Re: [GKD] Training Y2K Specialists
Dear Henry:
If you have been following the answers, including your own, there does not
seem to be any pattern or truth to emerge out of my question. "Where is the
demand for trained people, given the urgency of the problem and the funds
projected to be spent?" Rather than the answers providing a conclusive
answer, the none answer that emerges from conflicting answers - is an answer
within itself. I would sum it up as - "we just don't know". I recently
received a copy of a Canadian Government Report that equates Y2K with the
1st and 2nd World Wars and the Great Depression as one of the defining
events of the century. This is definitely in the big leagues as problems
go.
And yet in reviewing those events mentally, one has to ask, are we in 1936
or 1939 and what is the equivalency of 1915, 1933 and 1942, that we are yet
to experience? The future is always murky. There are a billion plans going
on, from building a new house, to reforming Social Security to picking next
years vacation date. The fact that there has been a linearity for the last
50 years in which the appearance of predictability was our operating norm.
Perhaps we are at the edge of the whirlpool, about to start that great
centrigal movement that goes faster and faster and as we near the vortex, we
will be shot out into a future so different from all our current logics and
assurances that the differences are unthinkable.
When I think this way, I must ask; is Y2K the triggering event, the march
into Poland, or is the final piece of the puzzle, like the attack on Pearl
Harbour that completed the chessboard of World War 2. Our leaders ooze
complancey, don't worry, be happy, the final ballroom dance on the Titantic
is all glitter - when we appear the strongest, are we the most vulnerable?
Well, so much for doom and gloom reflections.
Respectfully,
Thomas Lunde
Subject: Re: [GKD] Training Y2K Specialists
Hi Thomas and all
Your apparent dilemma arises, in my humble opinion, out of a couple of
things:
- India has over the last 10 or so years, it may even be longer, set
itself up as a major exporter of code. During this time they have
built up a large core of very good programming skill who not only can
read programs specs but can also read write and test code.
- Other countries, SA, the USA, etc have a shortage of skills.
Systems are not always properly documented having been written over
a long period of time.
While many countries have large populations we have not, as a national
priority,
ensured that there is a large skills pool in the way that India, and
I think, Brazill have. In many cases free enterprise as ensured that
some kind of balance has existed between supply and demand.
Because its cheaper to import trained staff than to train them,
the USA has actively sort to recruit skiled staff from outside its
borders, as highlighted by its playing around with green card
quotas last year.
Interestingly enough though I had some correspondence with someone
from west Africa, I forget the state, who said they had many people
with computer skills but few jobs. Why are they not relocated? I
suspect because of language and background differences which make
them less usefull in a foreign country.
- Your analagy with the appliance repair business is a good one because
it serves to highlight the fact that untrained, in your case a year
if I read you correctly, technicians will take longer to ffind and
fix a problem.
We dont have time now to give people even a three month crash course
and let them learn on the job.
It is also true that a technician with documentation will be much
quicker and more certain, than one without.
Much of this code is old and the documentation dodgy in the extreme.
Hope this adds more to the debate.
Henry
"The old Chinese curse appears to be upon us,
we live in interesting times!"
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Re: [GKD] Training Y2K Specialists
Thomas: Reluctantly, I will allow this thread to get a little more lengthy as holding the previous posts in memory often helps understand the current answers/questions. At 03:48 AM 2/10/99 -0500, Thomas Lunde wrote: Now, assuming a shortage of qualified personnel, I would expect every training institute in the country to be offering courses in programming languages to get people up to speed to work on Y2K problems. As most of the work, I have read, requires no great programming skill, rather it is the reading of millions of lines of code looking for date sensitive code and then applying replacement code, it would seem to me that many people could be trained in a 3 month course to be a mini specialist in some aspect of a computer language. As I look at the ads of training schools, I do not see any offers for training to become a Y2K correction specialist and most courses in their outlines do not even mention the need to become expert in Y2K problems. Second question - what is going on in the training field to supply those capable enough to work on this problem. I would appreciate some thoughts on these questions. Thomas, -From: Abelito Tortuga Suizo [EMAIL PROTECTED] GKD] Training Y2K Specialists You assume correctly. There *is* a shortage of skills to address the Y2K problem. This has been an oft-repeated fact in many publications in the web and elsewhere (I'll have to scavenge my files if you really need refs). This shortage is very acute in Asia, which is what is worrying the advanced countries. This shortage, I believe, is artificial, because skilled Asians have moved to the advanced countries in response to the great demand in that part of the world. Thomas: Well, of course, if all those "Asian" personnel moved back to their home countries, then I assume there would be a manjor shortage in the United States. The question posed is not allocation, it is regarding the incongruency of up to a trillion dollars being budgeted for remedial work, which by it very nature (reading millions of lines of arcane computer language programs and making the appropriate changes) would seem to require massive numbers of people who are trained in those languages, and capable of making the appropriate changes. As we are down to the final 10 months before the event horizon smacks us in the face, I am trying to access whether there really is a problem or not by asking the obvious question - have we got the people to do the job and