Re: New Y2K Computer Problem -- Time Dilation (fwd)

1999-03-10 Thread Eva Durant

I thought I'd better to send you
the follow-up (debunking?), too.
Eva



 From the Los Angeles Times
 Monday, February 22, 1999 
 
 The Y2K Bug Has Company in the Form of 'Time Dilation' Computers: Pair who
 stumbled on the odd phenomenon insist it's a legitimate concern. Others
 call their warnings a scare tactic.

This rubbish from Elchin and Crouch has been around for a while. Here are 
two of my messages to the Australian Computer Society's Y2K list:

24 February

 From Mike Echlin...
 
 Hi Carl,
 
 As you say its not easily replicated, and this is why a lot of people have
 wrtten it off, they tried a few times, didn't see it, so say, "not gonna
 hit me."
 
 But they are wrong,

Every year or two a rumour circulates that a time bomb virus is out 
there, set to go off on a certain date and do dreadful things. Each 
time this happens, "current affairs" programs find a few poor people 
who didn't take the precautions and had computer problems.

Warning!!! The PBhaha virus is set to come into operation on 
22/9/1999. This evil program hides itself on your computer (it cannot 
be detected by any anti-virus program) until it detects that the date 
has rolled to 22/9/1999. When it sees this date, it generates a 
random number and, based on the value returned, causes either your 
hard disk or the fan in your power supply to fail. If either of these 
things happen when you turn on your computer on that date you have 
probably become a victim. This is a hybrid virus and is equally likely 
to affect PCs running DOS or Windows (any flavour from 1.1 to 
2000), Macs, Linux boxes and HP network printers with hard disks. 
(A lot of Macs are immune to the fan problem, though.) Do not switch 
your machine on on that date unless you have adequate backups.

But seriously - a couple of dozen computers from the hundreds of 
millions out there exhibit some non-reproducible anomaly in the 
BIOS or RTC date and this guy reckons Armageddon is here. 
Where's the pattern? Where are the large number of machines from 
the same manufacturer which all exhibit the same symptoms and 
which do it every time the test is applied?

Time Dilation! More like "Brain Dilation". Perhaps we could call it 
"Brain Shrinkage, or "BS" for short.

Crouch's website looks like a definite Quintessence candidate.

===
5 March

I spend a lot of my time online with people who are fighting quack
medicine and other forms of ratbaggery such as those who claim paranormal
powers of various kinds or are aware of events occurring through Forces
Unknown To Science (FUTS). I was sceptical of Elchin and Crouch
immediately, simply because they exhibit all the hallmarks of the mad
scientist. Please note that scepticism does not mean immediate rejection,
only a desire for truth. Cold fusion was not rejected immediately even
though it looked highly probable that Fleischmann and Pons were either
mistaken or deluded.

It is classic quack or woowoo practice to quote slim anecdotal "evidence"
and then demand that everyone else prove the findings to be false. Leaving
aside the impossibility of proving a negative, the onus of proof has to be
on the claimant, and, as we say in the sceptic business, "extraordinary
claims require extraordinary proof".

Many of these mad claims can be ignored because they are either obviously
impossible (eg perpetual motion machines) or of no urgency. Unfortunately
this one addressed a real problem with real urgency. This meant that real
scientists had to spend real time and real money investigating the claims
of these fools, claims based on the fact that highly improbable random
events can happen. (The next time you hear of someone winning Lotto,
remember that the win was less probable than your Windows machine 
running for 1,000 years without a problem.)

The public have been scared silly by much of the talk about the Y2K
problem and are susceptible to almost any stupid claim of a solution (I
will talk about MFX2000 at another time). Like quack cancer cures or
stories about planetary alignment, these things bring false hope (or
fears) and demands for investigation. Like these other lunacies they waste
everyone's time when there are real problems to solve.


.
Peter Bowditch
[EMAIL PROTECTED] 
http://www.gebesse.com.au


- End of forwarded message from Peter Bowditch -



(Fwd) New Y2K Computer Problem -- Time Dilation (fwd)

1999-03-09 Thread Durant

some of you are interested in this stuff I think,
Eva

From the Los Angeles Times
Monday, February 22, 1999 

The Y2K Bug Has Company in the Form of 'Time Dilation' Computers: Pair who
stumbled on the odd phenomenon insist it's a legitimate concern. Others
call their warnings a scare tactic.

