mind. The result is a bit disquieting. Natural climate variability driven by the ocean appears to have held greenhouse warming at bay the past few years, but the warming, according to the forecast, should come roaring back before the end of the decade. This is a very valuable step forward, says meteorologist Rowan Sutton of the University of Reading, U.K. It's precisely on the decadal time scale and on regional scales that natural variability and anthropogenic effects have comparable magnitudes. So improved climate forecasting of the next few decades could help decision-makers focus on where and when the most severe climate change will be happening. Or, conversely, they could recognize when the looming threat of global warming will be masked--temporarily--by natural variability. Jiggly climate No one ever said Earth's atmosphere was a boring place. Air is in continually shifting motion, from the wafting of innumerable summer breezes to a few roaring jet streams. But forecasters have long recognized that certain parts of the chaotic atmosphere are better behaved than others. Over the North Atlantic, for example, atmospheric pressure over Iceland and Portugal tends to seesaw over the weeks and months, rising at one site while it falls at another. This North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in turn switches winds to and fro across the Atlantic, guiding storms into or away from western Europe. Other modes of natural variability--atmospheric jigglings that lack an external cause such as added greenhouse gases--tend to cause atmospheric reorganizations over the North Pacific and the high latitudes of both hemispheres. The tropical warmings and coolings of the El Niño-La Niña cycle can also hold sway in various regions around the globe. (http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/317/5839/746/F2) Better. A model starting from current conditions (white) came closer to reality (black) than one without (blue). SOURCE: D. M. SMITH ET AL./SCIENCE Once meteorologists recognized that natural variability offered hope of predicting out a few months, climate researchers began to see that the same or similar modes might improve forecasting a decade or more ahead. On a regional scale, the NAO seesaws over the decades as well. Its dramatic strengthening in winter between the 1960s and 1990s pumped extra heat into Northern Europe on top of greenhouse warming, according to a new analysis in press at the Journal of Geophysical Research by climate researcher David Parker of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research in Exeter, U.K., and his colleagues. On a broader scale, natural variability over decades is clearly rooted in the oceans. A warm-cool cycle that spans the Pacific, both North and South, has lately swung back and forth on a time scale of 30 to 50 years. By Parker and his colleagues' data and model analysis, this so-called Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation seems to be driven by interactions between the tropical ocean and atmosphere much like those that drive El Niño; the IPO could be the multidecadal expression of the El Niño cycle, they say. Over in the Atlantic, there's the Atlantic
Re: [FRIAM] Pascal's Wager and Global Warming
Nicholas Thompson wrote: The best argument for worrying about global warming presented so far in this interesting correspondence is the one that says it costs us relatively little to worry about it and and costs us LOT if we dont. Sort of like Pascal's argument for prayer, right? The consequences of not praying can't in principle be measured, at least in the sense of go to heaven or not.. But we can improve/disprove models for the consequences of global warming and its causes. There are measurable things.. FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
[FRIAM] Fwd: [ee-net] QUERY: Zambia/ Study on Economic Impacts of Climate Change/ Com...
Climate change and economic impacts. cheers Paul ** Get a sneak peek of the all-new AOL at http://discover.aol.com/memed/aolcom30tour ---BeginMessage--- Dear Colleagues, UNDP Zambia is working with the Government of Zambia through the Ministry of Tourism, Environment and Natural Resources in addressing climate change, which includes a national climate change awareness campaign. In a few weeks, the Ministry will also release the findings of the NAPA to the UNFCCC. UNDP Zambia and the Ministry are also planning to conduct a comprehensive analytical study on the Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Zambia to map out the effects on the economy as a whole, i.e. Zambia's GDP and more specifically the costs to different sectors, including agriculture, energy and water, natural resources, and health. The study will draw inspiration from the Stern http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_cl imate_change/stern_review_report.cfm Review and the IPCC Assessment http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/reports.htm Reports. Before we proceed, we would be very grateful for your comments on the attached http://stone.undp.org/system2/customtags/binarytemp/210340.7Economic%20Impa cts%20of%20Climate%20Change%20in%20Zambia.%20TOR.doc draft terms of reference. We will also appreciate receiving copies of terms of reference of similar studies done elsewhere. Kind regards, Carina Carina Kjelstad Programme Officer Energy and Environment Unit UN House P.O. Box 31966 Lusaka, Zambia tel.: +260 1 250800 fax: +260 1 253805 cell.: +260 (0) 978057313 visit us at: blocked::http://www.undp.org.zm/ www.undp.org.zm [Facilitator's Note: All attachments to this message can be found on the Practice Workspace at: http://stone.undp.org/system2/comp_stage/util/message.cfm?messageid_=210340 http://stone.undp.org/system2/comp_stage/util/message.cfm?messageid_=210340 src=121518 src=121518] image001.gif---End Message--- FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
Re: [FRIAM] Pascal's Wager and Global Warming