if so, how would that become apparent. Whatever the case, on the overall, the teachers left in training schools are those in the state-of-the-art hardware and software, areas which many would expect to be Y2K-safe. Understandably so, these schools would not be able to provide Y2K training courses since the veterans are already out there in the trenches. Thomas: Now this is really a worrisome statement. Even if we should need teachers, they are not available because they are focused on problems past the event horizon, the conclusion being that the Y2K event is already solved and the future is assured. If this is so, why can we not get definitive proof that this is so? Why are we still recieving many projections that the military, the energy sector, the transportation sector, the financial sector, etc still are not Y2K complaint? On the other hand, I would beg to disagree on your conception that there are what you termed "Y2K correction specialists." If you listen hard enough, the underpining feeling among Y2K remediators is still one of *doubt*. Truth is, no one is a Y2K expert since this is the first time we're facing this problem. Nobody in the Y2K business today can give a guarantee that their work will be fail-proof before, during and after the dreaded "event horizon." Ask them if they can tell what will exactly happen, and they will say, if they're honest enough, "I don't know." Now it seems to me that you are arguing from both sides of the problem. On the one hand, smile, be happy. On the other hand most of the "experts" just don't know. I'm sorry, I want a more conclusive answer than that for myself and my family. The best persons who can do Y2K risk assessment, contingency planning are those in the organization themselves. The "experts" can only help by asking us questions and allowing us to see other possibilities we may not have considered. Assumming that you have personnel within organizations who can handle the job, what happens to the work they are supposed to be doing but are not doing because they are busy handling Y2K? Or were they just there originally as sort of a corporate welfare for bright programmers? Now "risk assessment" and "contingency planning" are very fine skills, but then comes application and for that you need some guys to sit in front of terminals for months at a time, making corrections and hoping that they are not making the problem worse. I want to know
Re: [GKD] Training Y2K Specialists
Thomas, From the reading I've been doing I think that Y2K is a much more serious problem with respect to embedded systems than with respect to computers. Not to say it isn't a very big problem with computers. There is a very good article, long but not too technical, at http://www.tmn.com/~frautsch/y2k2.html From it I gleaned the following interesting points about embedded chips. Estimates of the number of embedded chips in service range from 25 - 50 BILLION. Only a small number, perhaps 1 per cent, will be affected by the y2k date rollover, those that have a timing function. Many people do not realize that almost all chips used to control timing have a built-in date function. Even though the chip may be controlling only a simple process such as: Event A ... 15 milliseconds ... Event B, it is counting off the days on its internal calendar. A chip's internal calendar may or may not be in sync with our calendar. The chips were usually given arbitary start up dates, something like the date manufacture of that model commenced, which could be something like Se;tember 9, 1984. When the chip is first powered up, it sets itself to that date. This means that there are three possibilities. The chip does have a date-monitoring function and was reset to synchronize with the calendar. These chips may fail at the rollover to the millennium. The usual example is the elevator which must be inspected every six months. On January 1, 2000 it will subtract a date such as 23/09/99 from 01/01/00 and get an error and shut itself down. The chip was kept continuously powered up but only its timing function was utilized. Take our example of a start date of 09/09/84. Just to make it complicated suppose it was a replacement part that was not taken off the shelf and powered up until November 5, 1987. Starting at that date, the chip will take 15 years and 101 days to reach 01/01/00, which will happen on February 14, 2002. The author of the article cited above says that he expects "y2k" events to go on happening until about 2006. The third possibility is that the chip is powered down from time to time, maybe frequently. That's why you don't have to worry about the chips in your car. You would have to run the car engine continously for years to cause a timing control chip to reach 01/01/00 on its internal calendar. Anyway, as a repairman, you would appreciate that checking out embedded systems would mean first learning from the schematics of a machine or an industrial process where chips with timing functions are located, having a skilled technician remove the part with the chip on it and test it for y2k compliance and replace it ... if there is a replacement. There is obviously no quick way to swell the ranks of y2k trouble shooters as far as embedded systems are concerned. In some cases, it is virtually impossible to access the chip. An example that I've seen more than once: apparently an offshore oil rig has ten of thousands of embedded chips, many of them located below the waterline and encased in concrete. Incredible as it seems, it will probably be cheaper just to let this multimillion dollar installation fail and build a new one rather than to fix the old one. By the way, just as a matter of curiosity, do new washing machines use chips to time the cycles or is it still just a mechanical timer? Live long and prosper Victor Milne FIGHT THE BASTARDS! An anti-neoconservative website at http://www3.sympatico.ca/pat-vic/pat-vic/ LONESOME ACRES RIDING STABLE at http://www3.sympatico.ca/pat-vic/ -Original Message- From: Thomas Lunde [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: Global List [EMAIL PROTECTED]; Future Work [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: February 18, 1999 8:03 AM Subject: Re: [GKD] Training Y2K Specialists -Original Message- From: Thomas Lunde [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: February 21, 1999 4:19 PM Subject: Re: [GKD] Training