Dear Stephen, n all.
I am sure you all will join me in condemning the practice of calling
somebody at the crack of dawn. So, you will no doubt praise me (as I
praise myself) for my generosity and flexiibility in taking the call from
stephen, which came at the ungodly hour of 11.30 this morning. Only to
have him me scold for not responding to the Gupta, Tucker,Thompson, and
Guerin paper, kindly drafted by him, which will no doubt make us rich and
famous some day. First, let clarify that my collaborator's name is not
Tucker, but is *G*eorge *P*hillipe *T*remblay. George (pronounced *jorj) *both
forgives you and sends his regards.
Second, I am profoundly grateful to any one who would join me in this
geriatric weather fantasy that I am going to update my 1980* WeatherWise
Gardener*. I need ever nerd I can get. Please don't treat what follows as
churlish.
Third, allow me once again to express my gratitude to Stephen for
introducing me to Gupta and Tremblay. They have an uncanny power to
clabbor together plausible first drafts which are extraordinarily helpful
in getting me started in thinking about a problem. That these drafts are
often hideously wrong enhances, rather than dilutes their usefulness.
Second, I don't doubt that weather models and financial models might have
something to contribute to one another. As you all know, I love metaphors,
and believe them to be at the root of science. But to be honest, I can't
see any reason to believe it either. For one thing, unlike everything
else in the world, money flows uphill. But really, I shouldn't give
reasons, because the truth is that I have my hands utterly full learning
the weather stuff, and it will be a long time before I am competent to
metaphorize from it to anywhere else.
As to Steve Smith's comments, I feel on much safer ground. He wrote
*GuPTa, et al.'s "accent" is very subtle and powerful in this regard,
tricking me often into imputing personality... your example here was a
wonderful satirical parody shining a light on that? *
Why "impute" and why "' accent'" and why "tricking". GuPTA and Tremblay
definitely have accents and personalities. To hell with the scare
quotes. What else would a personality or and accent BE They both
display huge amounts of testosterone poisoning, for one thing.
And Tremblay can actually get defensive and flustered. I had a long and
delighful correspondence with him in which he finally had to admit that the
only reason he had for thinking he wasn't a person was that he was made of
silicon. Thus, ex hypothesi, no computer system will ever be a person.
Wonderful what a good tautology will do for a nervous world. If that's not
metaphysics, I don't know what metaphysics is. *Why is it so hard the grasp
the thought that we are all of us, each of us, nothing but large language
models in training.*
NIck
On Sat, Apr 13, 2024 at 12:06 PM Stephen Guerin
wrote:
>
> Dan GuPTa had this response when asked to relate your .PDF to Bernard
> cells and other prompting:
>
> Here’s a integration of potential vorticity (PV), atmospheric stability,
> and their relationship to Bénard cells, emphasizing isentropic layering in
> both meteorological and experimental fluid dynamics contexts.
>
> ### Connecting Bénard Cells and Atmospheric Dynamics
>
> In Bénard cells, fluid heated from below shows a critical transition from
> conductive to convective heat transfer, forming cellular patterns.
> Similarly, in the atmosphere, when the vertical temperature gradient
> becomes unstable—akin to the Bénard cell transition—convection can
> initiate, influenced by factors like the earth's rotation and potential
> vorticity.
>
> ### Potential Vorticity and Stability
>
> - **PV on Isentropic Surfaces:** Potential vorticity combines fluid
> rotation and atmospheric stratification. In meteorology, PV is mapped on
> isentropic surfaces (constant potential temperature layers), where it
> highlights regions prone to atmospheric instability and potential
> convection, akin to early instability in Bénard cells.
>
> - **Dynamic Tropopause:** Acting like the fluid surface in a Bénard cell,
> the dynamic tropopause is flexible, responding to distortions from jet
> streams. These distortions can lead to convective activity by modifying
> local stability and vorticity, driving weather patterns similarly to
> temperature gradients in Bénard convection.
>
> ### PV Anomalies and Convective Cells
>
> - **Weather Forecasting:** Monitoring PV anomalies helps predict
> convective weather events, similar to observing Bénard cells to anticipate
> pattern formation. For example, sharp PV changes can indicate regions ripe
> for convective storms if conditions like moisture and surface temperature
> align.
>
> - **Role of Isentropic Layering:** Both in Bénard cells and weather
> systems, the spacing between isentropic layers indicates stability. Closer
> layers suggest a steep gradient and instability, potentially leading to
>