It's evidently a sign the whole thing is unimportant that people indulge in the luxury of abstract debate for making their decisions. If it were perceived as real, wouldn't we make decisions the normal way? Phil Henshaw .·´ ¯ `·. ~~~ 680 Ft. Washington Ave NY NY 10040 tel: 212-795-4844 e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] explorations: www.synapse9.com http://www.synapse9.com/ -Original Message- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of David Breecker Sent: Monday, August 13, 2007 6:37 PM To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]; The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Pascal's Wager and Global Warming Kant's Categorical Imperative is the only (I think) answer: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categorical_imperative http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categorical_imperative He defined an imperative as any proposition that declares a certain action (or inaction) to be http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logical_possibility necessary. A http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hypothetical_imperative hypothetical imperative would compel action in a given circumstance: If I wish to satisfy my thirst, then I must drink something. A categorical imperative would denote an absolute, unconditional requirement that exerts its authority in all circumstances, both required and justified as an end in itself. It is best known in its first formulation: Act only according to that maxim whereby you can at the same time will that it should become a universal law. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categorical_imperative#_note-Ellington [1] db On Aug 13, 2007, at 3:53 PM, Nicholas Thompson wrote: All, The best argument for worrying about global warming presented so far in this interesting correspondence is the one that says it costs us relatively little to worry about it and and costs us LOT if we dont. Sort of like Pascal's argument for prayer, right? I do worry about complexity thinking leading to fatalism. If a goddamned butterfly can cause a climate crash, why take responsibility for ANYTHING we do. We should all be dionysians. dba | David Breecker Associates, Inc. Santa Fe: 505-690-2335 Abiquiu: 505-685-4891 www.BreeckerAssociates.com FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
[FRIAM] Pascal's Wager and Kant's Categorical Imperative
David, Can you explain this relation a bit further. Sorry if I am being dim, but I did not quite understand your comment. Let's say we are on the QE2 which, for some reason is inclined to be a bit tippy. We notice that the passengers are gathering on the right side of the ship, which is OK so long as the water is calm, but would be disastrous if a storm came. We have no particular reason to believe that a storm is coming, except that half the meteorologists in the Captain's meteorological committee think that there is. You and I get together and decide that it would be a good idea for some of us to move over to the other side of the boat. Now, certainly this is not a CATEGORICAL imperative. I certainly cannot will that EVERYBODY go over to the other side of the boat. So what kind of an imperative is it. How is it possible for everybody to act so that the boat is in balance. This would have everybody constantly moving from one side of the boat to the other, like one of those models of neighborhood integration where either the neighborhood is unintegrated or everybody is unhappy. How DOES one square Kant with ABM's??? And what did it have to do with Pascal's Wager in the first place? Nick - Original Message - From: David Breecker To: [EMAIL PROTECTED];The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Sent: 8/13/2007 4:31:20 PM Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Pascal's Wager and Global Warming Kant's Categorical Imperative is the answer: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categorical_imperative He defined an imperative as any proposition that declares a certain action (or inaction) to be necessary. A hypothetical imperative would compel action in a given circumstance: If I wish to satisfy my thirst, then I must drink something. A categorical imperative would denote an absolute, unconditional requirement that exerts its authority in all circumstances, both required and justified as an end in itself. It is best known in its first formulation: Act only according to that maxim whereby you can at the same time will that it should become a universal law. [1] db On Aug 13, 2007, at 3:53 PM, Nicholas Thompson wrote: All, The best argument for worrying about global warming presented so far in this interesting correspondence is the one that says it costs us relatively little to worry about it and and costs us LOT if we dont. Sort of like Pascal's argument for prayer, right? Nicholas S. Thompson Research Associate, Redfish Group, Santa Fe, NM ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Professor of Psychology and Ethology, Clark University ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
Re: [FRIAM] Pascal's Wager and Kant's Categorical Imperative
Sorry Nick, I inadvertantly omitted your key question to which I was replying, which was: I do worry about complexity thinking leading to fatalism. If a goddamned butterfly can cause a climate crash, why take responsibility for ANYTHING we do. We should all be dionysians. I think Kant offers a solid explanation for why one should (must) act responsibly. At the very least, he's the only reason I vote in Presidential elections. More tomorrow if folks are still interested, when I'm less Dionysian and more sober-- I mean, Apollonian ;-) And BTW, I think the Pascal analogy is excellent, with due attention to Marcus' caveat about measurability. db On Aug 13, 2007, at 10:05 PM, Nicholas Thompson wrote: David, Can you explain this relation a bit further. Sorry if I am being dim, but I did not quite understand your comment. Let's say we are on the QE2 which, for some reason is inclined to be a bit tippy. We notice that the passengers are gathering on the right side of the ship, which is OK so long as the water is calm, but would be disastrous if a storm came. We have no particular reason to believe that a storm is coming, except that half the meteorologists in the Captain's meteorological committee think that there is. You and I get together and decide that it would be a good idea for some of us to move over to the other side of the boat. Now, certainly this is not a CATEGORICAL imperative. I certainly cannot will that EVERYBODY go over to the other side of the boat. So what kind of an imperative is it. How is it possible for everybody to act so that the boat is in balance. This would have everybody constantly moving from one side of the boat to the other, like one of those models of neighborhood integration where either the neighborhood is unintegrated or everybody is unhappy. How DOES one square Kant with ABM's??? And what did it have to do with