Y2K Specialists Dear Henry: Thanks for your in-depth response. I guess what I hear you saying is that Y2K personnel are highly specialized and that there is no army of unemployed that could be mobilized to provide manpower. Chris Reuss responded in another post: India has them, for instance. India is one of the main profiteers of the y2k business. According to the Indian association of software producers (Nasscom), India has y2k orders in the volume of more than 2 billion dollars, and demand is still bigger than supply. Thomas: Now these two answers neatly bracket my dilema. Henry is saying, as have others, it is tough to solve and requires a broad range of expertise and the side effects of mistakes may be just as bad as the original problem. On the other hand, I get, it's already taken care of, it's no big deal and by the way, we can send the problem offshore to India as they understand (apparently) all our languages and our networks and our business models better or at least as well as anyone in North America. Henry wrote: - t
Re: [GKD] Training Y2K Specialists
Thomas Lunde persisted: and for that you need some guys to sit in front of terminals for months at a time, making corrections and hoping that they are not making the problem worse. I want to know about those guys? Do we have them? India has them, for instance. India is one of the main profiteers of the y2k business. According to the Indian association of software producers (Nasscom), India has y2k orders in the volume of more than 2 billion dollars, and demand is still bigger than supply. Greetings, Chris
Re: [GKD] Training Y2K Specialists
Dear Sam: Thanks for the reply and websites. You will excuse my confusion in that when I went to these various addresses, I did not see even one request for an employee. In fact the only place there might have been some gold was at Y2K jobs and there was a place for employers to list jobs at $300 per listing and a place to post resumes, at $75 a pop - but I did not see one job listing or one resume. Instead, I got mostly the conventional pap we are reading all the time of which I have taken a few cut and pastes below to show you. http://www.year2000.com (quote from) "In 1997, 1998 most of IS will wake up and realize they need to increase staff by 30%, or some such number, over two years to complete the Year 2000 project. If we all require even a 10%-15% increase in skilled staff, supply cannot meet demand."* Thomas: This little gem using percentages gives no information. Until you tell me how many IT professionals there are, 30% or 10 - 15% more is meaningless information. As the dates are 97 - 98, it still leaves my question begging, where the hell are the ads for these personnel? http://www.itaa.org (quote from) 1999 National IT Workforce Convocation On April 12-13, 1999 in Austin, TX, hundreds of key practitioners in education, government, and industry will gather to gauge the nation's progress in dealing with the shortage of IT workers, highlight replicable programs that are expanding training recruitment opportunities, determine priorities for private sector government action and recognize excellence in innovative partnership Thomas: Now it would seem to me that a Convocation on April 12-13 is a pretty rediculous attempt to solve a problem that requires massive allocation of training, people and matching of skills and jobs. Perhaps, I am missing something, but it seems like the Officers of the Titanic are about to have a staff meeting after hitting the iceberg, but first they have serve tea. http://www.info2000.gc.ca/Welcome/Welcome.asp (quote from: Give your business a fully customized, hands-on assessment by one of our specially trained university or college students. He/she will go to your workplace, assess your computer system and software, and discuss ways that you can prepare your office for the Year 2000. Thomas: Gee, this is such a minute problem that we can take a University student away from his classes for a little part time work to solve your problems - I guess this is part of the 30% of personnel required that was alluded to in the first statement. http://www.can2k.com (quote from) of 200,000 COBOL programmers should be added to the existing pool (Under the assumption that 1999 would be used, for fire-fighting measures). Going by the Gartner estimates, the total cost to correct the entire COBOL code would be US $48-65 billion. All these only for COBOL. Add Assembler, PL/I, Pick, ... Thomas: Once again I see these astronomical projections for people and money and yet I cannot find one goddam ad for a Y2K personnel. Is this the biggest hoax since the tulip scandal in Holland or are we all in total denial and the Emperor really has no clothes on. I worry more about Western Civilization, the more I try and pin this problem down. Help me Please! -Original Message- From: Sam Lanfranco [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: February 12, 1999 7:42 PM Subject: Re: [GKD] Training Y2K Specialists Since a Canadian (Thomas Lunde), having taken a preliminary look at Canada, has asked: where are all the workers and where is all the training, to deal with Y2K testing and correction?, it is only fitting for another Canadian to answer. I will not comment on the magnitude of the problem, the extent of the hype, the level of awarness, or the overall adequacy of trained personnel. I will comment on the supply side. First, the market for such talent is not found in the newspapers - it is (no surprise) found on the internet. Makes sense. Second, there is lots going on. Enough? hard to say. In Canada, for insights into y2k approaches, and for insights, the rapid training of front line testing skills, small scale correction skills, etc. see: http://www.can2k.com http://www.strategis.ic.gc.ca http://www.info2000.gc.ca/Welcome/Welcome.asp http://www.itaa.org http://www.year2000.com and for a partnership between Canada and the U.S. state of Pennsylvania see: http://state.pa.us/Technology_Initiatives/year2000/ The Canadian Year2000 Workbook is available (in Canada) in English and in French. What is missing here is the political will (elsewhere) for a lot more strategic partnerships built on what has already been done in Canada and done between Canada and Pennsylvania. The doing isn't difficult. The deciding is. Sam Lanfranco Bellanet, Distributed Knowledge and York University
