Demographic Fatigue Overwhelming Third World Governments (fwd)
>X-Persona: >Return-Path: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >X-Authentication-Warning: emily.eou.edu: listserv set sender to owner-wfsf-l using -f >Date: Wed, 30 Sep 1998 06:29:29 -0300 (ADT) >From: Michael Gurstein <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >We ar interested in reprinting the article on dmeographic fatigue in the December issue of the WFSF Futures Bulletin. Whom do we contact for reprint permission? I take it the author of this article was Jay Hanson? Please reply before Nov. 20. Thank you. Jean Manayon Administrative and Editorial Officer To: "'wfsf list'" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Subject: Demographic Fatigue Overwhelming Third World Governments (fwd) >Sender: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > >--- >From: Jay Hanson <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >To: futurework <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >Subject: Demographic Fatigue Overwhelming Third World Governments > >HOLD FOR RELEASE >06:00 PM EDT >Saturday, September 26, 1998 > >Demographic Fatigue Overwhelming Third World Governments > >Many countries that have experienced rapid population growth for several >decades are showing signs of demographic fatigue, researchers at the >Worldwatch Institute, a Washington, DC-based environmental research >organization, announced today. > >Countries struggling with the simultaneous challenge of educating >growing numbers of children, creating jobs for swelling ranks of young >job seekers, and dealing with the environmental effects of population >growth, such as deforestation, soil erosion, and falling water tables, >are stretched to the limit. When a major new threat arises-such as AIDS >or aquifer depletion-governments often cannot cope. > >Problems routinely managed in industrial societies are becoming >full-scale humanitarian crises in many developing ones. As a result, >some developing countries with rapidly growing populations are headed >for population stability in a matter of years, not because of falling >birth rates, but because of rapidly rising death rates. > >"This reversal in the death rate trend marks a tragic new development in >world demography," said Lester Brown, President of Worldwatch and >co-author with Gary Gardner and Brian Halweil of Beyond Malthus: Sixteen >Dimensions of the Population Problem. In the absence of a concerted >effort by national governments and the international community to >quickly shift to smaller families, events in many countries could spiral >out of control, leading to spreading political instability and economic >decline, concludes the study funded by the David and Lucile Packard >Foundation. > >Marking the bicentennial of Thomas Malthus' legendary essay on the >tendency for population to grow more rapidly than the food supply, this >study chronicles the stakes in another half-century of massive >population growth. The United Nations projects world population to grow >from 6.1 billion in 2000 to 9.4 billion in 2050, with all of the >additional 3.3 billion coming in the developing countries. However, this >study raises doubts as to whether these projections will materialize. > >Today, two centuries after Malthus, we find ourselves in a >demographically divided world, one where national projections of >population growth vary more widely than at any time in history. In some >countries, population has stabilized or is declining; but in others, >population is projected to double or even triple before stabilizing. > >In 32 countries, containing 14 percent of world population, population >growth has stopped. By contrast, Ethiopia's population of 62 million is >projected to more than triple to 213 million in 2050. Pakistan will go >from 148 million to 357 million, surpassing the U.S. population before >2050. Nigeria, meanwhile, is projected to go from 122 million today to >339 million, giving it more people in 2050 than there were in all of >Africa in 1950. The largest absolute increase is anticipated for India, >which is projected to add another 600 million by 2050, thus overtaking >China as the most populous country. > >To understand these widely varying population growth rates among >countries, demographers use a three-stage model of how these rates >change over time as modernization proceeds. In the first stage, there >are high birth and high death rates, resulting in little or no >population growth. In the second stage, as modernization begins, death >rates fall while birth rates remain high, leading to rapid growth. In >the third stage, birth rates fall to a low level, balancing low death >rates and again leading to population stability, offering greater >possibilities for comfort and dignity than in stage one. It is assumed >that countries will move gradually from stage one to stage thre
Re: Demographic Fatigue Overwhelming Third World Governments
So the burden is again nicely appropriated on inept undemocratic national governments/elites/dictators/warlords living off the bribes/support of the west/multinationals and on women, instead of the underlying economic insanities that continuously take resourses and options away from people in the developing countries. You cannot educate people who haven't got enough food/water. -At the moment- it could be enough with a decent distribution system which needs a global overturn of the present way of doing it. No change no hope. Eva > HOLD FOR RELEASE > 06:00 PM EDT > Saturday, September 26, 1998 > > Demographic Fatigue Overwhelming Third World Governments > > Many countries that have experienced rapid population growth for several > decades are showing signs of demographic fatigue, researchers at the > Worldwatch Institute, a Washington, DC-based environmental research > organization, announced today. > > Countries struggling with the simultaneous challenge of educating > growing numbers of children, creating jobs for swelling ranks of young > job seekers, and dealing with the environmental effects of population > growth, such as deforestation, soil erosion, and falling water tables, > are stretched to the limit. When a major new threat arises-such as AIDS > or aquifer depletion-governments often cannot cope. > > Problems routinely managed in industrial societies are becoming > full-scale humanitarian crises in many developing ones. As a result, > some developing countries with rapidly growing populations are headed > for population stability in a matter of years, not because of falling > birth rates, but because of rapidly rising death rates. > > "This reversal in the death rate trend marks a tragic new development in > world demography," said Lester Brown, President of Worldwatch and > co-author with Gary Gardner and Brian Halweil of Beyond Malthus: Sixteen > Dimensions of the Population Problem. In the absence of a concerted > effort by national governments and the international community to > quickly shift to smaller families, events in many countries could spiral > out of control, leading to spreading political instability and economic > decline, concludes the study funded by the David and Lucile Packard > Foundation. > > Marking the bicentennial of Thomas Malthus' legendary essay on the > tendency for population to grow more rapidly than the food