Pascal's Wager in the first place? Nick - Original Message - From: David Breecker To: [EMAIL PROTECTED];The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group Sent: 8/13/2007 4:31:20 PM Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Pascal's Wager and Global Warming Kant's Categorical Imperative is the answer: http:// en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Categorical_imperative He defined an imperative as any proposition that declares a certain action (or inaction) to be necessary. A hypothetical imperative would compel action in a given circumstance: If I wish to satisfy my thirst, then I must drink something. A categorical imperative would denote an absolute, unconditional requirement that exerts its authority in all circumstances, both required and justified as an end in itself. It is best known in its first formulation: Act only according to that maxim whereby you can at the same time will that it should become a universal law. [1] db On Aug 13, 2007, at 3:53 PM, Nicholas Thompson wrote: All, The best argument for worrying about global warming presented so far in this interesting correspondence is the one that says it costs us relatively little to worry about it and and costs us LOT if we dont. Sort of like Pascal's argument for prayer, right? Nicholas S. Thompson Research Associate, Redfish Group, Santa Fe, NM ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) Professor of Psychology and Ethology, Clark University ([EMAIL PROTECTED]) FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org dba | David Breecker Associates, Inc. Santa Fe: 505-690-2335 Abiquiu: 505-685-4891 www.BreeckerAssociates.com FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
Re: [FRIAM] Pascal's Wager and Kant's Categorical Imperative
Nick, The good idea is a hypothetical imperative as it compels actions in a given circumstance (not all circumstances): if it will aid the boat's stability, I should move to the opposite side. If you want a categorical imperative that would be applicable, I'd suggest: I should not act like a twonk. This is something that is necessary and universal: not only do I not want to act like a twonk but I do not want anyone else to either (qv. http://www.bbcamerica.com/content/141/dictionary.jsp for translation) Most rules in ABMs are examples of hypothetical imperatives as they are usually contingent on the state of neighbours and the environment. Robert On 8/13/07, Nicholas Thompson [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: David, Can you explain this relation a bit further. Sorry if I am being dim, but I did not quite understand your comment. Let's say we are on the QE2 which, for some reason is inclined to be a bit tippy. We notice that the passengers are gathering on the right side of the ship, which is OK so long as the water is calm, but would be disastrous if a storm came. We have no particular reason to believe that a storm is coming, except that half the meteorologists in the Captain's meteorological committee think that there is. You and I get together and decide that it would be a good idea for some of us to move over to the other side of the boat. Now, certainly this is not a CATEGORICAL imperative. I certainly cannot will that EVERYBODY go over to the other side of the boat. So what kind of an imperative is it. How is it possible for everybody to act so that the boat is in balance. This would have everybody constantly moving from one side of the boat to the other, like one of those models of neighborhood integration where either the neighborhood is unintegrated or everybody is unhappy. How DOES one square Kant with ABM's??? And what did it have to do with Pascal's Wager in the first place? Nick FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
Re: [FRIAM] English and conservatism (was Edge: The Need for Heretics)
Glen - One of the necessary steps toward a useful dialect about anthropogenic climate change is: stop abusing English. I think you lead with your chin on this one... someone deliberately spoofing or lampooning you couldn't have picked a better mischoice of words in this context. Unless you are using the term dialect in a sense radically different than I am familiar with, I assume you meant dialog. I think Roger's original comment still holds: To paraphrase Roger: Both the global economy and ecology are complex dynamical systems which are likely to have unpredictable (and presumably unpleasant) responses to small perturbations. The same arguements often used by so-called conservatives to protect the economy from the perturbation of environmental regulations (interference) can as readily be applied in the protection of the ecology from the perturbation by continued profligate release of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the name of industry, commerce and progress. While my sympathies are generally aligned with the issues favored by Liberal or Progressive politics, I have very little use for most of the politicians wearing those colors on their sleeves (podiums?). I am still waiting for Al Gore to reconcile his support of lifting the 55mph speed limit with his profession of having been deeply aware of the problem of releasing so much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere through our extravagant use of fossil fuels. As much as I hated that nearly-arbitrary constraint on my desire do drive like a bat out of hell, I cannot imagine how lifting it did not increase our carbon footprint, as it were, significantly. If Gore is as scientific as he professes to be and as aware of and interested in preventing global warming as he seems to be, why in hell did he help increase our consumption of fossil fuels (and release of carbon dioxide) in highway transportation for personal and commercial use? It would be hard to convince me that increased average speeds *improve* fuel efficiency and even more significantly, that increased average speeds lead to fewer miles driven by private and commercial drivers. Surely there are estimates of miles driven and fuel consumed before and after that speed limit change. The point (as I remember it) was to stimulate our economy through increased efficiency in transportation. I think it worked, but Gore of all people should have known the cost in terms of carbon emmissions. Anyone know the numbers around this? Or any explanation Gore has given for these seemingly contradictory political positions? FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