By ASHLEY DUNN, Times Staff Writer

Like many computer hobbyists, Jace Crouch, a professor of history
at Oakland University in Michigan, decided to test the waters of the year
2000 by turning the clocks on his computers to Dec. 31, 1999. 
To his relief, nothing happened. But within a few days, one of his
computers using an older Intel microprocessor began acting strangely,
jumping from January 2000 to December 2000.  In later tests, friends
and acquaintances from the comp.software.year-2000 Internet newsgroup
reported similar random jumps in time.
What Crouch had stumbled on was an odd computer phenomenon on the
fringes of the year 2000 issue that typifies the vague uncertainties about
the millennium bug. 
The phenomenon is known by the lofty name of "time dilation," or
the Crouch-Echlin Effect. The latter half of its name comes from the
Canadian programmer, Mike Echlin, who first came up with a theory about
its workings.
Unlike the basic Y2K problem, which is a simple, logical problem,
the Crouch-Echlin Effect stems from the interaction between some of the
most obscure and complicated components in a personal computer.
Simply stated, after Jan. 1, 2000, some personal computers will
suffer from erratic timekeeping. In extreme cases, Crouch and Echlin say,
it can lead to malfunctions, such as the inability of the computer to
recognize connected devices. 
The two discoverers believe this little gremlin largely affects
pre-Pentium computers that use antiquated internal clocks. They both
concede that it is a petty issue in the spectrum of Y2K problems.
After a year and a half of controversy, there is no conclusive
evidence that the Crouch-Echlin Effect is an identifiable computer malady.
But it has also defied all attempts to be dismissed or explained.
The uncertainty over its origins has forced some of the biggest
players in the computer industry to take on the issue. Intel Corp.,
Digital Equipment Corp., Compaq Computer Corp. and Symantec Corp. have all
done extensive testing for the effect, but have been unable to reproduce
it or figure it out.
Last year Compaq had to defend itself against a claim of false
advertising in Britain because it stated that its new computers were ready
for 2000. The complaint alleged that Compaq could not say its computers
were ready for 2000 because they could be vulnerable to the Crouch-Echlin
Effect.
The British Advertising Standards Authority eventually ruled in
Compaq's favor.
Tom Becker, president of RighTime Co., a Miami-based firm that
specializes in regulating PC clocks and one of the staunchest critics of
the Crouch-Echlin Effect, said he has gotten panicked calls from Exxon
Corp. and the Federal Reserve Board over the Crouch-Echlin Effect.
"This is a scare tactic," he said. "They're proposing this problem
is everywhere. It's just not possible. I'm telling you, this has wasted so
much energy."
As Daniel Leviton, software architect for Symantec's popular Y2K
tool, Norton 2000, said: "I put this in the same category as cold fusion."
The furor over the Crouch-Echlin Effect probably would have died
away long ago if not for an apparent confirmation in October from Digital
Equipment, which had been bought by Compaq a few months earlier. Digital
issued a statement supporting Crouch and Echlin's findings and offering to
sell its customers a time dilation diagnostic program.
The statement was recently replaced with a new message that the
company was unable to reproduce the effect and would no longer offer the
repair program. But the company's earlier findings have lent a validity to
Crouch and Echlin's claims that has stuck.
Mark Slotnick, who conducted the time dilation tests for Digital
and is now an independent Y2K consultant, said there is no real dispute
over the fact that some older computers can start up with erratic dates.
He tested nearly 100 computers and turned up two that did. He has received
numerous messages from computer users reporting similar problems. 
Slotnick said there are many routine reasons that a computer will
turn up a wrong date, such as a bad power supply or a weak clock battery.
"It does happen," he said. "The big debate is over why."
Since the first report of the effect in August 1997, there have
been several theories to explain the Crouch-Echlin Effect, variously
blaming the computer's real-time clock, Basic Input Output System, power
supply, device drivers and low batteries.
Echlin, a programmer of safety shutdown software for Atomic Energy
of Canada Ltd., a government-owned company that designs