supply, this > study chronicles the stakes in another half-century of massive > population growth. The United Nations projects world population to grow > from 6.1 billion in 2000 to 9.4 billion in 2050, with all of the > additional 3.3 billion coming in the developing countries. However, this > study raises doubts as to whether these projections will materialize. > > Today, two centuries after Malthus, we find ourselves in a > demographically divided world, one where national projections of > population growth vary more widely than at any time in history. In some > countries, population has stabilized or is declining; but in others, > population is projected to double or even triple before stabilizing. > > In 32 countries, containing 14 percent of world population, population > growth has stopped. By contrast, Ethiopia's population of 62 million is > projected to more than triple to 213 million in 2050. Pakistan will go > from 148 million to 357 million, surpassing the U.S. population before > 2050. Nigeria, meanwhile, is projected to go from 122 million today to > 339 million, giving it more people in 2050 than there were in all of > Africa in 1950. The largest absolute increase is anticipated for India, > which is projected to add another 600 million by 2050, thus overtaking > China as the most populous country. > > To understand these widely varying population growth rates among > countries, demographers use a three-stage model of how these rates > change over time as modernization proceeds. In the first stage, there > are high birth and high death rates, resulting in little or no > population growth. In the second stage, as modernization begins, death > rates fall while birth rates remain high, leading to rapid growth. In > the third stage, birth rates fall to a low level, balancing low death > rates and again leading to population stability, offering greater > possibilities for comfort and dignity than in stage one. It is assumed > that countries will move gradually from stage one to stage three. Today > there are no countries in stage one; all are either in stage two or > stage three. However, this analysis concludes that instead of > progressing to stage three as expected, some countries are in fact > falling back into stage one as the historic fall in death rates is > reversed, leading the w
Demographic Fatigue Overwhelming Third World Governments
HOLD FOR RELEASE 06:00 PM EDT Saturday, September 26, 1998 Demographic Fatigue Overwhelming Third World Governments Many countries that have experienced rapid population growth for several decades are showing signs of demographic fatigue, researchers at the Worldwatch Institute, a Washington, DC-based environmental research organization, announced today. Countries struggling with the simultaneous challenge of educating growing numbers of children, creating jobs for swelling ranks of young job seekers, and dealing with the environmental effects of population growth, such as deforestation, soil erosion, and falling water tables, are stretched to the limit. When a major new threat arises-such as AIDS or aquifer depletion-governments often cannot cope. Problems routinely managed in industrial societies are becoming full-scale humanitarian crises in many developing ones. As a result, some developing countries with rapidly growing populations are headed for population stability in a matter of years, not because of falling birth rates, but because of rapidly rising death rates. "This reversal in the death rate trend marks a tragic new development in world demography," said Lester Brown, President of Worldwatch and co-author with Gary Gardner and Brian Halweil of Beyond Malthus: Sixteen Dimensions of the Population Problem. In the absence of a concerted effort by national governments and the international community to quickly shift to smaller families, events in many countries could spiral out of control, leading to spreading political instability and economic decline, concludes the study funded by the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. Marking the bicentennial of Thomas Malthus' legendary essay on the tendency for population to grow more rapidly than the food supply, this study chronicles the stakes in another half-century of massive population growth. The United Nations projects world population to grow from 6.1 billion in 2000 to 9.4 billion in 2050, with all of the additional 3.3 billion coming in the developing countries. However, this study raises doubts as to whether these projections will materialize. Today, two centuries after Malthus, we find ourselves in a demographically divided world, one where national projections of population growth vary more widely than at any time in history. In some countries, population has stabilized or is declining; but in others, population is projected to double or even triple before stabilizing. In 32 countries, containing 14 percent of world population, population growth has stopped. By contrast, Ethiopia's population of 62 million is projected to more than triple to 213 million in 2050. Pakistan will go from 148 million to 357 million, surpassing the U.S. population before 2050. Nigeria, meanwhile, is projected to go from 122 million today to 339 million, giving it more people in 2050 than there were in all of Africa in 1950. The largest absolute increase is anticipated for India, which is projected to add another 600 million by 2050, thus overtaking China as the most populous country. To understand these widely varying population growth rates among countries, demographers use a three-stage model of how these rates change over time as modernization proceeds. In the first stage, there are high birth and high death rates, resulting in little or no population growth. In the second stage, as modernization begins, death rates fall while birth rates remain high, leading to rapid growth. In the third stage, birth rates fall to a low level, balancing low death rates and again leading to population stability, offering greater possibilities for comfort and dignity than in stage one. It is assumed that countries will move gradually from stage one to stage three. Today there are no countries in stage one; all are either in stage two or stage three. However, this analysis concludes that instead of progressing to stage three as expected, some countries are in fact falling back into stage one as the historic fall in death rates is reversed, leading the world into a new demographic era. After several decades of rapid population growth, many societies are showing signs of demographic fatigue, a result of the struggle to deal with the multiple stresses caused by high fertility. As recent experience with AIDS in Africa shows, some countries in stage two are simply overwhelmed when a new threat appears. While industrial countries have held HIV infection rates among their adult populations under 1percent or less, a 1998 World Health Organization survey reports that in Zimbabwe, for example, 26 percent of the adult population is HIV positive. In Botswana it is 25 percent, Zambia 20 percent, Namibia 19 percent, and Swaziland 18 percent. Barring a miracle, these societies will lose one fifth or more of their adult population within the next decade from AIDS alone. These adult deaths, the deaths of infants infected with the virus, and high mortality among
